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Prediction DRAFT POLL_PICK #25_FINAL

Who do you want/think we'll take at #25?

  • Total voters
    124

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Bic said:
I heard rumors GWS have stashed Macreadie away and basically removed him from under the nose of a lot of recruiters this year. Was put in a school with no AFL program either.

Could be bull dust, but they have form with hiding players...
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According to Brett Anderson GWS were only looking to take 3 of the academy boys. Lemmingmaster also said the same on the AFL Board's Phantom Draft. Two of those players are Setterfield & Perryman while the 3rd is rumoured to be Cumming.

GWS also re-signed KPD Tim Mohr for another 2 years a week or so ago, which might give an idea as to where their priorities lie. After all, with Davis, Haynes, Tomlinson, Himmelberg, Finlayson, Corr & Mohr, they're hardly struggling for a KPD. Reckon if we bid @25 there's a fair chance we may own. SOS would have a fair bit of inside knowledge on him too.
 
Blue By Blood said:
At this pick (barring any potential slider like Witherden or Venables) it has to be Mutch or Drew at pick 25 (after putting in a Macreadie bid). Powell-Pepper and Clarke butcher the ball too much for my liking. Kerr is way too high at 25. His lack of agility will scare off recruiters (similar for Battle).

Witherden would be ideal to replace Tuohy but is most likely gone by our pick.
Venables would provide us with something a bit different. Initially playing up forward but a possibility to forge a more permanent midfield role.
Macreadie was touted as a top 5 pick this time last year. I'm not sure why he hasn't had a fantastic year but I'd be backing him in to become a very, very good player in a professional AFL environment. I just like the way he moves for a big kid and my gut feel is he becomes a pretty special player.
Mutch is just a natural ball winner/accumulator - something we genuinely lack. He's no superstar but would be a perfect fit in our engine room next to the beast in Cripps and potentially the class of SPS.
Drew is undersold by most on here. Knightmare has him at number 10 in his power rankings and he has been pretty accurate historically with these lists. Powerful inside mid on par with Brodie in this regard. Didn't get to play much midfield during the championships but had a very solid TAC Cup season. Big tackler, big clearance player, and stepped up during the TAC finals.
Ridley is the other guy I think we will consider if he's available. A lot to like about this kid and I like his kicking and disposal efficiency.
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I actually hope its Mutch we take at 25. As you said, after a Macreadie bid. Mutch has really developed his inside game, to match his very good outside skills. Don't see GWS matching on Kobe Mutch. I hope we don't waste pick 25 on Kerr.
 
The Smoking Gun said:
According to Brett Anderson GWS were only looking to take 3 of the academy boys. Lemmingmaster also said the same on the AFL Board's Phantom Draft. Two of those players are Setterfield & Perryman while the 3rd is rumoured to be Cumming.

GWS also re-signed KPD Tim Mohr for another 2 years a week or so ago, which might give an idea as to where their priorities lie. After all, with Davis, Haynes, Tomlinson, Himmelberg, Finlayson, Corr & Mohr, they're hardly struggling for a KPD. Reckon if we bid @25 there's a fair chance we may own. SOS would have a fair bit of inside knowledge on him too.
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That's just nonsense. Do the maths, and you'll see that GWS should have no trouble matching the expected range of at least 7 bids, the tricky part simply comes down to how high the bids for Mutch, Perryman, Macreadie and Cumming come in. I think Sproule and Mutch have slid a bit, but make no mistake that GWS have 3,497 points after #2.

They aren't going to twiddle their thumbs with 7 picks between #37 and #60 when bids come in. They have 8 list spots to fill and they will not scoff at these guys if they are remotely in their price range, particularly after the 2nd round.
 

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Jimmae said:
That's just nonsense. Do the maths, and you'll see that GWS should have no trouble matching the expected range of at least 7 bids, the tricky part simply comes down to how high the bids for Mutch, Perryman, Macreadie and Cumming come in. I think Sproule and Mutch have slid a bit, but make no mistake that GWS have 3,497 points after #2.

