Opinion Do You Think We Will Take A Step Backwards?

[therubbernub]

Theyve been fast tracked through simply being played before their time and all have looked up to it

I agree, and as an example as to how it could play out , look at how the essendon youngsters that played in 2016 came on and had great 2017's when added to the older brigade

 

[bluemahogany]

I feel like the depth of the midfield will really help us out, we lose one but should gain four in Kennedy, Lang and picks 3 and 10. That's assuming 3 and 10 are ready to go round 1.

 

[Juddernaut08]

The Doggies and Tigers success in the last two seasons might suggest that we need to look at progress differently.

Tigers finished 13th in 2016, added some players (some i still dont rate) and were still a laughing stock halfway through 2017.

Dogs finished 7th in 2016.

Flags are obvioulsy the ultimate measure of improvement but the truth is often you don't know how good you are until you get there.

Tigers did have multiple years where they were finishing around the 5th mark though. They were shocking in finals, however it's not like they came from nowhere.

It's more reminiscent of Geelong 2007 then a fluke.

 

[Windhover]

There is much of your post I agree with JAB so I have left it out. It is our differences that make a discussion interesting. So,

At the same time serious investment was made in younger faster more skillful players like : SPS/Cuningham/Pickett/Fisher/Polson/LeBois/Curnow - some of whom haven't featured in AFL much to date.

When you think about it we actually haven't made that serious an investment into faster more skillful players. In 3 trade periods and 2 drafts we have "spent" pick 6 (SPS) and pick 27 (Fisher) last year and pick 12 (Charlie) and pick 23 in 2016 (Cuningham) out of all our 1st and 2nd round picks. Pickett, Polson, LeBois cost us peanuts. And you have to remember bringing in those faster players only covers the loss of skillful, faster players like Tuohy, Armfield, Yarran, Sumner, Gallucci, Judd and Walker. IMO with pick 3 and 10 we will want to increase our quotient of skillful faster players. That will be a serious investment.

Gibbs' loss will be felt not so much as a person who was able to win a match off his own boot - but more his ability to control play - a major element of the side's ability to play 'keepings off' and to buy time - he was a great at keepings off player because mostly his kicking and handballing execution was elite - much better than Murphy for example.

First, the loss of Gibbs will be felt whenever we need a really accomplished player to do a job. He was a fantastic utility.

Secondly, I do not agree he is a more skillful ball user than Murphy. I would have it the other way round. You are entitled to your opinion but, to the extent that statistics are facts (they aren't quite the same thing) and to the extent that facts matter (the comparison is largely subjective but some objectivity must be permitted) I would proffer the following to support my claim:

Stats for 2017
1. Murphy - 22 games, 29.8 possies, 16.4 kicks, 396.5 m gained, 73% disposal efficiency, 4.4 ave inside 50s 11 goals 9 behinds.
2. Gibbs - 22 games, 26.8 possies, 16.5 kicks, 381.2 m gained, 70% disposal efficiency, 3.6 ave inside 50s, 17 goals, 13 behinds.

It likely follows that Murphy's kicks are longer, more accurate and more of them are inside 50swhere the risk reward equation makes inaccuracy less of a problem. Objectively these stats support my subjective impression (but don't prove) Murphy is a better ball user than Gibbs. That Gibbs has more goals and a better ratio of goals to behinds is simply a reflection of the fact that Gibbs played forward more (and could therefore get closer to goal).

If the young kids take the next steps as a group, sooner rather than later - Gibb's importance and loss wont be that hard to cover - because Bolton's game plan is based on a team wide pattern of movement and kicking ability - not focused on individual players.

SPS|Cuningham|Charlie|Pickett|Fisher all have to learn to create turnovers and use the ball with each other much better - Cripps/Kreuzer/Ed/Kennedy will halve the clearances at least.

Agreed. I also note Lang and Kennedy both seem to like tackling which I think is a very significant attraction.

Up front - Teague has to start building a forward line movement that creates space and one on ones - Carlton has to dump the long bomb caper for except last resort defensive set up situations in forward 50.

