Opinion Do You Think We Will Take A Step Backwards?

[blue healer]

If we’re also going to adopt a more attacking game plan, it will take some time to iron out kinks and get the players used to it. There’s no way we’re going to win anything until we start hitting the scoreboard more frequently.

So much depends on how the kids are developing which is both exciting and scary at the same time.

Full preseason of working on this is the key, I think we started in the last few games and didn't look like we were miles away.

 

[blue healer]

I struggle to see both Kerridge & Curnow in the same side and Curnow is easily better

I don't think Curnow is easily better. Once Kerridge got a reasonable crack at it I reckon he got better as the season drew to an end. Might just have needed to get some confidence in himself and the gameplan. Don't think there's a lot between and I can see them playing in the same team if matchups suit.

 

[Aphrodite]

No we won't take a step backwards

 

[GapInIkonPark]

I don't think Curnow is easily better. Once Kerridge got a reasonable crack at it I reckon he got better as the season drew to an end. Might just have needed to get some confidence in himself and the gameplan. Don't think there's a lot between and I can see them playing in the same team if matchups suit.

Disagree.
Ed Curnow was and remains in our first 4 midfielders and is our primary tagger.
Kerridge will be lucky to get senior games in Season 2018.

Who was injured at the end of the season? Cripps, Ed, Marchbank, Cuningham, McKay, Jack (last match, carried shoulder for a lot of the year) and Williamson.

Who got games when they were injured? Kerridge, Boekhorst, Sheehan, Buckley, Sumner, Pickett. Pickett looked really good, rest were poor / nothing special, and we have started delisting them.

 

[blue healer]

Disagree.
Ed Curnow was and remains in our first 4 midfielders and is our primary tagger.
Kerridge will be lucky to get senior games in Season 2018.

Who was injured at the end of the season? Cripps, Ed, Marchbank, Cuningham, McKay, Jack (last match, carried shoulder for a lot of the year) and Williamson.

Who got games when they were injured? Kerridge, Boekhorst, Sheehan, Buckley, Sumner, Pickett. Pickett looked really good, rest were poor / nothing special, and we have started delisting them.

Well, as they say, opinions are a bit like clackers and mine is different to yours.

 

[thylacine60]

gee, blaine boekhorst's career must be dangling by a thread 2 games thick............

 

[AB_Blue]

I think best case scenario we can win the flag....worst case we finish last.....

Pretty sure

 

[footyfan1978]

Blaine is a very very lucky boy.

 

[reg_lower91]

I think we'll finish slightly higher (max 13th) but could be as low as the same spot this year. We've had a very defensive gameplan so far under Bolts and so, at some point, we eventually have to introduce a more attacking element to the game plan. I think 2018 will be the year in which this happens. However, being such a young side, I think this will eventuate in us conceeding more goals against the better sides. I expect to see us move the ball forward through the corridor a lot more starting as of this year.

I think we can realistically see our progress eventuating like so:
2018 - max 13th
2019 - 6th-8th (semi at best)
2020 - top 4 (prelim)
2021 - top 4 (GF/flag)

We might fast-track to a flag in 2020, but i think 2021 is most realistic when you consider the games experience for each player.

I think this is all heavily reliant on us doing some very aggresive recruiting for some more top-end talent during free agency period at the end of next year and 2019.

 

[BlueRenaissance]

Feel we will improve.

I respect the output of Murphy, Krueze and Gibbs; but if I'm honest I think all three have been conditional footballers to some degree and have lacked strong leadership. Murph/Krueze more a victim of circumstance than conditional effort.

None of them have been line in the sand players just playing within acceptable AFL standards.

So many reports this off season on how we have a heavy reliance on Murphy, Gibbs and Kruezer but I just don't see it as so important. Maybe Kreuze aside based on 2017. But his best year was still second best with 3 other rucks ravaged by injury. He probably sits at his best 4/5/6 in the league for impact.

