Coronavirus

[Ghost Patrol]

So we are down to 3,300 cases. Better still, given these aren’t the risk, we are down to circa 1,700 (120 new cases by 14 days) spreaders.

Let’s see where we are at in 2 more weeks in terms of numbers.

The big question is how we open our borders in 12-18 months.

A ribbon cutting ceremony.

 

[kranky al]

Stop what you are doing: watch this video and share it

it could save your life:

 

[Hawk Dork]

Stop what you are doing: watch this video and share it

it could save your life:

 

[Power Raid]

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

View attachment 853549

What we are seeing is the natural response to restrictions on travel+no new cases/closure of cases from those who have returned to Australia with the virus.

This is an important graph showing rate in increase of community transmission withing Victoria and NSW, and worth noting, Victoria only slightly expanded testing criteria after these numbers, so expect a possible spike in the next few days:



There is real risk of a second wave, given some of these cases are directly related to contact with infected travellers. That mode of transmission will decline, but we still could see a purely locally driven outbreak. Thats why restrictions will need to remain in place until some period after we register the last new case AND testing criteria has been officially expanded to include all people showing symptoms.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Stop what you are doing: watch this video and share it

it could save your life:

The technique is useful, but the way Rowling describes it is not.

So this helps with getting sufficient oxygen into the lungs, if you have an obstructive pulmonary disease or pneumonia. However, it is not a treatment for pneumonia, nor COVID-19 induced SARS, nor does it prevent bacterial infection, the cause of secondary pneumonia, it just reduces the risk.

Yes, pulmonary complication is a risk for COVID-19 sufferers but the cause of mortality is more complicated. The virus causes a pro inflammatory response in endothelial and epithelial cells within the lungs. However, these cells are at a bio-molecular level more prone to excess production of the pro-inflammatory cytokine IL-6 and in the case of a SARS COV-2 infection, what is known as a cytokine storm, that results in a runaway pro inflammatory cascade, leading to organ shutdown. This is why people with chronic or acute disease of the heart, liver and kidney are at far higher risk of mortality. And why so many deaths are say the result of heart failure, where a preexisting heart condition provides a co-morbidity.

 

[kranky al]

The technique is useful, but the way Rowling describes it is not.

So this helps with getting sufficient oxygen into the lungs, if you have an obstructive pulmonary disease or pneumonia. However, it is not a treatment for pneumonia, nor COVID-19 induced SARS, nor does it prevent bacterial infection, the cause of secondary pneumonia, it just reduces the risk.

Yes, pulmonary complication is a risk for COVID-19 sufferers but the cause of mortality is more complicated. The virus causes a pro inflammatory response in endothelial and epithelial cells within the lungs. However, these cells are at a bio-molecular level more prone to excess production of the pro-inflammatory cytokine IL-6 and in the case of a SARS COV-2 infection, what is known as a cytokine storm, that results in a runaway pro inflammatory cascade, leading to organ shutdown. This is why people with chronic or acute disease of the heart, liver and kidney are at far higher risk of mortality. And why so many deaths are say the result of heart failure, where a preexisting heart condition provides a co-morbidity.

I watched the video - didnt pay any attention to what she said - she doesnt have a medical degree - ol mate does but.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

I watched the video - didnt pay any attention to what she said - she doesnt have a medical degree - ol mate does but.

Yeah, it was more for people who read her tweet and maybe were led to the misunderstanding.

Some of the youtube comments didnt seem very clear either.

Really, this technique just helps you breath more easily if you have a form of viral pneumonia and may help lung clearance, which can prevent a secondary infection, become secondary pneumonia. But if you have COVID, disease progression involves a number of factors and this wont prevent the need for intubation. Likewise, it is often organ failure as a result of a cytokine storm that kills people, but yes respiratory complications on their own can also be a source of mortality.

People being placed on a ventilator not only helps oxygenate the lungs when breathing becomes difficult unassisted, it is actually a method for alleviating hyper inflammatory response within lung tissue.

S justto clarify, I wasnt having a go, this is more just an opportunity to help people understand the virus and how it effects the body.

 

[Over The Post]

So as someone with really severe sleep apnoea who uses a CPAP machine...

I'm getting the impression that using the CPAP on a nightly basis could suppress the reduced lung function / anoxia symptoms of the virus, until it became incredibly serious and perhaps not treatable?

 

[Power Raid]

What we are seeing is the natural response to restrictions on travel+no new cases/closure of cases from those who have returned to Australia with the virus.

