Draw difficulty thus far based on opposition form

[Super-Chief]

Just checked Melbourne's results for rounds 1 to 8. From my calculations, our opponents had 27.5 wins, not 24.5. Gold Coast's 3 wins were probably missed.

 

[Firestarter]

so what if the G looks vacant - just as much money to the afl. and there's still room for the really poor games to be at etihad.
I'd rather the G occassionally looking rather vacant than have an unfair competition. Surely the primary concern of a sporting competition is as equitable an opportunity on the field over the season as possible?

But don't you see? An extra 700 random people is where it really matters!

 

[TGFC]

I guess so

But would Sydney be so high because they've lost to teams who are up in the 8 at the moment? Like it kinda makes a snowball effect?

If this was an excel formula, you would have it saying circular reference ☺

 

[telsor]

Got told at the start of the season Richmond had a very tough draw.. but apparently now we've got an easy draw.

BF logic.

Richmond is no good.
therefore any team Richmond beats is no good.
therefore Richmond hasn't beaten anyone good.
therefore Richmond is no good (AKA the initial premise/step 1).

On the off chance Richmond does beat anyone 'good', then <insert excuse here> means it didn't really count.

 

[Port01]

Just checked Melbourne's results for rounds 1 to 8. From my calculations, our opponents had 27.5 wins, not 24.5. Gold Coast's 3 wins were probably missed.

Specifically doesn't count the games against yourself, so the 3 wins missing are the 3 games you lost.

 

[Roovolution]

Carlton don't get to play Carlton

Thats unfair. Confident Carlton would still find a way to lose in that scenario.

 

[Roovolution]

BF logic.

Richmond is no good.
therefore any team Richmond beats is no good.
therefore Richmond hasn't beaten anyone good.
therefore Richmond is no good (AKA the initial premise/step 1).

On the off chance Richmond does beat anyone 'good', then <insert excuse here> means it didn't really count.

Starting to think Richmond posters have a bigger victim mentality than Port (supposedly established 1870).....mind blown.

 

[Grizzly02]

Hi all,

Long time reader (thanks for the entertainment) but very infrequent poster. At this time of year as we try to establish who the better teams are we predictably see many comments questioning the quality of each teams opponents thus far. Frequently, this is based on last years finishing positions which I believe is only a rough guide given form can change so much year to year (week to week for some teams!).

I think a better way to look at it is how many wins your opponents have achieved this year (disregarding your own game with them). Of course this does not take into account the quality of the other teams that your opponents have faced so take this for what it is. I've gone through the top 11 teams only given the likely top 8 will come from them (sorry to Dogs and Freo fans - I lost momentum when I got to 12 and 13 but do think you're still a sneaky chance).

Anyway, results are below with Sydney facing the toughest run so far (opponents have accumluated 36.5 wins) and Melbourne the easiest (24.5 wins).

Sydney 36.5
Geelong 33
West Coast 30.5
Hawthorn 30.5
Nth Melb 28.5
Port Adelaide 28
Richmond 27
GWS 27
Collingwood 26.5
Adelaide 25.5
Melbourne 24.5

cheers

Update after round 9 inclusive of all teams. Current ladder position in brackets

Sydney 44.5 (5th)
Geelong 41 (8th)
West Coast 39.5 (1st)
Richmond 39 (2nd)
Carlton 39 (18th)
Port 38 (6th)
Fremantle 38 (12th)
Nth Melb 36 (7th)
Essendon 36 (14th)
Hawthorn 35.5 (9th)
GWS 35 (11th)
Gold Coast 35 (15th)
Brisbane 34 (17th)
St Kilda 34 (16th)
Adelaide 33.5 (4th)
Bulldogs 31.5 (13th)
Collingwood 30 (10th)
Melbourne 28.5 (3rd)


Swans have still clearly had the most difficult draw to date so are doing quite well in 5th. Only teams they havn't faced from the current top 8 are the Tigers and Dees.

Cats have faced 4/7 of the other top 8 members. Likewise for WC so their top spot has been well earnt.

Tigers have also faced 4/7 from the eight including 3/3 from the top 4.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Dees and Pies have had relatively easy runs to date. The Dees have faced only the Tigers from the top 6 (but also top 8 teams Nth and Gee) so they have a few tests to come yet. I personally think the Dees will be up to the challenge when some more difficult games arrive.

 

[brabs]

Sydney 36.5 to 44
Geelong 33 to 41
Richmond 27 to 39
In one week, doesn’t compute

 

[Grizzly02]

Sydney 36.5 to 44
Geelong 33 to 41
Richmond 27 to 39
In one week, doesn’t compute

It does compute. Its the wins all your opponents have accumulated (minus the wins they had against your own team).

 

[A Swallow]

It does compute. Its the wins all your opponents have accumulated (minus the wins they had against your own team).

Shouldn’t Richmond have only gone up 7 after playing WC?

 

[Grizzly02]

Shouldn’t Richmond have only gone up 7 after playing WC?