The long bomb has a place as a tactic within the forward line strategy. Defenders who would like to sneak up the ground have to linger back. Spare backmen have to be ready to run and be 3rd man up to compete against Caz, Charlie or, hopefully, McKay. This reduces the opposition's ability to create the 3rd man further up the field when it can be harder to defend. Being able to employ the long bomb means NOT having to muck around with the ball waiting to find the free player whilst the Richmond players start tackling in swarms. Caz and Charlie are among the best one out contested marks in the game. The long bomb has a place as a tactic, not as but within a strategy. (MM used the long bomb down the line as a strategy. This was hopeless because the opposition were waiting for the long bomb, in numbers, and were then ready to kill us on the counter-attack).

 

[Gethelred]

My thoughts on next year are multifaceted, and for the first time I'm actually struggling to make my expectation match what reality should dictate, as unless a number of things go genuinely pear-shaped, I can see us coming anywhere from 10th to 5th, purely drawn from a combination of match fitness to the youth we've already seen - known quantities in SPS, Charlie, Fish, and to a lesser extent Boekhurst and Pickett (not as young, and Boekhurst has at least had sufficient time to prove whether or not he's up to it) getting through another preseason, and where they were out on their feet halfway through the third now they'll not only be fitter, they'll have the experience to know they can push through that exhaustion - and improvement in amount of contributors. Gibbs being out hurts - badly - as he was something of a cornerstone of the gameplan - effort and silk intertwined - but by the amount of players we now have who can run through the middle and gather clearances - Cripps, Curnow, Charlie, SPS, Murphy, Wright, Kruezer, Kerridge, and now Kennedy and potentially Lang; not to mention the midfielder or two we may pick up with 3, 10 and 30 - we should hopefully be able to cover his contributions across the board rather than individually.

Just that fitness, on top of this year's results, has us winning some of those close games, and staying close in a few more.

Why have I not mentioned development? For a very simple reason; while some of our players do need to work on their disposal/skills, or spend time on the park or in the gym, there are at least three - SPS, Charlie, Pickett - who have proven they can already. Charlie made a late run for the rising star, and SPS has already won a game off his own performances against Collingwood, and has demonstrated none of Murphy's predilections for the hacked kick or miscued handpass within a stoppage, finding space in close and hitting passes that should be impossible. Pickett has been inches away from being the best trade we've gotten out of GWS several times this season gone, and that is with those familiar with his injury telling us that this season was, for him and us, a write off as he relearned how to run.

All these players need to do to become more than just contributors is to do it all more often. Of these three, Pickett is the furthest away, and yet he's still just so close to being a genuine A+ wing - to all those who think he'll be a high pressure forward, take a look at his shots for goal this year. Either he's operating under a team mandate of lower the eyes, regardless of where/who you are or how much space you've got and it's interfering with natural instincts, or he just doesn't want to be the one to kick those goals. He doesn't come across as a natural forward to me, but he does have the ability to get hard ball and gets to the right spots to receive it - that all it would take is three weeks where he realises just how good he could be before he breaks loose.

Then - THEN! - add in picks 3 (LDU, Cerra, Rayner) and picks 10 (Coffield, Brayshaw, Fogarty, Constable) and you've got a series of players that can step straight into the ones and contribute, provided that like SPS their attitude and work ethic earn it.

Again all of this is contingent on everything not going pear-pearshaped, either via a breakdown in message - Bolts being revealed as a serial killer - or injuries curtailing young development in very specific ways. A modest improvement could see us win nine games, but to date Bolts has exceeded every conservative estimation I've had. Add to that the fact that, despite us being down the bottom of the ladder the last few years, our draw hasn't really reflected that at all, as we've had to tour Sydney, Perth, and Adelaide - at times where sides played there are top eight - and Richmond/Footscray being surprise packets has meant that the supposedly weak draws we should've been getting were a mite stronger than they should be. I'll wait for the draw to be released before I truly think we're a smokey for finals, but realistically coming third last should gift us an easier draw than others, or at least key home games against opponents near our level. Win those, and we're well on our way.

