Analysis Season 2025 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Tom14]

The big issue isn't necessarily our Jeykll/Hyde efforts, but the disparity between draws at the end of the year. When Geelong is facing the average of the 11th placed team in the six extra games and we're playing the average of 6th, most models are choking on that.

Even a simple weighting where the cumulative result of a double up equated to a single game would be more robust because then the models are using like vs like instead of built-in disproportionality.

I'm sure some of them do weight according to that but it's been a particularly bizarre year.

I do think our Jeykll/Hyde performances are what is hurting us most though, as we didn't take the opportunity to run up the score against the worst teams.

 

[M Malice]

The big issue isn't necessarily our Jeykll/Hyde efforts, but the disparity between draws at the end of the year. When Geelong is facing the average of the 11th placed team in the six extra games and we're playing the average of 6th, most models are choking on that.

Even a simple weighting where the cumulative result of a double up equated to a single game would be more robust because then the models are using like vs like instead of built-in disproportionality.

Yes, I have listened and watched a few footy shows over the last 2 days and a lot have the Cats as flag favourites, can not see it myself.

If we get off to a fast, accurate, high pressure start in the QF I think the Cats wont know what hit them, they have not experienced it much in the latter half of the season.

 

[Tom14]

Good analysis piece on us from the Shinboner - https://theshinboner.com/2025/08/28...alysis-fagan-zorko-hipwood-reigning-premiers/

A couple of excerpts:

Setting the scene

There’s always a query about how reigning premiers front up after the ultimate success. Both the 2022 (Geelong) and 2023 (Collingwood) premiers failed to make finals the following year.

Brisbane also had the issue of figuring out how to replace a retired Joe Daniher, while understanding there’d be a target on their back with 17 teams working to counter their preferred method.

The Daniher conundrum turned out to be mitigated, as much as realistically possible, by the blossoming of Logan Morris. Becoming a proper forward half target in Year 2 – comfortably the most targeted Lion inside 50 over the second half of the season – has allowed Eric Hipwood

30

Eric Hipwood

Age

28

Ht

204cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

2.6

2star

M

3.9

4star

T

1.3

3star

G

1.5

5star

D

11.1

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

2.7

2star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.1

2star

G

1.1

5star

D

10.6

3star

K

8.4

4star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.4

5star

to keep doing his thing, and the third tall to provide ruck relief and a contested presence.

The ball use, if it was possible, has improved even further when on, consistently cutting opponents open with kicks no other teams are either instructed to take, or willing to take.

In amongst all of it, their year has alternated between performances both brilliant and baffling. While challengers have often been dispatched, lesser teams have found unpredicted success.

This doesn’t quite fit the normal profile of a team that’s finished top four. It also doesn’t quite fit the normal profile of a team that’s gone 9-4 against top-nine opposition.

What it does fit is the profile of a team who’s lifted to meet moments as they’ve arrived, rather than consistently playing at a high level.

It’s also instructive for how some areas are better to be looked at through differentials instead of totals. With Brisbane’s ability to slice through teams with uncontested ball, it naturally means they’ll play lower pressure game by the numbers. Hard to pressure a side when they have control most of the time.

If we look at total pressure factor, Brisbane slide all the way down to 10th and it looks sub optimal for a top four team. But as differential compared to their opponents each week, it’s impressive.

How Brisbane beat you​

Not to dismiss Brisbane’s defence, their forward half turnover game which has improved significantly over the last couple of months, or their on-ball unit as a whole. But their point of difference is ball movement and especially kicking.

It’s a joy to watch when up and running, effortlessly switching through any gear from first to fifth, and even more not normally on the gearbox.

Much of it starts from Dayne Zorko

15

Dayne Zorko

Age

36

Ht

175cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.4

5star

K

13.2

5star

HB

8.2

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

6.0

5star

MG

440.5

5star

D

14.0

3star

K

9.0

4star

HB

5.0

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

5.0

5star

MG

291.0

4star

D

16.4

4star

K

9.8

4star

HB

6.6

4star

M

5.2

5star

T

6.6

5star

and his ability to hit kicks that other players on other teams wouldn’t even think of looking at, let alone executing.

There’s a high-risk, high-reward area Brisbane often look to hit just before they move inside 50. It’s the central corridor, roughly the width of the centre square and 60-80 metres from goal.

If we go all the way back to the Round 14, 2024 Notebook, the method is explained:

Hitting this area instantly puts the opposition defence on skates and gives Brisbane so many options. They can shift it wider before going inside 50, they can look for short lead up options, pump it long to minimise any chance of a quick rebound; the choices are plentiful.

Zorko is key to this because his ability to hit the kick provides the cue for teammates to get to the dangerous area. In the hands of nearly everyone else, it’s a lower percentage kick and a turnover in a spot where it’s easy to ping back to the other end.

