Draft Expert Davo-27's 2021 u18 Draft Thread

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briztoon

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ok some rumours just in, lets go with them and see how the top 10 works out if true (GC and Haw trade potentially?)

1. North - JHF
2. Coll - Daicos
3. Western - Darcy
4. GWS - Andrew
5. Haw - Callaghan
6. Adel - Rachele
7. GC - Amiss
8. Frem - Erasmus
9. Rich - Hobbs
10. Frem - Johnson
11. StKilda - Ward
12. WCE - Sinn
The latest media rumours have GWS locked in to Callaghan now.
 

botts

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The latest media rumours have GWS locked in to Callaghan now.
Heard the same. They are still expecting to get a pretty good offer for it on draft night but odd on to keep it and take old finny boy
 

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chopflop

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ok some rumours just in, lets go with them and see how the top 10 works out if true (GC and Haw trade potentially?)

1. North - JHF
2. Coll - Daicos
3. Western - Darcy
4. GWS - Andrew
5. Haw - Callaghan
6. Adel - Rachele
7. GC - Amiss
8. Frem - Erasmus
9. Rich - Hobbs
10. Frem - Johnson
11. StKilda - Ward
12. WCE - Sinn
If the trades happen- is see it similar except Gibcus at saints and Ward sliding, potentially to Port. Think essendon takes Goater with the existing links and he is a type they life (athletic big mid/flank)
 
Rumour Mill Top 10

Davo-27

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updating potential top 10 from the rumour mill

pick 1 - North - JHF (he wants pick 1 and they have refused to trade it so it seems logical they will use pick 1 on him to reaffirm he is the best talent in the draft)
pick 2 - Coll - Nick Daicos (could go 1 but signs from North are that JHF will go 1, so its likely GWS bid on him as he would be a steal if not matched)
pick 3 - Western - Sam Darcy (again GWS bid and try and steal the best KPP prospect in the draft pool who can play at both ends of the ground and tall enough to also try out ruck eventually at 205.5cm)
pick 4 - GWS - Finn Callaghan (they have been linked to Andrew and Gibcus throughout the year, but most journos believe they are a lock now to take Callaghan)
pick 5 - GCS - Jye Amiss (they have also been linked to Andrew and Gibcus for awhile, but theres an interesting rumour they are into Amiss and im going with it for now)
pick 6 - Adel - Josh Rachele (they have been linked to Rachele for a couple months and his performance at the training drill held a few days ago where he looked AFL ready makes this more likely imo)
pick 7 - Haw - Josh Ward (this pick is hard to gauge, we've been linked to Andrew, we also could go Hobbs, theres also a chance we go Erasmus/Johnson, this is where it starts to become a bit unknown, but i think Wards run and delivery could be an attractive quality)
pick 8 - Frem - Neil Erasmus (i think Erasmus as a HFF/Mid gives them scoring power and midfield depth, kindve like what Walters does for them but in a diffrent style of player and they need more scoring power imo)
pick 9 - Rich - Ben Hobbs (they have been linked to Hobbs for awhile, he is a richmond fan and gives them a tough leader in the guts that they need to replace soon, if he makes it here it would be a perfect fit, although they have also been linked to Sinn? and maybe Gibcus to replace their recent KPD retirees?)
pick 10 - Frem - Mac Andrew (after missing out on Amiss i think they take Andrew who interviews well and has potential to build into a good KPF/Ruck in the near future, i think they will be looking to maybe develop him into a KPF who can play backup ruck?) but this pick could be anyone, it really is up in the air imo, could also be Johnson or Sinn or some other pick here maybe even Gibcus? could also be the big game performer in NWM?, theres plenty of options
 
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Mid-late draft value picks

Davo-27

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i think some players who might go mid to late draft that are great value imo(potentially criminally under rated)

Paul Curtis - Western Jets (was in the top 6 or so players for Vic Metro)
Sam Banks - Tasmania (top end athleticism and good disposal)
Cooper Beecken - Glenlg (played well for SA in the state games and was a stand out last year in a intra state game)
Josh Browne - East Frem (dominated for WA in the state series, dominated for East Frem averaging 32 disposals a game in Colts footy)
Kade Dittmar - East Perth (dominated for WA when he played midfield, has been good as a forw/mid in Colts footy)
Morgan Ferres - Sturt (was one of SA best in the state series)
Ned Long - Northern Knights (dominant early in the season, big body with surprising agility and speed off the mark, also great contested mark in the forward line)
Charlie Molan - GWV (great interceptor, had a great game for VC and when he is on really can turn the game for his team)
James Tunstill - East Perth (stood up in the state games for WA with tidy disposal)

i was going to mention Jake Soligo but he got mentioned in Cal Twomeys top 35 recently, Josh Fahey should be bid on in the first round too imo
 
