Draft Expert Davo-27's 2021 u18 Draft Thread

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Vic Country: - played Vic Metro and lost convincingly even though they had a solid team on paper and some good depth which shows how strong Vic Metro were this year

Top 30 possibilities:

Hobbs - i know this could be a controversial opinion, but i think Hobbs could be the better inside mid out of him and Daicos(he also has great leadership and interviews well), there have been some queries on speed ect, but his testing says otherwise and he passes the eye test when it comes to speed(he is also a lot tougher than Daicos), he could be the all important engine room clearance mid or the mid that sets up clearances to be more accurate for a team looking to rebuild, was one of the best for Vic Country in their challenge game too.

Rachele - was dominant in 2019 as a half forward being one of if not the best player for Murray, but after 2020 where no games were played and the addition of the bigger bodies of 19 year olds in 2021, he was not as impressive, although his disposal is still top quality and his ability to impact games is still there it was overall disappointing, some clubs are looking at taking him top 10 because they like the qualities he could bring and was so dominant as an underager for Murray and Vic Country, was also one of the best for Vic Country in the challenge game and kicked a monster goal for AFL Academy V Geelong VFL

Knevitt - tall inside mid with great hands in tight and whilst being tackled, doesnt look athletic on field but has impressive combine results, just a smart tall inside mid with a lot of scope to improve, was also one of the best for Vic Country in the challenege game and averaged some big numbers for Geelong prior to the season falling apart

Gibcus - a tall athletic KPD, can go missing at times, can intercept when the ball is in his zone and can defend a tall target like he did on Darcy after he kicked a couple in the challenge game and kept him relatively quiet, although it was more about Vic Metro's targets inside f50 than great defence at times, he is a decent KPD, but seems to get more credit than he deserves imo

Conway - the best ruck ahead of Andrew in the draft pool, i know unpopular opinion but its true, rucked ahead of Andrew who was part time forw part time ruck and was erratic in form, this guy reminds me of a young Big Boy McEvoy but gets very little love as the clear best ruck in the draft pool imo, was one of the best for Vic Country in the challenge game also.

MacDonald - accumulator inside mid for dandenong, has great numbers and plays well to the eye test, was one i noticed early, but was a bit cautious about as i hadnt seen him perform at the state games or in big games yet, but after seeing his performance as one of the best for Vic Country in the challenge game i went all in on him and i think he is the perfect bargain get in the 2nd round

Andrew - very athletic raw ruck, has some moments of special potential, but reminds me of Mabior Chol for Richmond where he would do something special then go through the motions for the rest of the game, interviews well and seems very smart, also has put on 10kgs apparently over the break so he is working on building himself up and if he can find that consistency of effort might be a gem, had a good game for Vic Country in the challenge game.

Molan - had a great game off of half back in 2019 which made me interested to see how he would do in 2021, started slow and i wasnt quite sure about his draft potential until the state games came along and i was convinced, he put in a good game for Vic Country and actually played better for Country than he did for GWV which is a good sign to see a player play better at a higher level

Brown - another half back that is getting a lot of attention for being a non aligned father-son to cat Paul and having great athletic traits at the pre-season combine. i liked him without thinking he was great, relies more on his athleticism than on his footy iq, being talked up a bit higher than i think he should go

Chesser - one of those players that performs better with space, looked fantastic in the u16's champs, but really struggled to find the footy in the u18's challenge game and i think that hurt his prospects a bit, but could still find a place in the top 30 based on athletic traits, good interview ability and potential, saw him play a good game for Sandringham earlier in the year, but overall his 2021 was plagued by injury and poor form.

Clarke - after kicking 6 in the trials there was a lot expected of Judson Clarke, but he really fizzled out in the challenge game hardly getting into the game let alone kicking goals or setting up team mates, played a solid year for Dandenong with his flashy yellow boots, but really is an on again off again player, performance dependant on a particular week(skillful but inconsistent)

Butler - didnt play the challenge game, i saw him for GWV and i remember thinking he went ok, but not really good enough to be talked about as a draft talent, then saw him pop up in some Cal Twomey lists and i was like huh? ok? maybe?, still not really sold along with a couple of others on Cal Twomeys list, then i looked into his stats to see if there was something the eye test missed and other than him having a brother that plays AFL, he has really unimpressive stats for a mid/forw, averages 17 disposals, 3 marks, 5 tackles, 7 goals in 9 games, really underwhelming numbers in the NAB League, but he is a decent player to the eye test, just not that good from my PoV, but hey he could develop so best of luck to him(has speed which some clubs love).

