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Drafting and Playing Lists

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xplo

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I was having this discussion elsewhere, but thought I'd float the idea here, as it made me feel better.

Obviously there's a lot of understandable angst around the prospect of losing 5 first and second draft selections. Now I'm not about to argue that this is a good thing and it certainly isn't sustainable going forward.

However, the line getting pushed in the media (John Ralph, Robbo etc) is we'll be gutted and become the next basketcase if we don't manage to hold these guys. That's pretty depressing to listen to.

I thought I'd like counter that view and give a little bit of perspective by spotlighting one of this week's Grand Finalists - Fremantle.

Here's a quick breakdown of the Dockers likely to play Saturday and how they got to Freo.

Code:
* Top 30 National Draft
▸ Top 10 National Draft
 
* Ballantyne,Hayden    National Draft 2008, pick 21
  Dawson,Zac            Pre-Season Draft 2011, pick 10
  Pearce,Danyle,        Free agency acquisition  orig. rookie Draft Port
* Fyfe, Nathan          National Draft 2009, pick 20
* Suban, Nick          National Draft 2008, pick 24
  de Boer, Matt        Rookie Draft 2009, pick 19 &
  Walters, Michael      National Draft 2008, pick 58
  Mzungu, Tendai        National Draft 2010, traded by Gold Coast for pick 39
  Crowley,Ryan          National Draft 2002, pick 55 & Rookie Draft 2004, pick 39
* Mundy,David          National Draft 2003, pick 19
▸ McPharlin,Luke        National Draft 1999, pick 10 for Hawthorn.
                      National Draft 2001, traded by Hawthorn for picks 1, 20 & 36
  Barlow,Michael        Rookie Draft 2009, pick 8
                      & National Draft 2010, pick 87 rookie promotion
  Mayne,Chris          National Draft 2007, pick 40
  Neale,Lachie          National Draft 2011, pick 58
▸ Pavlich,Matthew      National Draft 1999, pick 4
  Clarke,Zac            National Draft 2008, pick 37
  Sandilands,Aaron      Rookie Draft 2001, pick 33
▸ Hill,Stephen          National Draft 2008, pick 3
  Spurr,Lee            Rookie Draft 2011, pick 8 &
                        National Draft 2012, pick 93 rookie promotion
  Sutcliffe,Cameron    National Draft 2011, pick 71
  Hannath,Jack          Pre-Season Draft 2012, pick 8
  Silvagni,Alex        Rookie Draft 2009, pick 24
                        & National Draft 2010, pick 109 rookie promotion
  Duffield,Paul        Rookie Draft 2003, pick 10 & Rookie Draft 2005, pick 7
  Johnson,Michael      Pre-Season Draft 2003, pick 8


The bulletpoints:

1). Only 3 top 10 draft picks will play (Pav, Hill & MacPharlin)
2). Only 4 more top 30 draft picks will play (Fyfe, Suban, Mundy & Ballantyne)

Now, granted that Hill and Pav are some of the real cream on that list, and not easily replaced. But consider that our team that went to Geelong also contained three top 10 draft picks (Leuey, Rich & Mayes - who collectively have more miles left on the tank than their Freo counterparts).

For better or worse, most of our most recent list management success stories have come from outside of that top 30.

Case in point.
  • Hanley (International Rookie)
  • Zorko (Gold Coast prelisting)
  • Rockliff (Rookie list)
  • Golby (Rookie list)
  • Justin Clarke (Rookie list)
IMHO, we can and will keep developing as a team EVEN if we loose all 5 kids as long as:

- We need to continue to do well developing those rookie/PSD selections.

- We need to keep Mayes/Paparone/Close

- We need to make the most of our Academy kids in Conway, Freeman, Smith, Tickner etc

Something to consider.
 
I enjoyed reading this. A good analysis of the somewhat random and unpredictable nature of drafting as it applied to Fremantle.

In reality a low draft pick, on average, will be more successful than those taken later but the correlation is not really as strong as some people like to make out.

There is enough unevenness in the rate at which players develop, the quality of coaching, injuries and durability, the drive and determination of the individuals taken later in the draft (aka The Rockliff Effect (pick #5 PSD)) that most players even into the 30's or 40's stand some chance at the time of drafting of becoming a gun.

There are also the unteachable aspects of player development to factor in as well, peripheral awareness, game sense, timing and an indefinable "class" (aka the Simon Black Effect (pick #31)). Some players have these qualities at junior level but athletically aren't as good as others until they have a few years in an AFL system.

Other players have unfashionable speed, size, endurance, technique, "buzz" etc but professional levels of training change all of that and the game sense, skills and courage come to the fore (aka The Harwood Effect (pick #47))

In fact I think we are getting almost too much knowledge and data about draft prospects now and too much analysis and a type of groupthink so that if anything there are now more hidden gems rather than fewer. Everyone invests emotionally in their first pick but the later picks, if they make it, are probably as likely to be the stalwarts of the club and beloved by fans. Some players will be drafted in the 30's or later and comfortably pass many taken much earlier. They just happened to be "data weak" at draft time.