Gibbs has always chosen when to play hard and when not too. Murphy is now outside and vulnerable to injuries impacting his performance.

Already when it comes to game crunch time I look to Cripps and Docherty as our onfield leaders...Kruezer as well if I'm honest.

In 2018, I'm looking to Weitering, Marchbank & even Wright to stand up as on field leaders. I'm hoping Curnow, Cunners, and Kennedy quickly join them but can wait.

In my mind, it's not Murphy and Gibbs holding the team together, it's more Bolton's gameplan and his pieces thrown in to play their role. I honestly think Murphy is an easy replacement come retirement. Gibbs is a bigger loss but I like Kennedy's importance over Gibbs anyway. Not rating them side by side but rating Carlton's real need for inside support. Carlton midfield minus Cripps is easily bullied with Murph/Gibbs/Thomas/Curnow etc. Sooner that era ends the better for mine.

We will play Bolton's system and across 22 players on field there will be more maturity not offset by the loss of Gibbs.

By seasons end, Thomas, Simpson, Murphy, Kerridge, E Curnow will be obsolete. Murphy forced down the pecking order by better upcoming players.

 

[Lawrence Angwin]

It's all relative.
Backwards in ladder position? No.....North & GC are going backwards at a rate of knots therefore I can't see us finishing lower than 16th.
Backwards in development? Also No.......with the loss of Gibbs and the inclusion of Kennedy & Lang I think we will be slightly worse off in the short term but the development of our 1st, 2nd & 3rd year players will undoubtedly step up again next year. Also with the loss of Gibbs, there is a huge opportunity for one of our young midfielders and much like Cripps did a couple of years ago when Judd went down, we will hopefully see a similar rapid improvement in someone like SPS.


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[Captain crippa]

Agree except Ed.

Feel we will improve.

I respect the output of Murphy, Krueze and Gibbs; but if I'm honest I think all three have been conditional footballers to some degree and have lacked strong leadership. Murph/Krueze more a victim of circumstance than conditional effort.

None of them have been line in the sand players just playing within acceptable AFL standards.

So many reports this off season on how we have a heavy reliance on Murphy, Gibbs and Kruezer but I just don't see it as so important. Maybe Kreuze aside based on 2017. But his best year was still second best with 3 other rucks ravaged by injury. He probably sits at his best 4/5/6 in the league for impact.

Gibbs has always chosen when to play hard and when not too. Murphy is now outside and vulnerable to injuries impacting his performance.

Already when it comes to game crunch time I look to Cripps and Docherty as our onfield leaders...Kruezer as well if I'm honest.

In 2018, I'm looking to Weitering, Marchbank & even Wright to stand up as on field leaders. I'm hoping Curnow, Cunners, and Kennedy quickly join them but can wait.

In my mind, it's not Murphy and Gibbs holding the team together, it's more Bolton's gameplan and his pieces thrown in to play their role. I honestly think Murphy is an easy replacement come retirement. Gibbs is a bigger loss but I like Kennedy's importance over Gibbs anyway. Not rating them side by side but rating Carlton's real need for inside support. Carlton midfield minus Cripps is easily bullied with Murph/Gibbs/Thomas/Curnow etc. Sooner that era ends the better for mine.

We will play Bolton's system and across 22 players on field there will be more maturity not offset by the loss of Gibbs.

By seasons end, Thomas, Simpson, Murphy, Kerridge, E Curnow will be obsolete. Murphy forced down the pecking order by better upcoming players.

except

 

[CJMB]

It's all relative.
Backwards in ladder position? No.....North & GC are going backwards at a rate of knots therefore I can't see us finishing lower than 16th.
Backwards in development? Also No.......with the loss of Gibbs and the inclusion of Kennedy & Lang I think we will be slightly worse off in the short term but the development of our 1st, 2nd & 3rd year players will undoubtedly step up again next year. Also with the loss of Gibbs, there is a huge opportunity for one of our young midfielders and much like Cripps did a couple of years ago when Judd went down, we will hopefully see a similar rapid improvement in someone like SPS.


