- Nov 22, 2015
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Williamson and Lang in the 22 ahead of Thomas and Byrne. Not sold on Rayner either.
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Opinion Do You Think We Will Take A Step Backwards?
- Thread starter Deep Blue
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thylacine60
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I asked......
Add them onto the older 'established' players of: Murphy, Simmo, Kreuzer, Jones, Docherty, Rowe, Plowman, E Curnow, A Silvagni and Wright you have 24 players you can rely on to have good performances most weeks. Sadly some of these guys' positions overlap and with injuries we have to go into a shallow depth pool. Like you said, Polson Kerr and LeBois would be great additions (add Lang to that list) while Casboult/Lamb/Kerridge would preferably make way.
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It was always going to happen after for one reason or another we butchered so many drafts in a row (Bootsma, Lucas, Watson, Menzel, Yarran, Jacksch, Mclean all gone and all 1st costing first rounders) only really nailing Cripps in the period 2008-2014.
Our 2nd, 3rd and later selections over that same period didnt fare any better.
Over that same period of time, we leaked talent elsewhere with Betts, Garlett, Waite, Judd, Jamison etc all retiring or moving on.
We had a list with good top end talent (Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Kruezer, Betts etc) but a very shaky depth in the middle and a poor 'bottom six'. This problem was aggravated by the above - zero talent coming in, and talent leaking out the other side.
A reset and aggressive trade and drafting policy focusing on youth was the only way to go.
The reset has been going for 2 1/2 trade periods now, and in that time we've really strengthened our young talent in the 23 and younger bracket, primarily with quality depth (which has been the focus). Over the next 1 1/2 trade/draft periods, we'll have quality depth clustered around the 18-24 age bracket all over the ground, plus a handful of matchwinners.
We had to take a step backwards to take several steps forwards.
Moody Blue
Premiership Player
After Jones transformation, it just highlights that a good VFL coach and dedicated assistant coaches can help a player develop. Neil Balme made that observation that clubs are too quick to get rid of players who were selected in the first or second round.
I just hope Cripps has fully recovered from his injuries last season. In his short career he has been battered and now Gibbs leaving is now going to result in Opposition clubs targeting Cripps even more. We really need a few of his team mates to step up.
thylacine60
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enter
Tambourine
Team Captain
- Jul 2, 2016
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I agree with Thomas not in the best 22 but Bolton has some man love for him and he'll most likely start round 1.
It defies logic, but I have a strange feeling we'll actually improve next year.
I think we will improve, lots of young kids had good starts to their careers who will be more consistant and run games out better this year.
A key link up forward like a Mckay/Curnow or even both kicking 20-30 goals behind casboult and providing some releaving marks out of defense allows us to win more games.
A key link up forward like a Mckay/Curnow or even both kicking 20-30 goals behind casboult and providing some releaving marks out of defense allows us to win more games.
I think we'll improve by younger kids stepping up, but the Gibbs-shaped hole is a big one, and we'll feel it towards the end of the season and in close games.
Gethelred
Moderator
- May 1, 2016
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See, I think the opposite; we'll feel his absence especially early, as the midfield has to gel without him, but as they begin to know each other and the way they move and kick, the group will grow together and improve to be better by the end of the year.
For example, we were at our worst/lowest after Cripps and Ed went down, and we couldn't cover their loss; yet, after two weeks, we still lacked them around the ball but in terms of sheer numbers - tackles, clearances, contested possessions - we had them covered via Kerridge, SPS, Wright, Murph and Gibbs.
He'll be missed, absolutely, but it's his leadership on field that we'll miss more short term than his input, good as it can be very occasionally.
Captain crippa
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My name geoff
Premiership Player
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Look at it this way..
(Of the players who will in some way impact the senior team)
Players who will likely improve in 2018 and provide greater output than 2017:
SPS, Fisher, Williamson, McKay, J.Silvagni, Charlie, Weitering, Pickett, Kennedy, Lang, Marchbank, Cripps, Cuningham, Byrne, Macreadie.
Players who will likely produce less in 2018 than in 2017:
Gibbs, Thomas, Simpson
It's a game of numbers.
(Of the players who will in some way impact the senior team)
Players who will likely improve in 2018 and provide greater output than 2017:
SPS, Fisher, Williamson, McKay, J.Silvagni, Charlie, Weitering, Pickett, Kennedy, Lang, Marchbank, Cripps, Cuningham, Byrne, Macreadie.
Players who will likely produce less in 2018 than in 2017:
Gibbs, Thomas, Simpson
It's a game of numbers.
Last edited:
- Mar 1, 2005
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same ,the year before when murph went down
So where do we line up for the grand final tickets ?
For sure. But how do you replace 200+ games of experience?
Jabba73
Hall of Famer
Nearly added that many to the rookies and newbies at the club. Also recruited Kennedy and Lang who have a couple of years under their belts.
We lost plenty of experience with the likes of Army etc also leaving the club and there is more pain to come when Simpson, White, Murphy, Thomas, Kreuzer etc leave over the next couple of years. The experience can only be regained with game time in the middle during games.
Spreading the experience over 15 kids is sometimes better than having it tied up in one player.
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Captain crippa
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I don’t know figures but I would of thought the average footballer doesn’t get any better after say 100 games for the norm
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You would expect in their third years to see JSOS, Cuningham McKay really grow and establish themselves as regular 22 level players (understand jack played a lot last year but was clearly hampered with a busted shoulder)
Charlie has already proved he can hang at this stage.
Our second half of the year will tell a lot, have faded horrifically twice now in the backend.