other VC Talent that i think proved their worth, C.Hamilton (playing off half back, seems tough and skillful), Morrison (one of the better KPD in the draft pool without the hype of others), Bergman (have not really liked his play much, here because of the hype around him) Lohmann (didnt play the challenge game but has great athletic traits and can play),
Really like macdonald. HS reported he was one of the best interviewees recruiters have ever seen. Would love him at 24 for us
 
Phantom Draft 8th November 2021

1. North Melb - Jason Horne-Francis (along with his good form in the SANFL Finals, i think North have made it clear they rate JHF the best talent)
2. Collingwood (Bid) - Nick Daicos (likely to go at 2 as he is too good to not go at 1 or 2)
3. Western (Bid) - Sam Darcy (GWS is looking for good KPP Talent and Darcy is likely the best KPP Talent in this draft)
4. GWS - Josh Gibcus (they have been linked to Mac Andrew, but i think they want a KPD more and they seem to rate Gibcus highly)
5. Gold Coast - Finn Callaghan (they will take the best available at this spot and a quick agile outside/inside mid would suit them)
6. Adelaide - Josh Rachele (Adelaide need scoring power and elite kicking inside 50 and Rachele gives them that)
7. Hawthorn - Josh Ward (i like Hobbs here, but i think Ward fits what we need and theres little difference in quality between Hobbs and Ward)
8. Fremantle - Neil Erasmus (i think he fits Fremantle perfectly, he is a half forw who can play mid at a good level too, Fremantle need more scoring power if they want to be taken seriously)
9. Richmond - Ben Hobbs (they love Hobbs and would perfectly fit their midfield going forward)
10. Fremantle - Jye Amiss (Fremantle again need to improve their forward line more than anything and they have a KPP to build around here)
11. StKilda - Josh Sinn (i think improving their hbf/wing run and carry should help their drives forward, they have been known to have a one paced midfield for years now)
12. WCE - Matthew Johnson (West Coast love their early performers and would love Sinn, but i think their 2nd target would be Johnson who had a great underage Colts GF performance and gives their midfield a different dimension, a tall composed skillful mid)
13. Essendon - Josh Goater (i think Essendon would be keen for a big mid with explosive pace)
14. Port Adel - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (not only is he best available but he is a SA boy, kindve like with Fremantles picks earlier, the best and homegrown align perfectly for them)
15. GWS - Mac Andrew (im not so sure on this one, he could be snapped up by a couple clubs earlier, but i think he could slide to GWS's 2nd pick)
16. Brisbane - Jacob Van Rooyen (they need a KPP and i think JVR would be a steal at this point in the draft)
17. Richmond - Mitch Owens (i think the tigers may pull the trigger here and pick up a HFF/Mid here)
18. Sydney - Rhett Bazzo (after missing out on DGB last year in favour of McDonald and losing Aliir Aliir, i think Bazzo will help fill a void)
19. GWS (bid) - Josh Fahey (Melbourne trying to steal Fahey because they are smarter than other clubs recruiters)
20. Melbourne - Mitch Knevitt (they have a good recruiting team and Knevitt seems best available
21. Brisbane - Campbell Chesser (a player who has high potential, good speed, clever skills, but just was plagued with injury and poor form)
22. Fremantle - Angus Sheldrick (gaining traction after his WA performances and Colts GF, Fremantle might take another home grown talent here)
23. North Melb - Tyler Sonsie (North picking Sonsie as a possible half forward)
24. Hawthorn - Paul Curtis (one of the best small forwards in the draft pool, i think we might pick him up here)
25. Geelong - Tom Brown (they might pick up son of Paul Brown here, if i had to speculate)
26. Hawthorn - Connor MacDonald (a good all round midfielder who interviews well and i think he would be a good fit for the Hawks)
 
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Sheldrick at 22. Please explain.

I would have liked a more outside player here, and feel like Sheldrick is not the ideal addition to a midfield with Serong and Brayshaw as the emerging young guns.

