Do you start with Ablett

[Bifrost]

Hold on, is this the DT forum or the SC forum?

OF COURSE YOU HAVE HIM FROM THE START!!

Unless he cops some debilitating injury in the pre-season, Gazza is the single best player in SC by some margin and almost always the best captain. A player who can bag you over 400 points as captain cannot be considered an upgrade option - who are you going to upgrade to him??

I reckon you'd be mad not to pick him up, almost regardless of the price (and the number of games he tends to miss - 3 in 2009).

 

[hodgeisboss]

how long can the best player in the league stay on top? eventually he won't be the best, he'll either get overtaken by an up and comer, or slow down with age or an injury may strike him out of the blue. look what happened with judd and voss. everyone thought judd was god around 5 years ago.
Im in the group thats prepared not to pick him at the start and just see what happens. Its a risk either way. ill be taking selwood and pendlebury instead of ablett and a cheapy

 

[Impromptu]

Impromptu is back for 2010!!

Hope everyone had a great break and a Happy New Year

Walesy - count me in for TooSerious competition

I for one, am actually thinking of not having Ablett as a starter...

 

[stkildathunda]

how long can the best player in the league stay on top? eventually he won't be the best, he'll either get overtaken by an up and comer, or slow down with age or an injury may strike him out of the blue. look what happened with judd and voss. everyone thought judd was god around 5 years ago.
Im in the group thats prepared not to pick him at the start and just see what happens. Its a risk either way. ill be taking selwood and pendlebury instead of ablett and a cheapy

Think im leaning the same way as you. Im worried his motivation wont be there as much since he's won his brownlow and apparently they won another flag (wiped it from my memory). With the extra 150K-300K you can upgrade a rookie to another superstar and make up the points there. Plus he plays Freo in rnd 3 who he hasnt scored well against in the past so could be nice price plummet if that trend keeps up for a handy trade in around rnd 6-7.

 

[deledio_gun]

Think im leaning the same way as you. Im worried his motivation wont be there as much since he's won his brownlow and apparently they won another flag (wiped it from my memory). With the extra 150K-300K you can upgrade a rookie to another superstar and make up the points there. Plus he plays Freo in rnd 3 who he hasnt scored well against in the past so could be nice price plummet if that trend keeps up for a handy trade in around rnd 6-7.

Firstly, i am still deciding on the ablett situation so this is not a bias post.

Hypothetical question to you or anyone who wants to answer, he does drop $100k (approx $650k) by Round 6 after struggling againast Fremantle. How do you trade him in without losing a premium you have which I would see as wasting trades.

 

[Hondo]

You're right. As i said a few posts back even at $650K he is still a hard upgrade target to reach so early. Rookies might be up to $250K-$300K by then if you are lucky. So you'll still be $350K short . Sounds like a 3-trade job to me.

It's easier to work your team out with him it from the start IMO rather than trying to do it via trades later on.

 

[Jobe Watson]

Gotta have him. His captain points are worth more than the say 40-50 extra points you'll get each week from having another gun in you team over a mid-priced player. Plenty of value in the low-to-mid priced players this year, shouldn't be too much of a hassle to fit him in and still have a solid team.

 

[Impromptu]

Firstly, i am still deciding on the ablett situation so this is not a bias post.

Hypothetical question to you or anyone who wants to answer, he does drop $100k (approx $650k) by Round 6 after struggling againast Fremantle. How do you trade him in without losing a premium you have which I would see as wasting trades.

Leave $400K in the pocket I guess and hope one of your mid rookie gains $200K and during this time you hope one of your premiums scores near par..

so even if ablett avearges say 140 and my replace scores say 110..then you hope he drops at the right time when your rookie (even if not peaked)..

but like i said still working it out...but it's risky not havinig ablett (yes I know)

 

[deledio_gun]

I suppose it comes down to the debate over how much in the saving of money worth etc as if your situation goes something like this;

Start with another premium until say round 7 when a rookie has gained money and ablett drops some margin;
Premium score 115 x 2 (Capt) = 230 a week and save $150k

With ablett you will use an extra $150k but you will score;
Ablett 130 x 2 (Capt) = 260 a week

So over the course of 7 weeks you will save maybe $150k by trading in ablett meanwhile using a trade and being 210 points worse off.

So essentially you are choosing in this hypothetical situation;

1. Ablett gives you an extra 210 points to Round 7 plus an extra trade
2. Not having ablett gives you 210 less, one less trade plus $150k

 

[Walesy]

Put simply. If Ablett gets his average, and plays 20 games, you're well behind the 8 ball if you don't have him.

The questions you have to answer to yourself are:

Will he continue his blinding average.
Will he play 20+ games.

 

[AssassinAndy]

Ill be starting with him this year despite the hefty price tag. Am finding with the footyplanner that I can still put together what looks a solid team with Ablett included. Was my first attempt at SC last season and I didnt start with him and paid the price early. Also takes the worry of who to select as captain each week. Im going for an overall ranking increase in SC this year and not as worried about league position so Ablett is a must have for me. If he does happen to get injured for an extended period of time during the year, the trading options that open up will be endless so it won't be the end of the world.

 

[Double the Fist]

I think he is on a modified training program at the moment. Any ideas as to what is delaying him? Any news of injuries may just provide the tipping point as to getting him or not.
We will know after NAB cup.

BTW didnt have him at the start of last year. Cost me three trades and a lot of crap from mates

 

[Colson]

I'm still up in the air about wether to get him. seems to me like maybe selwood would be a good option and the have around 150,000 more to spend on another good player. Selwood will improve this year again and im not sure on his average but it should be about 100.
I had Ablett from the start of the year last year, its a tough question

 

[Judd_Magic]

Impromptu is back for 2010!!