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Top 50

Davo-27

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Top 50 - Pre-Draft

1. Jason Horne-Francis
2. Nick Daicos
3. Sam Darcy
4. Finn Callaghan
5. Josh Rachele
6. Ben Hobbs
7. Neil Erasmus
8. Josh Ward
9. Jye Amiss
10. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
11. Matthew Johnson
12. Josh Goater
13. Josh Sinn
14. Josh Fahey
15. Jacob Van Rooyen
16. Mitch Knevitt
17. Ned Long
18. Mac Andrew
19. Campbell Chesser
20. Rhett Bazzo
21. Josh Gibcus
22. Paul Curtis
23. Toby Conway
24. Connor MacDonald
25. Matthew Roberts
26. Tyler Sonsie
27. Mitch Owens
28. Josh Browne
29. Sam Banks
30. Darcy Wilmot
31. Arlo Draper
32. Kade Dittmar
33. Judson Clarke
34. Jake Soligo
35. Brady Hough
36. Zac Taylor
37. Sam Butler
38. Charlie Dean
39. Morgan Ferres
40. Tom Brown
41. Arthur Jones
42. James Tunstill
43. Kai Lohmann
44. Cooper Hamilton
45. Cooper Beecken
46. Lachlan Rankin
47. Charlie Molan
48. Angus Sheldrick
49. Jesse Motlop
50. Jase Burgoyne

(special mention: Leek Aleer, James Willis)
 
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foodles05

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The numbers he put up in a bunch of games this year is absurd

How many 20+d 5+clearance 3+ goals games did he put in as a underager in the under 18’s? Had a heap of them from memory.

Has very good hands in marking contests. Is a very big lad and should be a monster when he gets into the system. I still have some questions over him but he could be an unreal talent if he develops well in his draft year.

He will develop well his application is obscene! Also has crazy athleticism. I saw a basketball highlights clip of him throwing down some monster dunks. Never seen a more driven kid in my life.
 

Davo-27

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rumour is GWS wont bid on Daicos? if this is true then it means he goes at 4 (after Darcy bid and Callaghan being linked heavily to GWS), Collingwood would be happy with not having to pay up too much to secure one of the best players in the draft pool.
 

eastfreo75

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rumour is GWS wont bid on Daicos? if this is true then it means he goes at 4 (after Darcy bid and Callaghan being linked heavily to GWS), Collingwood would be happy with not having to pay up too much to secure one of the best players in the draft pool.
GWS has picks 54,55.

I would bid on both Darcy and Daicos.
 

Significant

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GWS has picks 54,55.

I would bid on both Darcy and Daicos.
Those picks are just going to be taken up by the Fahey bid anyway as their third live pick. GWS will bid on players based on their personal ranking, not to game the system.
 

Giant Strides

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Those picks are just going to be taken up by the Fahey bid anyway as their third live pick. GWS will bid on players based on their personal ranking, not to game the system.
I suspect his point was that GWS should bid on both Daicos & Darcy to improve those two late picks to help out with matching Fahey. Personally, I would. But Adrian Caruso won't - I agree with you that he'll bid based on his own assessment of the players.
 

Section 5

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My thoughts regarding the bid on Daicos
The Pies have played their hand very early stating they will take him at any bid. Reportedly already signed a 4 year deal
I doubt any player has come into a draft with the team having the number one pick guaranteed not to go to them
North should make the bid and Collingwood will match.
It's not like Daicos is only rated as a top 10 player and a bid might look like gaming the system
By all reports in the last few years Daicos was clearly the number 1 player up until a few months ago

North have been struggling for some time and need to take some pressure off their chosen player in Horne- Francis
Some players may struggle with being taken as number 1. Why run this risk at all
It is hard enough playing in the bottom team without added pressure on a young player who will also have to move from SA away from family and friends

Easy enough for North to say to Horne-Francis we rated you number 1 but feel this choice will be in your best long term interest
 

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Davo-27

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i thought it might be interesting to write about the players who slid and players who rose in the draft boards over the year, eDPS had a head start over most here seeing the u16's champs and had his 2 favourites Tyler Sonsie and Josh Sinn who he was talking up for over a year, Campbell Chesser had some fans for his athletic run off half back and midfield play for Vic Country and i was a fan of Josh Rachele and his monster performances for Murray in 2019, the reason there was so much mystery over this years crop is that there was no 2020 season and so we didnt know how they had developed and how the Vic Kids were tracking, i think we all had different players we liked from SA and WA.