We also have Brodie, Western, O'Driscoll and Valente who should be looking for midfield opportunities.
 

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Sheldrick at 22. Please explain.

I would have liked a more outside player here, and feel like Sheldrick is not the ideal addition to a midfield with Serong and Brayshaw as the emerging young guns.

We also have Brodie, Western, O'Driscoll and Valente who should be looking for midfield opportunities.

i think at your 3rd pick there arent many good outside runners left and i think Sheldrick gives you a ball hunter in the midfield, Serong, Brayshaw, Mundy and Fyfe make a good midfield, Brodie is ok, but has never blown me away at Gold Coast, more a solid 5th mid who can also play on the flanks, Western is very outside from what i can remember, O'Driscoll and Valente are good backups and could develop, so maybe you're right, would you be looking for more forwards? or hbf's that could develop into wingers perhaps? maybe Hough or Butler would be a better pick here?
 
i think at your 3rd pick there arent many good outside runners left and i think Sheldrick gives you a ball hunter in the midfield, Serong, Brayshaw, Mundy and Fyfe make a good midfield, Brodie is ok, but has never blown me away at Gold Coast, more a solid 5th mid who can also play on the flanks, Western is very outside from what i can remember, O'Driscoll and Valente are good backups and could develop, so maybe you're right, would you be looking for more forwards? or hbf's that could develop into wingers perhaps? maybe Hough or Butler would be a better pick here?
Think outside run is what freo will want if they take Erasmus & Amiss. Still think they might trade 21 back too
 
Phantom Draft 8th November 2021

1. North Melb - Jason Horne-Francis (along with his good form in the SANFL Finals, i think North have made it clear they rate JHF the best talent)
2. Collingwood (Bid) - Nick Daicos (likely to go at 2 as he is too good to not go at 1 or 2)
3. Western (Bid) - Sam Darcy (GWS is looking for good KPP Talent and Darcy is likely the best KPP Talent in this draft)
4. GWS - Josh Gibcus (they have been linked to Mac Andrew, but i think they want a KPD more and they seem to rate Gibcus highly)
5. Gold Coast - Finn Callaghan (they will take the best available at this spot and a quick agile outside/inside mid would suit them)
6. Adelaide - Josh Rachele (Adelaide need scoring power and elite kicking inside 50 and Rachele gives them that)
7. Hawthorn - Josh Ward (i like Hobbs here, but i think Ward fits what we need and theres little difference in quality between Hobbs and Ward)
8. Fremantle - Neil Erasmus (i think he fits Fremantle perfectly, he is a half forw who can play mid at a good level too, Fremantle need more scoring power if they want to be taken seriously)
9. Richmond - Ben Hobbs (they love Hobbs and would perfectly fit their midfield going forward)
10. Fremantle - Jye Amiss (Fremantle again need to improve their forward line more than anything and they have a KPP to build around here)
11. StKilda - Josh Sinn (i think improving their hbf/wing run and carry should help their drives forward, they have been known to have a one paced midfield for years now)
12. WCE - Matthew Johnson (West Coast love their early performers and would love Sinn, but i think their 2nd target would be Johnson who had a great underage Colts GF performance and gives their midfield a different dimension, a tall composed skillful mid)
13. Essendon - Josh Goater (i think Essendon would be keen for a big mid with explosive pace)
14. Port Adel - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (not only is he best available but he is a SA boy, kindve like with Fremantles picks earlier, the best and homegrown align perfectly for them)
15. GWS - Mac Andrew (im not so sure on this one, he could be snapped up by a couple clubs earlier, but i think he could slide to GWS's 2nd pick)
16. Brisbane - Jacob Van Rooyen (they need a KPP and i think JVR would be a steal at this point in the draft)
17. Richmond - Mitch Owens (i think the tigers may pull the trigger here and pick up a HFF/Mid here)
18. Sydney - Rhett Bazzo (after missing out on DGB last year in favour of McDonald and losing Aliir Aliir, i think Bazzo will help fill a void)
19. GWS (bid) - Josh Fahey (Melbourne trying to steal Fahey because they are smarter than other clubs recruiters)
20. Melbourne - Mitch Knevitt (they have a good recruiting team and Knevitt seems best available
21. Brisbane - Campbell Chesser (a player who has high potential, good speed, clever skills, but just was plagued with injury and poor form)
22. Fremantle - Angus Sheldrick (gaining traction after his WA performances and Colts GF, Fremantle might take another home grown talent here)
23. North Melb - Tyler Sonsie (North picking Sonsie as a possible half forward)
24. Hawthorn - Paul Curtis (one of the best small forwards in the draft pool, i think we might pick him up here)
25. Geelong - Tom Brown (they might pick up son of Paul Brown here, if i had to speculate)
26. Hawthorn - Connor MacDonald (a good all round midfielder who interviews well and i think he would be a good fit for the Hawks)
How do you see the next 4 picks going?
 