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Hopefully the boys, particularly the major players, get an uninterrupted preseason and we have a good run with injuries across the year. Cripps, Samo and Pickett had a shocking preseason (most of the season for Pickett) and injuries to Cripps, Ed, Cuningham, Marchbank, Plowman, etc during the year really hurt us. If we get a good run and keep the injury list short I can see us doing some good things this year (while keeping a lid on it in these early stages of our development, of course).

I keep going back to the round 23 team and comparing that to our possible round 1 lineup and what could be come the end of next season.

Rd 23 2017 (Rd 1 2018)
Simpson | Jones | Docherty
Armfield | Weitering | Byrne
Fisher | Petrevski-Seton | Boekhorst
Wright | C Curnow | Thomas
Lamb | Casboult | Pickett
Kreuzer | Gibbs | Murphy
Williamson | Kerridge | Graham | Smedts

Possible rd 1:
Simpson | Jones | Docherty
Marchbank | Weitering | Plowman
Petrevski-Seton | Cripps | Pickett
C Curnow | McKay | Lang
J Silvagni | Casboult | Wright
Kreuzer | Kennedy | Murphy
Williamson | E Curnow | Cuningham | Fisher
Emg: Byrne, Boekhorst, 3, 10, etc.

I've effectively got Armfield>Plowman, Byrne (give him time, no rush, needs to get his body right)>Marchbank, Boekhorst>Lang, Thomas>McKay, Lamb>J Silvagni, Gibbs>Kennedy, Kerridge>E Curnow, Graham>Cuningham and Smedts>Fisher. Gibbs>Kennedy is the only one where we 'lose ground' but what we'll get out of Kennedy over his career is going to be greater than what we'd have got from the remainder of Gibbs (call it 4 years versus 10).

I'm ignoring any discussion about if we can run Charlie, Harry, Levi and Jack in the same forward line, you could have Byrne, Boek, 3, 10, Lamb, etc in place of one of the talls and the point still stands...

 

[Malifice]

Improvement of the kids will partly cover Gibbs loss. We'll be around the same as last year. 8 wins+ is a pass.

My best 22 for next year:

Defenders:

B: Lachie Plowman, Liam Jones, Caleb Marchbank
HB: Kade Simpson, Jacob Weitering, Ciaran Byrne

4 talls (most of whom are versatile and rebounding) and 2 smalls is the way to go. We have enough coverage to push Docherty up to the wing, which makes us much more attacking.

All these players are good at intercept marking and mobile, with an attacking mindset. The talls can play small, and the smalls can play tall. Jones (ASOS if Jones goes down) can deal with the 'monster' bigger KPF.

Middle:

C: Sam Docherty, Patrick Cripps, Tom Williamson

Cripps picks himself.

Both Williamson and Docherty play tall, can take a mark, have excellent delivery inside F50 and take the game on with run and carry and mongrel. I back both in a one on one contest.

We really need to be transitioning to a more offensive game style this year, and this is one way to do it, placing those two on a wing, and urging them to back themselves with run, dash and taking the game on. Both are capable of hitting a forward on the lead.

Forwards:

HF: Sam Petrevski-Seton, Charlie Curnow, Jack Silvagni
F: Jarrod Pickett, Levi Casboult, Matthew Wright

Plonk Levi in the goal square where he will cause headaches with his pack marking, and scare the shit out of defenders plugging holes with him leading up at them. It also mitigates his one major liability (kicking accuracy) by bringing him closer to goal. Pickett and Wright (who can both take a mark) front and centre crumbing Levi.

Curnow and JSOS provide quality marking power across the HFF. Curnow and SPS can push up the ground and cause problems. Again; give them a lisence to take the game on.

Pickett, SPS, JSOS, Wright, Curnow all provide good forward pressure helping us retain the ball inside 50.

