Does anyone really win longterm?

[shotgun_blues]

Seriously, does anyone win these on these mini-lotteries long term?

I watched this system I designed for 100 bets before I backed it (last 700before that were highly profitable, showing +30% POT too).

The 100 bets had 31 winners and returned $131. So looked very good and I have proceeded to unleash at the start of the year, thinking at worst I'll break even.

Now I have bet the first 24 selections since the start of the year.... winners... 0, nada, none !!!!!!!

Reckon the chances of that happening is around 0.02%, and the average selection has been $5, so it's not like I have been backing longshots.

Unreal, I am disillusioned with racing and ready to give it away for good.
Anyone got any similiar stories to this? Coz I can't explain it!

 

[shankd it]

its always the ones u were going to back that win never the ones you actually jump on..

in the long term only the really intelligent and calculated punters have a shot at winning ..

 

[Oaksnaf]

POT aside what was the strike rate of the system

And at what frequency were the bets. 5 mid-week 15 on the weekend?

 

[krisholio14]

its always the ones u were going to back that win never the ones you actually jump on..

in the long term only the really intelligent and calculated punters have a shot at winning ..

That's the one I reckon. If you follow the racing, and you have a reasonable knowledge of the goings on on and off the track, you always do better when you back yourself as opposed to fudging.

I find doing it this way (and as long as you're not betting the house on everything), you may be treading water somewhere around break even point for extended periods, but at some point the big one will come through.

 

[Oaksnaf]

I find doing it this way (and as long as you're not betting the house on everything), you may be treading water somewhere around break even point for extended periods, but at some point the big one will come through.

Living in hope.

 

[Danger Mouse]

The whole point to any game i ever play if it being cards, horses, sport or an online shooter is to beat the game hands down or not play.

So the way i see it, unless your making enough money from horse racing that it has a meaningful inpact on your life then you're just donating and/or wasting time on an expensive hobby.

I think hardly anyone falls into that category regardless of there so called expert status.

Ps. Do not use systems, lol.... i have tried them on here nearly every single time i have fired out a selection on bigfooty. Some days they are gold, others they are worth coal. Systems do not work, period but they are okay if you're just messing around with no money involved!

Irony is one day i fired out who i actually liked opposed to who whatever crap system thought would win and i found like 9 from 12 winners. A system will never produce that, EVER.

 

[Oaksnaf]

I think you will find that there are a LOT of profitable system punters. This not only reduces the amount of time spent in making your selections, but also confines you to punt a particular way. And it is much easier to work with, rather than form analysis which can be taken any which way.

 

[Danger Mouse]

It's all about video replays oksnaf and knowing what to look for.... try it and see what happens mate, you never know you might start winning too "long term"!

 

[Oaksnaf]

It's all about video replays oksnaf and knowing what to look for.... try it and see what happens mate, you never know you might start winning too "long term"!

It's not all about anything really. Punting is like a successful business. There are many ways to go about it. You just have to be good at what you do.

What works for one punter won't necessarily work for the next.

We are all different.

I wish you the best of luck with the harness punting.

 

[krisholio14]

Living in hope.

Isn't that what puntings all about?

When I say big one, I don't mean one you can take a year off work from, but one that gets you reasonably in front during a 'season'. Only has to be a couple of hundred.

 

[shotgun_blues]

POT aside what was the strike rate of the system

And at what frequency were the bets. 5 mid-week 15 on the weekend?

Only do Saturday Metros Oaksnaf

BETS-WINS-PLACES-WR-SR-POT

(2005-08) 831-245-483-$1062-29%SR-28%POT

Those results are local tote only too. Then bet ..

2009 26-1-9-$3 (The last one on Saturday broke the duck)

This system is one of 6 I am using.

Problem is this though, my 6 systems this year have had 208 bets and returned $209 (30 winners) on local tote, not bad considering the system above is dragging it down at the moment and shopping for best price would have returned $230+.

