Draft Expert Davo-27's 2021 u18 Draft Thread

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PMBangers

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Absolutely, I just think that there's a number of extremely talented and natural forwards in this year's draft pool, but barely hear about them. Went to an SA school game a month or two ago, saw a young bloke kick 8 against Zac Becker who is widely considered one of the better backmen in this SA draft class. Just think an individuals ability is being shrouded by the height they stand at. Similar examples ive seen in Vic recently.
8 goals in one game? Who could this superstar be
 

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8 goals in one game? Who could this superstar be
Still not as good as Scotch's Zac Becker's 11 goals against St. Micks... :D

I believe McInnes 8 goal game came against Immanuel?

PRINCE ALFRED 17.18 (120)
IMMANUEL 9.5 (59)

The reigning premier also moves to a 2-1 record after a commanding triumph against Immanuel.

Prince Alfred flexed its muscles to enjoy a 17.18 (120) to 9.5 (59) win against Immanuel at home.

The Reds stopped Immanuel from claiming its second victory of the season.

Harry McInnes put on a best on ground performance, booting eight goals.

SCOTCH 22.11 (143)
ST MICHAEL’S 10.10 (70)

A whopping 11 goals from Zac Becker helped Scotch beat St Michael’s at home on Saturday.

Becker’s masterclass up-forward led to a 22.11 (143) to 10.10 (70) victory.

Oscar Turnbull and Cormack O’Reilly chipped in with three goals apiece.

The triumph has helped Scotch keep in touch with the top teams and have a 2-1 record.
 

Davo-27

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Morgan Ferres i have seen a little of this year and he looks a good kpf/3rd tall type, like someone else mentioned unless they are built like a brick shythouse they usually become 3rd tall types at AFL if they are under 193cm or have a slim build for their height(unless they are extremely tall like the Kings) same can be said for Harry McInnes who caught my eye last year, when he failed to make the SA squad late last year i jumped off his bandwagon and i think he is 190cm, but he is a good leading forward and a player i like(players who can lead all day and accurate goal kickers), i just wish i could see more of him this year, hopefully at the champs later in the year, fingers crossed.
 

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Davo-27

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I am genuinely curious at what height you are deemed a KPF. Theres a couple kids running around in SA and WA that are around the 190 cm mark and have been averaging 4 goals a game. It makes me wonder whether the focus is being put wholly on an individuals height, not their ability to impact the game and score goals.
20 years ago 190cm was KPF Height but now its more 193cm at the low end, 195cm is becoming the recruiting standard or the desired standard, Roughead was 193cm and Darling 191cm but the difference is they are naturally built like brick shythouses and that gives them an advantage in strength and body positioning that few others have, also at their height they should be better off the ground, at least Roughy was.

If you are 190cm and good at what you do at junior level playing KPF then when you get to the state league or afl level its more likely you will be playing the medium forward role, it is how the competition is evolving.
 

Heath Dunby

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Still not as good as Scotch's Zac Becker's 11 goals against St. Micks... :D

I believe McInnes 8 goal game came against Immanuel?

PRINCE ALFRED 17.18 (120)
IMMANUEL 9.5 (59)

The reigning premier also moves to a 2-1 record after a commanding triumph against Immanuel.

Prince Alfred flexed its muscles to enjoy a 17.18 (120) to 9.5 (59) win against Immanuel at home.

The Reds stopped Immanuel from claiming its second victory of the season.

Harry McInnes put on a best on ground performance, booting eight goals.

SCOTCH 22.11 (143)
ST MICHAEL’S 10.10 (70)

A whopping 11 goals from Zac Becker helped Scotch beat St Michael’s at home on Saturday.

Becker’s masterclass up-forward led to a 22.11 (143) to 10.10 (70) victory.

Oscar Turnbull and Cormack O’Reilly chipped in with three goals apiece.

The triumph has helped Scotch keep in touch with the top teams and have a 2-1 record.
Zac Becker in Cal Twomeys current team of the year. Good to see a good kid get his recognition
 

Ysaye

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I think we need to remember that the recruiter's view is not drafting to hit the jackpot but more drafting to not fail.

It is not that some of these 190cm kids won't get drafted (although if they don't have the speed to get separation then they possibly won't); it is more likely that if they take a tall with an early pick the recruiter needs to have a number of competitive advantages that will work at AFL level, and height is a big part of that. Additionally, versatility of roles is a big thing particularly for talls; simply because of the rotations and the need to squeeze as much out of a player, but also to have a backup if they don't work out down forward (again drafting to not fail rather than drafting to hit the jackpot).