i think at your 3rd pick there arent many good outside runners left and i think Sheldrick gives you a ball hunter in the midfield, Serong, Brayshaw, Mundy and Fyfe make a good midfield, Brodie is ok, but has never blown me away at Gold Coast, more a solid 5th mid who can also play on the flanks, Western is very outside from what i can remember, O'Driscoll and Valente are good backups and could develop, so maybe you're right, would you be looking for more forwards? or hbf's that could develop into wingers perhaps? maybe Hough or Butler would be a better pick here?
Personally I would be happier with Hough or Butler, but in your draft I would take Draper.

I like Sheldrick. Nothing against him but as Swiggy suggests trading 21 (and possibly still grabbing Sheldrick) is a real possibility.
 
i think a mix of Sam Butler, Zac Taylor, Darcy Wilmot and Arlo Draper probably go in the next 4 or perhaps earlier? depending on clubs wants its hard to predict tbh.
That's quite a good bunch for the Tigers and 1 for the blues!
 
Personally I would be happier with Hough or Butler, but in your draft I would take Draper.

I like Sheldrick. Nothing against him but as Swiggy suggests trading 21 (and possibly still grabbing Sheldrick) is a real possibility.

im pretty sure West Coast at 31 are a good chance of picking him up, so i just thought you might want to pick him up before they can?
 
Fremantle is interesting, if the rumours are true and they are into Jack Williams, it could end up being

pick 8 - Neil Erasmus
pick 10 - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera could be a good option if they go Williams later and i think they would be the only ones willing to take Williams at 22?
pick 22 - Jack Williams

if that does play out, Amiss could goto StKilda and Sinn to WCE who are keen on him, that means Johnson might goto Essendon?, could be interesting to see how the dominos fall if this is true, then who do Port go for Goater, JVR or Owens?
 

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Charlie Dean is an interesting Story, he has recently won the VFL Best Young Player Award and most of the recent winners have made it to the AFL to have good careers, i remember seeing him as an under-ager for Sandringham where he played in defence and i thought he was better in defence than Fischer McAsey who was his team mate at the time, Sandringham had a tonne of KPP Talent and in his draft year he was put into the forward line where he did well early kicking a few bags but didnt seem a natural as a forward and he then started to lose his way, which led to him surprisingly not getting drafted, now that he has returned to defence and done very well in the VFL he is now likely to get picked up, it just shows how fickle recruiting can be, if you dont play your best natural position it could harm your draft potential, but they always have a 2nd chance at the state league level to get it right.
 
Fremantle is interesting, if the rumours are true and they are into Jack Williams, it could end up being

pick 8 - Neil Erasmus
pick 10 - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera could be a good option if they go Williams later and i think they would be the only ones willing to take Williams at 22?
pick 22 - Jack Williams

if that does play out, Amiss could goto StKilda and Sinn to WCE who are keen on him, that means Johnson might goto Essendon?, could be interesting to see how the dominos fall if this is true, then who do Port go for Goater, JVR or Owens?
We have a itk poster on our board posting that his source has said most clubs are aware of who each other will be taking in the first round. This surprises me. Beyond certain clubs and players early, do you think it is realistic? To me it would seem to work against a Club's interest for others to have that kind of intel.
 
We have a itk poster on our board posting that his source has said most clubs are aware of who each other will be taking in the first round. This surprises me. Beyond certain clubs and players early, do you think it is realistic? To me it would seem to work against a Club's interest for others to have that kind of intel.

i think they have a fair idea, i dont think they know exactly, they all talk to each other and share intell, ive seen it at u18 games ect, so it doesnt surprise me, but im sure theres always a handfull of surprises, but them knowing most clubs and their targets doesnt surprise me, watching the recruiters on draft night its almost like they know most clubs and their targets on draft night.
 
