Metalcrusher
A God Amongst The People
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Opinion Do You Think We Will Take A Step Backwards?
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JustaBattler
Everyone Looks Better In Blue
- May 31, 2012
- 27,053
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- AFL Club
- Carlton
Got to improve strength and endurance across the board before we can expect sustainable improvement.
I expect sustainable improvement.
For our rebuild we have had 3 years of pruning the list. IMO the pruning has been almost faultless.
We will have had 3 years rebuilding the list once we get in players for picks 3 and 10. IMO the rebuilding has been strategic and tactical genius. Gathering an extra 2018 2nd round pick is part of the foresight.
We have had 2 seasons improving strength and endurance in our many, so far highly successful, draft picks.
Next year I can see us playing 22 who can actually play football, now.
Docherty, Jones, Marchbank
Byrne, Weitering, Simpson
SPS, Cripps, E Curnow
SOJ, Caz, Cuningham
Pickett, C. Curnow, McKay
Kreuzer, Murphy, Kennedy
I/C Plowman, Williamson, Lang, Wright
Em: Macreadie, Rowe, Fisher, Kerridge, Lamb.
Then we have picks 3 and 10, Polson and Kerr who will need to continue to improve strength and endurance but one out of this 4 coming on and playing most weeks would not surprise.
Unlike 2016 and 2017 we no longer have to put up, most weeks, with players who are getting a game NOT because they are good enough but because we simply didn't have enough on the list who were to challenge them.
Obviously a number of our younger players were given games w/o being really ready - Macreadie, Williamson, SPS, Cuningham, Pickett, Fisher, Polson. Further, we have had to play a rotating group of older players most weeks who frankly would not have been given games at any other club: Daisy, Armfield, Graham, White, Smedts, Sumner.
Our round 1 team this year included: SOJ (still developing), Armfield, Daisy, Charlie (still developing), Macreadie, SPS, Pickett, Smedts and White.
As 3rd year players SOJ, Charlie, Harry and Cuningham will have had 2 full preseasons in them and should be ready to show at least 80% of their potential.
It turned out SPS could play at the level from the get go but that doesn't mean he won't be a much improved player next year after a full preseason.
Because footy is a team sport it is often the weakest link in the team that is most important to the success or failure of the team. We have had, every game for the last 2 years, multiple weak links. Before the 2016 and 2017 seasons began I said winning games was completely irrelevant. To my very great surprise we have been competitive (and even won) in games where we had no right to on paper. One way of covering up weak links is to have a great game plan. BB has delivered that.
Our rebuild is not complete. Our aged under 22 players, (eleven of whom I have selected in our best 22, even not including pick 3 and 10), obviously have significant upside.
But I expect with 22 AFL ready footballers to play each week we are going to win at least as many as we lose. How many more will depend on injuries, further development, the playing fixture and luck. BB will need to play to win in 2018 and I expect a significant resetting of our defensive game plan to ensure we can score more heavily to do just that. Bring it on.
I think the short term future (next season) looks grim. A couple of injuries to the wrong soldiers and we could be exposed badly in the middle. Longer term I think we will be OK, a couple of more pre-seasons into SPS, Pick 3, Pick 10 etc and we will be better able to run out the season but shorter term we are vulnerable to losing some key players at the wrong times. of course we could be really lucky with injuries and all our veterans go unscathed.
Interesting
21 and under: 10 (2 × 4th years, 6 x 3rd years, 2 × 2nd years)
22-28: 7
29+: 5
Whilst the age profile is still severely lop-sided in the 22, a majority of the younger guys will have had multiple pre-seasons under their belt and most have played at least 20 games.
Thus, we can confidently expect a couple (maybe more) of them to become consistent top 10 performers.
Charlie is already there, I'm looking at Weiters (almost there), SPS and Jack as the next most likely.
- Moderator
- #284
Best you chose another sport to follow.
Why is that?
- Moderator
- #286
According to you, our midfield is looking deplorable and you may lose interest by the bye round.
Also you 'can't handle much more of this bullshit bottom of the ladder s**t'
I'm not expecting us to go further next year mainly due to the fact we are still waiting for our players to develop both mentally as well as physically. So many of the "new group" are in the 18-22yo bracket which means they are still newbies in this caper.
