List Mgmt. Draft thread - 2025 (remaining picks: 29, 34)

[Keys]

Live draft hand
R1: 1 (Duursma), 4 (CDT), 19 (Lindsay)
R2: 29, 34
RD: 1

Draft picks pre-draft
R1: 1, 2, 13
R2: 34, 41
RD: 1

List spots available
Main list: 2 (includes Duursma, CDT, Lindsay)
Cat A Rookie list: 1 (expecting Robertson, Macrae and Schoenberg to join as SSP signings)
Cat B Rookie list: 1

Draft order

Spoiler

Draft prospect video highlights (thanks to noobermensch)

Rookie Me Central 2025 Draft Guide

2025 AFL Draft Guide

online.fliphtml5.com

Matthew Clarke on Gettable 17/11

Spoiler

Cal Twomey’s Phantom Draft

Spoiler

 

[eaglevision]

How dare you come in here talking sense to the echo chamber

1,2 for 5,6,9,F1 (ESS). You doing that mat11?

 

[Godfather32]

1,2 for 5,6,9,F1 (ESS). You doing that mat11?

Essendon aren't doing that

 

[eaglevision]

Essendon aren't doing that

But is Mat?

Agree it’s overs, how would you balance it?

 

[jatz14]

That list is also just a few of the biggest steals, conversely the list of duds taken in the top 10 would be silly to post given its length and breadth.

What evidence is there to suggest recruiters are better now than an arbitrary time from the past?

Its like science. It isnt always right, but you make the best decision you can make from the best data you have available. This isnt always going to get you the right answer, because the best data you have isnt always enough, BUT, its more likely to be the right answer than any other process will get you.

To ignore the recruiters because of past errors is folly, because they were probably more right than you would have been at the time.

 

[Godfather32]

But is Mat?

Agree it’s overs, how would you balance it?

I wouldn't, it's not worth talking about because it's completely unrealistic and it's not going to happen

 

[TheBudgies]

The duds taken in the top 10 in the past decade, outside of the covid years probably, are a lot less than they were a decade+ ago.

Maybe a number of them haven't lived up to expectations but the majority of them have carved out at least a decent career.

This is more than a question of busts. CDT will be fine. Will have be a 250+ game player and be a walk up start each week eventually? I dont really think so. He'll be fine and could well overshoot where I currently expect him to be. I would think he's looking at about top 12-14 in this class with maybe 130-190 games across 2-3 clubs. He wont be a 'bust' but he wont be a top 3 player in 15 years.

 

[WCEswift]

Kye fincher is a name i missed 40 in yellow.. this kid is a ****in goer. i wouldnt mind him

Saints NGA not expected to match

 

[Truly Lazuli]

Yep, 23 minutes of his 30 minute timeslot will be ads.

Yeah 23 is the devil's number after all

 

[Wedgetailed Westerner]

If we haven't trade 2 and have duufter at 1 2 in Eagles jumpers, and then at 13 we have missed other targets then I am not adverse to pure speculative upside. Massey will know the SA kids well.

I would be happy with Nairn or barker.

Barker will spend most of the year in the rehab group but will likely get a WAFL run in the later part of the year. Then he does a full preseason. I can see a lot of the kids at that pick spending next year in the WAFL anyway.

Barker will be agun but for it would be reaching for BOB for me.
Kid will be better then Barker

 

[bzparkes]

This is more than a question of busts. CDT will be fine. Will have be a 250+ game player and be a walk up start each week eventually? I dont really think so. He'll be fine and could well overshoot where I currently expect him to be. I would think he's looking at about top 12-14 in this class with maybe 130-190 games across 2-3 clubs. He wont be a 'bust' but he wont be a top 3 player in 15 years.

And Sharp could be off a list in 4-5 years time, like a number of recent high draft pick inside mids who were also elite juniors in their position.

 

[SAweagle]

Its like science. It isnt always right, but you make the best decision you can make from the best data you have available. This isnt always going to get you the right answer, because the best data you have isnt always enough, BUT, its more likely to be the right answer than any other process will get you.

To ignore the recruiters because of past errors is folly, because they were probably more right than you would have been at the time.

I'm not suggesting ignoring recruiters, you've missed the point.

I was pushing back on the suggestion that because recruiters universally agree on a certain prospect it's as good as a sure thing.

 

[TheBudgies]

And Sharp could be off a list in 4-5 years time, like a number of recent high draft pick inside mids who were also elite juniors in their position.

Correct, Both Daicos brothers could run into eachother in one of their TicTok dances and do career ending leg injuries. I don't know what's going to happen, I'm just voicing an opinion (This is why I said "I dont really think so" as opposed to "I'm a wizard and can see the future" it's subtle but those arent the same).

