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Competitions Draft Prediction - 23 & 28

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Why do we have a compo pick ?

If I'm not mistaken, we did a pick swap with the Pies last year and got their compo pick, that they received when they lost Josh Frazer to the Gold Coast - I think the pick can be banked until the 2014 draft.
 
Ryder, Drew Petrie, David Hille,Matthew Kruiser and the now retired Ottens.

There's a difference between a ruckman playing forward as a third tall and a quality FF or CHF.

You cannot honestly say any of the above are quality KPF's. Petrie is pretty good but he's also not 200+cm. In fact he's just 1cm taller then Franklin whilst being 5cm shorter then Lycett.

Only Ottens, Hille and Kreuzer are 200+cm.

Since being at Geelong, Ottens has kicked more then 20 goals just 3 times. His highest tally being 26.

Hille has kicked more then 20 goals just once in his career (2 x 20's) and that total was 25.

Kreuzer has kicked 38 career goals, his highest tally being 13.

No doubt they mixed duties but none are genuine quality KPF's that we are discussing.

Ruckman do need to impact when resting forward, but that's not the same.
 

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There's a difference between a ruckman playing forward as a third tall and a quality FF or CHF.

You cannot honestly say any of the above are quality KPF's. Petrie is pretty good but he's also not 200+cm. In fact he's just 1cm taller then Franklin whilst being 5cm shorter then Lycett.

Only Ottens, Hille and Kreuzer are 200+cm.

Since being at Geelong, Ottens has kicked more then 20 goals just 3 times. His highest tally being 26.

Hille has kicked more then 20 goals just once in his career (2 x 20's) and that total was 25.

Kreuzer has kicked 38 career goals, his highest tally being 13.

No doubt they mixed duties but none are genuine quality KPF's that we are discussing.

Ruckman do need to impact when resting forward, but that's not the same.

Fair enough but the landscape has changed with this new sub rule, thats why I posted that future forward lines may evolve into having one true quality KP forward over 190cm (Kennedy), a resting ruck plus a couple of 190cm agile, quick but strong HFFer ala Darling and say Murdock types. These two are like 'battlecruisers', they pack a punch but you don't lose out with speed or endurance.
 
I know this is obvious if you think about it but we're clearly interested in picking up another winger.

We've been linked to Hill, Merrett and Murdoch. All wingers - even Murdoch should end up as one.

Yep. With Woosh bringing the 'succession planning' line out I'm thinking they want another Embley winger to compliment what we have. Then the links to McCinnes, Talia, Schade, Lockyer etc from people including Quayle, means a FB to take Glass' spot (imo). Not sure if that's how they'll go on the day, but they're clearly targeting specific spots where current club greats are going to exit soon.

Maybe they will overlook the smaller type forward we think we need in the ND altogether, thinking there's more chance of finding a good enough 'small' in the RD (to go along with Neates, Weedon, Hill, Hams), than taking a small in the ND and finding a good enough KD in the RD.....I just confused the shit out of myself.:D

Basically: A good young KD at 23/28 and a small forward in the RD (Gilligan)>>>>A good young small (Newman) at 23/28 and a KD in the RD.
 
There's a rumor going around that Brad Hill went in for a medical today - at the Eagles, so that ties in with the thinking we are looking for a winger.
 
Why is always a rumour? How hard is it for someone to say "He went in today" rather than relying on 15th hand info.

If its rumour, safe to say its probably bullshit.
 

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Stephen Hill is a purely outside mid. They're always going to look soft (and useless) if the inside players aren't there, and that's what happened with Freo this year. And closer to home, we're all familiar with the gap between Embley's best and worst.

With a fit midfield at Freo, Hill will be dangerous again. And the media will once again praise Freo's foresight for drafting him over Rich like they were a year or so ago :p

If Brad is as talented as Stephen then we'd be crazy not to draft him. Embley's not getting any younger, and I can't think of any other genuine outside mids on our list. It's a big weakness, we have plenty of in-and-under grunts but no one to run and carry the ball.

Two days 'til draft day :)
 
Stephen Hill is a purely outside mid. They're always going to look soft (and useless) if the inside players aren't there, and that's what happened with Freo this year. And closer to home, we're all familiar with the gap between Embley's best and worst.

With a fit midfield at Freo, Hill will be dangerous again. And the media will once again praise Freo's foresight for drafting him over Rich like they were a year or so ago :p

If Brad is as talented as Stephen then we'd be crazy not to draft him. Embley's not getting any younger, and I can't think of any other genuine outside mids on our list. It's a big weakness, we have plenty of in-and-under grunts but no one to run and carry the ball.

Two days 'til draft day :)


We all know Hill's impressive stats - but is he really the best option for the position (s) you mention ? Clubs do due diligence on a number of kids - many on a hope rather than a belief they will still be available at the time - but despite my love of WP, I think there may be better options.

Maybe they hope with all the interest Freo may wonder what WC know that they dont and swoop, leaving the real target behind
 
I hope we don't get Hill, we require elite kicks and he seems to be an exceptional athlete not a gun footballer. He did not dominate in colts and unlike other young blokes didn't get a go at senior level.