We need a large chunk of them to get up around the 50-60 game mark too because they should have learnt more about the game itself by then.
I always think back to the first few years of GWS when they had a bunch of young twigs running around getting belted most weeks. Fast forward to now and they are a certain finalist for the next decade.
It may take a little time to click but it should all happen within a short space of time when it does, then it will be strap on the safety belt, we will be in for a rapid rise.
We need a large chunk of them to get up around the 50-60 game mark too because they should have learnt more about the game itself by then.
I always think back to the first few years of GWS when they had a bunch of young twigs running around getting belted most weeks. Fast forward to now and they are a certain finalist for the next decade.
It may take a little time to click but it should all happen within a short space of time when it does, then it will be strap on the safety belt, we will be in for a rapid rise.
With natural improvement I'd say we'll hold our ground. Then it's all sunshine from 2019/20 onwards.
I think people really underestimate Gibbs' impact. Particularly his ball use going into the forward 50.
Ball use has been horrible going into the forward 50 the last few years, Gibbs is a huge loss there in my opinion.
You are totally entitled to your opinion PP even if it is seen as unpopular amongst the masses here.
Don't go changing.
I think Kennedy will do some of that heavy lifting too.
It's not all doom & gloom but we should be prepared for some 'ugly' games along the way.
Hard to tell with so many young kids. I thought this year we were really helped by the form and fitness of Kruezer Murphy Gibbs & Docherty. Losing Gibbs will hurt. He played some great footy this season.
Kennedy Lang and a fit Curnow & Cripps will really help. I expect Weitering Marchbank Charlie Cuningham Plowman to really step up. Improvement in Fisher SPS Williamson Macreadie Silvagni McKay & Kerr will help. Pickett I have high hopes to make a big difference.
Then can our newbies play some footy. Once again we need to balance winning with development.
All in all if we have another year like 2017 and get more games into the kids I will be happy. I have always thought it was about possible finals in 2019 and really stepping up in 2020. Nothing for me has changed but we are still well on track (even a bit ahead)
Kennedy Lang and a fit Curnow & Cripps will really help. I expect Weitering Marchbank Charlie Cuningham Plowman to really step up. Improvement in Fisher SPS Williamson Macreadie Silvagni McKay & Kerr will help. Pickett I have high hopes to make a big difference.
Then can our newbies play some footy. Once again we need to balance winning with development.
All in all if we have another year like 2017 and get more games into the kids I will be happy. I have always thought it was about possible finals in 2019 and really stepping up in 2020. Nothing for me has changed but we are still well on track (even a bit ahead)
We are still a bottom 4 team IMO. Defensively we are solid and the foundations are there with Weitering, Marchbank, Plowman and Doc... and Jones of course 
Midfield needs time but I am worried that we will be bullied inside next year.
Forward line is simply non-existent. Hopefully getting David Teague up there we can have some form of structure but if we aren't able to kick 100 points in a game then we are not going to be competitive most weeks.
Realistically I think 6-8 wins again, best case scenario 10 wins, worst case scenario 4 wins.
Midfield needs time but I am worried that we will be bullied inside next year.
Forward line is simply non-existent. Hopefully getting David Teague up there we can have some form of structure but if we aren't able to kick 100 points in a game then we are not going to be competitive most weeks.
Realistically I think 6-8 wins again, best case scenario 10 wins, worst case scenario 4 wins.
In my selected 22 I see Cripps and Murphy as A-grade. E Curnow, SPS and Kennedy as proven B-graders with the last 2 having upside. We are going to need help from Docherty, Lang, Cuningham, C. Curnow, Wright and Pickett but except for Wright all could improve significantly as mids from last season. And outside the 22 pick 3 and 10, Fisher, Kerridge, Lamb and Boekhorst (last 4 games only) can play roles.
Compare us with the best 22 for the premiers, Richmond: Cotchin and Martin are A-grade. Prestia, Caddy, Grigg, Lambert and Edwards are, arguably, B graders. B Ellis and Graham are C graders, although Graham seems to have a bullet based on his game in the GF.
