Double Ups…. 2022 draw in hindsight

[Timmy from Thomastown]

With a lopsided ladder this year, teams lucky enough to get double up games against bottom five sides could benefit…. Especially those who play north and west coast…or both. Just thought I’d do a little analysis for the fun of it. The draw of course is partly manufactured to benefit weaker sides based on ladder position but it doesn’t always work out that way as teams naturally improve or get worse.

Geelong and Gold Coast ( and Crows but they don’t really matter) have double ups against both North and West Coast…that’s a great adavantage for extra wins and percentage. That will mean the difference in where in the eight they land in September while other top eight sides have had tougher draws playing against each other.

The Suns have the benefit of a great draw with only one double up against a top eight side

Giants by far have the toughest draw but StKilda who are doing well thi year also have tough double ups.


2022 double ups ( with the number against round 11 bottom five teams in brackets)


Adelaide Crows: Carlton, Collingwood, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, West Coast Eagles (two games against bottom five sides)

Brisbane Lions: Essendon, Gold Coast Suns, GWS Giants, Melbourne, St Kilda (two)

Carlton: Adelaide Crows, Collingwood, Fremantle, GWS Giants, Richmond (two)

Collingwood: Adelaide Crows, Carlton, Essendon, Gold Coast Suns, Melbourne (two)

Essendon: Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Richmond, Sydney Swans (none)

Fremantle: Carlton, GWS Giants, Melbourne, St Kilda, West Coast Eagles (two)

Geelong Cats: North Melbourne, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, West Coast Eagles, Western Bulldogs (two)

Gold Coast Suns: Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, West Coast Eagles (two plus sixth bottom hawthorn)

GWS Giants: Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Fremantle, Sydney Swans, Western Bulldogs (none, in fact all of their double ups are top eight sides)

Hawthorn: Gold Coast Suns, North Melbourne, Richmond, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs (one)

Melbourne: Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs (none)

North Melbourne: Adelaide Crows, Geelong Cats, Gold Coast Suns, Hawthorn, Sydney Swans (one)

Port Adelaide: Adelaide Crows, Essendon, Geelong Cats, Melbourne, Richmond (two)

Richmond: Carlton, Essendon, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, West Coast Eagles (two)

St Kilda: Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, Geelong Cats, Hawthorn, Sydney Swans (none)

Sydney Swans: Essendon, GWS Giants, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs (two)

West Coast Eagles: Adelaide Crows, Fremantle, Geelong Cats, Gold Coast Suns, Richmond (one)

Western Bulldogs: Geelong Cats, GWS Giants, Hawthorn, Melbourne, Sydney Swans (none)

 

[Pistol Night]

When Melbourne, Gold Coast and Carlton were s**t we got them once a year

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

When Melbourne, Gold Coast and Carlton were s**t we got them once a year

Well not Carlton so much but yep.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Four teams have double ups against both of the bottom two sides. You’d reckon the afl would grow a brain and spread the love around a bit.

It’s not as if them being s**t has come as a surprise

 

[Bianconeri]

When Melbourne, Gold Coast and Carlton were s**t we got them once a year

We had Melbourne twice in 2010 when they were complete s**t only to win by a point in round 2 and draw the queens birthday.

 

[Bianconeri]

There needs to be more games per season. 22 games isn’t enough for an 18 team competition.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

There needs to be more games per season. 22 games isn’t enough for an 18 team competition.

Ain’t gunna happen.

 

[Bianconeri]

Ain’t gunna happen.

Thanks

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

We had Melbourne twice in 2010 when they were complete s**t only to win by a point in round 2 and draw the queens birthday.

True but that draw ( or the win) could easily have been a loss against a better side. That draw gave us top spot by half a game and gifted us the easy QF against the Dogs, while StKilda and Geelong had to belt each other up on the other side of the finals draw in a grand final replay.

There were only three teams in with a chance that year.

It all helps.

 

[Markfs]

i'm not sure about the thread title timothy....i find it lacks a bit of clarity.

 

[Pistol Night]

How did Geelong get a double up against North after finishing top 4 last year.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

How did Geelong get a double up against North after finishing top 4 last year.

Just pure luck

FYI the 2021 end of season ladder positions of their double up opponents were…..