Put it another way: what recruiters ideally want to draft with a Top 15 pick when they draft a Key Position is a 200cm tall KPF with a less than 3.05 seconds 20m sprint time and a decent leap that could mean they may be a forward / ruck / utility. Players like the King brothers, Thilthorpe and Jackson. This is what recruiters ideally want for a forward and they are willing to accept mediocre performances at a junior level for these characteristics. They will accept players closer to 195cm in the Top 15 but they have to not only have outstanding attributes (so even faster speeds and higher leaps or amazing footy brains) but also versatility to play defence or midfield AND need to have an absolutely outstanding (or rather record breaking) empirical record leading up to the draft. This covers off (over the last 5 years where this has really come to the fore) your Lukosius, Blakey, Naughton (although I doubt he was drafted with him playing forward in mind), McDonald and Ugle Hagan's of the world. But it is interesting to note that of this last group the highly touted forwards Lukosius and Blakely are playing as defenders and midfielders respectively, and Ugle-Hagan and McDonald are struggling to keep a spot in their teams atm.

About 3-4 months ago I said I reckoned that all three of Van Rooyen, Amiss and Williams could be more around the 25-30 mark, but maybe I was being even too ambitious there? Amiss has a great colts record for the season but it is hard to see him going to far up the rankings because he only has his goal kicking against colts to go on; he doesn't seem to have the versatility to do anything else, and there will always been the concern that at the next level he will be overpowered by a number defender with much height and better speed. Van Rooyen has recently been playing defence and also once as a midfielder and I think this is a large part of the WAFC / Claremont marketing strategy; to sell him to recruiters as a Lukosius or Blakey type prospect. And Williams is still in the picture probably as much for his rucking which he has been doing a lot more of in recent months (although how that fits in if he only stays as 195cm?).
 

Davo-27

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Drafting to not fail is bettering your chances at hitting the jackpot, because no star players come from misses.

Height is an issue, but there are always exceptions not only for sub 177cm players but for sub 193cm KPPs, its just rare.
 
Tiers

Davo-27

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An update on where i think the players in this draft pool fall into tiers

"Soft Elite" - Daicos, Darcy, Horne, Callaghan

Tier 2 - Erasmus, Sinn, Fahey, Hobbs, Roberts, Johnson, Rachele

Tier 3 - Goater, Gibcus, Long, Ward, Chesser, Browne, Amiss, Sonsie, Van Rooyen, Draper, MacDonald, Clarke, Conway, Banks, Andrew, Lohmann, Wilmot, Brown, Wanganeen-Milera

Then there is a large group of 50+ who are talented but have some deficiencies

"Soft Elite" means they are not as Elite as previous years i think.
 
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Davo-27

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Does that make Tier 2 weaker than your average second tier as well, etc?

no, i think the tier 2 is similar to recent drafts, its just that Horne has yet to have that big game in the SANFL and even his AFL Academy game was solid and not great, Daicos is like his brother but more productive and maybe a better shot at goal but he lacks size, whether that be height or strength, Darcy is the closest to elite as he has a lot of great qualities like his height and athleticism also his performances in front of goal and in defence have been dominant, but i would like to see another game or 2 to see how consistent he is with those performances and Callaghan has some elite traits like Sinn but also a couple small question marks on contested footy, so thats why i think they are "soft elite", most of the other elite players in previous years i didnt have many doubts about except maybe Noah Anderson after he had some poor patches in his draft year and champs, as i always say the big games like champs and finals can change my mind still.
 

Davo-27

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Josh Fahey is a Nick Haynes replacement(very similar play styles and both very brave), GWS getting a good defender for free this year especially if he slides past their first 2 picks...
 

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Academy/NGA

Davo-27

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Academy/NGA+(F/S) Players i think have a good chance of being drafted (NGA in Vic cant be matched in top 20, NGA from metro cant be matched in top 40 in SA and WA)

West Coast - ?
Fremantle - J.Motlop

Adelaide - B.O'Loughlin, I.Dudley
Port Adelaide - J.Burgoyne

Sydney - ?
GWS - J.Fahey

Gold Coast - B.Uwland
Brisbane - ?

Melbourne - M.Andrew(Dand)
StKilda - M.Owens, M.Windhager(Sand) S.Beilby(Oak)
North Melb - J.Archer(North)
Western - S.Darcy(Oak) B.Scott(GWV)
Richmond - ?
Hawthorn - ?
Carlton - ?
Essendon - ?
Collingwood - N.Daicos, Y.Dib(Oak)
Geelong - ?
 
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Tommy Wigs

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Academy/NGA+(F/S) Players i think have a good chance of being drafted (NGA in Vic cant be matched in top 20, NGA from metro cant be matched in top 40 in SA and WA)

West Coast - ?
Fremantle - J.Motlop

Adelaide - B.O'Loughlin, I.Dudley
Port Adelaide - J.Burgoyne

Sydney - ?
GWS - J.Fahey

Gold Coast - B.Uwland
Brisbane - ?