And, finally, there is the fact that the best teams are just so vulnerable at the moment. Richmond gave us no great shakes either time we played them this season, despite having Dusty play outside himself both times. Melbourne got over us because - and only because - of injuries occurring during the match, and they switched their gameplan to run us around, exhaust us; there are plenty of examples this season of good sides - GWS, Adelaide, Richmond, Sydney - getting beaten by far worse sides. Until a great side steps up again, we're fair shakes against everyone on our day.

Provided we attack next year like we did the second half of this one - with a vastly more attacking mindset - I see no ceiling. It's easy to underestimate us based on our defensive gameplan, and on our rearguard efforts after Cripps and Curnow went down. I can't see the players, or Bolts for that matter, being content spending another season in the bottom 4; after a few weeks, winning becomes a habit, then something you simply do.

I can't wait for next year!

 

[Malifice]

I'm looking at 12th with 10 wins.

10 was a pass for me pre Gibbs.

Ive now adjusted it down to 8.

Thats still more than last year so its an improvement.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Probably a slight step backwards next year but then we will rise quite quickly in 2019.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

10 was a pass for me pre Gibbs.

Ive now adjusted it down to 8.

Thats still more than last year so its an improvement.

Fair enough. I make no such allowances. If Kennedy has similar output to this year (I'd be hoping for an improvement, but assuming he at least doesn't go backwards), he covers 2/3 of Gibbs' output. Natural progression from Curnow, SOS, SPS, Fisher, Cuningham, Williamson and Pickett should easily cover the rest.

 

[therubbernub]

The long bomb has a place as a tactic within the forward line strategy. Defenders who would like to sneak up the ground have to linger back. Spare backmen have to be ready to run and be 3rd man up to compete against Caz, Charlie or, hopefully, McKay. This reduces the opposition's ability to create the 3rd man further up the field when it can be harder to defend. Being able to employ the long bomb means NOT having to muck around with the ball waiting to find the free player whilst the Richmond players start tackling in swarms. Caz and Charlie are among the best one out contested marks in the game. The long bomb has a place as a tactic, not as but within a strategy. (MM used the long bomb down the line as a strategy. This was hopeless because the opposition were waiting for the long bomb, in numbers, and were then ready to kill us on the counter-attack).

Not all long bombs are created equal. Merely kicking it long high 65m into the forward line on top of the forward's head and his opponent and usually other defenders does not give us much of an advantage. For example I love the way charlie can sling his 60m kicks into the forward line at speed, with great profile and to the advantage of our players. He has only done it a few times, but it should be a model for all our players with their forward entries. This no doubt takes anticipation and understanding amongst the players- knowing which way a player is going to lead at the moment of the kick being executed. But it is such a powerful weapon in modern footy that it should be drilled tirelessly.

 

[passmark]

Tigers did have multiple years where they were finishing around the 5th mark though. They were shocking in finals, however it's not like they came from nowhere.

It's more reminiscent of Geelong 2007 then a fluke.

It might be my anti Rich bias but didn't give them a chance from round one . When they made top 4 at end of season thats when I changed.

I don't believe in flukes either.

 

[LordLucifer]

I feel like the depth of the midfield will really help us out, we lose one but should gain four in Kennedy, Lang and picks 3 and 10. That's assuming 3 and 10 are ready to go round 1.

I'd be disappointed if one of them isn't capable of playing Rd 1 next year.

 

[F_therest]

Probably a slight step backwards next year but then we will rise quite quickly in 2019.

It's one of those things no one can predict with any confidence...and there is always the chance of injuries ruining our season, or that of any other club.

IF we have a good injury run and our kids keep improving at the rate they have been, i'd expect 8-10 wins and a pretty good season finishing around 10th.

But again, if we get injuries to midfielders especially Murphy or Cripps we'll probably once again struggle. We have more midfield depth going into next year but most are very young.

 

[F_therest]

I'd be disappointed if one of them isn't capable of playing Rd 1 next year.

These days the top pick midfielders are almost always 'ready to go from round 1'.

Particularly pick 3 should be in our round 1 side whoever it is.

