Other Critical Analysis of 4th Downs

[iluvparis]

Ben Baldwin is an economist, writer for The Athletic and one of the more prominent NFL Analytics Twitter members

That list is from his 4th down decision website, which is explained in this article

NFL fourth-down aggressiveness

Our numbers guru creates our own fourth-down model and explains where the numbers come from.

theathletic.com

There are a number of sites which provide win probabilities, but a number of them are slightly different from each other - ESPNs one is far from infallible, as that screenshot aussiedude has posted from a CFB game involving UCLA attests to. #3 appears to be another where his 4th down calculator is taking the results of the punt into the calculation (which seems stupid)

On that basis should the Broncos have punted to kick off that Superbowl when pey pey coughed up a Saftey?

 

[exe ex machina]

 

[exe ex machina]

Why Kevin Kelley's no-punt approach would work in major college football

Kevin Kelley never punts, he attempts on-side kicks and he scores lots of points. It worked in high school and now it's working in the FCS, but could it work in major college football?

247sports.com

Why Kevin Kelley's no-punt approach would work in major college football

BRANDON MARCELLO
Sep 9

Kevin Kelley has the data and the results to show his never-punt approach works, and it doesn’t matter what level of football you coach.

The longtime high school coach at Pulaski Academy in Little Rock moved up to the collegiate level in the summer, and though the sample size at his new gig is only one game, it appears he is again on course to set records and bring success to yet another small school with his data-driven philosophy. He needed only 60 minutes Saturday to rewrite the NCAA record book as quarterback Ren Hefley threw 10 touchdowns, an FCS record, in Presbyterian College’s 84-43 victory against St. Andrews, an NAIA school.

Kelley’s numbers-based coaching style is based on one simple philosophy: increasing possessions increases the opportunity for victory. To do that, his teams rarely punt and always attempt onside kicks if the game is within three touchdowns. They also often attempt 2-point conversions.

Perhaps Clemson could learn a thing or two from the small school in Clinton, South Carolina. While Presbyterian was breaking the scoreboard Saturday afternoon, two college football heavyweights failed to score an offensive touchdown just up the road in Charlotte. Georgia needed an interception return to knock off Clemson 10-3 in a top-5 showdown.

“I hate to say it because Clemson is the best, they’re always good, I think they would have done better on offense (with my philosophy),” Kelley said. “But I get it. That’s not for everybody.”

Understand, Kelley hasn’t reinvented the wheel. After all, he has the data to back him up. He’s just doing what so many others, in their gut, believe is too risky and are too afraid to adopt. Coaches might say they use analytics to form game plans, but they usually fall back into what is comfortable on game day: emotionally-charged conservative decisions.

In a lot of ways, Kelley is a man of football science rather than football faith. His colleagues marvel and applaud his approach (even Bill Belichick consults with Kelley), but athletic directors have rarely knocked on his door. Presbyterian took that chance in the summer.

“When you look at his winning percentage, at 88%, I don't know that it's a big chance to take,” said Rob Acampaignero, athletics director at Presbyterian College. “Football is football, it doesn't matter what level you're playing, and in the Pioneer Football League, where none of the programs are scholarship programs, I felt like it was an even level playing field for everybody.”

Kelley won nine state titles, including four straight, at Pulaski Academy, where he won 88% of his games despite leading an undermanned and undersized roster during his career. PA played a national schedule against opponents with 4- and 5-star college prospects, and in an era of 300-pound linemen, Kelley’s team was almost always smaller than their opponents. His team won a fourth straight title (the first by any school in Arkansas since 1989) with only four players weighing over 200 pounds last season.

His philosophy is the great equalizer against the bigger and better teams.

“Let’s say it’s an eight-possession game,” Kelley said. “Your team scores 50% of the time, they score 33%. I’m gonna score four TDs, you’re gonna score three. But random fumbles happen, a penalty brings back a touchdown. Now we have a tie game. Expand it to a 16-possession game. I score eight touchdowns, you score six. Now that random turnover doesn’t matter as much and I have some cushion.”

Kelley is also different from his peers with his offensive philosophy. The offensive play-caller’s playbook isn’t necessarily thick, but his checks from the sideline are endless. Sometimes he needs just one word to change the entire layout of a play, sending an outside receiver underneath a safety as the inside receiver attacks and draws a linebacker's attention away from the designated pass-catcher. He adjust plays (mostly routes) after defenses show their hand with their alignment. The open-ended system allows for multiple tweaks, some resulting in new plays the offense has never run before in practices.