They aren't going to twiddle their thumbs with 7 picks between #37 and #60 when bids come in. They have 8 list spots to fill and they will not scoff at these guys if they are remotely in their price range, particularly after the 2nd round.
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If Setterfield gets bid on at 5 and Perryman around 11, they will lose the majority of those picks
 
I have voted Dylan Clarke, as I have throughout. First noticed him last year in TAC finals when he was as
impressive as his brother who has already tasted AFL action. Reputed to be top notch academically and a
great young bloke. Very impressive with his hands in close as his left foot is nowhere near as poor as some
make it out to be. Bolts wants to incorporate ball winners and lefties. He fits the bill and offers long term
back up for Cripps. Was preferred in the engine room to the more highly rated McGrath, Taranto and co.
I believe he could be a steal in the range projected by some.

Conversely, Kobe Mutch would be worth a bid as again is prolific and pretty much two sided by foot. Would
be surprised if a bid was not matched despite some phantom spruikers. Would not surprise if taken higher.

Phantoms have us linked with Drew. Can't say have seen much TAC cup, but was not as clean or composed
as some of his peers in the champs, so have to say I would be a little disappointed.
 
Arr0w said:
If Setterfield gets bid on at 5 and Perryman around 11, they will lose the majority of those picks
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There'd still be 1000-1050 points on the table (their remaining picks would shift up after the Perryman bid), and that is the absolute maximum those two will go.

If it really pans out as suggested by the media phantoms and Cumming then gets a bid at #23 (by then #24), that's nearly 500 left (again, another pick shuffle).

They just need to carry those remaining points to close to the end of the second round (roughly pick 44 on estimates). A small deficit in the second round of next year will not faze them, nor will 3rd round deficits. It's a quick run from 44 to 56, at which point bids can be matched for free.

FWIW, I don't think Cumming will be bid on at #23, I think the next off the board after Perryman will be Macreadie, then Cumming and Mutch around 28-35. I think the worst case scenario for GWS (assuming Essendon do not bid) is:

#2, Setterfield, Perryman, Macreadie, Cumming, Sproule, Garthwaite, Fisher.

If things go their way, they get Mutch instead of Fisher.
 
Jimmae said:
That's just nonsense. Do the maths, and you'll see that GWS should have no trouble matching the expected range of at least 7 bids, the tricky part simply comes down to how high the bids for Mutch, Perryman, Macreadie and Cumming come in. I think Sproule and Mutch have slid a bit, but make no mistake that GWS have 3,497 points after #2.

They aren't going to twiddle their thumbs with 7 picks between #37 and #60 when bids come in. They have 8 list spots to fill and they will not scoff at these guys if they are remotely in their price range, particularly after the 2nd round.
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Irrespective of how many list spots GWS have to fill what makes you think will take ALL the academy boys???
Why do GWS have to take all the academy boys???
Are you implying that they can't select from the pool of normal prospects???
Are you claiming that they have to demonstrate they have enough points to take everyone that's available in their academy before they can select anyone else???

It's not all about ****ing points. It's about improving your list and you're also assuming that they're prepared to go into deficit. Using all the points available to them this year will not allow them to fill those 8 list spots, at least through the draft anyway. With impending draft penalties the other clubs will go into meltdown if GWS are allowed to go into deficit on picks that may not end up being theirs. Why would you re-sign a 28 year old KPD for 2 years when he only played 2 games last year when you've got an 18 year old KPD available to you in the draft??? They've already got 7 or 8 of them so it's not like they're going to be busting a gut to get another one.
 
Jimmae said:
There'd still be 1000-1050 points on the table (their remaining picks would shift up after the Perryman bid), and that is the absolute maximum those two will go.

If it really pans out as suggested by the media phantoms and Cumming then gets a bid at #23 (by then #24), that's nearly 500 left (again, another pick shuffle).

They just need to carry those remaining points to close to the end of the second round (roughly pick 44 on estimates). A small deficit in the second round of next year will not faze them, nor will 3rd round deficits. It's a quick run from 44 to 56, at which point bids can be matched for free.