Followers:

R: Matthew Kreuzer, Matthew Kennedy, Marc Murphy

First two pick themselves. Nuff said.

Kennedy needs to be given as much time in the guts (and games) as we can next year while Murphy is still around. Lets give him responsibilty and see how he goes.

Bench:

I/C: David Cuningham [Blaine Boekhorst?], Dale Thomas [Pick 3?], Darcy Lang [Zac Fisher?], Ed Curnow

Interchange is a tough one. Ed Curnow is the only one who picks himself, and likely starts on the ground in a tagging role, replacing one of the small forwards (Pickett most likely). The remaining three players are there for midfield rotations, and arguments can be made for all three. Defensive pressure is a KPI.

Competition for spots and preseason form sorts out who makes the bench.

Noteable is lack of a tall utility on the bench (3 mids/ 1 tall). Reasoning being Docherty or Williamson can go back to cover in defence if a defender goes down, and his spot on the wing can be covered by one of the midfield rotations. If we need more height up forward, Weitering can push up there in a pinch, with Docherty or Williamson again plugging the gap down back.

For depth we have Matt Lobbe as ruck back-up, Alex Silvagni to step in for a defender, and McKay developing as KPF if Levi goes down (or stinks it up). Graham, Kerridge, Smedts and Polson are back up mids. White provides back up tall utility.

Reckon that side is capable of causing a few problems. Im predicing a bottom a finish or around 12th with 8 wins (+/-), but we could surprise and push closer to the 8 than we think.

 

[Broadside]

Improvement of the kids will partly cover Gibbs loss. We'll be around the same as last year. 8 wins+ is a pass.

My best 22 for next year:

Defenders:


4 talls (most of whom are versatile and rebounding) and 2 smalls is the way to go. We have enough coverage to push Docherty up to the wing, which makes us much more attacking.

All these players are good at intercept marking and mobile, with an attacking mindset. The talls can play small, and the smalls can play tall. Jones (ASOS if Jones goes down) can deal with the 'monster' bigger KPF.

Middle:


Cripps picks himself.

Both Williamson and Docherty play tall, can take a mark, have excellent delivery inside F50 and take the game on with run and carry and mongrel. I back both in a one on one contest.

We really need to be transitioning to a more offensive game style this year, and this is one way to do it, placing those two on a wing, and urging them to back themselves with run, dash and taking the game on. Both are capable of hitting a forward on the lead.

Forwards:


Plonk Levi in the goal square where he will cause headaches with his pack marking, and scare the shit out of defenders plugging holes with him leading up at them. It also mitigates his one major liability (kicking accuracy) by bringing him closer to goal. Pickett and Wright (who can both take a mark) front and centre crumbing Levi.

Curnow and JSOS provide quality marking power across the HFF. Curnow and SPS can push up the ground and cause problems. Again; give them a lisence to take the game on.

Pickett, SPS, JSOS, Wright, Curnow all provide good forward pressure helping us retain the ball inside 50.

Followers:


First two pick themselves. Nuff said.

Kennedy needs to be given as much time in the guts (and games) as we can next year while Murphy is still around. Lets give him responsibilty and see how he goes.

Bench:


Interchange is a tough one. Ed Curnow is the only one who picks himself, and likely starts on the ground in a tagging role, replacing one of the small forwards (Pickett most likely). The remaining three players are there for midfield rotations, and arguments can be made for all three. Defensive pressure is a KPI.

Competition for spots and preseason form sorts out who makes the bench.

Noteable is lack of a tall utility on the bench (3 mids/ 1 tall). Reasoning being Docherty or Williamson can go back to cover in defence if a defender goes down, and his spot on the wing can be covered by one of the midfield rotations. If we need more height up forward, Weitering can push up there in a pinch, with Docherty or Williamson again plugging the gap down back.