“You can design a play in the moment by calling certain things out that you've never run in practice ever,” he said. “But then you have to trust your guys to understand the concept of what you're doing. But, again, you teach them those concepts in practices and they've got a better chance to get it right. But the beauty of that is, you've got an answer for everything.”

On Saturday, the Blue Hose ran a flea-flicker screen that they practiced only once in early August. They fumbled, but it didn’t bother Kelley. He still had numbers on his side.

All told, Presbyterian attempted 11 onside kicks and recovered one (the opening kickoff) against St. Andrews. They were 4 of 5 on fourth-down conversions and attempted six 2-point plays (three conversions). Quarterbacks combined to throw 12 touchdowns and 18 players caught at least one pass, including a pair of 100-yard receivers. Hefley completed 38 of 50 passes for 538 yards and 10 touchdowns with no interceptions.

Some teams have decided to adopt the philosophy, but only wit half-measures. Seeing the need to play catch-up, even St. Andrews joined the party with onside kicks and fourth-down attempts (4 of 6 conversions).

“I’m not sure people really understand all the numbers behind it,” Hefley said. “The way coach Kelley does that you're not really playing the aggregate if you onside kick when you feel like it and kick it deep when you feel like it. I mean, you’re not gaining a statistical advantage.”

Even Kelley’s practices hardly resemble a typical practice. Nearly every drill is 11-on-11. There is no tackling, no whistles and they hardly wear pads. They focus on extra-point kicks only five to 10 minutes each week. “You’re going to make 99% of those whether you practice it or not,” he explained.

They do not work on technique. There are no blocking, tackling or turnover drills and receivers are not asked to work with cones.

“Everybody in football is working on blocking and tackling and I don’t think anybody is gonna be a lot better than the other team unless you have dominant, physical guys,” Kelley said. “Tackling depends on who’s running the ball. I mean, if Barry Sanders is running the ball, nobody is a good tackler.”

Heck, even footwork drills for quarterbacks are non-existent.

“One day he noticed a problem with my footwork and he just told me to go home and work on it in the mirror,” Hefley said.

What Kelley does spend time on at practice is something that might seem blasphemous to those in his line of work. He asks quarterbacks to throw off their back foot and at odd angles when the need arises. After all, it’s going to happen in a game, so why not be good at it?

“Every person that's on an NFL team as a quarterback has the physical tools. They can all stay in there with no rush and throw a perfect spiral and throw it to a spot and it looks beautiful and all that. But that's not what quarterbacking is,” Kelley said. “Quarterbacking is being able to stand there with a world crashing down around you and guys trying to kill you and you've made a great identity of the defense, the coverage, where the ball probably should go before the ball is snapped. But after the ball is snapped and those guys are coming and trying to kill you, you’re making the right read and throwing the ball on time within probably a tenth of a second to a window that may or may not be there a tenth of a second late. What I think people miss out on is a really good quarterback coach that can get that kid or that player to do that within a tenth of a second.”

Film study of opponents is more like watching a quick YouTube tutorial. They don’t spend hours every week breaking down film of opponents. Kelley explains base fronts, provides pictures of defensive alignments and informs players how he might adjust plays based on those looks. The majority of the time is instead spent watching film of Kelley’s offense.

The approach is tied to Sun-Tzu’s “Art of War,” Kelley says.

“Those skilled at making the enemy move do so by creating a situation to which he must conform; they entice him with something he is certain to take, and with lures of ostensible profit they await him in strength.”

The roster at Presbyterian was unable to meet as an entire team until Aug. 6 because players are not required to be on campus until the fall. Some did not enjoy the changes being made to the program.

“These guys thought I was crazy,” Kelley said. “They fought me on it, so they would run the wrong way in practice and not admit it was a mistake because, you know, the male ego. They would just say this offense sucks, it’s not going to work.”

Today? Well, many are believers after that record-breaking performance, which drew the attention of the country and was featured on ESPN.

Kelley is confident his team could score against a full-scholarship team in the FBS. By the end of this season — when the Blue Hose have more than 25 practices under their belt — perhaps they could beat a lower-level team in the FBS, he said.

The success over the last decade does make one wonder about the future. If Kelley's crazy approach can work against bigger and better teams as a coach at a small high school and small college, why can’t this no-punt system work in major college football? Kelley believes it can and will — some day. He told The Athletic in the spring he would be willing to take over Kansas’ football program with a salary of only $90,000 per win. He still believes he could win at least five games at Kansas this fall.

“I hate to say it, but I absolutely do (believe it). Yeah,” Kelley said. “I believe in the things I believe in. You can be more efficient, you can spend your time in other areas. Offensive play calling, play design and teaching — those three together — are the great equalizer.”