FWIW, I don't think Cumming will be bid on at #23, I think the next off the board after Perryman will be Macreadie, then Cumming and Mutch around 28-35. I think the worst case scenario for GWS (assuming Essendon do not bid) is:

#2, Setterfield, Perryman, Macreadie, Cumming, Sproule, Garthwaite, Fisher.

If things go their way, they get Mutch instead of Fisher.
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Yes agreed, although, if Setterfield gets a bid at 5, Perryman at 11 and 2 others around the 25 to 28 mark, their picks are done, unless they don't match a bid for one of the kids in the mid 20's

Will be interesting
 
If available...Shai Bolton. Loved his moves in the TAC All Stars game...has dash, evasive skills. Something we are in dire need of...
 
reading through a lot of phantom/mock drafts and there is some very good names that slip to us at 25 that others consider between 10 & 20. Could land a real star at that pick. Will be the most interesting selection of the draft.

Get SPS at 5 and then one of Venables Ridley Cox x 2 Much Powell-Pepper or Marshall and its a great start
 
Azul said:
You only 'throw away the rights' if you don't rate him. Adelaide bat deep in this draft until pick 90. He's a chance not to be drafted at all.

Let's say there were some residual interest from Adelaide - they'd hope to take him as a rookie.
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Means he's not good enough doesn't it? That is, if they nominate him they can still pass on him if a club picks him too early. Or have i got that wrong.
 
The Smoking Gun said:
Irrespective of how many list spots GWS have to fill what makes you think will take ALL the academy boys???
Why do GWS have to take all the academy boys???
Are you implying that they can't select from the pool of normal prospects???
Are you claiming that they have to demonstrate they have enough points to take everyone that's available in their academy before they can select anyone else???

It's not all about ******* points. It's about improving your list and you're also assuming that they're prepared to go into deficit. Using all the points available to them this year will not allow them to fill those 8 list spots, at least through the draft anyway. With impending draft penalties the other clubs will go into meltdown if GWS are allowed to go into deficit on picks that may not end up being theirs. Why would you re-sign a 28 year old KPD for 2 years when he only played 2 games last year when you've got an 18 year old KPD available to you in the draft??? They've already got 7 or 8 of them so it's not like they're going to be busting a gut to get another one.
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They won't have a pick before #40 after Setterfield and Perryman go off the board, and they'd still have 4 academy kids they'd rate before said pick.

Arr0w said:
Yes agreed, although, if Setterfield gets a bid at 5, Perryman at 11 and 2 others around the 25 to 28 mark, their picks are done, unless they don't match a bid for one of the kids in the mid 20's

Will be interesting
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That's about an 600-700 point 2nd round deficit if they target Sproule and Mutch; they would take that hit. Keep in mind that you're suggesting Sydney or GCS are bidding on Perryman if you're calling him at #11.
 

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Jimmae said:
That's about an 600-700 point 2nd round deficit if they target Sproule and Mutch; they would take that hit. Keep in mind that you're suggesting Sydney or GCS are bidding on Perryman if you're calling him at #11.
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It is a possibility, Perryman is a type of player that Sydney would embrace, having said that, more likely a couple of spots back :thumbsu:
 
Interesting that Balmer has Hayward falling to our second, it seems as though if GWS doesn't match a bid for Cumming @ 13 and the right players are on the board for Port, he's a big chance.

It's interesting, 2-3 weeks out from the draft last year people were saying we were spending a huge amount of time on Curnow, but he was no chance getting to our pick. Maybe that's the case for Hayward? People thinking (hoping) we will be reaching with our first but in reality it was for our second pick all along.
 

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Soapy V said:
Yes. Has poise and time and knows how to find it. Apparently really good engine as well. Massive upside
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I completely agree. "Has poise and time"

But I have seen him play a number of times, on all of those occasions, he has been used down back, or a lead up forward. Never once have I seen him through the middle. At best he would be an outside wingman.
 

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Prediction DRAFT POLL_PICK #25_FINAL

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