Charlie has already proved he can hang at this stage.
Our second half of the year will tell a lot, have faded horrifically twice now in the backend.
This. I'd rather we started slowly and gained momentum late than the tired plod to he finish line of the last 2 years. Hopefully the 2015 kids have enough miles under the belt now.
Can't remember if I've posted this here already, so why not again in a bored off-season. We ended with an unusually hard draw in 2017 (based on our ladder position) which affected our results. We won less games than the previous year, despite playing objectively better footy, simply because of a bit of bad luck.
Remember, the fixture is set so that bottom 6 teams play twice agsinst 3 teams from the bottom 6 (ish), 1 team from the middle 6, 1 team from top 6. That sets up more games between teams of equal ability. In 2017 we played:
- Twice against Richmond ('bottom 6', jumped to premiers), Essendon (bottom 6, jumped to finals), Sydney (top 6, retained their spot), Melbourne (middle 6) and Gold Coast (bottom 6). That's two teams who made big jumps; basically gave us two games harder than they should be.
- Only once against Brisbane, Freo, West Coast and Port; all away from home. Two bottom-6 interstate teams, and middle-6 teams who were deadly at home, but awful away.
- Only once against GWS and Adelaide, both in Melbourne. In this case, our only one-off home games were against top 4 opposition. We actually won against GWS - but you wouldn't expect home ground advantage to matter much.
As a way of assessing the fixture, assume that:
- teams in the same bracket of 6 - will be 50/50 on neutral grounds, and expect to win at home grounds
- teams 1 bracket above/below - the higher team will expect to win at neutral grounds or if the higher team is home. 50/50 if lower team is home
- teams 2 brackest above/below - the higher team will always expect to win.
On that basis, in 2017 we had 1 game where we started favourite (vs Gold Coast), and only 2 x 50/50 games = 2 expected wins; our 6 wins was 4 wins above expectations. In 2016 we have 1 favourite, and 6 50/50 games = 4 expected wins; our 7 wins was 3 above expectations
If the 'fixture leak' is accurate and we play: Adelaide, Bulldogs, Collingwood, Freo, GCS twice, and lets assume we play Brisbane and one of Freo/Port in Melbourne, then we should get: 3 x expected wins (GCS / Brisbane / Freo) and 4 50/50 games. That could end up being 5 expected wins. In that 'fairer' fixture, 8-9 wins would be the equivalent to our performance this year. That would look like improvement, without really being much.
That said, I'd expect Gibbs loss to hurt us. The third year crew (Weitering/Curnow/Kennedy/Cuningham) should start to make their mark but not be match-winners quite yet. The second year crew should start to really show what they can do, but have little impact on games. Losing Gibbs probably costs us 1-2 wins.
So I'd anticipate that if we play to our 2017 standard, we'll win around 6-7 games next year again. I can't see us going much past that, but also can't see us falling away much further (2016 form would have us on around 6 wins).
Remember, the fixture is set so that bottom 6 teams play twice agsinst 3 teams from the bottom 6 (ish), 1 team from the middle 6, 1 team from top 6. That sets up more games between teams of equal ability. In 2017 we played:
- Twice against Richmond ('bottom 6', jumped to premiers), Essendon (bottom 6, jumped to finals), Sydney (top 6, retained their spot), Melbourne (middle 6) and Gold Coast (bottom 6). That's two teams who made big jumps; basically gave us two games harder than they should be.
- Only once against Brisbane, Freo, West Coast and Port; all away from home. Two bottom-6 interstate teams, and middle-6 teams who were deadly at home, but awful away.
- Only once against GWS and Adelaide, both in Melbourne. In this case, our only one-off home games were against top 4 opposition. We actually won against GWS - but you wouldn't expect home ground advantage to matter much.
As a way of assessing the fixture, assume that:
- teams in the same bracket of 6 - will be 50/50 on neutral grounds, and expect to win at home grounds
- teams 1 bracket above/below - the higher team will expect to win at neutral grounds or if the higher team is home. 50/50 if lower team is home
- teams 2 brackest above/below - the higher team will always expect to win.
On that basis, in 2017 we had 1 game where we started favourite (vs Gold Coast), and only 2 x 50/50 games = 2 expected wins; our 6 wins was 4 wins above expectations. In 2016 we have 1 favourite, and 6 50/50 games = 4 expected wins; our 7 wins was 3 above expectations
If the 'fixture leak' is accurate and we play: Adelaide, Bulldogs, Collingwood, Freo, GCS twice, and lets assume we play Brisbane and one of Freo/Port in Melbourne, then we should get: 3 x expected wins (GCS / Brisbane / Freo) and 4 50/50 games. That could end up being 5 expected wins. In that 'fairer' fixture, 8-9 wins would be the equivalent to our performance this year. That would look like improvement, without really being much.
That said, I'd expect Gibbs loss to hurt us. The third year crew (Weitering/Curnow/Kennedy/Cuningham) should start to make their mark but not be match-winners quite yet. The second year crew should start to really show what they can do, but have little impact on games. Losing Gibbs probably costs us 1-2 wins.
So I'd anticipate that if we play to our 2017 standard, we'll win around 6-7 games next year again. I can't see us going much past that, but also can't see us falling away much further (2016 form would have us on around 6 wins).
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
Agree. Gibbs is the only loss (but a big one) Kennedy is a big positive and I expect real improvement in SPS Charlie Weitering Pickett McKay Cuningham Fisher Marchbank Williamson Byrne whilst a fit Cripps makes a big difference.
Injuries will be the key as our depth is still developing.
