Does anyone really win longterm?

[sethlad]

But money talks and bullsh!t walks and I ain't seeing no cash yet, so unless I start seeing some soon or at least get my money back I'll give it away real soon. I am understanding just how hard it is to turn paper profits into spending money!
I'll guess I'll just stick with it and hopefully it'll turn the corner real soon.

Thanks Ms Fleckman
On a serious note,Id take this discussion to the www.puntingace.com/ forum,
clearly the most astute & helpful lads Ive found & no ridiculous egos.

seth

 

[asanque]

Oaksnaf,

But problem is when I do invest on these (mortgage etc takes priority of course) I seem to lose my money all the time, and when I don't invest the winners come in. It was a laughing matter at first but I am really starting to believe there is some other force at work. Averages say I should be getting my money back, even if only betting a portion of them. Not getting smashed!

Suggested strategy:
1. Find a reliable friend
2. Have him lay against horses you bet on - split profits
3. Have him bet on horses on your system, you don't bet on - split profits
4. Hire yourself out to big punters as a jinx/anti-jinx


Being serious now, don't let it get you down so much.

I'm sure we've all had those times when the betting gods seem to be against you. Whether its having a massive multi fall down on the last shortest leg, to being unable to pick the winner in a two horse race consistently, or watching your unbeatable hand in poker fall to a 1/50 shot on the river.

I've had some amazing bad beats and some ridiculous losses.
I've lost 15 hands of blackjack in a row (when I was in my experimental double up phase), and seen roulette wheels go against me over 17 times in a row.

I also seem to specialise on losing (almost) unbeatable hands on the river in poker.

My most memorable spectacular flop in recent memory was a 10 leg multi, which required Fremantle to beat Melbourne last year. I think the net outcome was approximately $10k, and I watched in great dismay as Fremantle managed to lose from 50 points up at halftime (32 points up at 3/4 time) against a team that won only 3 matches all season and none to that point in time.

Thanks also to Venus for losing against the unknown Spaniard in the Australian Open (see Australian Open thread). And also the umpires for giving 2 votes to Goodes in the brownlow in a match where he got 13 touches and his coach publically berated him.
All costing me a packet.

Overall, long-term I am up, but not enough for the time invested. Also, mainly due to poker (which is possible to consistently win in). I fail miserably at tennis betting.

Edit:
Also some more betting gods madness
Having Freo/Freo against St Kilda a few years back in Tassie, where the ground failed to sound the siren, which resulted in a draw (due to a Saints behind after the siren). That match was overturned by the AFL with a freo win, but centrebet paid on the result directly after the game. (My current betting rule is never bet on Fremantle).

And recently, at the Australian Open, having Andy Roddick with the most aces, and then having the bet overturned due to the Australian Open not recording stats for Gilles Muller's first round match.

I also jinx shares.

Similar to above, I am available for hire if anyone wants.

 

[Hoffy95]

Oh shit man, you have copped it!

And I thought I'd had a bad run with close multis.

I wouldn't know where to begin to try and detail how many thousands of dollars I've missed out on by 1 point here and there.

Beaut thing is though, they are cheap to put on, so you can afford to miss out, but hard to take sometimes. It is ALWAYS the shortest price leg that knocks you out I've come to learn.

 

[Ill Chicken]

Maybe you should get some sleep Ill Chicken...is this discussion causing you to have sleepless nights....its ok we understand

I'm more worried about the sleepless days.

 

[Ill Chicken]

I'm not high enough up to answer the phones yet - I'm only in the office between roughly 5.45pm and 6.30pm emptying the bins, watering the plants, mopping the floors etc.

Oh yeah, and removing unwanted pickles from any of the McDonalds burgers the big guys that answer the phones don't want in their burgers....

Good for you, I wish you all the best.

 

[Almost Famous]

Ever heard of privacy laws IllChicken? You don't appear to be the brightest individual going around old bean.

 

[Oaksnaf]

I meant I had 15 bets across all 6 systems that I use on the weekend. But the top raters have had 26 out of the 208 selections in 2009 for only 1 winner @ $3.

Normally I'd consider 208 selections returning $209 on local tote on 7 weekends on Saturday Metro racing ($230 on best tote) to be quite excellent considering the top raters are really dragging it down, and if I could make 20 units profit every 7-8 weeks (@ best tote) I'd own a Ferrari or three.

But problem is when I do invest on these (mortgage etc takes priority of course) I seem to lose my money all the time, and when I don't invest the winners come in. It was a laughing matter at first but I am really starting to believe there is some other force at work. Averages say I should be getting my money back, even if only betting a portion of them. Not getting smashed!

That is what is so frustrating.

That is where it comes down to consistency. If you set aside a logical bank size and bet within your limits you should be able to ride the long outs and reap the profit in the long term.

