Racing Cox Plate

[iluvparis]

NO chance. Worse version and by worse version i mean far worse version of Lohnro that only gets a mile against anything good. IF by some miracle there was an actual flood. By flood i don't mean rain but god himself dumped the red sea on Mooney Valley and the track was a heavy 10 where 80% of the runners plug in that type of ground then sure he might win past a mile against good opposition.

Will get beat another 7 lengths again and that's if he's going as well as last year.

Yeah has only won a Kingston Town, Bart Cummings, Ranvet, and BMW at 2400m + in Australia - what a squib

 

[iluvparis]

View attachment 770184

https://beteasy.com.au/sports-betting/enhanced-odds/horse-racing/cox-plate-odds-climb

35mins left.

$1 - maximum stake exceeded

 

[iluvparis]

Is there any market anyone’s aware of about first local home?

The two up top in betting - the 3yo and Mystic Journey I cant see finishing first 5 so there’s likely value out there should such a market exist

Lads - Homesman looks a cracking bet in this market - saver on Avi

 

[Veer Right]

Yeah has only won a Kingston Town, Bart Cummings, Ranvet, and BMW at 2400m + in Australia - what a squib

beating who exactly and in what ground?

edit: Ok i'll look myself this should be hillarious

 

[HeathySure]

Will this field also include Who Shot the Barman

thats hartnells nemisis

 

[HeathySure]

beating who exactly and in what ground?

edit: Ok i'll look myself this should be hillarious

finally someone on the punters board who has a clue!

 

[Veer Right]

Avilius

Kingston Town - rolls Brimham Rocks and I am Serious. Funnily enough Testashadow and Big Duke close up.
Bart Cummings - rolls Jaameh and Yogi a 1 1/2 mile average handicapper and a 3 miler. Whoa!
Ranvet - rolls Hes Eminent and Danzedanzedanze
BMW - rolls the mighty Big Duke and Rondinella. Could you find any worse two scrubbers? Rondinella couldn't run down Spanish Reef in mares grade ffs!

I'll be serious Paris and say good to luck to you if you put money on him but to me he is absolute trash at this level being tomorrows race.

 

[iluvparis]

Avilius

Kingston Town - rolls Brimham Rocks and I am Serious. Funnily enough Testashadow and Big Duke close up.
Bart Cummings - rolls Jaameh and Yogi a 1 1/2 mile average handicapper and a 3 miler. Whoa!
Ranvet - rolls Hes Eminent and Danzedanzedanze
BMW - rolls the mighty Big Duke and Rondinella. Could you find any worse two scrubbers? Rondinella couldn't run down Spanish Reef in mares grade ffs!

I'll be serious Paris and say good to luck to you if you put money on him but to me he is absolute trash at this level being tomorrows race.

Please name all the immortals of the turf any of the locals in this field have beaten over 2000m


....crickets

 

[HeathySure]

Avilius

Kingston Town - rolls Brimham Rocks and I am Serious. Funnily enough Testashadow and Big Duke close up.
Bart Cummings - rolls Jaameh and Yogi a 1 1/2 mile average handicapper and a 3 miler. Whoa!
Ranvet - rolls Hes Eminent and Danzedanzedanze
BMW - rolls the mighty Big Duke and Rondinella. Could you find any worse two scrubbers? Rondinella couldn't run down Spanish Reef in mares grade ffs!

I'll be serious Paris and say good to luck to you if you put money on him but to me he is absolute trash at this level being tomorrows race.

ive already shown a replay of last years Cox plate. Just got past Rostropovich after it was slaughtered and he had the perfect run in a battle for 6th. Its a glorified handicapper

 

[HeathySure]

Please name all the immortals of the turf any of the locals in this field have beaten over 2000m


....crickets

well all of them have beaten AVilius... except Castlevecchio.. that will be rectified tomorrow

 

[iluvparis]

well all of them have beaten AVilius... except Castlevecchio.. that will be rectified tomorrow

I must have missed Mystic Journey beating Avi over 2000m - was that when she was getting rolled by a half dead KWD and CC handicappers?

 

[Veer Right]

I must have missed Mystic Journey beating Avi over 2000m - was that when she was getting rolled by a half dead KWD and CC handicappers?

Form out of KWD race has already stacked up in the Caulfield Cup. Vow and Declare who followed KWD was dropped when the latter let down. I could definately make a case that KWD could have beaten Mer De Glace but we will never know. In any case the form from the Turnball is as good as any in the country for this race.

I guess you will say thats a handicap race yet KWD has proven himself at this level with a close up third to Winx at 2000 before he broke down.

No reason Mystic Journey can't beat the aussies home.

 

[iluvparis]

Form out of KWD race has already stacked up in the Caulfield Cup. Vow and Declare who followed KWD was dropped when the latter let down. I could definately make a case that KWD could have beaten Mer De Glace but we will never know. In any case the form from the Turnball is as good as any in the country for this race.