Do you really think our midfield next year can't cope with the premiers? I have given them 2 more proven B graders but I would back Docherty and Charlie to step up to that grade next year if Williamson can step up down back and Harry can step up at FF. And Lang, Cuningham and Pickett (if with a tank) could all become B graders.
Sure Gibbs is a loss to the midfield but . . . missing Cripps and Ed was a much bigger loss to our midfield at the end of last season. And you would have to grant that Kennedy and Lang might have some uses.
I accept that the Tigers midfield is not their strength. Sydney, GWS, Adelaide and probably Geelong all have stronger and deeper midfields. Much good that did them when it counted.
The point I draw from this is that GAME PLAN is critical. I do not write off our midfield and I have every reason so far to admire BB's work with the game plan when he didn't have teams full of AFL ready players. Next year he will have those teams. Bring it on.
Fair point, but I think it was exacerbated this year by Cripps' impact injuries and E Curnow going down, which forced Murph and Gibbs to play more on the inside. A fit Cripps + Curnow + the kids, makes for a balanced centre square unit, and after another year's drafting & development we're set to have much better injury cover this time round.
The Tigers have Dusty which is a huge point of difference. Like Dangerfield, he makes their midfield look a lot better than it is.
The Tigers may not be blessed with a great deal of talent, but what won them a flag was the way they all played their role and provided pressure. Still think we are miles off in the pressure department, particularly in the middle of the ground.
JustaBattler
Everyone Looks Better In Blue
- May 31, 2012
- 27,053
- 63,376
- AFL Club
- Carlton
We are still a bottom 4 team IMO. Defensively we are solid and the foundations are there with Weitering, Marchbank, Plowman and Doc... and Jones of course
Midfield needs time but I am worried that we will be bullied inside next year.
Forward line is simply non-existent. Hopefully getting David Teague up there we can have some form of structure but if we aren't able to kick 100 points in a game then we are not going to be competitive most weeks.
Realistically I think 6-8 wins again, best case scenario 10 wins, worst case scenario 4 wins.
It is a logical error to conclude from the fact we didn't kick 100 points last season that it follows we aren't able to kick 100 points.
IMO the BB game plan last year did not allow us to kick 100 pints. For example, in our win against the Hawks we kicked our last goal at the 14 minute mark and established a 14 point lead. I thought we needed another goal to be safe and was distressed to see us waste time without attempting to score from then on. As it happens we won. But BB didn't care about that. What he wanted to see was the players executing the defensive game plan which involved keeping possession of the ball which required team mates to create space for other team mates to run into to mark precision kicks. The whole of 2016 and 2017 should be seen as practice.
Next year will also be practice but we now need to practice something other than just defending well. That something else will involve scoring now that the players recruited in the rebuild to play forward- McKay, Charlie, SOJ, Pickett - should be ready to show what they are capable of, if not necessarily on a regular basis. I am looking forward to seeing the structures BB puts in place as part of the game plan to make the forward line productive.
Remember, a game plan is dependent on the players available since a good game plan is one that enhances the strengths that players have and minimises their weaknesses. So, a game plan that was built around quick low forward entries to Caz in the pocket would not make use of his contested marking ability and would maximise his weakness at kicking for goal.
BB has much to work with. Caz is as good a contested mark as there is in the AFL. Like with Spalding in 1995 this can be used. McKay is tall, reasonably quick and aggressive. This can be used. Pickett is very quick and strong overhead. SOJ can find space on the forward line - no easy skill. Wright is a goal converter.
Last season BB used a centre bounce tactic of starting most of our forwards at the back of the square and running forward from there. This proved very dangerous when we won the ball, gave us added numbers at the contest if there was one and helped our forwards to flood back if we did not win the ball. I saw other clubs use this tactic also, but not so well. Of course game plans are strategic not tactical but the 2 feed off each other.
Realistically I think finals are a prospect (Richmond came from 13th last year ffs) and would be disappointed if we did not win 10. I think we should finish above Gold Coast, Freo, Norf, Eagles, Saints, Hawks, Pies and Brissie. And as long as Cripps is fit and firing I don't fear any of the teams not named from Richmond down (except maybe Geelong with Selwood, Danger, Ablett and Duncan).
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