Draft Watcher Davo-27's 2018 AFL Draft Watch

[Davo-27]

so pick 53.....

in the last 5 years my club hates the draft

so top 10 guesstimate

1. Carlton - Sam Walsh
2. GCS - Jack Lukosius
3. GCS - Connor Rozee
4. StK - Max King
5. Port Adel - Izak Rankine
6. Syd(bid) - Nick Blakey
7. GCS - Ben King
8. Western - Bailey Smith
9. Adelaide - Jackson Hately
10. NM(bid) - Tarryn Thomas

 

[Sandy Day]

Over tha past few years the draft has ceased at around mid 70. Do you think it will go deeper this year? What do you think Davo

 

[Peel67skin]

so pick 53.....

in the last 5 years my club hates the draft

so top 10 guesstimate

1. Carlton - Sam Walsh
2. GCS - Jack Lukosius
3. GCS - Connor Rozee
4. StK - Max King
5. Port Adel - Izak Rankine
6. Syd(bid) - Nick Blakey
7. GCS - Ben King
8. Western - Bailey Smith
9. Adelaide - Jackson Hately
10. NM(bid) - Tarryn Thomas

Surely you club could get Ben king cheap after two years like Scrimshaw

 

[Davo-27]

Over tha past few years the draft has ceased at around mid 70. Do you think it will go deeper this year? What do you think Davo

i think the number of draft picks is more about intra-club politics rather than the strength or weakness of a draft, but i do think that there will be really good talent past pick 40 which isnt always the case in most drafts.

Surely you club could get Ben king cheap after two years like Scrimshaw

i'm not sold on Scrimshaw, there were some good and bad things about his game, the good is he has big hands and is pretty clean with pick up and use, he also runs to receive, these are fine traits, the issue i have and i think others do also, is that he isnt convincing when it comes to pressure or physical contact and in a contact sport... well you can see the problem, i hope he does well though, i was against us trading hard for him like we did with O'Rourke, but getting him cheaply, i guess he is worth the risk.

as for Ben King, the King twins seem more mentally strong and therefore more likely to not run away from a club after 2 years, but maybe after 8 if GCS doesnt provide an opportunity to go deep into finals like all players hope for and want from their careers.

 

[BORIS332]

Jackson Hately has the physique and possession winning ability, but he murders possession, im not a fan of these types of players, also seems mentally dull and jumpy at times, so Positives: physique, ball winning ability, aggressive. Negatives: poor disposal, poor footy IQ, doesnt do well under pressure, but he's good enough to be drafted.

Based on that assessment I can only assume you've never actually seen Hately play.

 

[foodles05]

Based on that assessment I can only assume you've never actually seen Hately play.

What's your assessment of his disposal?

 

[Davo-27]

Based on that assessment I can only assume you've never actually seen Hately play.

i've seen him play, his disposal is mixed, sometimes good when he has space, but can he butcher it under pressure, i've never seen someone miss so many handballs in my life, his kicking can be good if he is open, but as he is mainly a contested poss player thats not his bread and butter.

he has a similar physique to Dyson Heppell and a similar play style, im not a huge fan of Heppells, so if thats what you're looking for, then you get that in Jackson Hately without the certainty of an AFL career like Heppell has.

btw i think he will go top 10 to Adelaide, i just think he will have disposal issues and for a team that requires good disposal he could be a problem, but for a team that just needs accumulator and not so much care about disposal efficiency then he would be ok.

 

[eastfreo75]

so pick 53.....

in the last 5 years my club hates the draft

so top 10 guesstimate

1. Carlton - Sam Walsh
2. GCS - Jack Lukosius
3. GCS - Connor Rozee
4. StK - Max King
5. Port Adel - Izak Rankine
6. Syd(bid) - Nick Blakey
7. GCS - Ben King
8. Western - Bailey Smith
9. Adelaide - Jackson Hately
10. NM(bid) - Tarryn Thomas

90% right I think.

Suns will go with Smith instead of King.

King better player and need but Smith can go into the best 22 straight away and less of a risk flight.

 

[Davo-27]

Repost this with a few additions at the bottom.