For depth we have Matt Lobbe as ruck back-up, Alex Silvagni to step in for a defender, and McKay developing as KPF if Levi goes down (or stinks it up). Graham, Kerridge, Smedts and Polson are back up mids. White provides back up tall utility.

Reckon that side is capable of causing a few problems. Im predicing a bottom a finish or around 12th with 8 wins (+/-), but we could surprise and push closer to the 8 than we think.

what of Macreadie, do we have too many tall defenders? he is too good a player to be on the fringes for a couple of years, we'd end up losing him.

 

[Malifice]

what of Macreadie, do we have too many tall defenders? he is too good a player to be on the fringes for a couple of years, we'd end up losing him.

Next year we likely lose a combination of most of: Rowe, Simpson, ASOS, White. That opens up a lot of wriggle room for him in the backline.

Additionally, if Jones continues where he left off from 2017 and has a blinder of a year, Jones becomes our next potential candidate for a trade out to improve our draft position in the final year of list resetting.

Plenty of sides would pay a pretty price for a gun AA/ borderline AA Key defender. He turns 27 in Feb of next year. You could reasonably get a late 1st rounder/ early 2nd rounder (12-22) for him if he shows similar form to last year.

I reckon we should lock Macreadie up on a 2 year deal just to lock him away for a while. Devlop him in the twos.

The biggest risk is another side looking for a key defender (there are plenty) gets in Harrisons ear, and he leaves for cheap.

 

[footyfan1978]

what of Macreadie, do we have too many tall defenders? he is too good a player to be on the fringes for a couple of years, we'd end up losing him.

That is type of problem you want to cultivate as a list manager. A group of youngsters develop so well you can chop and chose the best of them 3 to 5 years down the track and trade areas you surplus in for areas you a bit weaker in. This might actually mean it is an older player around 27 to 28 you end up trading for a decent draft pick to re-generate your list perpetually. Ideally for us it would be Liam Jones traded in a year or two to a premiership contender topping up for depth and keep Macreadie as long as he is developing as we would hope. If he is trailing behind Weitering, Marchbank, Plowman, Byrne and Williamson but still worthy of being at AFL level with some trade value maybe he is traded for faster smaller defender as an example. Rather that problem than the years of the McCarthy's, Giles, McInnes, Watson and Bowers where no one develops enough to be any value to trade and just de-listed and you start all over again from scratch.

 

[BIGGUS 64]

No we won't take a step backwards

I love the sentiment!

Just a pity that the photo used to make the meme has Buckley and Everitt in it.

Needed one with Cripps, SPS and Harry in it!

 

[HARKER]

I reckon we should lock Macreadie up on a 2 year deal just to lock him away for a while. Devlop him in the twos.

The biggest risk is another side looking for a key defender (there are plenty) gets in Harrisons ear, and he leaves for cheap.

We have already and until 2020.
Club rates him high and for good reason.

Unfortunately though, I can see Macreadie play mostly VFL next year, if we are to sit on Weitering playing back for the bulk of the year.
Good players have to be given opportunity before they become ordinary players. That's the trick for Bolton and our MC

 

[Thrawn]

We have already and until 2020.
Club rates him high and for good reason.

Unfortunately though, I can see Macreadie play mostly VFL next year, if we are to sit on Weitering playing back for the bulk of the year.
Good players have to be given opportunity before they become ordinary players. That's the trick for Bolton and our MC

So are you telling us he's not Macreadie?

 

[HARKER]

So are you telling us he's not Macreadie?

Mac Ready?

Harrison is the tallest of our young guys and may be built up to be the strongest also, so yes, he may take a little more time.
I was impressed with him last year and if he was taken higher, he may have even been preferred to Weitering at times through the year.

 

[footyfan1978]

Do not think we can get ahead of ourselves with Macreadie. He still has some work to do to be a long term player. He looks a spare parts player at the moment. I don't mind him but want to see more from him to excite me. He was a bit touched up in a bit of a VFL game I saw on tv by Larkey of North.
Meaning, he has not made it yet. Last year gave him a good taste of things. Hopefully in off season he working super hard to develop as quickly as the other batch of youngsters.