The overarching theme is control with impetus. Only the very best sides can execute this way, given it’s the thinnest of lines between control with impetus compared to possession that doesn’t get you anywhere.

It allows Brisbane to cover for flaws elsewhere, knowing their ball movement can tend to neutralise slight opposition advantages in different facets, and even put pressure on those advantages.

Think of it this way: when you know the Lions will make the most of their possession, you have to do the same at the very least – or even more – from whatever your slight advantage may be. Otherwise it’s a steep hill to climb.

Opponents know Brisbane’s offensive movement shifts their defence into positions they don’t want to be, which in turn makes it harder to score from turnovers.

Ultimately, humming Brisbane ball movement isn’t a problem the league has come close to solving yet.

There's quite a bit more in the post (which will become publicly available next week if you don't want to pay), all of it interesting. Makes lots of good points about our style of play, some of our deficiencies - and why Hipwood will be a big out against the Cats.

 

[Ironmonger]

Thanks heaps for posting that,Tom14 .

On that very last point about Hipwood, I am a bit worried about how easy it could be for Tom Stewart to roam around our forwardline at will, if he doesn't think he needs to worry about Gallop at all.

Forward-half pressure for us is going to super important, especially if we continue to beat the Cats on territory.

 

[Tom14]

Thanks heaps for posting that,Tom14 .

On that very last point about Hipwood, I am a bit worried about how easy it could be for Tom Stewart to roam around our forwardline at will, if he doesn't think he needs to worry about Gallop at all.

Forward-half pressure for us is going to super important, especially if we continue to beat the Cats on territory.

There's no easy solution either. I'd be scared to just go in with Logan and Day on the off chance that we get a ruck injury but I don't think we can expect anything more from Gallop other than chasing and neutralising a matchup at best.

Stewart has fallen a bit off the cliff this year but he's still someone you can't let control the game.

 

[Elixuh]

Thanks heaps for posting that,Tom14 .

On that very last point about Hipwood, I am a bit worried about how easy it could be for Tom Stewart to roam around our forwardline at will, if he doesn't think he needs to worry about Gallop at all.

Forward-half pressure for us is going to super important, especially if we continue to beat the Cats on territory.

Berry back this week might help Ah Chee go forward on a more lockdown role, whereas he looked to be wing/around stoppages quite a lot against the Hawks.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Regardless of the merit you give to any Champion Data metrics, this is quite compelling:

 

[Saucery]

Why predicting winners in the footy is a lot harder than we think

Predicting who is going to win during each round of the AFL is tough, and even computer algorithms struggle to do better than the luckiest human.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Nathan Barley]

 

[Nathan Barley]

 

[Mr Ripper]

View attachment 2425806

Luke Power was 20y 217d, but that was last century (2000).

 

[M Malice]

17 of the last 24 Grand Finals have included at least one of this years Preliminary Finalists.

Hawks, Lions and Cats have won 4 Flags this century(Pies 2) if one of the 3 win it this year they can legitimately claim to be the team of the 21st Century.

 

[MSB ROYS]

Seem to remember the Lions also winning the 2001 GF..

 

[dlanod]

17 of the last 24 Grand Finals have included at least one of this years Preliminary Finalists.

Call me Nostradamus, but I think at least one will make this year's Grand Final as well!

 

[Nunez]

The midfield feels much more balanced with just one of Lachie and Will in the middle. Lachie is a gun, but only plays the one position and is a very similar proposition to Will Ashcroft. It makes the team more predictable and if Lachie is off (like he was week one of finals), it greatly reduces the flexibility we have available.

Week 1 CBA:



Week 2 CBA:



Dunkley is the anchor while Hugh and Will are our genuine inside mids. Levi is a balanced attacking mid, while Bailey and Rayner are explosive. Together, they combined for the same number of CBAs as Neale, which proved to be a nightmare for the opposition. They were fresh and each added a different style of midfieldee to the mix. The trend continued around the ground and together combined for 9 clearances, which was far greater than the Suns 4-6 mids.

The Pies have a heavy reliance on Daicos, Pendlebury, Long and De Goey in their midfield and their supporting cast drop off considerably after that. If the team can clamp down on Nick, it will go a long way to allowing our midfield 6 to set up the win. A true strength in numbers kind of approach.

 

[seanthelion]

The lions are premiers in 2025!

It was a ruthless final quarter. From 4 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter to 4 minutes to go in the final quarter, we kicked 70 points to 7. This was in direct contrast to most of the season where we seemed to do just enough against the lower ranked teams. This meant our biggest win for the year was only 57 points (vs Fremantle in R23) and our highest score for the year was 122 (GF), and our H&A % was 114.25%. All very low numbers for a premiership winning season.

When was the last time a premiership winning team had numbers this low (excluding 2020 where Richmond's biggest win was 54 points, highest score was 105 and % was around 129%)?