North Melbourne 18, St Kilda 10 , Port Adelaide 2 , West Coast Eagles 9 , Western Bulldogs 5

StKilda the only team that has improved ….

 

[76woodenspooners]

Four teams have double ups against both of the bottom two sides. You’d reckon the afl would grow a brain and spread the love around a bit.

It’s not as if them being s**t has come as a surprise

The AFL can only reasonably set the fixture based on the previous season’s ladder positions.

Sure, north were wooden spooners, but West Coast were 9th.

 

[domus]

I am hoping we get a good run home with Grundy ( if his VFL form warrants it ), Charlie Dean, AJ, Carmichael and even Billy who seems to find endless ways to be unavailable can all get some games under their belt, we may well sneak into the eight.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

The AFL can only reasonably set the fixture based on the previous season’s ladder positions.

Sure, north were wooden spooners, but West Coast were 9th.

True…definitely luck involved….. but four teams drawing the same two teams as double ups… maybe they could spread it out a bit.

 

[nahnah]

When Melbourne, Gold Coast and Carlton were s**t we got them once a year

Carlton still s**t tbf

 

[nahnah]

We had Melbourne twice in 2010 when they were complete s**t only to win by a point in round 2 and draw the queens birthday.

character building results that propelled us to a flag

 

[Chief Ten Beers]

When Melbourne, Gold Coast and Carlton were s**t we got them once a year

I remember when the Cats and Hawks were in their prime, Pies would constantly get them last round or thereabouts just before finals. Then it changed to playing Richmond twice. Now Melbourne.

Classic AFL.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

With a lopsided ladder this year, teams lucky enough to get double up games against bottom five sides could benefit…. Especially those who play north and west coast…or both. Just thought I’d do a little analysis for the fun of it. The draw of course is partly manufactured to benefit weaker sides based on ladder position but it doesn’t always work out that way as teams naturally improve or get worse.

Geelong and Gold Coast ( and Crows but they don’t really matter) have double ups against both North and West Coast…that’s a great adavantage for extra wins and percentage. That will mean the difference in where in the eight they land in September while other top eight sides have had tougher draws playing against each other…. The only team in the eight with that luxury.

The Suns have the benefit of a great draw with only one double up against a top eight side

Giants by far have the toughest draw but StKilda who are doing well thi year also have tough double ups.


2022 double ups ( with the number against round 11 bottom five teams in brackets)


Adelaide Crows: Carlton, Collingwood, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, West Coast Eagles (two games against bottom five sides)

Brisbane Lions: Essendon, Gold Coast Suns, GWS Giants, Melbourne, St Kilda (two)

Carlton: Adelaide Crows, Collingwood, Fremantle, GWS Giants, Richmond (two)

Collingwood: Adelaide Crows, Carlton, Essendon, Gold Coast Suns, Melbourne (two)

Essendon: Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Richmond, Sydney Swans (none)

Fremantle: Carlton, GWS Giants, Melbourne, St Kilda, West Coast Eagles (two)

Geelong Cats: North Melbourne, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, West Coast Eagles, Western Bulldogs (two)

Gold Coast Suns: Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, West Coast Eagles (two plus sixth bottom hawthorn)

GWS Giants: Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Fremantle, Sydney Swans, Western Bulldogs (none, in fact all of their double ups are top eight sides)

Hawthorn: Gold Coast Suns, North Melbourne, Richmond, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs (one)

Melbourne: Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs (none)

North Melbourne: Adelaide Crows, Geelong Cats, Gold Coast Suns, Hawthorn, Sydney Swans (one)

Port Adelaide: Adelaide Crows, Essendon, Geelong Cats, Melbourne, Richmond (two)

Richmond: Carlton, Essendon, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, West Coast Eagles (two)

St Kilda: Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, Geelong Cats, Hawthorn, Sydney Swans (none)

Sydney Swans: Essendon, GWS Giants, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs (two)

West Coast Eagles: Adelaide Crows, Fremantle, Geelong Cats, Gold Coast Suns, Richmond (one)

Western Bulldogs: Geelong Cats, GWS Giants, Hawthorn, Melbourne, Sydney Swans (none)

Bump….. it’s not hard to tell why Geelong are on top of the ladder. None of their double up games have been against sides currently in the top eight. On top of that they have had the benefit of playing both north and west coast twice this year.