First i'll talk about those who dropped in the rankings as the year went on:

Alex Lukic: he was a player who had been a good KPF for Vic Metro in the u16s and had shown some talent for Oakleigh in 2019 as a 16 year old, but early in 2021 it was obvious he had not developed enough and had seemed to lose touch a bit, now it seems like he is unlikely to get drafted

Tyler Sonsie: at the start of the year was tipped by many to go top 3 behind JHF and Daicos, but as the year went by, it seemed obvious that his midfield craft was lacking a contested side, 2 way running and sloppy disposal, meaning that he was a good half forward option and less likely a full time inside midfielder which he was being sold as, there were a few concerns and now he seems likely to go late first or early 2nd

Josh Sinn: another who seemed likely to go top 5, he has amazing athletic traits, but for some reason didnt take the responsibility to play an attacking wing and instead played a safe loose man in defence role, theres no denying he has talent, but if he was a goal kicking winger instead of a loose man in defence with the occasional sloppy kick, he could go higher, he also had a bunch of soft tissue injuries that hampered his season

Campbell Chesser: another that was talked about in the top 10 and now seems late first early 2nd, has athletic ability, but lacks a contested aspect to his game, poor performances in 2021 and injuries also hurt his chances of a top 10 chance

Matthew Roberts: started the season as 1 to watch, with his energetic clearance work for South Adel u18 and his solid performances for the SANFL team, he just ended up playing half forward flank and wing when his best position is inside mid and when he did get the small opportunities to play there he didnt impress in the state games, so he went from possible top 10 to 2nd rounder

Ned Long: early in the season most had him going late first early 2nd but then he got injured and didnt play again, now he could go anywhere?

Sam Banks: another who was rated anywhere from 10-30 early this season looks like he might go mid/late draft because of an injured wrist

Braden Andrews: was injured for most of the early season, i then saw him play a couple games just before shutdown and he looked very average, nothing special about his game, he might go undrafted and may have to go again next year to try and impress?

Blake Howes: he was seen as a top 30 prospect and still is when you gauge peoples phantoms ect, but i was very disappointed with his games as a forward in the first month of the NAB League, he was beaten in nearly every game, then he played on a wing for Sandy and got a few poss during the middle of the season when the season slows down in the NAB League, he then had a poor game for Vic Metro, so for me i dont think he is top 50 worthy, but like i said he is being talked about by others as being a possible top 30, which i disagree with from everything i have seen.


Next i'll talk about players that Rose in draft calculations over the year...
 
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Davo-27

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The players that rose in draft calculations over the year were mostly the players from Victoria that had developed a little later, as well as a few WA lads who were mostly unknown quantities and a couple of big game performers from SA

Sam Darcy: he was a virtual unknown other than he was a father son chance, but from his 2nd game he started to dominate and he dominated nearly every game after that whether it be school footy, NAB League or state Trials/Games, he ended up impressing everyone and is likely going top 3

Finn Callaghan: he was impressive early for Sandringham and i put him in my top 20 early, i loved his evasive ability on the wing and then he took that run and evasion to inside mid where he increased his value, now likely going top 5

Neil Erasmus: i think i was the only 1 talking him up in pre-season, but by the time he played for the AFL Academy people started jumping on the bandwagon, he is likely a 1st rounder maybe top 10?

