Draft whispers, rumours & scuttlebut

[Hellgood]

Kieran Collins WILL be gone by Hawthorns pick 15. More than likely before hand.. Interviewed numerous times by the clubs in that 10 - 15 range this week.

Yeah, look he MIGHT, but suggesting that he WILL just because he's been interviewed is ludicrous.

 

[EB&W Pieman]

But SURELY if they "over bid" Syd/GWS/Bri whoever, let them waste their pick 3 on said player. I doubt Dees are going to use pick 3 on a player they don't REALLY want!?

And then what would the Academy club do with all those picks they have accumulated in the 30s and 40s? It is one disadvantage in he system that you Victorians don't mention - the academy clubs have to declare their hand in advance.
PS I guess a club with an early father/son candidate would have to do the same.

 

[yyou]

Yeah, look he MIGHT, but suggesting that he WILL just because he's been interviewed is ludicrous.

At least that is a rumour & in the spirit of the thread OP

 

[Apex36]

Kieran Collins WILL be gone by Hawthorns pick 15. More than likely before hand.. Interviewed numerous times by the clubs in that 10 - 15 range this week.

In 2013 Jono Marsh was interviewed by numerous clubs in the first round range. He was told by Essendon he would be taken by them at pick 26 if he was still available. He was taken by Collingwood at pick 77.

Almost nothing is certain when it comes to the ND.

 

[BPikkers]

But SURELY if they "over bid" Syd/GWS/Bri whoever, let them waste their pick 3 on said player. I doubt Dees are going to use pick 3 on a player they don't REALLY want!?

I think a couple of those academy kids could easily be pick 3. I suppose if u want them u bid on them, regardless of how unlikely it is that they don't match.

 

[SumTingWong]

In 2013 Jono Marsh was interviewed by numerous clubs in the first round range. He was told by Essendon he would be taken by them at pick 26 if he was still available. He was taken by Collingwood at pick 77.

Almost nothing is certain when it comes to the ND.

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooo, Yoda_ stated he WILL be gone. WILL God damn you!!!

 

[Mitchell19]

And then what would the Academy club do with all those picks they have accumulated in the 30s and 40s? It is one disadvantage in he system that you Victorians don't mention - the academy clubs have to declare their hand in advance.
PS I guess a club with an early father/son candidate would have to do the same.

Isn't the trading to accumulate the high number of mid range picks the loophole that's outside the spirit of the academy bidding system rather than a team merely bidding a pick if they believe he's worth that pick?

Does the club HAVE to show its hand and accumulate those picks to bid on their gun academy/F-S players or is it just being clever (perhaps too clever?) in doing so?

 

[Suma Magic]

Their are pros and cons to downgrading. Academy clubs made informed decisions when deciding to do so. With the discount offered, it's nearly impossible for them to pay more, or what they are worth.

 

[coryne]

Their are pros and cons to downgrading. Academy clubs made informed decisions when deciding to do so. With the discount offered, it's nearly impossible for them to pay more, or what they are worth.

Exactly. Look at the difference between what occurred at the Lions and GWS.


Lions knew that their 1st selection would be before an academy kid would be bided on, so they accumulated later selections and kept #2 live for the ND

At the GWS they identified that their original 1st selection (#8) would be after the 1st bid for one of their academy selections so they downgraded it while accumulating picks for the academy selections.


The process is pretty simple


1) Evaluate where you rate your kid
2) Does your pick fall before or after this selection.
3a) If before then keep selection and trade for later selections to use on academy players
3b) If after then downgrade pick and pick up enough points for academy kids.



It would have been interesting if the Lions had the GWS's academy kids coming through and #2. That would have been a MASSIVE shit storm .......

 

[TwentyNine]

He was on the rise before the broken leg and its taken him some time to get right. Slowly but surley he is getting better. Its like he started as a fresh 18 year old after the leg break.
If gaz was playing for your mob he would easily be in your best 18 and you would be frothing at the mouth over him.

Yeah, he average a whole .3 extra disposals this year compared to last, rising up the ranks.

He would not get a game at North by any standard, or most other finals clubs.

 

[gandaal]

In 2013 Jono Marsh was interviewed by numerous clubs in the first round range. He was told by Essendon he would be taken by them at pick 26 if he was still available. He was taken by Collingwood at pick 77.

Almost nothing is certain when it comes to the ND.

Shouldn't most clubs be in the first round range?

You know, because everyone gets one unless they trade it away or cheat.

So he was interviewed by clubs who hadn't traded away their first pick. Strong evidence you have there that he was being considered for the first round.

 

[Suma Magic]

Exactly. Look at the difference between what occurred at the Lions and GWS.


Lions knew that their 1st selection would be before an academy kid would be bided on, so they accumulated later selections and kept #2 live for the ND

At the GWS they identified that their original 1st selection (#8) would be after the 1st bid for one of their academy selections so they downgraded it while accumulating picks for the academy selections.


The process is pretty simple


1) Evaluate where you rate your kid
2) Does your pick fall before or after this selection.
3a) If before then keep selection and trade for later selections to use on academy players
3b) If after then downgrade pick and pick up enough points for academy kids.



It would have been interesting if the Lions had the GWS's academy kids coming through and #2. That would have been a MASSIVE shit storm .......

I was more making the point that downgrading telegraphs the decision to take players regardless of where bids are made. Clubs knew the downside to this course of action when they decided on it.

 

[coryne]

I was more making the point that downgrading telegraphs the decision to take players regardless of where bids are made. Clubs knew the downside to this course of action when they decided on it.

Yeah I was just expanding on your points regarding how clubs handle the situation.

 

[Charlie Pannam]

Isn't the trading to accumulate the high number of mid range picks the loophole that's outside the spirit of the academy bidding system rather than a team merely bidding a pick if they believe he's worth that pick?