I guess you will say thats a handicap race yet KWD has proven himself at this level with a close up third to Winx at 2000 before he broke down.

No reason Mystic Journey can't beat the aussies home.

I know - and even a first up half fit Avi beat KWD handily over a trip far too short for him - glad to have you on board

And if you think KWD was a chance of beating MDG last Saturday (looooooooooooooooooooooooooooool) it probably explains why you are tipping MJ over Avi

The Turnbull form was good for a handicap - it won't be for the Cox Plate - unless you'd be backing Finche or V&D here

 

[Veer Right]

I know - and even a first up half fit Avi beat KWD handily over a trip far too short for him - glad to have you on board

And if you think KWD was a chance of beating MDG last Saturday (looooooooooooooooooooooooooooool) it probably explains why you are tipping MJ over Avi

The Turnbull form was good for a handicap - it won't be for the Cox Plate - unless you'd be backing Finche or V&D here

Where KWD was first up for 10 months after he nearly died, copped a severe check in the home straight and ran fifth behind Avilius who ran fourth. The thing is i'm not knocking Avilius over 1400m i know that's his distance.

 

[iluvparis]

If you believe that then your logic is sound. I personally think there is zero chance 1400 is his best distance.

 

[ShaunWDT]

If you believe that then your logic is sound. I personally think there is zero chance 1400 is his best distance.

Im far from Avi's biggest fan but 1400 his best? Lol....

 

[plays tall 1]

Not sure what Avilius’s best trip is, and nor are Godolphin. Hence the run in the Melbourne Cup last year. Seems impossible he goes there this year but don’t discount anything with Cummings - can certainly blow up a futures bet.

His price tomorrow is much more sensible than last start. He hasn’t proven himself to be a dominant WFA middle distance horse, yet he was priced as if he had last start. Most of his victories have come against absolute B-graders. We’ll know more tomorrow afternoon.

 

[iluvparis]

A fair defense. The point i am trying to get across is I think he is a touch of overs is that none of the locals have wins over A graders. And the locals shorter in the market certainly don’t.

 

[Temploar]

I have an opinion that Te Akau Shark has the most upside of all the runners. Bar the jap one who I admit have not seen run.

It's a shame it's the valley, and Shark has drawn #18. Still ive only got one bet tomorrow and it's him. Just hoping there's a bit of speed up front, else no chance.

I think he will improve with the extra distance, could have seen him beat Kolding in the Epsom provided he wasn't 3 wide the trip.

Yes I know I've just stated a lot of variables, but I like horses with obvious upside.

We haven't seen the best of this horse yet.

Will be an interesting race regardless. I will have to be pretty lucky but the horse has ability unlike some of the plodders in this race.

Opie Bosson back on board too. I'm sure all he's hoping is that he's not caught last on the turn.

Wouldn't be surprised if the fav rolls them all though judging by reading this thread.

 

[mcnulty]

Fast and firm last night (also seemed to get more leaderish as the night wore on). Even if they get the max rain forecast rain it’ll only hold that.

Expect the money to come for the Japanese mare.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Sometimes you see a betting market and scratch your head. I've looked at this a number of times but for the life of me cannot see how Mystic Journey is on the second line at $7.
Couldn't get past Gatting in the Craiglee, unplaced in the Turnbull (Looks like Elvis finished alongside it) and has never won over the distance.
That's simply not a Cox Plate winning profile.
I rate about 7-8 rivals ahead of it.

 

[Gavin Excell]

I have an opinion that Te Akau Shark has the most upside of all the runners. Bar the jap one who I admit have not seen run.

It's a shame it's the valley, and Shark has drawn #18. Still ive only got one bet tomorrow and it's him. Just hoping there's a bit of speed up front, else no chance.

I think he will improve with the extra distance, could have seen him beat Kolding in the Epsom provided he wasn't 3 wide the trip.

Yes I know I've just stated a lot of variables, but I like horses with obvious upside.

We haven't seen the best of this horse yet.

Will be an interesting race regardless. I will have to be pretty lucky but the horse has ability unlike some of the plodders in this race.

Opie Bosson back on board too. I'm sure all he's hoping is that he's not caught last on the turn.

Wouldn't be surprised if the fav rolls them all though judging by reading this thread.

If history is a guide Epsom milers rarely are up to Cox Plate level (Winx the exception)

 

[Gavin Excell]

Kings Will Dream in doubt
Humidor on stand by

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Kings Will Dream in doubt
Humidor on stand by

Gee makes the MV cup even weaker
If HH gets up deductions are going to butt **** me without lube

 

[Viva la Mattner]

I rate it today

LG

MW

TAS/KLUGER

MJ/DANCETERIA/AVI

in saying that have it as a standout trifecta with LG and all the others in for 2nd and 3rd