But I reckon I have backed 60 of those for 1 winner. Including 15 bets yesterday of which I didn't get a cracker (didn't back the last one that won, already done for the day) . It is starting to really s*#t me (and cost me) and I am ready to walk REALLY believing I am a cursed punter. Last week I didn't bet and would have finished 25 units up. I should be getting my money back, not getting royally f**ken smashed. There is no explanation as to why it seems to keep happening.

 

[haywood jablome]

If you are in this game to make money punting, then I would suggest there are other ways to spend your time that would give you a better return. A small minority make it, and I don't want to be a pessimist but in the LONG term the odds diminish. Everyone has "hot streaks" where their system works, but do it for AT LEAST a year and see if it still works. If you had the discipline to only bet on horses that were "special" eg. once every few weeks, then you would probably do a lot better if you only interest was making a profit. Tipping the card totally diminishes your odds of a return in the long term. The less you tip the more you increase your odds. I personally do it for fun, I have the money to lose, I don't bet big, it's a hobby for me. IMO people forget that these are animals we are talking about, they aren't robots, they have bad days, they get blocked, they might not want to run, the number of things that can go wrong is extremely high.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Thats not entirely true haywood jablome.

The frequency of bets depends on what your actual bet type is.

If your look at those who lay for a living. There are many, many punters out there with up to 50+ lays on any given weekend.

There are also punters who win long term that have several selections per day.




shotgun_blues... your post sort of answers your own question. Your inconsistent. And your system results are based on betting every single bet.


You should also work out, the worst run in your system. The lowest point of the balance based on $1 investments, and the highest. That way you might be able to look at it more realistically rather than just seeing 28% POT.

For the strike-rate and the average dividend that you have, it's pretty impressive. So I wouldn't be so discouraged so quickly.


I also assume that if your system threw up 15 bets in one day, when the average seems to be around 4, if this system did cover every single weekend from 2005-2008.

Have you looked at periods of time to see a pattern of profit, or loss over 05-08?

 

[haywood jablome]

Thats not entirely true haywood jablome.

The frequency of bets depends on what your actual bet type is.

If your look at those who lay for a living. There are many, many punters out there with up to 50+ lays on any given weekend.

There are also punters who win long term that have several selections per day.

How do you know there are people who lay for a living? Are you telling me they live and eat off the winnings from laying horses? What is your source for this information? As I said I am sure there is an extremely small minority who do win long term, good on them, but for the "average joe" which as far as I'm concerned we all fall into, punting isn't a smart option to generate an income.

 

[Oaksnaf]

How do you know there are people who lay for a living? Are you telling me they live and eat off the winnings from laying horses? What is your source for this information? As I said I am sure there is an extremely small minority who do win long term, good on them, but for the "average joe" which as far as I'm concerned we all fall into, punting isn't a smart option to generate an income.

Are you questioning my knowledge, or the argument of a 'professional lay punter'?

 

[haywood jablome]

Are you questioning my knowledge, or the argument of a 'professional lay punter'?

Your knowledge and the fact that a 'professional lay punter' is such a small minority that it is insignificant to this discussion. As I said, I would like to see the results where people are living off their earnings from laying or backing horses, show me over 100 people who have can live off their winnings and have done so for over a year and I will take notice. Bookmakers are of course a totally different story.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Your knowledge and the fact that a 'professional lay punter' is such a small minority that it is insignificant to this discussion. As I said, I would like to see the results where people are living off their earnings from laying or backing horses, show me over 100 people who have can live off their winnings and have done so for over a year and I will take notice. Bookmakers are of course a totally different story.

Wait I can think of a better way.

Hows about you show me 100 profitable business' in Australia that import and sell mustangs.

Yeah...... that will prove a point.

At the end of the day, nobody really cares what someone says. They want to see the facts for themselves.

Good luck with your punting.

 

[haywood jablome]

At the end of the day, nobody really cares what someone says. They want to see the facts for themselves.