 

[Robert Heatley]

One of our measures of success is who can’t get a game next year. If Graham, White, Smedts, Thomas, Kerridge can’t get a game next year, it means significant improvement from our youngsters and means we’ll we have gone forward regardless of what the win/loss column says.


I left Boekhorst out of that group as I think he has the raw materials to be a pretty decent player. I just hope the coaches can extract that from him as they did Jones this year. I think The season finished at a bad time for Boekhorst.

 

[gbatman]

B: Plowman Jones Marchbank
HB: Simpson Weitering Williamson
C: Byrne Cripps Docherty
HF: Murphy Casboult Silvagni
F: Fisher Curnow Wright
OB: Kreuzer Kennedy Curnow
IC: Thomas Petrevski-Seton #3 Cuningham
EM: McKay Silvagni Pickett

We're probably looking like that for our best side which is decent. Getting a few quality rotations in there. Backline looks solid. Murphy, Thomas, Simpson probably the real older players.

Taller forward lines have died out so McKay will have to displace someone like Casboult, being a big forward a lot of the times is about giving your team an out to get the rebound going quickly to move the ball quickly and that means doing the team thing and not ball chasing but giving a long option, something Jack Riewoldt did well in the finals and Kreuzer and Casboult do pretty well.

We've got a few more inexperienced outside players yet to really make it but with great potential this season with Williamson, Byrne and Pickett. Our Backline is a little on the tall side but that is ok as long as they are pretty mobile and athletic and they are.

Backline depth is good with Silvagni, Boekhorst, Rowe, Macreadie and White all pretty capable. Forward line depth is better with a few mids who can play there and Pickett, McKay, Smedts and Lamb being honest players. Midfield depth could be tested by injuries. A few young players going in there and in the reserves there's just Kerridge and Graham at this stage. Polson may have an impact but unexpected. Our early draft picks are likely to be quality young midfielders but you can't expect too much from midfielders in their first season or two.

Gibbs was our main mover in the middle last year and one of our best players, he also kicked goals so he will be a big loss. A few young guys stepping up and some quality young inclusions through Kennedy and the draft may offset this but it's hard to say whether it will fall short of covering the loss of gibbs, exceed it or balance it out.

Injuries will be the telling factor. Hopefully extra rotations and depth limit injuries. We could challenge a lot of sides without injuries but our depth could be tested with a bad run.

Tactically I think playing Murphy forward more is a good idea as he's getting older and needs preserving plus his tackling has dropped off. Powerful, not super tall but very mobile players are back in vogue as fullforwards and Charlie Curnow is the perfect modern tall forward. If Cripps can step up his marking then rotating Cripps and Curnow forward looks a good move. Simpson, Byrne, Williamson, Docherty, Thomas and others to rotate through the backline/wings. Wright, Murphy, Fisher and maybe even Silvagni to rotate out of the forward line.

No doubt the list is improving and another haul of guns from this draft will go leaps and bounds towards us achieving something.

 

[djw1952]

It's all relative.
Backwards in ladder position? No.....North & GC are going backwards at a rate of knots therefore I can't see us finishing lower than 16th.
Backwards in development? Also No.......with the loss of Gibbs and the inclusion of Kennedy & Lang I think we will be slightly worse off in the short term but the development of our 1st, 2nd & 3rd year players will undoubtedly step up again next year. Also with the loss of Gibbs, there is a huge opportunity for one of our young midfielders and much like Cripps did a couple of years ago when Judd went down, we will hopefully see a similar rapid improvement in someone like SPS.


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I agree that we should end above Norf and G.C. (who will be trying to lose to win the Rankin cup) and that is probably it !!! We should fight it out with Bris for next spot......depends on injuries I guess. Pick 3 next year would be a very good get in a very good draft I imagine!!!