Jye Amiss: another i started talking about then a week later Cal Twomey has him in his top 20, his form in Colts footy has been great, his form in the state Trials and in his 1 1/4 games of state footy was good too, he could go anywhere in the first round

Josh Ward: a player i had as a player in the late first early 2nd round, but as the season went on, he impressed more and more and by the time he put in a dominant performance for the state team he was on his way to going top 10 or thereabouts

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera: a player i liked from last year, performed in most big games and his great performances on the wing/hbf for SA has him possibly going top 10

Josh Goater: like Ward was considered to be a late first early 2nd rounder, but now seems likely to go mid 1st round somewhere, has explosive pace from a pack and is a tall athletic type in the midfield, can also play half back where he likes to use the space provided as a loose man in defence

Mitch Knevitt: came from nowhere, he wasnt on the radar and then it became impossible to ignore how well he played especially in the state games, likely top 20

Mac Andrew: another player who wasnt really known about before the season, but put together some good games and highlight reels from his AFL Academy and Vic Country Games to get people excited, likely top 10 and taken away from Melb NGA.

Josh Gibcus: had a few games early in the year where he showed off some athletic traits people got excited about, could go somewhere in the first round

Paul Curtis: from nowhere he burst onto the scene with the Western Jets and then for Vic Metro playing quality footy and staking a claim as one of the best small forwards in the draft pool

Mitch Owens: i liked the look of him early for Sandringham, but it was his explosive games for Vic Metro that put his name up there and should go top 20 and be taken away from the saints NGA

Angus Sheldrick: a player who lacks athleticism, but makes up for it with a strength of will and competitiveness, if you watch him he looks like a state league player, but he just never gives up and could be a value pick in mid draft

Kai Lohmann: athletic player who can play in most roles, i liked his GWV games, too bad he never played any rep games, but he is a value mid draft pick as well that has come from nowhere.
 
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Chris25

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Neil Erasmus: i think i was the only 1 talking him up in pre-season, but by the time he played for the AFL Academy people started jumping on the bandwagon, he is likely a 1st rounder maybe top 10?

I think most had Erasmus as a potential top 20 pick coming into the season based off his Colts GF. Was in Fox Sports top 20, and Twomey's 10 to watch in December last year.
 

PMBangers

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Campbell Chesser - reliable midfielder with a bit of pace when needed, solid inside mid and contested player who can find space and link up with runners on the outside, he improved his draft stocks with his performance today
Campbell Chesser: another that was talked about in the top 10 and now seems late first early 2nd, has athletic ability, but lacks a contested aspect to his game, poor performances in 2021 and injuries also hurt his chances of a top 10 chance
Were his performances against Tasmania and Metro really that bad?
 

Davo-27

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I think most had Erasmus as a potential top 20 pick coming into the season based off his Colts GF. Was in Fox Sports top 20, and Twomey's 10 to watch in December last year.

i didnt see anyone on here have Neil Erasmus in their top 20's other than me, also i was talking him up in Sept/Oct last year which pre-dates those articles.
 
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Davo-27

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Were his performances against Tasmania and Metro really that bad?

he did have 1 good game where he contested well, but also had a few where he didnt, 1 game where he had a good contested game doesnt make for the majority of his performances and yea he was pretty bad in a couple of games i saw him in, he was also pretty good in that 1 game against Northern which was his best performance and 1 i would hope he could replicate more often.
 
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ChickenNuggets

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Sonsie: at the start of the year was tipped by many to go top 3 behind JHF and Daicos, but as the year went by, it seemed obvious that his midfield craft was lacking a contested side, 2 way running and sloppy disposal, meaning that he was a good half forward option and less likely a full time inside midfielder which he was being sold as, there were a few concerns and now he seems likely to go late first or early 2nd
Interesting you say Sonsie has sloppy disposal. I know you have your own opinions, but everything else I've read has lauded Sonsie's kicking. I've only seen bits and pieces, but it also looks good to my eye. Any further comment on that?
 

Davo-27

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Interesting you say Sonsie has sloppy disposal. I know you have your own opinions, but everything else I've read has lauded Sonsie's kicking. I've only seen bits and pieces, but it also looks good to my eye. Any further comment on that?

i was at the Box Hill Game where he grassed most of his disposals, his kicking at goal is crisp, i have no problem with his goal kicking, but in general his kicking can be a bit ordinary, especially if he doesnt get fed in space, that left me with the impression he can be sloppy at times(especially when playing against bigger bodies and having less space), i mean some people say that every u18 player has elite disposal, i disagree with that concept.
 