It all boils down to this, you are right. I'm not up for giving people false hope, especially when it is their money they are playing with. You can do what you want with your money, but you shouldn't go around giving people false hope especially when you aren't giving any facts and statistics backing up your claim. I'm personally not comfortable recommending someone put their money where probability and this guys personal situation says it will be lost. This isn't just about this post, you have shown a similar attitude to other things including roulette.

 

[Oaksnaf]

It all boils down to this, you are right. I'm not up for giving people false hope, especially when it is their money they are playing with. You can do what you want with your money, but you shouldn't go around giving people false hope especially when you aren't giving any facts and statistics backing up your claim. I'm personally not comfortable recommending someone put their money where probability and this guys personal situation says it will be lost. This isn't just about this post, you have shown a similar attitude to other things including roulette.

The roulette thread.

A quick defensive comment. I never advised anyone to play roulette. I only challenged people's thoughts on probability and possibility. Many disagreed. And they will continue to do so. I can't blame them for doing so at all.

This thread.

Does anyone really win longterm?

Yes. Of course.

Tasmanian David Walsh. One name, one example. There are many more.

But I don't see the need to prove to you as an individual about winning long term. Because I don't really care whether you agree with me or not. I would just like to see you explore the possibilities then come to a decision rather than just building a stone wall and staying put.

Nothing ventured nothing gained.



I understand my own abilities and downfalls when it comes to punting. And I punt within reason of those abilities. I am always trying to stretch the way that I think and approach punting. But would never push the money management side of punting as I feel that it would crumble me.

I like to think differently than the norm.

Another angle, another opinion. It's all positive.

There is no false hope.

You either want to push the boundaries or not.




Plus why are you trying to make this about 'me' and what I should and shouldn't be posting. Maybe we should look at the topic itself and discuss by constructive means and try and help punters like shotgun_blues and myself get another angle of approach. Or a different idea of what can and cannot be done to help improve the likelyhood of winning over a longer period of time.

I also find it funny. That I wish all punters would win, and do post in that manner. Yet the negativity in some response's almost seemingly ignore the good nature of the post and instead nit-pick.

I also mostly like to discuss aspects of punting that don't get discussed that often. Many are too concerned with numbers.

 

[Ill Chicken]

I've seen a few consistent winners. The winners don't chase. The hard part is the discipline of having a bad day and still staying with your system after five bad days of losses, which is what happens, only to see a fill up or a few good days that outweigh the bad run. There are people out their winning, while they're a minority, most of them are winning at between 105% & 120%.

 

[Jan Juc]

A place where I may or may not work has an account that withdraws either $150k or $100k every week - week in, week out.

Hasn't deposited ini over two years I'm pretty sure as well.

 

[brooklynbute]

I no one professional punter...and i no a hell of alot of punters and only one makes a living...the the answer is yes...but its not really a common occurrence that someone can make a living...but i do think a fair few people can make a consistent profit.

I have a good story of when we were apart of the connections of a horse racing at Kilmore and the pro punter which is a good friend..we said to him that we thought the horse was a good thing blah blah and he said no i cant back it of got to stick to my system

our horse went on to win..and he said well done but i have to stick with my system no matter what...thats professional IMO

 

[Ill Chicken]

A place where I may or may not work has an account that withdraws either $150k or $100k every week - week in, week out.

Hasn't deposited ini over two years I'm pretty sure as well.

Ha. So who ever it is has taken 10 million off you in the last 2 years? And why the hell wouldn't he be cut back? Unless who ever you may or may not work for puts all bets from this bloke through the tabs I can't see this being possible.

 

[Almost Famous]

Ha. So who ever it is has taken 10 million off you in the last 2 years? And why the hell wouldn't he be cut back? Unless who ever you may or may not work for puts all bets from this bloke through the tabs I can't see this being possible.

Silly comment. Think about who else he could be talking about. The TAB isn't the only place this could happen.

 

[Jan Juc]

There is really only one person that whoever I may or may not be talking about could really be.