I would be going with the best mid slider with our first pick, ie an outside runner with elite kicking skills and goal kicking ability. Then Newman with our 2nd pick, he is also highly skilled and suits our needs.

We can't keep hoping to pick up a crumber with a rookie pick, too few of our list are goal kickers and every midfielder we pick from now must have the ability to kick about a goal a game like Judd, cousins, embley. In the finals when our forwards are well held we struggle to kick a score, quick players who break the lines and kick goals can change the mix and open it up for our forwards.

We have the grunt we need the flair.
 
I actually don't mind the prospect of drafting him.

Firstly, the delisting of Jordan Jones should show, there's no good being average at a whole lot of things. To make it, you really need some elite characteristics to add to being able to do most things. Hill already has elite pace and endurance by AFL standards, so now it's just about getting the football side up to average and he'll probably be an above average AFL player... Ok, easier said than done but I wonder how many potentially above average players there are in this draft.

Secondly, the only thing worse than messing up a draft pick is messing up a pick but having them stay on your list for half a decade while you work out if they're actually any good. At least with Hill it shouldn't take more than the 2 year rookie contract to see if he's making quick enough progress with his football skills.
 

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I actually don't mind the prospect of drafting him.

Firstly, the delisting of Jordan Jones should show, there's no good being average at a whole lot of things. To make it, you really need some elite characteristics to add to being able to do most things. Hill already has elite pace and endurance by AFL standards, so now it's just about getting the football side up to average and he'll probably be an above average AFL player... Ok, easier said than done but I wonder how many potentially above average players there are in this draft.

Secondly, the only thing worse than messing up a draft pick is messing up a pick but having them stay on your list for half a decade while you work out if they're actually any good. At least with Hill it shouldn't take more than the 2 year rookie contract to see if he's making quick enough progress with his football skills.


Understand your argument but disagree with the example. WC have an elite beep test runner on their list (Dalziell) and had an elite long distance runner (Houlihan) neither of whom could get a game, simply because they're not adequate footballers. Undoubtedly Hill has elite running skills but the last time I looked WC were in the football game not the athletics one.

Interestingly Sheehans take on the top 30 excluded Brad Mckenzie who is (IMO) a seriously better fooballer than Hill. He is left footed (a bonus), is a 189cm wingman/HBFer/HFF'er (fantastic size), is from S.A. (less likely to go home) AND IS an ELITE kick.

The modern game allows you a career if you are slow or fast , short or tall, but it is unforgiving if you cant kick.
 
Understand your argument but disagree with the example. WC have an elite beep test runner on their list (Dalziell) and had an elite long distance runner (Houlihan) neither of whom could get a game, simply because they're not adequate footballers. Undoubtedly Hill has elite running skills but the last time I looked WC were in the football game not the athletics one.

True.

It's a calculated risk, I suppose. If it turns out, we've got a gun, if it doesn't, we miss with a pick we're likely to miss with anyway. That beats having a miss or a player who'll always be on the fringe.

I see your point though.
 
If we're looking at Talia, then I'm officially sold now....Just read in the HS that Geelong are a big chance to take him. Written by Geelong man Jay Clark who wrote for the local paper here for 5 or so years, so would have great contacts.

Basically this: If the best recruiter (Stephen Wells) of all-time likes someone, then I like that someone.
 
I'm not sold on B.Hill, but he does have the one attribute we lack most (elite speed), and combined with elite fitness that is a fantastic weapon.

He may never be an absolute elite kick, but that is not why we are drafting him...

I also think the coaches would be rapt to get a guy who they can work with from day 1 on football abilities - knowing that he already has the fitness to cut it!
 
Understand your argument but disagree with the example. WC have an elite beep test runner on their list (Dalziell) and had an elite long distance runner (Houlihan) neither of whom could get a game, simply because they're not adequate footballers. Undoubtedly Hill has elite running skills but the last time I looked WC were in the football game not the athletics one.

Interestingly Sheehans take on the top 30 excluded Brad Mckenzie who is (IMO) a seriously better fooballer than Hill. He is left footed (a bonus), is a 189cm wingman/HBFer/HFF'er (fantastic size), is from S.A. (less likely to go home) AND IS an ELITE kick.

The modern game allows you a career if you are slow or fast , short or tall, but it is unforgiving if you cant kick.

Very true. So many string beans have been picked on the back of good times at DC, and people get seduced by this myth that once they've 'filled out' and 'developed' and 'learned the game' etc, then they'll be 'unstoppable'. The super tall/athletic 'project' KFs with 'upside' mostly end up being nothing special at all.

I love Stephen Wells and Derek Hines' style of just picking talented and driven players regardless of body shape or height.

Chapman, Hunt, Stokes, Christensen, Ling, and even Bartel went later than they should have....I can only imagine it's because they didn't dominate the DC and their 'upside' or 'scope for improvement' was questioned by stupid recruiters. Jordan Schroder will probably dominate from next year too.

Then there's the big arse Collingwood team. To look at physically, a lot of their players look like country league players.....Short, big arses, hairy, slow etc....But good players.
 

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Competitions Draft Prediction - 23 & 28

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