From those that I know who are system punters. They always live test every profitable back-filtered system for around three months.

If you are not live testing these systems, then that may be a problem. As we can always find a profitable way to punt in the past. We can always find a profitable way to punt June 07. September 08. But the realistic possibility of placing our hard earned on those systems isn't reality.



If your systems crossover on a selection, are you still staking 1 unit on it. Or 2 units?



Don't forget. You can turn a bad patch into a winning patch through laying your own profitable system.

If you find you are ALWAYS losing on your system. The simple answer to that, would be lay it. 26 lays for a $3 winner. Happy days.

 

[brooklynbute]

asanque...u will find that all pro punters specialise and only bet on 1 thing..something they have perfected and will not bet on anything else what so ever

obviously u betting on london to have a white christmas or sum shit...ur going to lose long term...the amount of sports u seem to bet on im suprised that u no whether ur arthur or martha...people should just stick to what they no..one sport...would be for better off

 

[asanque]

asanque...u will find that all pro punters specialise and only bet on 1 thing..something they have perfected and will not bet on anything else what so ever

obviously u betting on london to have a white christmas or sum shit...ur going to lose long term...the amount of sports u seem to bet on im suprised that u no whether ur arthur or martha...people should just stick to what they no..one sport...would be for better off

I never claimed to be a pro punter.

But I tend to specialise in poker, politics and AFL.

Betting on London to have a white Christmas was a great bet last year.

I stopped blackjack and roulette long ago. Fun to try to beat, but never successful.

 

[Ill Chicken]

Ever heard of privacy laws IllChicken? You don't appear to be the brightest individual going around old bean.

Sorry I didn't realise I'd let private information out about an individual or that I asked anyone for private information about an employer, client or person that would put them, their employer and their employment in jeopardy.

Can you please point out where I've asked for such information? I am truly sorry and can only hope to redeem myself in your eyes by reading and pursuing high brow material and maybe reading a few wikipedia articles on quantum mechanics.

 

[Geeves Train]

Suggested strategy:


Thanks also to Venus for losing against the unknown Spaniard in the Australian Open (see Australian Open thread). And also the umpires for giving 2 votes to Goodes in the brownlow in a match where he got 13 touches and his coach publically berated him.
All costing me a packet.

Ha ha don't I remember this one. Was a leg of my multi which was paying about 40:1. Swans vs Geelong, Bartel manages to collect 40 possesions but doesn't rate a mention. Meanwhile Goodes collects his poultry 13 touches and kicks a goal when the game is dead and gets 2nd BOG.

Moral to this story is back Goodes for the brownlow. Had a woeful year by his standards in 2008 and still polled awesome.

 

[asanque]

Suggested strategy:


Thanks also to Venus for losing against the unknown Spaniard in the Australian Open (see Australian Open thread). And also the umpires for giving 2 votes to Goodes in the brownlow in a match where he got 13 touches and his coach publically berated him.
All costing me a packet.

Ha ha don't I remember this one. Was a leg of my multi which was paying about 40:1. Swans vs Geelong, Bartel manages to collect 40 possesions but doesn't rate a mention. Meanwhile Goodes collects his poultry 13 touches and kicks a goal when the game is dead and gets 2nd BOG.

Moral to this story is back Goodes for the brownlow. Had a woeful year by his standards in 2008 and still polled awesome.

Now now, lets give proper credit to the umpires. I mean Geelong did only win by 42 points.

Goodes didn't kick a goal, but scored 4 behinds.

Obviously Goodes deserved the votes more then Bartel with 27 possessions, 10 tackles and 2 goals.
And more then Stokes with 21 possessions and 4 goals.

Bloody umpires, can't umpire and can't award brownlow votes.

 

[Jan Juc]

Apologiies to all, especially Ill Chicken.


The withdrawal amounts (average weekly) I stated months ago were severely under-stated.

Again, re-visiting the "gist" of this thread - do people consistently win?


Yes. And massively. Although they would seem to be in the smallest of minorities.

 

[Dutchy10]

About 1% of punters win consistently, mainly cause only 1% want to put in the work to be successful

Like anything you get out what you put in....

 

[dr nick]

of course there are punters who win in the long term. It's all about being patient and only ever pouncing when the market has got the %'s wrong. It's easier to punt on big race days where a lot more casual punters are throwing their money on horses ignoring value.

A mate of mine from uni - his dad punts full time for a living... feeds his family out of the income. My uncle considers himself pro and uses a much smaller income stream from punting on the races to supplement a salary.

Me.. I hope one day to become semi professional to supplement my 3 day a week working life. But it takes many hours of hard work and study to make this whole thing any more productive than a lottery.


