Recruiting Draft Watch 2021

[eDPS]

eDPS's 2021 Draft Rankings

Lore's 2021 Provisional Draft Order
Any issues with it please tag Lore in this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2021-provisional-draft-order.1251001/

 

[faible]

We need a sarcasm font.

Hit outs are more important to some teams than others, that one seems to vary by game plan, but the R50s look like a fairly solid trend.

We really do...

I'd imagine R50s are a symptom of other things going on. Almost an inverse relationship with inside 50 differential.

 

[Lore]

We really do...

I'd imagine R50s are a symptom of other things going on. Almost an inverse relationship with inside 50 differential.

Yeah I'd say so. GWS is interesting to look at, they win their clearances and CP but their inside 50s and marks inside 50 are really low. They must be losing control of the ball between the bounce and the forward 50 arc and then get punished for it.

Still break even on goal scoring, so could be the loss of Jeremy Cameron and relying on small forwards to kick all their goals. Also their conversion rate flatters their inside 50 differential haha.

 

[TheGrizz]

It's not hard to make your own from AFL tables data, 'total for' divided by 'total against' for the season; https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2021s.html

Results in something like this;

View attachment 1268051

Shows you how important hit outs are, and rebounds 50s. Good teams don't rely on slingshot footy from defence...

Melbourne and Port Adelaide finishing 1 and 2 on the ladder and having .01 and .02 clearance differentials say it all about the stat.

The correlation with really good teams is obvious - contested possession differential and inside 50's (all 4 top teams were considered 'front half' teams that forces repeat inside 50s).
We need midfielders that aren't routinely bludgeoned by the best midfields in big games.

 

[Lore]

Melbourne and Port Adelaide finishing 1 and 2 on the ladder and having .01 and .02 clearance differentials say it all about the stat.

The correlation with really good teams is obvious - contested possession differential and inside 50's (all 4 top teams were considered 'front half' teams that forces repeat inside 50s).
We need midfielders that aren't routinely bludgeoned by the best midfields in big games.

They're sorted by post-finals ladder – the interesting thing to me is that the top 8 are some shade of green pretty much across the board. So you could say the same thing about good teams having a correlation with having more inside 50s, more scoring shots, more marks inside 50 than their opponents, or less clangers.


Here's another one that I find intriguing, using the same data;

• Attack efficiency is on the Y axis, nearer the top is more efficient.
• Defence efficiency along the X axis, nearer the left is more efficient.
• Size of the bubble is the contested possession differential - bigger bubble = higher differential.

The top 8 teams are all in the top left quadrant – they're top 50% for both forward and defence efficiency. They also tend to have bigger bubbles, i.e., top 50% for contested possession differential.

Sort of a meaningless reinterpretation of the same data, I guess, although Melbourne being so far off to the left is notable as an outlier, and it's hard not to conclude North are tanking given where they are in the bottom right relative to everyone else.

What is more interesting is when you colour code the same chart according to teams Essendon was flogged by (dark red) through to teams Essendon flogged (dark green). Margins are in brackets, and for teams that we played twice, e.g. GWS, it's an average of the margin across both games. I used intervals of 18 (3 goals) to determine the shade of green/red.



The size of the bubble does not appear to make much difference by itself. We have beaten teams who have been better at the contest, such as Fremantle, West Coast, Collingwood, Adelaide, and the Western Bulldogs. We have also beaten teams who are better defensively, such as GC, Hawthorn, Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs. We are already one of the best teams for attacking efficiency, so by itself that's not making a lot of difference.

But it's the combination of a better defensive team who is also better at the contest that seems to make the difference, in that they're neutralising our attack and we can't win it back in the contest either. In the sense of this chart, the only outlier is beating the Western Bulldogs, while the Geelong, Port and Brisbane games need to be studied more closely for why they fell apart and come up with strategies to deal with that next year.

That said, I do wonder if the data is skewed. For example, if you got to flog North and Gold Coast twice each? Does that artificially inflate your contested possessions etc? Like is a contested possession against North worth the same as a contested possession against Geelong?


n.b. it reads down. Melbourne beat all those teams, so it's green etc.

 

[Keystone agony]

No way is a CP win against North the same as a CP win against Geelong but every team can have their off days

Thats why finals are mostly so important in comparison. Teams dont really have off days, theyre either simply not good enough or they are.

By off days i mean havnt come to play, content with recent work

 

[ant555]

Gold Coast had it first, if we were going to do a deal for it, it should have been with them

We where not interested in taking Brodie for $400k plus pick 19 for future picks. GC needed to dump a player and where not interested in players or picks this year. It was never going to happen.

 

[boncer34]

We where not interested in taking Brodie for $400k plus pick 19 for future picks. GC needed to dump a player and where not interested in players or picks this year. It was never going to happen.

I think his point is we should have been interested

 

[ant555]

I think his point is we should have been interested

I think my point is we should not be interested.

 

[boncer34]

I think my point is we should not be interested.

Oh coz it read more like you were just saying what happened.