Davo-27

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ok so heres my last Phantom Draft(top 40)

1. North - JHF
2. Western - Sam Darcy
3. GWS - Finn Callaghan
4. Coll - Nick Daicos
5. GCS - Mac Andrew
6. Adel - Josh Rachele
7. Haw - Josh Ward
8. Frem - Jye Amiss
9. Rich - Ben Hobbs
10. Frem - Matthew Johnson
11. StK - Josh Gibcus
12. WCE - Josh Sinn
13. Ess - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
14. Port - Neil Erasmus
15. GWS - Blake Howes
16. Bris - Josh Goater
17. Rich - Jacob Van Rooyen
18. Syd - Mitch Owens
19. GWS - Josh Fahey
20. Melb - Mitch Knevitt
21. Bris - Darcy Wilmot

22. Frem - Tyler Sonsie
23. North - Rhett Bazzo
24. Haw - Connor MacDonald
25. Geel - Tom Brown
26. Haw - Paul Curtis
27. Carl - Campbell Chesser
28. Rich - Zac Taylor
29. Rich - Jesse Motlop
30. Rich - Arlo Draper
31. WCE - Angus Sheldrick
32. Geel - Judson Clarke
33. Syd - Sam Butler
34. Geel - Matthew Roberts
35. Adel - Jake Soligo
36. Geel - Leek Aleer
37. WCE - Sam Banks
38. Coll - Kade Dittmar
39. Melb - Ned Long

40. Coll - Toby Conway
 
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Smythe

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ok so heres my last Phantom Draft(top 40)

1. North - JHF
2. Western - Sam Darcy
3. GWS - Finn Callaghan
4. Coll - Nick Daicos
5. GCS - Mac Andrew
6. Adel - Josh Rachele
7. Haw - Josh Ward
8. Frem - Jye Amiss
9. Rich - Ben Hobbs
10. Frem - Matthew Johnson
11. StK - Josh Gibcus
12. WCE - Josh Sinn
13. Ess - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
14. Port - Neil Erasmus
15. GWS - Blake Howes
16. Bris - Josh Goater
17. Rich - Jacob Van Rooyen
18. Syd - Mitch Owens
19. GWS - Josh Fahey
20. Melb - Mitch Knevitt
21. Bris - Darcy Wilmot

22. Frem - Tyler Sonsie
23. North - Rhett Bazzo
24. Haw - Connor MacDonald
25. Geel - Tyler Sonsie
26. Haw - Paul Curtis
27. Carl - Campbell Chesser
28. Rich - Zac Taylor
29. Rich - Jesse Motlop
30. Rich - Arlo Draper
31. WCE - Angus Sheldrick
32. Geel - Judson Clarke
33. Syd - Sam Butler
34. Geel - Matthew Roberts
35. Adel - Jake Soligo
36. Geel - Leek Aleer
37. WCE - Sam Banks
38. Coll - Kade Dittmar
39. Melb - Ned Long

40. Coll - Toby Conway
Sonsie twice Davo-27
 

PMBangers

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ok so heres my last Phantom Draft(top 40)

1. North - JHF
2. Western - Sam Darcy
3. GWS - Finn Callaghan
4. Coll - Nick Daicos
5. GCS - Mac Andrew
6. Adel - Josh Rachele
7. Haw - Josh Ward
8. Frem - Jye Amiss
9. Rich - Ben Hobbs
10. Frem - Matthew Johnson
11. StK - Josh Gibcus
12. WCE - Josh Sinn
13. Ess - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
14. Port - Neil Erasmus
15. GWS - Blake Howes
16. Bris - Josh Goater
17. Rich - Jacob Van Rooyen
18. Syd - Mitch Owens
19. GWS - Josh Fahey
20. Melb - Mitch Knevitt
21. Bris - Darcy Wilmot

22. Frem - Tyler Sonsie
23. North - Rhett Bazzo
24. Haw - Connor MacDonald
25. Geel - Tyler Sonsie
26. Haw - Paul Curtis
27. Carl - Campbell Chesser
28. Rich - Zac Taylor
29. Rich - Jesse Motlop
30. Rich - Arlo Draper
31. WCE - Angus Sheldrick
32. Geel - Judson Clarke
33. Syd - Sam Butler
34. Geel - Matthew Roberts
35. Adel - Jake Soligo
36. Geel - Leek Aleer
37. WCE - Sam Banks
38. Coll - Kade Dittmar
39. Melb - Ned Long

40. Coll - Toby Conway
Sonsie's gonna be busy
 

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