Compare that to Collingwood (who were supposed to get a more generous draw after finishing 17th) ….double ups with two top eight sides and neither of the bottom two.

Top eight side double ups against top eight and bottom two teams…

Brisbane one top eight no bottom two
Cartlon three and none
Collingwood two and none
Fremantle two and one
Geelong none and two
Melbourne three and none
Richmond one and one
Sydney none and one


I know there’s a decent element of luck in the draw here ( Collingwood weren’t expected to be in the, eight, dogs were etc) but regardless there are some massive distortions here .

Geelong has benefitted from a large advantage with all their double up games against teams outside the eight including both the two worst teams. Sydney also a huge beneficiary.

Melbourne as reigning premiers have rightfully copped the toughest draw….( poor bastards had to play Collingwood twice hahah) ….along with Carlton … and Collingwood just behind.

 

[mocamagic]

We've had 8 wins against Melbourne, Essendon, Gold Coast and Adelaide

Could be a perfect ten out of ten with a last round win over Carlton.

 

[KinderSmock]

There needs to be more games per season. 22 games isn’t enough for an 18 team competition.

Disagree here. 22 games is long enough for a highly physical game. NFL only has an 18 week season and it has 32 teams.

 

[MyManLynch]

Simple solution:
Play 17 rounds (play everyone once).
Last 5 rounds split into 3 seeded groupings.
Ladder positions end round 17.
1-6
7-12
13-18

Top 6 player each other once again.
Middle 6 same, bottom 6 same.
This ensures a level playing field for all..no soft draws.
Teams finishing 7-8th would have a softer draw than teams just above them….

Challenges to overcome:
No firm fixture in place for last 5 rounds until completion of round 17.
Availability of grounds on short notice?
Need to balance out home games v away games (could present some fixturing/ground clashes).

Could have the bye round after round 17 (for all teams), 1 week rest, then commence the the final 5 rounds (which I will name the Super 6’s).
Then, pre finals bye…then standard 4 weeks Finals

 

[Doc1763]

Simple solution:
Play 17 rounds (play everyone once).
Last 5 rounds split into 3 seeded groupings.
Ladder positions end round 17.
1-6
7-12
13-18

Top 6 player each other once again.
Middle 6 same, bottom 6 same.
This ensures a level playing field for all..no soft draws.

Challenges to overcome:
No firm fixture in place for last 5 rounds until completion of round 17.
Availability of grounds on short notice?
Need to balance out home games v away games (could present some fixturing/ground clashes).

Could have the bye round after round 17 (for all teams), 1 week rest, then commence the the final 5 rounds (which I will name the Super 6’s).

I think that is the perfect solution

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Simple solution:
Play 17 rounds (play everyone once).
Last 5 rounds split into 3 seeded groupings.
Ladder positions end round 17.
1-6
7-12
13-18

Top 6 player each other once again.
Middle 6 same, bottom 6 same.
This ensures a level playing field for all..no soft draws.
Teams finishing 7-8th would have a softer draw than teams just above them….

Challenges to overcome:
No firm fixture in place for last 5 rounds until completion of round 17.
Availability of grounds on short notice?
Need to balance out home games v away games (could present some fixturing/ground clashes).

Could have the bye round after round 17 (for all teams), 1 week rest, then commence the the final 5 rounds (which I will name the Super 6’s).
Then, pre finals bye…then standard 4 weeks Finals

It wasn’t my intention to start a thread on the alternatives but to force the top six sides to crash and bash each other in the last five rounds in a fake finals series is ludicrous . You’d be aiming for 7th place… knowing 50 percent of teams above you are guaranteed to lose and you get to play five teams below you to take advantage.

 

[MyManLynch]

It wasn’t my intention to start a thread on the alternatives but to force the top six sides to crash and bash each other in the last five rounds in a fake finals series is ludicrous . You’d be aiming for 7th place… knowing 50 percent of teams above you are guaranteed to lose and you get to play five teams below you to take advantage.

So Collingwood playing Melbourne, Sydney & Carlton this year is also ludicrous?
I think not.