TOP 60

1. Sam Walsh
2. Ben King
3. Izak Rankine
4. Nick Blakey (SYD A)
5. Jack Lukosius
6. Connor Rozee
7. Max King
8. Bailey Smith
9. Tarryn Thomas (NM NGA)
10. Xavier Duursma
11. Bailey Williams
12. Xavier O'Halloran
13. Ned McHenry
14. Zak Butters
15. Jordan Clark
16. Bailey Scott (NM F/S)
17. Jye Caldwell
18. Ian Hill
19. Jackson Hately
20. Chayce Jones
21. Connor McFadyen (BRIS A)
22. Sam Sturt
23. Ely Smith
24. Luke Valente
25. Riley Collier-Dawkins
26. Jack Bytel
27. Liam Stocker
28. Tom McKenzie
29. Jarrod Cameron (WCE NGA)
30. Jacob Kennerley
31. Curtis Taylor
32. Rhylee West (WEST F/S)
33. Laitham Vandermeer
34. Joe Ayton-Delaney
35. Aaron Nietschke
36. Jack Ross
37. Tom Joyce
38. Thomas Sparrow
39. Jason Carter (FRE NGA)
40. Lachlan Sholl
41. Will Hamill
42. Xavier O'Neill
43. Harry Reynolds
44. Jake Gaspar
45. Jez Mclennan
46. Oscar Brownless (GEEL F/S)
47. Alastair Richards
48. Fraser Turner
49. Campbell Hustwaite
50. Luke Moore
51. Daly Andrews
52. Toby Bedford (MELB NGA)
53. Tom Lewis
54. Jacob Koshitzke
55. Dillon O'Reilly
56. Mathew Walker (GWS A)
57. Mitch Riordan
58. Kieran Briggs (GWS A)
59. Tom Berry
60. Sydney Stack


mentions: Barzen, Chapman, Bayne, Garoni, L.Young, Murray(GWS A), Atley, Hanrahan, Fletcher, Quaynor(COLL NGA), Munn, Medhat(FRE NGA), Reid, Grundy, Foley, Quint (BL A), Gown, Golds

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Wow, Quaynor not even in your top 60.

 

[Jibroni]

Valente at 24?

Surely the Crows or Port will snap him up before then.

 

[PMBangers]

Imagine thinking rankings and phantom drafts are the same thing

 

[Bicks]

Valente at 24?

Surely the Crows or Port will snap him up before then.

Hope not, we don't need another mid that lacks pace.

 

[Davo-27]

i guess im controversial because when i rate players i dont tend to look at other peoples rating of players, i just rate them on what i see, then later i see other peoples ratings and i read the comments of certain players and they dont always align with what i have seen of them and for some reason this annoys people that havnt bothered to watch a single game of u/18 football.

every club has a different list of top 30-50 players they like, why would you expect conformity within the bigfooty group of u/18 talent spotters?

 

[Davo-27]

24. Ely Smith

i thought i was being edgy putting Ely Smith here in september 24th, then after the combine it seems he might go earlier.

 

[Procrastinator35]

so pick 53.....

in the last 5 years my club hates the draft

We have a fairly well established practice in the past decade of opting for the ready-made product.....Early draft picks are no guarantee & are still more hit & miss than anything else....Particularly once you get past the first dozen selections.

It's a policy that's served us well.....Late draft picks can end up working out equally as well; As James Sicily can attest to.

 

[Davo-27]

We have a fairly well established practice in the past decade of opting for the ready-made product.....Early draft picks are no guarantee & are still more hit & miss than anything else....Particularly once you get past the first dozen selections.

It's a policy that's served us well.....Late draft picks can end up working out equally as well; As James Sicily can attest to.

i have made this argument years ago, so i agree, but at the same time, you generally build a core group from drafts whether they be early or late and the problem with late picks is you cant draft tall talent, you might get an ok tall player, but if you want a good/elite tall player you can only get them in the top 10, unless you get lucky with a trade or FA, which we havnt been in the case of tall talent except Frawley and he wasnt a game changing tall either.

our club needs a King Twin, Lukosius, Blakey, Williams more than any other club in the competiton.