Hope everyone had a great break and a Happy New Year

Walesy - count me in for TooSerious competition

I for one, am actually thinking of not having Ablett as a starter...

Ha! Ha!

Welcome back Prompts, hope you had a good xmas and new years eve, etc.

TO Ablett or not to Ablett? I will try and fit him in at the start but will be watching him in the NAB Cup closely.

 

[Impromptu]

Ha! Ha!

Welcome back Prompts, hope you had a good xmas and new years eve, etc.

TO Ablett or not to Ablett? I will try and fit him in at the start but will be watching him in the NAB Cup closely.

Hey Judd_Magic - ready for another year of comedy, laughter, tears, tension, anger, cursing? lol

I can't wait until Supercoach is up....LOL..

I am leaning towards not having Ablett....but I'll definitely leave some cash in the bank, in case I need him in round 2-3...LOL..

 

[Judd_Magic]

Hey Judd_Magic - ready for another year of comedy, laughter, tears, tension, anger, cursing? lol

I can't wait until Supercoach is up....LOL..

I am leaning towards not having Ablett....but I'll definitely leave some cash in the bank, in case I need him in round 2-3...LOL..

Yeah mate I'm looking forward to all the LOLs around here this season and all the tension and drama that follows.

I'm sure that I'll have my fair share of rants and the odd stupid trade where I will be thinking to myself "what on Earth did you just do?" (Cough, cough, Taylor Walker, cough)

Hope leaving Ablett out doesn't ream you Prompts, you would be brave not to start him but then if it works out I will be hailing you as the second coming of Jesus! ROFL!

 

[footyhack]

i'm going to flip a coin on it this year worked ok last year

 

[33CAT]

Of course you start with him.

He's just too hard to try and upgrade too. If he does drop to a reachable price it most likely wont be til the second half of the season, meaning your headache will last at least 12 weeks, and to get him your going to have to use a reasonable priced player along with a rookie that has earnt you cash to get him.

Why put yourself through all this, just get him from the start, put him as captain and worry about other players.

If you dont have him, your the underdog in every league match you play against someone that does has him.

Dont think about it, just select him from the start!!!!

 

[BlueGibbs2011]

Sometimes you can look at it from different viewpoints. I have my team right now with Ablett in.

But if i want to change...i could have either of the following two combos:

• Ablett (capt x2) and Prem rookie
• Selwood/Swan (capt x2) and Cotchin/Palmer etc.

Becomes a very close call in the end with a slight points leaning to keeping ablett based on captaincy points..but higher risk in that more money is locked away on one player.

In the end, it is about analyzing whether you think Ablett will maintain status quo in scoring (he wont improve surely), or whether he might slide to 130 or slightly lower ave based on Geelong/Ablett achieving everything they needed to. It is also about analysing whether his replacement combo (example provided is Selwood) will improve, e.g rise to 110+ average.

The decision is not clearcut at all.

 

[I LOVE THE CFC]

Good advice 33CAT sounds like you may finally learnt your lesson on the matter

 

[borrat]

ablett is a stone cold certainty for me but there is a tiny bit of doubt in my mind about him

but a good 150+ score like against adelaide at t.d last year in the nab cup(providing he plays) will well and truly get rid of any doubt for me

 

[Tim H]

is the pope catholic?

Born Jewish just like Jesus.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

In terms of a strategy, we know 90% of the top 2000 players will all have Ablett. As a point of difference, it might be worth the risk to leave him out.

If you are a top 2000 player and have Ablett you are in the mix with 2000 other good players who are all chances to win. Means hardly any gains for the serious player as Ablett represents the status quo!!

If you did take the risk to omit him, and he does fall over somehow, score or injury-wise, you'd be in a group of 100 decent SC players who don't have him. This would then put you front and centre for a huge result if the rest of your is class, and you can manage your trades well!

That logic is flawed. If he falls over, the other 90% will be able to trade him for anyone else in the game straight up. The only advantage you'd get is not wasting a trade and maybe one low week if he falls over mid game. Dunno if that is worth it

 

[BlueGibbs2011]

That logic is flawed. If he falls over, the other 90% will be able to trade him for anyone else in the game straight up. The only advantage you'd get is not wasting a trade and maybe one low week if he falls over mid game. Dunno if that is worth it

Not flawed as you have stated two decent reasons drums but just short changed me. 1) You could end up with multiple weeks of low scores based on Geelong's precautionary approach with Ablett and his hamstrings/quads, and 2) if you AREan Ablett fan, the process could involve 2-4 trades...one to remove him, and 2-3 to get him back in if he is a staple part of your team.

The other advantage that should not be overlooked is that in most cases, you can have Ablett + premium rookie vs say Selwood + mid range player. If that injury hits Ablett, the scoreboard each week will be Selwood + midrange player vs premium rookie + rookie for maybe 2-4 weeks if you keep Ablett on the bench. That is a considerable advantage if you would like to take the risk against Ablett.

Of course, you can say "you cant pick or not pick a player based on the fact that he might be injured" which is true to point...BUT...there is no doubt that if did fall over early in the season, the above scenario hands non Abletter's a decent head start given 90% of the market has him as a lock.

In reality, my personal team will not have him, and my wife's team will to cover off on the outside chance he falls over taking 752k of value with him

 

[lozza63]

Lol love that one BlueGibbs "the wife's team will have GAJ". That is an excellent hedging strategy.

Re: Murph - i was really considering him prior to his surgery, not only because of his near flawless season last year, as evidenced by his 30 goals - absolutely stunning return as i was one who felt he had major deficiencies with that at the start of the year.

I guess i am asking u if you will pick him in ur team's mids this year? Loved the synopsis on your team board re SC potential as well!