Fremantle is interesting, if the rumours are true and they are into Jack Williams, it could end up being

pick 8 - Neil Erasmus
pick 10 - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera could be a good option if they go Williams later and i think they would be the only ones willing to take Williams at 22?
pick 22 - Jack Williams

if that does play out, Amiss could goto StKilda and Sinn to WCE who are keen on him, that means Johnson might goto Essendon?, could be interesting to see how the dominos fall if this is true, then who do Port go for Goater, JVR or Owens?
Think if they want Williams they will try & trade back & get a future 2nd as port did in 2019
 
We have a itk poster on our board posting that his source has said most clubs are aware of who each other will be taking in the first round. This surprises me. Beyond certain clubs and players early, do you think it is realistic? To me it would seem to work against a Club's interest for others to have that kind of intel.
Prospects agents will do the rounds to pump their kid up and let clubs know they'll need to trade into different spots if they want them
 
Prospects agents will do the rounds to pump their kid up and let clubs know they'll need to trade into different spots if they want them
Interesting. I do find it difficult to rationalise when I think through Fremantle's situation. For example, allowing it to be known that the club values/prefers a player (Erasmus for example) opens opportunity for another interested club to trade ahead of them. As seemed to happen with Fremantle trading up to be ahead of Carlton to take Serong.

I am going to hang onto a measure of cynicism for now.
 
Phantom Draft 8th November 2021

1. North Melb - Jason Horne-Francis (along with his good form in the SANFL Finals, i think North have made it clear they rate JHF the best talent)
2. Collingwood (Bid) - Nick Daicos (likely to go at 2 as he is too good to not go at 1 or 2)
3. Western (Bid) - Sam Darcy (GWS is looking for good KPP Talent and Darcy is likely the best KPP Talent in this draft)
4. GWS - Josh Gibcus (they have been linked to Mac Andrew, but i think they want a KPD more and they seem to rate Gibcus highly)
5. Gold Coast - Finn Callaghan (they will take the best available at this spot and a quick agile outside/inside mid would suit them)
6. Adelaide - Josh Rachele (Adelaide need scoring power and elite kicking inside 50 and Rachele gives them that)
7. Hawthorn - Josh Ward (i like Hobbs here, but i think Ward fits what we need and theres little difference in quality between Hobbs and Ward)
8. Fremantle - Neil Erasmus (i think he fits Fremantle perfectly, he is a half forw who can play mid at a good level too, Fremantle need more scoring power if they want to be taken seriously)
9. Richmond - Ben Hobbs (they love Hobbs and would perfectly fit their midfield going forward)
10. Fremantle - Jye Amiss (Fremantle again need to improve their forward line more than anything and they have a KPP to build around here)
11. StKilda - Josh Sinn (i think improving their hbf/wing run and carry should help their drives forward, they have been known to have a one paced midfield for years now)
12. WCE - Matthew Johnson (West Coast love their early performers and would love Sinn, but i think their 2nd target would be Johnson who had a great underage Colts GF performance and gives their midfield a different dimension, a tall composed skillful mid)
13. Essendon - Josh Goater (i think Essendon would be keen for a big mid with explosive pace)
14. Port Adel - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (not only is he best available but he is a SA boy, kindve like with Fremantles picks earlier, the best and homegrown align perfectly for them)
15. GWS - Mac Andrew (im not so sure on this one, he could be snapped up by a couple clubs earlier, but i think he could slide to GWS's 2nd pick)
16. Brisbane - Jacob Van Rooyen (they need a KPP and i think JVR would be a steal at this point in the draft)
17. Richmond - Mitch Owens (i think the tigers may pull the trigger here and pick up a HFF/Mid here)
18. Sydney - Rhett Bazzo (after missing out on DGB last year in favour of McDonald and losing Aliir Aliir, i think Bazzo will help fill a void)
19. GWS (bid) - Josh Fahey (Melbourne trying to steal Fahey because they are smarter than other clubs recruiters)
20. Melbourne - Mitch Knevitt (they have a good recruiting team and Knevitt seems best available
21. Brisbane - Campbell Chesser (a player who has high potential, good speed, clever skills, but just was plagued with injury and poor form)
22. Fremantle - Angus Sheldrick (gaining traction after his WA performances and Colts GF, Fremantle might take another home grown talent here)
23. North Melb - Tyler Sonsie (North picking Sonsie as a possible half forward)
24. Hawthorn - Paul Curtis (one of the best small forwards in the draft pool, i think we might pick him up here)
25. Geelong - Tom Brown (they might pick up son of Paul Brown here, if i had to speculate)
26. Hawthorn - Connor MacDonald (a good all round midfielder who interviews well and i think he would be a good fit for the Hawks)
I like it.
Think there is a chance that Daicos/Darcy are swapped, but either way about right.
Think you are spot on, I think GWS need a key defender than they do another mid at this point. After Davis and Keefe retire, they only have Taylor, Stein and Buckley. And Gibcus said he doesn't mind moving given he has lived almost everywhere, so there may not be that go home factor thats happened with some of their players.