Does the club HAVE to show its hand and accumulate those picks to bid on their gun academy/F-S players or is it just being clever (perhaps too clever?) in doing so?

If a first round pick is bid by a club on a FS/Academy pick then it has to be matched with a first round pick (if the club bidding has a lower draft pick) not a combination of second round picks. Of course every pick is given a point value so it means that other picks/points also come into play hence the frenetic swapping of picks to accumulate points.

 

[Apex36]

Shouldn't most clubs be in the first round range?

You know, because everyone gets one unless they trade it away or cheat.

So he was interviewed by clubs who hadn't traded away their first pick. Strong evidence you have there that he was being considered for the first round.

Absolutely he is likely being considered, the point is though, that due to the unpredictable nature of the draft, even players that clubs make a verbal commitment to can get overlooked if another player is unexpectedly available at their pick.
Ollie Wines was a lock for Melbourne until GWS overlooked Toumpas, Marsh was strongly linked to Fremantle at 18 but they selected Apeness instead. He had a verbal commitment from Essendon they would take him at 26 but they selected Merrett, whom they thought would be gone by that point.

I'm just saying, you can't make a prediction that a player will 100% be gone by a certain pick just because he's had some interviews. The only players in this draft who are certainties at this point are Weitering and Schache (and the academy kids of course).

 

[gandaal]

Absolutely he is likely being considered, the point is though, that due to the unpredictable nature of the draft, even players that clubs make a verbal commitment to can get overlooked if another player is unexpectedly available at their pick.
Ollie Wines was a lock for Melbourne until GWS overlooked Toumpas, Marsh was strongly linked to Fremantle at 18 but they selected Apeness instead. He had a verbal commitment from Essendon they would take him at 26 but they selected Merrett, whom they thought would be gone by that point.

I'm just saying, you can't make a prediction that a player will 100% be gone by a certain pick just because he's had some interviews. The only players in this draft who are certainties at this point are Weitering and Schache (and the academy kids of course).

You're right of course. There's been numerous examples of clubs committing to players predraft only to go a different direction on the day.

 

[D_train]

Rumours:
Bulldogs are considering two absolute bolters at picks 30 & 51 - a ruckman at 30 and a small at 51, both have barely been mentioned on the D&T boards

Dal isn't averse to picking bolters e.g. Webb at 27 last year

Is the ruckman Luke Goetz who has been training with you guys?

 

[Mofra]

Is the ruckman Luke Goetz who has been training with you guys?

No, Kyle Galloway.
18 years old, 206 cm and 105 kg. Played with Murray Bushrangers this year

 

[coryne]

No, Kyle Galloway.
18 years old, 206 cm and 105 kg. Played with Murray Bushrangers this year

206 cm and 105 kg at 18 . Was he training with Essendon over the summer period last year ??? .......

 

[master bate]

And then what would the Academy club do with all those picks they have accumulated in the 30s and 40s? It is one disadvantage in he system that you Victorians don't mention - the academy clubs have to declare their hand in advance.
PS I guess a club with an early father/son candidate would have to do the same.

No one forced them to make all those trades.

Sydney and GWS both did them I think knowing they'd gladly match any bid after pick 3 for Mills/Hopper/Kennedy.

I guess Brisbane had to manipulate things a bit to ensure they had points for Keays and Hipwood, I can't blame them for stockpiling points.

I really think that trade week is where the misuse of the system will come in. On draft night the negatives out weigh the benefits for clubs over bidding. The discount makes it very attractive for clubs to match but clubs will still be kept honest by the threat of a club not matching an over the top bid.

 

[UpTheGuts]

Absolutely he is likely being considered, the point is though, that due to the unpredictable nature of the draft, even players that clubs make a verbal commitment to can get overlooked if another player is unexpectedly available at their pick.
Ollie Wines was a lock for Melbourne until GWS overlooked Toumpas, Marsh was strongly linked to Fremantle at 18 but they selected Apeness instead. He had a verbal commitment from Essendon they would take him at 26 but they selected Merrett, whom they thought would be gone by that point.

I'm just saying, you can't make a prediction that a player will 100% be gone by a certain pick just because he's had some interviews. The only players in this draft who are certainties at this point are Weitering and Schache (and the academy kids of course).

Verbal commitments from Essendon... Not worth the paper they're not written on

Richmond only interviewed Menadue once. Just all depends on who's there, I guess

 

[Apex36]

Verbal commitments from Essendon... Not worth the paper they're not written on

Richmond only interviewed Menadue once. Just all depends on who's there, I guess

As did Collingwood with Grundy. They had a single interview with him, expecting him to go top 5, or top 10 at a minimum. Nek minit, he's a Collingwood player with pick 18.

 

[Big Fresh]

Absolutely he is likely being considered, the point is though, that due to the unpredictable nature of the draft, even players that clubs make a verbal commitment to can get overlooked if another player is unexpectedly available at their pick.
Ollie Wines was a lock for Melbourne until GWS overlooked Toumpas, Marsh was strongly linked to Fremantle at 18 but they selected Apeness instead. He had a verbal commitment from Essendon they would take him at 26 but they selected Merrett, whom they thought would be gone by that point.

I'm just saying, you can't make a prediction that a player will 100% be gone by a certain pick just because he's had some interviews. The only players in this draft who are certainties at this point are Weitering and Schache (and the academy kids of course).

Yep, Essendon also told Trent Dumont they'd take him at 26. And earlier this year Dodoro said they almost picked Rory Lobb. You can't take what the clubs say before the draft seriously.

 

[UpTheGuts]

You can't take what Dodoro says seriously.

EFA

 

[Big Fresh]

EFA

You reckon Essendon's the only club doing it? Righto mate.