It is one of the good things about draft time - we are investing in potential and that potential is like a diamond mine. The gemstone quality might be most concentrated in a rich seam at the start of the draft order but the best gems of all may be hidden a bit further away and require more digging.

The lesson to be learned from our current issues I think is to choose the best players in terms of physical attributes, skills, game sense AND their attitude to being a Lion in every sense.
 
Needs more love this thread :thumbsu:

Also worth noting of the 43 players listed on the Freo senior list;
  • Less than 50% [21] are list as non-WA
And of these non-WA players ONLY 3have played more than ten 2013 games, they are;
  • Pavlich - 22gms
  • Suban - 16 gms
  • Barlow - 14 gms
 
Needs more love this thread :thumbsu:

Also worth noting of the 43 players listed on the Freo senior list;
  • Less than 50% [21] are list as non-WA
And of these non-WA players ONLY 3have played more than ten 2013 games, they are;

  • Pavlich - 22gms
  • Suban - 16 gms
  • Barlow - 14 gms

Thought Mundy was Vic? Did he play less than 10 ?

But gee, some good arguments for that retention allowance there.
 

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great analysis there... Freo have been known for their smart recruiting with the likes of Sandilands from many years ago but overalll great list building there.

You inspired me to havea look and even in the below you get 50% of the top 10 in the brownlow as non top 10 picks. and 50% of the AA team as non top 10 picks.

some of it is good recruiting (like us getting Rocky) others luck (Father/sons) and others working the system (Jack NSW scholarship)

Top 10 in the Brownlow
Ablett - Father/Son (draft pick irrelevent)
Selwood - 7
Swan - 51
Dangerfield - 10
Hannerberry -30
Pendlebury -5
Rockliff - PSD
Cotchin - 2
Jack - Rookie (NSW zone?)

All Aussie Team

THE 2013 ALL-AUSTRALIAN TEAM:
FB: Corey Enright (47 - Geelong), Scott Thompson (37 - North Melbourne), Michael Johnson (PSD - Fremantle) HB: Jarrad McVeigh (5 - Sydney) Harry Taylor (17 (Mature) - Geelong Cats) Sam Mitchell (Rookie - Hawthorn)
C: Ryan Griffen (3 - Western Bulldogs) Joel Selwood (C) (7 - Geelong) Scott Pendlebury (5 - Collingwood)
HF: Patrick Dangerfield (10 - Adelaide Crows) Travis Cloke (father/son - Collingwood) Kieren Jack (Rookie - Sydney Swans)
FF:Jarryd Roughead (2 - Hawthorn) Jeremy Cameron (Pre selected - GWS Giants) Chad Wingard (6 - Port Adelaide)
R: Will Minson (20 - Western Bulldogs) Dane Swan (51 - ollingwood) Gary Ablett (VC) (father/son - Gold Coast Suns)
I/C BENCH: Travis Boak (5- Port Adelaide) Dan Hannebery (30 - Sydney) Andrew Mackie (7 - Geelong) Jobe Watson (father/son - Essendon)

3 father son
2 rookies
2 pre-season draft
4 picks 30+
9 picks 1-10
1 picks 11-30
1 pre-selected GWS
 
swannys pick 58 but regardless all of this has been an interesting read, freo whilst having made plenty of trading blunders have really drafted wonderfully over the years, and backed mature age recruits too, something we should be doing
 
Thought Mundy was Vic? Did he play less than 10 ?

But gee, some good arguments for that retention allowance there.

Gee I stuffed that - coded goals as games... a big sorry :oops:
Corrected - Non-WA's who have played more than 12 games [less than 50% non WA stands]


Pearce – (Sturt - SA) – 24gms
Crowley – (Calder U18 VIC) – 24
Dawson – (Calder U18 VIC) – 23
Barlow – (Werribee – VIC) – 23
Spurr – (Morningside – QLD) – 22
Suban – (Nth Ballarat U18 - VIC) – 21
Mundy – (Murray U18 VIC) – 21
Sutcliffe – (Wood-West Torrens SA) – 18
Clarke – (Oakleigh U18 VIC) - 16
 
Gee I stuffed that - coded goals as games... a big sorry :oops:
Corrected - Non-WA's who have played more than 12 games [less than 50% non WA stands]


Pearce – (Sturt - SA) – 24gms
Crowley – (Calder U18 VIC) – 24
Dawson – (Calder U18 VIC) – 23
Barlow – (Werribee – VIC) – 23
Spurr – (Morningside – QLD) – 22
Suban – (Nth Ballarat U18 - VIC) – 21
Mundy – (Murray U18 VIC) – 21
Sutcliffe – (Wood-West Torrens SA) – 18
Clarke – (Oakleigh U18 VIC) - 16



Haha, I spent time teasing those numbers into some sort of presentable format with Google spreadsheets and yep, it's so easy to mix-up a column header in a cut and paste.
 

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