Callahan would fit the suns. Imagine a midfield of Rowell. Anderson. Miller. Hollands. Callahan. Add in Davies and Sharp too.

But they would be more than happy with Gibcus given they do need to add to their key defender stocks. Though they did just pick up Brock who is a key defender.
 
I like it.
Think there is a chance that Daicos/Darcy are swapped, but either way about right.
Think you are spot on, I think GWS need a key defender than they do another mid at this point. After Davis and Keefe retire, they only have Taylor, Stein and Buckley. And Gibcus said he doesn't mind moving given he has lived almost everywhere, so there may not be that go home factor thats happened with some of their players.

Callahan would fit the suns. Imagine a midfield of Rowell. Anderson. Miller. Hollands. Callahan. Add in Davies and Sharp too.

But they would be more than happy with Gibcus given they do need to add to their key defender stocks. Though they did just pick up Brock who is a key defender.

if i could make a change it would be that Mac Andrew goes earlier, it seems theres a few clubs interested early and he is nearly a lock to go top 10 possibly top 5, seems some clubs are very keen on him.
 
if i could make a change it would be that Mac Andrew goes earlier, it seems theres a few clubs interested early and he is nearly a lock to go top 10 possibly top 5, seems some clubs are very keen on him.
Would GWS take him that high? I wonder if given the choice between Andrew or Gibcus (if Callahan is off the board) who Suns would decide to go with.
Definitely worthy though. I know they say the only thing is his size, but give him a few pre-seasons, surely he'll fill out. Has put on 10k (from 70 to 80kg) this year in itself.
 
Charlie Dean is an interesting Story, he has recently won the VFL Best Young Player Award and most of the recent winners have made it to the AFL to have good careers, i remember seeing him as an under-ager for Sandringham where he played in defence and i thought he was better in defence than Fischer McAsey who was his team mate at the time, Sandringham had a tonne of KPP Talent and in his draft year he was put into the forward line where he did well early kicking a few bags but didnt seem a natural as a forward and he then started to lose his way, which led to him surprisingly not getting drafted, now that he has returned to defence and done very well in the VFL he is now likely to get picked up, it just shows how fickle recruiting can be, if you dont play your best natural position it could harm your draft potential, but they always have a 2nd chance at the state league level to get it right.

He ran a 6:10 on the strava run. Top top-end endurance that is
 
from the vision of training day as Cal Twomey tweeted Josh Rachele looked the best on field(very sharp compared to some other top 10 prospects and quick, looked like he was doing AFL Drills already), probably boosting his draft profile a little(could be top 5 like i predicted last year) and also Sam Darcy measuring in at 205.5cm giving him a touch more height, if he can continue as a KPP instead of a ruckman that height could be very valuable in contests at the highest level.
 
ok some rumours just in, lets go with them and see how the top 10 works out if true (GC and Haw trade potentially?)

1. North - JHF
2. Coll - Daicos
3. Western - Darcy
4. GWS - Andrew
5. Haw - Callaghan
6. Adel - Rachele
7. GC - Amiss
8. Frem - Erasmus
9. Rich - Hobbs
10. Frem - Johnson
11. StKilda - Ward
12. WCE - Sinn
 

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