Melbourne - M.Andrew(Dand)
StKilda - M.Owens, M.Windhager(Sand) S.Beilby(Oak)
North Melb - ?
Western - S.Darcy(Oak)
Richmond - ?
Hawthorn - ?
Carlton - ?
Essendon - ?
Collingwood - N.Daicos, Y.Dib(Oak)
Geelong - ?
What are your thoughts on Beilby? Injured since early in the year?
 

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Academy/NGA+(F/S) Players i think have a good chance of being drafted (NGA in Vic cant be matched in top 20, NGA from metro cant be matched in top 40 in SA and WA)

West Coast - ?
Fremantle - J.Motlop

Adelaide - B.O'Loughlin, I.Dudley
Port Adelaide - J.Burgoyne

Sydney - ?
GWS - J.Fahey

Gold Coast - B.Uwland
Brisbane - ?

Melbourne - M.Andrew(Dand)
StKilda - M.Owens, M.Windhager(Sand) S.Beilby(Oak)
North Melb - ?
Western - S.Darcy(Oak)
Richmond - ?
Hawthorn - ?
Carlton - ?
Essendon - ?
Collingwood - N.Daicos, Y.Dib(Oak)
Geelong - ?

No idea who it will be but Sydney will generally always take one from the academy. I don't imagine any make the main draft this year and certainly not the top 40... although that cut-off is irrelevant to us
 

PMBangers

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No idea who it will be but Sydney will generally always take one from the academy. I don't imagine any make the main draft this year and certainly not the top 40... although that cut-off is irrelevant to us
Would guess that McAndrew will be the closest thing to it
 

Davo-27

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What are your thoughts on Beilby? Injured since early in the year?

i liked what i saw of Beilby, has Ben Long style of play, so worth picking up later in the draft at least imo.

i forgot to add J.Archer who i really like as a small defender for Northern, will likely go late to North Melbourne and Blake Scott who i think is another late option for the Bulldogs, i really liked his game winning form in a game earlier in the season, showed something special in a couple of games as a small forward/half forw flanker.

also Mitch Owens was one of my top 8 from Sandringham earlier in the year and i didnt realise he was a saints NGA, so i think he is a good pickup mid-late draft for the saints.
 
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Academy/NGA+(F/S) Players i think have a good chance of being drafted (NGA in Vic cant be matched in top 20, NGA from metro cant be matched in top 40 in SA and WA)

West Coast - ?
Fremantle - J.Motlop

Adelaide - B.O'Loughlin, I.Dudley
Port Adelaide - J.Burgoyne

Sydney - ?
GWS - J.Fahey

Gold Coast - B.Uwland
Brisbane - ?

Melbourne - M.Andrew(Dand)
StKilda - M.Owens, M.Windhager(Sand) S.Beilby(Oak)
North Melb - J.Archer(North)
Western - S.Darcy(Oak) B.Scott(GWV)
Richmond - ?
Hawthorn - ?
Carlton - ?
Essendon - ?
Collingwood - N.Daicos, Y.Dib(Oak)
Geelong - ?
How's Raak been going? Seemed to have a great start and there was a lot of talk about him in the mid season draft but then he was overlooked and I haven't seen him mentioned since.
His played a few serviceable games in the VFL so not sure how much nab league he has played but has he dropped away a bit or just out of the picture after being overlooked?
 

Davo-27

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How's Raak been going? Seemed to have a great start and there was a lot of talk about him in the mid season draft but then he was overlooked and I haven't seen him mentioned since.
His played a few serviceable games in the VFL so not sure how much nab league he has played but has he dropped away a bit or just out of the picture after being overlooked?
ive always seen Raak as a state league type player, but some other draft watchers liked the look of him, i have been consistent on this view over nearly 3 years, could be a cat b fringe type if the Dogs need depth, which it doesnt seem like they do at present.
 

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ive always seen Raak as a state league type player, but some other draft watchers liked the look of him, i have been consistent on this view over nearly 3 years, could be a cat b fringe type if the Dogs need depth, which it doesnt seem like they do at present.
Any thoughts on Ewan McPherson and Blake Scott (Dogs NGA)?
Draftable or state league level also?
 

Davo-27

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Any thoughts on Ewan McPherson and Blake Scott (Dogs NGA)?
Draftable or state league level also?

MacPherson is a solid 19 yr old for Northern Knights, again he lacks a bit of class and decision making(looked past last year and in the mid season draft), definitely could be a state league player or a fringe AFL type, but the Dogs have such a good list they arent looking for players in the 25-35 range on their list so they might not pick him up?

B.Scott i like as a late draft pick up, i saw a game earlier in the year where his side was a few goals down and he was a big reason they fought back and won that game in half a dozen big plays on half forward(a goal or 2 as well) in the last quarter, so to me that speaks to his character and competitiveness which i like in a recruit.
 

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