I'd also be interested to know if the guys being talked about earlier are making their money from tote betting, which i also think is a lot harder to do.

 

[tarky]

it's pretty much a certainty you'll lose in the long term....just do it for a bit of fun and don't bet what you can't afford

 

[Moo]

it's pretty much a certainty you'll lose in the long term....just do it for a bit of fun and don't bet what you can't afford

I just screw around with betting as do a few guys I know.

However I appear to be the only one who even remotely has made a few bucks over the last 5 years.

It all comes down to one thing. I never bet the bank and the cash I make - I give to my wife to buy us (the family) something nice.

Sounds simple but so many times people load up on a $1.30 chance and it falls over.

Depending on my bank is what I bet and then my 2nd super tip is take the bloody cash out when you hit a goal and then re-adjust.

Basically it is in your make up -

* I can still sit down and watch a game of footy or rugby that I have not bet on and enjoy it for what it is
* If I don't like the odds - I don't bet
* If I really, really like the odds - I still don't bet the bank and I will be happy with my win if it comes and not think about the hypothetical money I could have won
* My thrill is to be beat the system more than make a ton of cash. Also if my bets were $10 000 and not $100 - I might not have the balls to look at the games and form in the same way.
* I'm conservative too - I won't make more than a 3 leg multi (normally a 2 leg), I won't back anything under $1.40 (not worth the risk) and I tell my wifey about the losses as well as the wins.
* I'll bet against myself to guarantee a profit if I'm not overly confident (eg I took Stoke and Hull not to finsish bottom ...about 5 weeks ago I took Stoke/Hull to finish bottom for small amounts but it now guarantees a win)
* If I lose my bank (happened once) - I take a break for a month.

My style is to set my own odds and then compare to sportsbet ...I then back my predictions.

I have put in around $1200 over the past 5 years - I am going to get back a thousand after the EPL season, of which I'll take half out and I'll take some long term posiitons into the NFL on the other. Not Superbowl shots but divisional leaders etc.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Long term.

Hardly any average punter would know their balance after a month of betting, let alone a year. "Oh I'm probably up a few hundred, or breaking even".

They punt day to day. Living in memory of their last win.

Dutchy. 1% of punters don't win because they put in the time and effort.

A few years ago. I was putting in 10 hours a day of pure analysis and research. Did I win? No. I lost a lot.

There are many things that make a successful punter. It is not necessarily the time that they put in. BOTs and computer programs, take care of the time factor. Nor the effort.

Don't forget THE EDGE factor.

I got 8 tips in footy last week. Gee, if only I had of bet them...... You could tip 8/8 winners every week and still be a losing punter.

I will never forget the day, I tipped 6 winners in a row. But lost.

There are so many factors.

ONE. ONE important factor.


GREED.




Control the urge of greed. And your halfway there in my opinion.
If you know what your doing and have found an edge and know what bet type suits this edge and you bet this in a BORING fashion and win. Well KUDOS. If you can do all of the above, but get BORED with this betting style. Well.... you are a good tipstar. But not a good gambler.

MASSIVE difference.

 

[tarky]

in the long run the Vigorish will kill you....you pretty much have to beat the bookie 52% of the time to show a profit

 

[Kahuna]

I think you have a lot better chance winning in the long term doing sports bets. The odd's are horse but generally you will know more about each teams compared to horses where you only know about 15% of the horses in the race. Sports probably take less time to research also which probably results in lower odds but you always have the oppurtunity to "get out" if you bet isn't going the way you like by betting 'in play'. Sports probably have more consistency in results but if you can pick a winning horse every now and then you will win but whether you keep doing it is a different matter.

Having said that I'm heading to my TAB to place some bets of some horses this afternoon.

 

[tarky]

I think you have a lot better chance winning in the long term doing sports bets. The odd's are horse but generally you will know more about each teams compared to horses where you only know about 15% of the horses in the race. Sports probably take less time to research also which probably results in lower odds but you always have the oppurtunity to "get out" if you bet isn't going the way you like by betting 'in play'. Sports probably have more consistency in results but if you can pick a winning horse every now and then you will win but whether you keep doing it is a different matter.

Having said that I'm heading to my TAB to place some bets of some horses this afternoon.

heheh all this punting talk got you in the mood ey?

 

[Moo]

You could tip 8/8 winners every week and still be a losing punter.

How would you manage that?

 

[Subaru Impreza]

well I must admit I do win long term. I believe a secret ingredient is knowing your sports well, doing the statistics, analyisis.

Its about predicting the odds you believe are right compared to the market.
]
also arbitrage betting is another way of winning long term. (this is just like in finance, where you lock in profits from both sides)

 

[Kahuna]

OK after today I don't think their is any way to win longterm.

 

[tarky]

yep it's a mugs game really....still fun to have a bet here and there