For percentage, we only have to go back to 2019 when Richmond finished the H&A with a percentage of 113.7%. But how far do we have to go back to find the premiership team with a lower highest score and smaller biggest win than the 2025 Lions? I've asked Swamp but he hasn't replied.

I'm willing to guess it is before the 1970s.

 

[Tom14]

The lions are premiers in 2025!

It was a ruthless final quarter. From 4 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter to 4 minutes to go in the final quarter, we kicked 70 points to 7. This was in direct contrast to most of the season where we seemed to do just enough against the lower ranked teams. This meant our biggest win for the year was only 57 points (vs Fremantle in R23) and our highest score for the year was 122 (GF), and our H&A % was 114.25%. All very low numbers for a premiership winning season.

When was the last time a premiership winning team had numbers this low (excluding 2020 where Richmond's biggest win was 54 points, highest score was 105 and % was around 129%)?

For percentage, we only have to go back to 2019 when Richmond finished the H&A with a percentage of 113.7%. But how far do we have to go back to find the premiership team with a lower highest score and smaller biggest win than the 2025 Lions? I've asked Swamp but he hasn't replied.

I'm willing to guess it is before the 1970s.

Amusingly on a couple of advanced team models we jumped up an absurd amount in the last 3 finals - eg on Squiggle our flag this year ended up higher rated than last year, by a reasonable distance because we pumped the Cats.

 

[seanthelion]

The lions are premiers in 2025!

It was a ruthless final quarter. From 4 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter to 4 minutes to go in the final quarter, we kicked 70 points to 7. This was in direct contrast to most of the season where we seemed to do just enough against the lower ranked teams. This meant our biggest win for the year was only 57 points (vs Fremantle in R23) and our highest score for the year was 122 (GF), and our H&A % was 114.25%. All very low numbers for a premiership winning season.

When was the last time a premiership winning team had numbers this low (excluding 2020 where Richmond's biggest win was 54 points, highest score was 105 and % was around 129%)?

For percentage, we only have to go back to 2019 when Richmond finished the H&A with a percentage of 113.7%. But how far do we have to go back to find the premiership team with a lower highest score and smaller biggest win than the 2025 Lions? I've asked Swamp but he hasn't replied.

I'm willing to guess it is before the 1970s.

Amusingly on a couple of advanced team models we jumped up an absurd amount in the last 3 finals - eg on Squiggle our flag this year ended up higher rated than last year, by a reasonable distance because we pumped the Cats.

View attachment 2444590

Found the answers (excl. 2020 of course)!

For lowest highest score: North Melbourne 1975's highest score was also 122, also in the Grand Final. Geelong in 1963 also had a highest score of 122 in round 1. But 1962 Essendon was the last team to have a highest score lower than 122 (118).
For smallest biggest win: The last time a team had a biggest win less than 57 points was Richmond's biggest win in 1973 was 51 points.

 

[Tricky Dicky]

Accumulating 4 points from enough wins in order to finish top 4 is the priority of every contending teams' coach.
Percentage may come in to play if you haven't had enough wins but in importance, is always going to be a distant second to points.

I can't help but compare winning Grand Finals to winning any major title or championship. It's all about the timing of your peak performance for the season. Do enough to 'qualify' by finishing top four, then produce your best.

Peaking too early isn't going to win too many Premierships. Having losses during home and away (or a qualifying final) keeps things real and allows for important lessons to be learnt.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Our last 3 second halves of the season we kicked 29 goals to 10 (7 if you exclude the last few minutes of the GF)

 

[Nunez]

Our last 3 second halves of the season we kicked 29 goals to 10 (7 if you exclude the last few minutes of the GF)

Running out games well for a 'battered, bruised and gassed team' eh. Who'd have thought!!

 

[fugitive]

Yeah and so much for Geelong’s feared “dread time”, we kick 3 goals in the last 3 minutes of Q3 to pretty much seal the GF

Running out games well for a 'battered, bruised and gassed team' eh. Who'd have thought!!

 

[MSB ROYS]

Yeah and so much for Geelong’s feared “dread time”, we kick 3 goals in the last 3 minutes of Q3 to pretty much seal the GF

Agree, over analysing stats between teams that have played different teams at different grounds at different stages of the year is just for generating conversations.
In reality, the only one stat that really matters in a game is the final score (except when we lose but win the expected score ).

 

[fugitive]

To be fair, Hoyne he did predict even before first week of final that “he’d be staggered” if the premiers weren’t decided between us & Geelong, it just happens so that we negated each one of their statistical strength. That’s masterful coaching.

Agree, over analysing stats between teams that have played different teams at different grounds at different stages of the year is just for generating conversations.
In reality, the only one stat that really matters in a game is the final score (except when we lose but win the expected score ).

 

[MSB ROYS]

Very interesting...