This is an important graph showing rate in increase of community transmission withing Victoria and NSW, and worth noting, Victoria only slightly expanded testing criteria after these numbers, so expect a possible spike in the next few days:

View attachment 853935

There is real risk of a second wave, given some of these cases are directly related to contact with infected travellers. That mode of transmission will decline, but we still could see a purely locally driven outbreak. Thats why restrictions will need to remain in place until some period after we register the last new case AND testing criteria has been officially expanded to include all people showing symptoms.

whatever happens, I feel society will turn against the government within 30 days if isolation/ shut down continues

it will also be interesting to see long term whether we had it right or sweden did

 

[Ned_Flanders]

whatever happens, I feel society will turn against the government within 30 days if isolation/ shut down continues

it will also be interesting to see long term whether we had it right or sweden did

Swedes lost 114 just today (591 total from 7500 odd infected). They are in some trouble right now

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

whatever happens, I feel society will turn against the government within 30 days if isolation/ shut down continues

it will also be interesting to see long term whether we had it right or sweden did

Sweden is reversing its position, expects strict quarantines of Stockholm and surrounds.

I also think people can live with stringent social distancing for 30 days, or 180, given the very clear alternative.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

So as someone with really severe sleep apnoea who uses a CPAP machine...

I'm getting the impression that using the CPAP on a nightly basis could suppress the reduced lung function / anoxia symptoms of the virus, until it became incredibly serious and perhaps not treatable?

Probably not.

It helps you maintain a normal level of oxygen saturation, by providing an artificial positive airway pressure whilst you sleep to counterbalance either depressed inspiratory effort/CO2 response or airway obstruction.

People with apnoea do have increased risk of poor outcomes due to pneumonia, so in that sense the mask may help. But not as a general treatment for patients to alleviate symptoms. And you have to remember, use of a CPAP machine can increase risk of secondary infection. That is why people on ventilators are placed into induced comas. Intubation is invasive and requires regular tending/replacement of tubes etc. In the same way your mask, tube and machine can become a host for both bacteria and viral infected droplets.

But there is a world of difference between the actual mechanisms by which the two work. Ventilators are a mode of assisted breathing, a tube is inserted all the way down to the branch point of the trachea and a machine literally pumps air into the lungs to control both inspiratory and expiratory efforts.

CPAP just uses mild positive airway pressure to help you breath a little easier.

 

[Over The Post]

Remind me to clean it more often then...

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Remind me to clean it more often then...

Please do.

 

[kranky al]

Probably not.

It helps you maintain a normal level of oxygen saturation, by providing an artificial positive airway pressure whilst you sleep to counterbalance either depressed inspiratory effort/CO2 response or airway obstruction.

People with apnoea do have increased risk of poor outcomes due to pneumonia, so in that sense the mask may help. But not as a general treatment for patients to alleviate symptoms. And you have to remember, use of a CPAP machine can increase risk of secondary infection. That is why people on ventilators are placed into induced comas. Intubation is invasive and requires regular tending/replacement of tubes etc. In the same way your mask, tube and machine can become a host for both bacteria and viral infected droplets.

But there is a world of difference between the actual mechanisms by which the two work. Ventilators are a mode of assisted breathing, a tube is inserted all the way down to the branch point of the trachea and a machine literally pumps air into the lungs to control both inspiratory and expiratory efforts.

CPAP just uses mild positive airway pressure to help you breath a little easier.

Seeing some steering away from intubation in some doctors accounts coming out of the us.

the death rate once intubated is horrific. The suggestion is that intubation is further damaging already damaged lungs - these doctors are suggesting sticking with cpap and using other methods to keep 02 up.

 

[Juddism]

interesting, when I had pneumonia (unknown cause) in Dec the one thing that really helped was exercise and doing the 1000 steps at FTG, I felt less congested because I had to take deep breaths to go up at a steady pace. I am eaglerly awaiting an antibody test.

 

[Over The Post]

You got off lightly, when I had pneumonia I was in hospital for a week and shuffling to the entrance and back again was exhausting.

 

[Patrick Bullet]

whatever happens, I feel society will turn against the government within 30 days if isolation/ shut down continues

it will also be interesting to see long term whether we had it right or sweden did

It would be helpful for reviewing this question if you (or anybody really) could lay out some criteria/set down the goalposts otherwise, later on, people can just choose whatever criteria they like to fit the narrative they want.

What are the "KPIs" we should use to judge who had it right? Total deaths? Unemployment rates? Time until economy reaches Jan 2020 size again? Til til budget surplus/debts paid back?

Also, what do you mean by long-term? Three months? Six months? A year? 5 years? It's probably fine to use different timeframes for the different KPIs, but it's important to lay them out now otherwise, again, people will pick their own after the fact.