I think Sharp will captain a club and will play 200-250+ games and I think he will have a better career than CDT. I don't think Sharp will be the best player to ever play the game or that he would be the best player on our list at any point really but I think he would be very good for us, especially now when he can help us be much better next year. Sharps year has been pretty close to flawless whereas CDT hasn't been amazing. I would prefer Sharp but I dont think we'll get him and that I think will hurt us in the long run.

 

[plays tall 1]

Yes, drafting is an inexact science as is player development. That doesn’t change the fact that if a guy can’t jump, kick straight or catch the ball he’s not getting nearly universally rated at the very pointy end of draft prospects.

Elijah Tsatas went pretty high. He was widely regarded as a top 5 pick in the media and seemingly clubland. By your logic, if he’s universally highly rated, then he mustn’t have significant shortcomings in his game.

 

[TheBudgies]

I'm not suggesting ignoring recruiters, you've missed the point.

I was pushing back on the suggestion that because recruiters universally agree on a certain prospect it's as good as a sure thing.

It's a garbage form of argument. Its the appeal to authority fallacy.

 

[Barrybran]

And Sharp could be off a list in 4-5 years time, like a number of recent high draft pick inside mids who were also elite juniors in their position.

Sharp has arguably the highest floor of this draft class

 

[kokedoodledoo]

Is Cal’s mock draft tomorrow?

 

[eaglevision]

Sharp has arguably the highest floor of this draft class

Arguably? I’d go as far as to say irrefutably. His ceiling is the concern with pick 1 or 2.

 

[SAweagle]

It's a garbage form of argument. Its the appeal to authority fallacy.

Agreed, and not a shred of evidence to suggest recruiters now have a better success rate than the past

 

[Wedgetailed Westerner]

If we draft Greeves with our third pick I will be having a random260 level melt

If Greeves last to Hawks pick and they dont take him. To me, that says it all

 

[Spooky17]

Is Cal’s mock draft tomorrow?

First one I think. Always does a ‘late mail’ version the night before the draft or the day of.

 

[bzparkes]

Sharp has arguably the highest floor of this draft class

You don't pick high floor players with pick 2, you pick who you think has the highest ceiling.

That's how blokes like Andrew McGrath end up going pick 1 and McCluggage goes later.

 

[Shueygod]

Correct, Both Daicos brothers could run into eachother in one of their TicTok dances and do career ending leg injuries. I don't know what's going to happen, I'm just voicing an opinion (This is why I said "I dont really think so" as opposed to "I'm a wizard and can see the future" it's subtle but those arent the same).

I think Sharp will captain a club and will play 200-250+ games and I think he will have a better career than CDT. I don't think Sharp will be the best player to ever play the game or that he would be the best player on our list at any point really but I think he would be very good for us, especially now when he can help us be much better next year. Sharps year has been pretty close to flawless whereas CDT hasn't been amazing. I would prefer Sharp but I dont think we'll get him and that I think will hurt us in the long run.

I know Sharp won’t help us be much better next year, this rhetoric is the furthest thing from reality.

There’s not an inside mid like him that has impacted immediately across a season without breaking down.

 

[Shueygod]

Arguably? I’d go as far as to say irrefutably. His ceiling is the concern with pick 1 or 2.

Jhye Clark would have been considered to have one of the highest floors in his draft year.

I agree it looks likely Sharp could at worst be a role playing inside mid but I don’t think it’s irrefutable he has the lowest floor as it appears to be harder to make it as an inside mid in comparison to the versatile types.

I’d be more confident in Patterson/Uwland/Duursma/Cumming becoming B graders.

 

[eaglevision]

Jhye Clark would have been considered to have one of the highest floors in his draft year.

I agree it looks likely Sharp could at worst be a role playing inside mid but I don’t think it’s irrefutable he has the lowest floor as it appears to be harder to make it as an inside mid in comparison to the versatile types.

I’d be more confident in Patterson/Uwland/Duursma/Cumming becoming B graders.

Not sure I’d share that view on Clark but his output has certainly been disappointing to date.

If I was to put my house on it I’d say Dyson plays more games than all those you’ve listed, although their ceilings are higher.

 

[Byron_Clanger]

AFL Draft: Foster roots, improvement, 2026 expectations: Duursma ready for next chapter

His local town has provided Duursma with an ideal launchpad into the AFL.

www.zerohanger.com

Duursma has been a regular at Thursday night training sessions, with Gippsland Power training together only once per week due to geographic difficulties, and he's often on the barbecue or running errands at training or on match day.

“He'll give the boots to people at the footy club and sometimes they'll be kids from low socio-economic backgrounds who just want boots to play let alone him giving it to them, so those things stay with you, but it's just part of who 'Lemma' is.”

Sounds like we're drafting an adult as well as a highly rated player. A welcome change.