 

[Windhover]

Not all long bombs are created equal. Merely kicking it long high 65m into the forward line on top of the forward's head and his opponent and usually other defenders does not give us much of an advantage. For example I love the way charlie can sling his 60m kicks into the forward line at speed, with great profile and to the advantage of our players. He has only done it a few times, but it should be a model for all our players with their forward entries. This no doubt takes anticipation and understanding amongst the players- knowing which way a player is going to lead at the moment of the kick being executed. But it is such a powerful weapon in modern footy that it should be drilled tirelessly.

Agree except for the idea other players are ever going to have the ability to kick long like Charlie can. When he gets on to them and sees the player they are like exocet missiles the way they travel so far and so accurately. Maybe Weitering could do it and I love Williamon's kicking. Not sure there is anyone else with the talent set so training say Kerridge to kick like that would be as useful as training him to be a high jumper.

 

[therubbernub]

Agree except for the idea other players are ever going to have the ability to kick long like Charlie can. When he gets on to them and sees the player they are like exocet missiles the way they travel so far and so accurately. Maybe Weitering could do it and I love Williamon's kicking. Not sure there is anyone else with the talent set so training say Kerridge to kick like that would be as useful as training him to be a high jumper.

Its interesting, when i was writing , I was working out who else is a natural at it and I realised that they are indeed few and far between. I instantly thought of Williamson (so its interesting that you mentioned him too) Gibbs was another- now he's gone. Murphy can on occasions- not as long or the same projectile, but he certainly knows how to weight a kick to advantage given he has time and space to execute.

 

[Zlatan]

It's one of those things no one can predict with any confidence...and there is always the chance of injuries ruining our season, or that of any other club.

IF we have a good injury run and our kids keep improving at the rate they have been, i'd expect 8-10 wins and a pretty good season finishing around 10th.

But again, if we get injuries to midfielders especially Murphy or Cripps we'll probably once again struggle. We have more midfield depth going into next year but most are very young.

If we’re also going to adopt a more attacking game plan, it will take some time to iron out kinks and get the players used to it. There’s no way we’re going to win anything until we start hitting the scoreboard more frequently.

So much depends on how the kids are developing which is both exciting and scary at the same time.

 

[JustaBattler]

There is much of your post I agree with JAB so I have left it out. It is our differences that make a discussion interesting. So,

good man

you think about it we actually haven't made that serious an investment into faster more skillful players. In 3 trade periods and 2 drafts we have "spent" pick 6 (SPS) and pick 27 (Fisher) last year and pick 12 (Charlie) and pick 23 in 2016 (Cuningham) out of all our 1st and 2nd round picks. Pickett, Polson, LeBois cost us peanuts. And you have to remember bringing in those faster players only covers the loss of skillful, faster players like Tuohy, Armfield, Yarran, Sumner, Gallucci, Judd and Walker. IMO with pick 3 and 10 we will want to increase our quotient of skillful faster players. That will be a serious investment.

1. #6,12,( you forget NarryMc ) @ what was it#8? , 23 and 27 etc....I'd call that significant; but anyway I also factor in...
2. time spent actually researching, interviewing, developing, paying etc...in my equation - dont forget McCreadie and Williamson picks were a result of good research
3. I do believe that Bolton and SOS actually believe that all players start equal once recruited so the Kerr/ LeBois/Polson types get the same access to resources/staff/time - Jones redemption was no accident - there was a conscious effort to help him as much as possible...

so I guess my definition of "significant" is factoring in many things leading up to and after drafting /trading ...not just the picks used..

, the loss of Gibbs will be felt whenever we need a really accomplished player to do a job. He was a fantastic utility.

Secondly, I do not agree he is a more skillful ball user than Murphy. I would have it the other way round. You are entitled to your opinion but, to the extent that statistics are facts (they aren't quite the same thing) and to the extent that facts matter (the comparison is largely subjective but some objectivity must be permitted) I would proffer the following to support my claim:

Stats for 2017
1. Murphy - 22 games, 29.8 possies, 16.4 kicks, 396.5 m gained, 73% disposal efficiency, 4.4 ave inside 50s 11 goals 9 behinds.
2. Gibbs - 22 games, 26.8 possies, 16.5 kicks, 381.2 m gained, 70% disposal efficiency, 3.6 ave inside 50s, 17 goals, 13 behinds.