 

[Ants]

It seems odd to me that we're looking to increase this years draft hand but didn't try and do the trade for pick 19 that Freo did by taking on Brodie.

Because Brodie wanted to go to Freo.

 

[boncer34]

Because Brodie wanted to go to Freo.

Thankfully

 

[Ants]

What's the heck is the 'stoppage' stat?
It's amazing how easily people get lulled by flakey numbers and thinks that's evidence enough that our need of bigger midfielders are misguided.

The important stat is contested possession differential. Do you know the 4 best teams in the comp for that stat?
1. Geelong
2. Melbourne
3. Western Bulldogs
4. Port Adelaide
-------------------------------
13. Essendon
‐------------------------------
17. Gold Coast
18. North Melbourne

So it just so happen that the 4 teams that made prelims were the 4th best contested possession differential teams in the comp. Meanwhile we dont even rate top 8, and the two worst teams in the league are 17th and 18th in the stat.
So what do all those teams have that we don't? Bigger, deeper midfields. All of them have at least 2x188cm inside players with big builds.

Clearances are a really chaotic stat, in the centre clearance (our strength) it's 3 on 3 and not that contested to begin with. Where we get beat up is in general play around the ball, as bigger teams just bludgeon us (WB in the finals, Geelong earlier in the year, Port in R2).
Even saying all that, where do we rank in total clearances? 10th. Hardly worth writing home about.

Do we need better kicks? Of course. It's like 3pt shooting in basketball, a coach will never complain about having too many guys who can kick well.
But stop using centre clearances as the measure as to why we don't need bigger midfielders, when clearly it is not an adequate correlation with successful midfields.

We need to stop being pushed around in general play and general clearance, and we need bigger bodies to do that.

Footywire and Lore 's table disagree with that article, ranking us 8th in contested possession differential.

AFL Statistics Team Rankings for Season 2021

AFL Statistics Team Rankings for Season 2021.

www.footywire.com

Do you know what else correlates with that stat beyond final ladder position? The maturity of the team. Especially midfielders. For us to finish 8th, with our immature team and about a third of our midfield missing significant chunks was a very good result. IMO, the key is getting those players back, not targeting an inside mid in the draft.

A stoppage stat is the differential on winning a stoppage around the ground, versus winning the centre clearance stoppage. We were 4th in the centre clearances, 10th in stoppages. Funny, you say I should "stop using centre clearances as the measure", when I was the one who raised stoppage clearances. Yes, they are an area we need to improve. Which is what Rutten said in a recent interview. However, I agree with the other thing he said in the interview, which is that its an area that will improve from the current squad. Like getting some of our midfielders back on the park.

Serious question; could Snelling be that Jack Graham type of midfielder?

Ultimate team man, selfless, decent engine. He may not be huge but reading your thoughts, size doesn’t seem the issue, system and structure looks your priority.

Obviously getting multiple team players is ideal but Snelling could be a nice start

I doubt it, although he did do well in the SANFL. Frankly, I don't think Snelling comes near our starting or secondary midfield, so its a bit redundant.

 

[Lore]

Footywire and @Lore 's table disagree with that article, ranking us 8th in contested possession differential.

My table has us 13th for contested possession…

 

[Ants]

My table has us 13th for contested possession…

Oops, read that wrong. But Footywire still agrees with me!

 

[TheGrizz]

Footywire and Lore 's table disagree with that article, ranking us 8th in contested possession differential.

AFL Statistics Team Rankings for Season 2021

AFL Statistics Team Rankings for Season 2021.

www.footywire.com

Do you know what else correlates with that stat beyond final ladder position? The maturity of the team. Especially midfielders. For us to finish 8th, with our immature team and about a third of our midfield missing significant chunks was a very good result. IMO, the key is getting those players back, not targeting an inside mid in the draft.

A stoppage stat is the differential on winning a stoppage around the ground, versus winning the centre clearance stoppage. We were 4th in the centre clearances, 10th in stoppages. Funny, you say I should "stop using centre clearances as the measure", when I was the one who raised stoppage clearances. Yes, they are an area we need to improve. Which is what Rutten said in a recent interview. However, I agree with the other thing he said in the interview, which is that its an area that will improve from the current squad. Like getting some of our midfielders back on the park.


I doubt it, although he did do well in the SANFL. Frankly, I don't think Snelling comes near our starting or secondary midfield, so its a bit redundant.

I suggest you read Lore's chart again. It clearly has us ranked 13th in Contested possession differential...
Edit: it seems you did

But thanks for pointing out what I said. That we are good for centre clearances, which are more to do with agility and strategy, but bottom half of the league for winning clearances around the ground, which are generally more contested possession based.

Zerrett has played 165 games, Parish has played 116, McGrath has played 93, Shiel has played 180 games. How much more experienced does our midfield need to be? What we need is some variety in skillet and physicality, which seems to be what is missing, and Caldwell alone isn't going to provide that by himself

 

[Steve94]

I think his point is we should have been interested

Yeah pretty much if that we were keen to move up the draft order this year, the best option would've most likely been to bring in Brodie.