 

[Procrastinator35]

i have made this argument years ago, so i agree, but at the same time, you generally build a core group from drafts whether they be early or late and the problem with late picks is you cant draft tall talent, you might get an ok tall player, but if you want a good/elite tall player you can only get them in the top 10, unless you get lucky with a trade or FA, which we havnt been in the case of tall talent except Frawley and he wasnt a game changing tall either.

our club needs a King Twin, Lukosius, Blakey, Williams more than any other club in the competiton.

We may well yet trade down in this years draft to around the 30ish mark, in order to secure Williams.....Can't see him lasting to pick 53, unless all the other 17 clubs are completely clueless.

 

[Davo-27]

We may well yet trade down in this years draft to around the 30ish mark, in order to secure Williams.....Can't see him lasting to pick 53, unless all the other 17 clubs are completely clueless.

well we need some high quality talls and soon, trading away Burton who was a quality tall was a decision i can understand, but at the same time was a poor decision going forward, here are our tall list atm and it doesnt look pretty

Roughead - on his last legs
Frawley - ok
Gunston and Stratton are 3rd talls not KPP (although Stratts did stand up to be our KPD this year, but he is better as a flexible defender)
Schoenmakers - ok as a chf
TOB - nightmare
Brand - getting better, but still a concern
Mirra - could be our number 1 defender soon?
Nash - too inconsistent
Lewis - young forw/ruck could be ok

not a lot to be excited about with our talls, we're relying on our 3rd talls to try and play KPP atm which is dangerous

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Would the Hawks go for Hudson Garoni or Dane Hollenkamp or neither?

Maybe Thomas Hallebone.

 

[Davo-27]

Would the Hawks go for Hudson Garoni or Dane Hollenkamp or neither?

Maybe Thomas Hallebone.

i was thinking Hudson Garoni or Noah Gown, but i think we'll draft best possible, then trade for a tall, that seems to be the way we operate atm, we'll get by with these talls this year and go for a tall next year i guess?

 

[Procrastinator35]

well we need some high quality talls and soon, trading away Burton who was a quality tall was a decision i can understand, but at the same time was a poor decision going forward, here are our tall list atm and it doesnt look pretty

Roughead - on his last legs
Frawley - ok
Gunston and Stratton are 3rd talls not KPP
Schoenmakers - ok as a chf
TOB - nightmare
Brand - getting better, but still a concern
Mirra - could be our number 1 defender soon?
Nash - too inconsistent
Lewis - young forw/ruck could be ok

not a lot to be excited about with our talls, we're relying on our 3rd talls to try and play KPP atm which is dangerous

I don't share your pessimism....Nash & Lewis are still only 19 & will be our 2 key forwards going forwards. With Brand & TOB our future key position defenders....Both of whom have been solid at VFL level in those positions....O'Brien looks far better behind the ball.

Reckon we're fine currently in that department.

 

[Davo-27]

I don't share your pessimism....Nash & Lewis are still only 19 & will be our 2 key forwards going forwards. With Brand & TOB our future key position defenders....Both of whom have been solid at VFL level in those positions....O'Brien looks far better behind the ball.

Reckon we're fine currently in that department.

i like Lewis who is 19 and kicked 38 goals from 19 games, he has that Nathan Thompson style about him, could be an ok tall forward and i think Brand can become an ok defender, but i dont share your optimism for TOB and Nash.

the point is, even if all 4 make it, they are ok players, none of them are stars, none of them will dominate, none of them will deliver a premiership, whats the point in recruiting or playing if you arent trying to win premierships?

 

[Harlequin Dream]

I think you are being pretty harsh on Nash. I wouldn't expect much more from a 20-year-old tall especially someone who is new to the game.

Personally, I don't think Hawthorn needs to have dominate talls to be dangerous. If your talls are good enough to provide structure Breust, Gunston and Wingard will kick a winning score. Same is true in the backline, you are not going to get smashed given your mediums are very good overhead.

 

[Procrastinator35]

I think you are being pretty harsh on Nash. I wouldn't expect much more from a 20-year-old tall especially someone who is new to the game.

Personally, I don't think Hawthorn needs to have dominate talls to be dangerous. If your talls are good enough to provide structure Breust, Gunston and Wingard will kick a winning score. Same is true in the backline, you are not going to get smashed given your mediums are very good overhead.

Indeed....Nash has shown plenty for an Irish lad of 198cm, who is, as you say, only new to the game......He has the biggest upside of all 4 IMO.