 

[Power Raid]

It would be helpful for reviewing this question if you (or anybody really) could lay out some criteria/set down the goalposts otherwise, later on, people can just choose whatever criteria they like to fit the narrative they want.

What are the "KPIs" we should use to judge who had it right? Total deaths? Unemployment rates? Time until economy reaches Jan 2020 size again? Til til budget surplus/debts paid back?

Also, what do you mean by long-term? Three months? Six months? A year? 5 years? It's probably fine to use different timeframes for the different KPIs, but it's important to lay them out now otherwise, again, people will pick their own after the fact.

you're right on just about every front

in terms of time I would suggest long term is 18 months, 3 years and 5 years. 18 months as this is the likely time frame for vaccination or the virus disappears naturally, 3 and 5 years for consolidation of economic recovery post virus.

The KPIs will be many fold including but not limited to economic, social, medical and legal.

Medical - deaths is one measure but scrapping back deaths under the age of 70 and no health issue prior is probably more meaningful. All lives are important from a social point of view but the death of the dying is not relevant for a medical review. This is consistent with how we record influenza deaths.

variances in deaths due to suicide, from steady state, is another.


Economic - unemployment comes and goes, so I wouldn't use that short term KPI. Bankruptcy, insolvency and home dispossession are life changing. So the variance here is relevant.

The big one will be the national and state debts. It is difficult to clearly measure as this can only be the variance due to corona, which will be blurred with ordinary poor budget management.


Social and legal - again difficult to measure but the loss of legal freedoms is one to watch.


The reality though, is part of the reason why we will need to look back in time, as most of us including the government don't have all the information yet to know what is the best course of action. This means outcomes are not known and thus how can you definitively set KPIs without knowing what you are seeking to monitor.

The obvious big variable is, is a vaccine coming, will it be effective, how long before it arrives and will we give it to poor nations? Overseas travel is unlikely to be possible ever if the answer is no to any of those questions. That's why I'm not so quick to sink the boot into Sweden as yet.

 

[kranky al]

you're right on just about every front

in terms of time I would suggest long term is 18 months, 3 years and 5 years. 18 months as this is the likely time frame for vaccination or the virus disappears naturally, 3 and 5 years for consolidation of economic recovery post virus.

The KPIs will be many fold including but not limited to economic, social, medical and legal.

Medical - deaths is one measure but scrapping back deaths under the age of 70 and no health issue prior is probably more meaningful. All lives are important from a social point of view but the death of the dying is not relevant for a medical review. This is consistent with how we record influenza deaths.

variances in deaths due to suicide, from steady state, is another.


Economic - unemployment comes and goes, so I wouldn't use that short term KPI. Bankruptcy, insolvency and home dispossession are life changing. So the variance here is relevant.

The big one will be the national and state debts. It is difficult to clearly measure as this can only be the variance due to corona, which will be blurred with ordinary poor budget management.


Social and legal - again difficult to measure but the loss of legal freedoms is one to watch.


The reality though, is part of the reason why we will need to look back in time, as most of us including the government don't have all the information yet to know what is the best course of action. This means outcomes are not known and thus how can you definitively set KPIs without knowing what you are seeking to monitor.

The obvious big variable is, is a vaccine coming, will it be effective, how long before it arrives and will we give it to poor nations? Overseas travel is unlikely to be possible ever if the answer is no to any of those questions. That's why I'm not so quick to sink the boot into Sweden as yet.

Id suggest not giving it to poor nations would be a terrible false economy that would have this shitty virus mutating and coming back every winter - f-that

Do it once and do it properly

 

[Power Raid]

language starting to change today from "oh my god" to "corona is a very mild virus for most". Sounds like the government is preparing the population.

 

[kranky al]

language starting to change today from "oh my god" to "corona is a very mild virus for most". Sounds like the government is preparing the population.

The cmo has been pretty staunch in his flat refusal that the government will pursue a herd immunity stratagem.

obvs the ipa would just have those people die that will and onward with making money

thing is the liberals largest voting demographic are the ones most likely to die from this.....

 

[Number37]

The cmo has been pretty staunch in his flat refusal that the government will pursue a herd immunity stratagem.

obvs the ipa would just have those people die that will and onward with making money

thing is the liberals largest voting demographic are the ones most likely to die from this.....

The CMO said today that you won't be seeing music festivals and the like for the foreseeable future.

Doesn't sound like herd immunity strategy to me.

 

[kranky al]

The CMO said today that you won't be seeing music festivals and the like for the foreseeable future.

Doesn't sound like herd immunity strategy to me.

We have the ability as an Isolated island to eliminate, get back to work and just keep the virus out via 14 day quarantining.

wait it out till theres a vaccine.

9 of our top 10 exports dont require travel....