It likely follows that Murphy's kicks are longer, more accurate and more of them are inside 50swhere the risk reward equation makes inaccuracy less of a problem. Objectively these stats support my subjective impression (but don't prove) Murphy is a better ball user than Gibbs. That Gibbs has more goals and a better ratio of goals to behinds is simply a reflection of the fact that Gibbs played forward more (and could therefore get closer to goal).

Gibbs managed his stats whilst playing an inside role - especially once Cripps and Ed went down with injury...this is not to suggest that Murphy is a hack he is a fantastic player for Carlton - the only thing Murphy is D grade on is tackling - a deficiency that has never sat well with me....still I hope Murphy can continue to play an A grade level for carlton - and hope to see him play much more on teh wing/HFF where his creative skills will no doubt be wanted

. I also note Lang and Kennedy both seem to like tackling which I think is a very significant attraction.

Just a note- SOS went to great lengths in a post trade interview - to underline the fact that Kennedy himself is only 20 and still in need of developmentI hope people dont expect him to play at Cripp's level immediately...

long bomb has a place as a tactic within the forward line strategy. Defenders who would like to sneak up the ground have to linger back. Spare backmen have to be ready to run and be 3rd man up to compete against Caz, Charlie or, hopefully, McKay. This reduces the opposition's ability to create the 3rd man further up the field when it can be harder to defend. Being able to employ the long bomb means NOT having to muck around with the ball waiting to find the free player whilst the Richmond players start tackling in swarms. Caz and Charlie are among the best one out contested marks in the game. The long bomb has a place as a tactic, not as but within a strategy. (MM used the long bomb down the line as a strategy. This was hopeless because the opposition were waiting for the long bomb, in numbers, and were then ready to kill us on the counter-attack).

I think a bomb only ever works when clearly signalled to the whole side and they have the opportunity to start the forward press and get into position to cover for the inevitable rebound...perhaps if we had some developed crumbers and Casboult actually learned to bring the ball to ground to advantage rather than disadvantage we might do better....

I'm sure we all prefer a more clinical approach to I50's - as practised by most teams - and used to best effect and advantage by better drilled sides.

 

[AlecDuncan]

I had us down for 10 wins if Gibbs stayed. I expect The Flying Scotsman and/or Kerr to significantly improve our forward line this year, but expect our midfield to drop back without Gibb's touch of class. Can't expect pick 3 to replace that straight up. Backline's sorted, and Byrne will be a bonus there.

7-8 wins for me, but heading in the right direction.

 

[Cowboyblues]

here goes the long optimist. Crippa was a bull by 21 so "hoping", bam bam will be too.
Also looking at 2018 vs 2017 all we have "LOST" is gibba.
During 2017 we were very competitive in most games. This was us even losing crippa and Ed for the better part of the second half of the season.
2018 sees these two come back fresh and fit'n'firing. Also sees us with 10-40 games of experience, size and endurance into our last 2 draft crops.
So assuming and hoping for natural growth and progression I can't see us going backwards at all.
There is decent cover for kreuz. There is pressure for spots with langs inclusion along with two shiny new top 10 midfield draftees.
Add to all that the more attacking style of play bolts tweaked into game in last few rounds (forget Sydney) and I see genuine forward steps again next year.
And finally Big H to start round 1 and put all the "we didn't get Schache" concerns to bed.

 

[Michael Jezz]

I

here goes the long optimist. Crippa was a bull by 21 so "hoping", bam bam will be too.
Also looking at 2018 vs 2017 all we have "LOST" is gibba.
During 2017 we were very competitive in most games. This was us even losing crippa and Ed for the better part of the second half of the season.
2018 sees these two come back fresh and fit'n'firing. Also sees us with 10-40 games of experience, size and endurance into our last 2 draft crops.
So assuming and hoping for natural growth and progression I can't see us going backwards at all.
There is decent cover for kreuz. There is pressure for spots with langs inclusion along with two shiny new top 10 midfield draftees.
Add to all that the more attacking style of play bolts tweaked into game in last few rounds (forget Sydney) and I see genuine forward steps again next year.
And finally Big H to start round 1 and put all the "we didn't get Schache" concerns to bed.