With what teams might be will to give up for Pick 19 Freo might be able to move back a few spots this year and get back the F2 second that it cost them.

 

[Ants]

For those going gaga about CP differential, in 2017, 2019 and 2020 Tigers were 12th, 16th and 13th.

TheGrizz, given I referenced stoppage clearances before you did, maybe don't act like you said it first. I mean hell, you quoted me and asked what a "stoppage stat" was.

McGrath was injured for half the season, Shiel for longer. Including them in our mature bodies is a little silly. But yes, our midfield is our most developed section of the ground, hence why we did mid-table in CP. If we hadn't had injuries, or the fringe players were more experienced/developed, we'd have naturally done better.

 

[Jonesy10]

Yeah pretty much if that we were keen to move up the draft order this year, the best option would've most likely been to bring in Brodie.

With what teams might be will to give up for Pick 19 Freo might be able to move back a few spots this year and get back the F2 second that it cost them.

Yeah, that might have been our best shot, but it would also have relied on Brodie wanting to come to Essendon. He had rejected earlier advances from us.

 

[boncer34]

Are good teams good because they dominate stats?

Or do they dominate stats because they are good?

 

[Keystone agony]

Think with our best side Caldwell plays the [PLAYERCARD]Jack Graham[/PLAYERCARD] role and Snelling plays the Lambert role

 

[TheGrizz]

For those going gaga about CP differential, in 2017, 2019 and 2020 Tigers were 12th, 16th and 13th.

TheGrizz, given I referenced stoppage clearances before you did, maybe don't act like you said it first. I mean hell, you quoted me and asked what a "stoppage stat" was.

Who said I did? Think you are reading into that a bit much. And your actual original line was

We were mid-table in stoppages, near the top on clearances

So thanks for clarifying that you consider stoppages and clearances to be synonymous, which answers my original question.

McGrath was injured for half the season, Shiel for longer. Including them in our mature bodies is a little silly. But yes, our midfield is our most developed section of the ground, hence why we did mid-table in CP. If we hadn't had injuries, or the fringe players were more experienced/developed, we'd have naturally done better.

McGrath played 15/23 games, so roughly 66% of games and a big enough sample size.
And the reality is that being beaten up around the football has been a problem for years, as evidenced by our last 3 elimination finals. McGrath and Shiel have been part of that midfield in the past 3-5 years, and so expecting them and a very raw Caldwell to turn it around next year without further changes is unreasonable.

Until we get bigger through the midfield, we will continue to get destroyed around the football in finals like games where the game inevitably compresses and become more contested.

Richmond is one of the most elite intercept and pressure teams in living memory. Their mode of play is so different it really is an (albeit incredibly effective) outlier in terms past premiers.
The reality is you need both a contested game and intercept game normally to be elite, and we don't really grade as elite in either outside of centre clearance.

 

[brain taylor]

 

[ant555]

For those going gaga about CP differential, in 2017, 2019 and 2020 Tigers were 12th, 16th and 13th.

TheGrizz, given I referenced stoppage clearances before you did, maybe don't act like you said it first. I mean hell, you quoted me and asked what a "stoppage stat" was.

McGrath was injured for half the season, Shiel for longer. Including them in our mature bodies is a little silly. But yes, our midfield is our most developed section of the ground, hence why we did mid-table in CP. If we hadn't had injuries, or the fringe players were more experienced/developed, we'd have naturally done better.

That is okay if that is how you play. Their premiership sides where based of running power and pressure. Pressure to create turnover and running to continue that pressure all day. They where low on contested possession mainly because they almost conceded the center clearance. They did have variety in the midfield.
What they did not have is a bunch of skinny blokes in various positions or being used in the midfield. Solid bodies that can run all day.

Just a question. When truck comes out and says our contested possession needs to be better after the season has finished are we not to believe him ?

How good are we at contested marking around the ground ?

I would have no issue with Sinn at our first pick as he also fills a need but at some stage we need to draft a tall midfielder to add some variety to the midfield depth. I am not talking converted wingers or half forwards that maybe able to play midfield . Actual midfielders.

 

[faible]

That is okay if that is how you play. Their premiership sides where based of running power and pressure. Pressure to create turnover and running to continue that pressure all day. They where low on contested possession mainly because they almost conceded the center clearance. They did have variety in the midfield.
What they did not have is a bunch of skinny blokes in various positions or being used in the midfield. Solid bodies that can run all day.

Just a question. When truck comes out and says our contested possession needs to be better after the season has finished are we not to believe him ?

How good are we at contested marking around the ground ?

I would have no issue with Sinn at our first pick as he also fills a need but at some stage we need to draft a tall midfielder to add some variety to the midfield depth. I am not talking converted wingers or half forwards that maybe able to play midfield . Actual midfielders.

I like my midfielders solely between 178 and 182cm tall THANK YOU

 

[Milanista28]

I like my midfielders solely between 178 and 182cm tall THANK YOU

A Sonsie man I take it?