We still need to win 10 games. We should achieve that as long as Cripps doesnt get injured. Cunningham and SPS to cover Gibbs outside game. It is 7 wins if Cripps gets another long term injury

 

[GapInIkonPark]

I think the big difference in 2018 is that we will run with the ball more than we did in 2017. We will have more sustained running power with another pre-season into our now second and third year players.

With the run, our pace will trouble teams. I mean: Williamson, Cuningham, the Curnows, Murphy, Lang, SPS, Fisher and Pickett.

When looking at the Best 22, it’s the players who are stiff to miss out and our Picks #3, #10 and #30 that says we have depth and competition for spots.

Best 22 in my opinion:

FB. Marchbank. Jones. Docherty

HB. Williamson. Weitering. Plowman.

C. Charlie. Ed. SPS.

HF. Jack. Casboult. Pickett.

FF. Kennedy. Harry. Wright.

R. Kreuzer. Cripps. Murphy.

I. Fisher, Lang, Cuningham, Simpson.

Stiff to miss out: Macreadie, Byrne and Lamb.

Kerr, Polson, and Picks #3, #10, #30 and #73 will earn their spots in the Senior 22 on the back of VFL form.

Boekhorst, Kerridge, Graham, White, Rowe and Thomas would only play if we have a bad run of injuries.

Phillips and Lobbe only play if Kreuzer is injured.

In that Best 22 are all 5 draftees from the 2015 Draft (first played 2016), 3 from the 2016 Draft (first played last year) and young recruits in Marchbank, Pickett, Plowman, Kennedy and Lang, as well as Cripps and Docherty (7), so 15 players who are 24 or under.

I think a solid 13th-15th finish, so not backwards at all.

 

[Metalcrusher]

I


We still need to win 10 games. We should achieve that as long as Cripps doesnt get injured. Cunningham and SPS to cover Gibbs outside game. It is 7 wins if Cripps gets another long term injury

The over reliance on Cripps to carry the midfield is a massive concern. This was magnified by a much maligned player in Curnow going down at the same time. 2 x clearance beasts gone.

The same cannot be said if Smurph/Gibbs/Insert slightly more outside players here goes down.

We need more inside beasts to spread the load. In Cripp's short career he has be dealt some significant injury blows. Is this because the other clubs know to pole axe him at every opportunity? This, if allowed to continue through lack of depth will certainly impact his longetivity in the AFL.

We need to support him so his prime is maintained as long as possible.

 

[Bluechip66]

I was thinking premiers....but no Gibbs.....probs then a prelim (at worst)

 

[bluebrew]

I think 7 ,8 th is possible, this year Sps Crippa and Pickett had interrupted Non existent pre seasons, Coupled with Organic Growth from this and the past 2 years will see us rise. Unless we have already seen the ceiling of our recruits.

 

[footyfan1978]

I had about 10 wins my expectation before trading Gibbs. I have to now reel in those expectations a bit but nothing changes long term of expecting us to be a serious team from 2019 onwards.

However Gibbs going does give exciting opportunity for likes of Lang, Kennedy, SPS, Fisher, Polson and even Pickett that some have quickly pigeon holed in their mind as a pure small forward but there is still some chance he can develop into a mid if he builds a tank for it. Even Graham whom does not get a lot of love in our fan base may find this exciting to feel like there is a spot in the real engine room there if someone has a massive massive pre-season and goes past the other young candidates. Even guys like Ciaran Byrne and Tom Williamson may see this as an opportunity to go from defence to somewhere else more on ball.
Exciting opportunity now for many of our youth if they fancy themselves as midfielders for the future.
I suspect we will see one or two surprises many did not see coming.

Going to be an exciting time as 2018 becomes the season the youth on our list start to take over the style of game we can play from midfield to forward line. I think the style of game we start to play in attacking sense will be more interesting than number of wins we get in 2018.