It won’t be just the latest opponent that moves the number. Taking Tigers as an example, yes they get 7 after playing WC but they also had 5 of their previous opponents get wins this round. Hence, it would move by 12.

 

[brabs]

It won’t be just the latest opponent that moves the number. Taking Tigers as an example, yes they get 7 after playing WC but they also had 5 of their previous opponents get wins this round. Hence, it would move by 12.

Ahh yes , now I get it duh. My bad

 

[captain blood 17]

All i know is after R9, Richmond has played 5 out of the top 9 teams in the comp thus far. Champion data rated our draw the second hardest in the league. Apparently we have an easy draw. Fun times ahead.

 

[Grizzly02]

Update after round 9 inclusive of all teams. Current ladder position in brackets

Sydney 44.5 (5th)
Geelong 41 (8th)
West Coast 39.5 (1st)
Richmond 39 (2nd)
Carlton 39 (18th)
Port 38 (6th)
Fremantle 38 (12th)
Nth Melb 36 (7th)
Essendon 36 (14th)
Hawthorn 35.5 (9th)
GWS 35 (11th)
Gold Coast 35 (15th)
Brisbane 34 (17th)
St Kilda 34 (16th)
Adelaide 33.5 (4th)
Bulldogs 31.5 (13th)
Collingwood 30 (10th)
Melbourne 28.5 (3rd)


Swans have still clearly had the most difficult draw to date so are doing quite well in 5th. Only teams they havn't faced from the current top 8 are the Tigers and Dees.

Cats have faced 4/7 of the other top 8 members. Likewise for WC so their top spot has been well earnt.

Tigers have also faced 4/7 from the eight including 3/3 from the top 4.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Dees and Pies have had relatively easy runs to date. The Dees have faced only the Tigers from the top 6 (but also top 8 teams Nth and Gee) so they have a few tests to come yet. I personally think the Dees will be up to the challenge when some more difficult games arrive.

Update after Round 10 is as follows. As we work our way through the year, the gap between the teams with the easiest draws and hardest draws should become narrower as teams face more opponents. The obvious exception to that is once the double up games start coming into play (as we know this happens before eveyone has played once) but the bye rounds will skew the ratings too. Port and GC will fall lower in the table largely because they have faced one less opponent at this stage:

Hawthorn 50.5 (10th on ladder)
Carlton 50 (18th)
Sydney 48.5 (4th)
West Coast 47.5 (1st)
Geelong 47 (6th)
Fremantle 47 (13th)
St Kilda 45 (16th)
Richmond 44.5 (2nd)
Essendon 43.5 (12th)
Adelaide 43.5 (7th)
Port 43* (9th)
Nth Melb 43 (5th)
GWS 43 (11th)
Brisbane 43 (17th)
Bulldogs 39.5 (14th)
Melbourne 38.5 (3rd)
Gold Coast 38* (15th)
Collingwood 37 (8th)

* Had a bye


The Hawks now have claims to the toughest run so far. They've already played 7 out of the 8 teams inside the top 8 (Ade the one to come). The poor Blues are the same (7/8) and they round out the set this Friday night against Sydney. Of course, this is a top 8 at a point in time and will keep shuffling around somewhat (e.g Port likely to come in with their game in hand over the next month) so these stats will also move.

Other notables - Sydney has faced 4/7 teams in the top 8 (yet to play Rich, Melb and Coll). WC have played 3/7 (yet to play Melb, Nth, Crows and Coll). Richmond has faced 5/7 teams in the top 8 (yet to play Syd and Gee). Geelong has faced 4/7 (yet to play Rich, Nth and Crows).

At the other end of the scale, Collingwood and Melbourne are the two standouts (finals contenders) with easier runs so far. When looking at their top 8 stats it's not wildly different to the others. Pies have played 3/7 (yet to play WC, Melb, Syd and Nth) Melbourne have played 4/7 (yet to play WC, Syd and Coll). Their ratings are low because they've played many bottom teams already.

 

[Grizzly02]

Update after Round 10 is as follows. As we work our way through the year, the gap between the teams with the easiest draws and hardest draws should become narrower as teams face more opponents. The obvious exception to that is once the double up games start coming into play (as we know this happens before eveyone has played once) but the bye rounds will skew the ratings too. Port and GC will fall lower in the table largely because they have faced one less opponent at this stage:

Hawthorn 50.5 (10th on ladder)
Carlton 50 (18th)
Sydney 48.5 (4th)
West Coast 47.5 (1st)
Geelong 47 (6th)
Fremantle 47 (13th)
St Kilda 45 (16th)
Richmond 44.5 (2nd)
Essendon 43.5 (12th)
Adelaide 43.5 (7th)
Port 43* (9th)
Nth Melb 43 (5th)
GWS 43 (11th)
Brisbane 43 (17th)
Bulldogs 39.5 (14th)
Melbourne 38.5 (3rd)
Gold Coast 38* (15th)
Collingwood 37 (8th)

* Had a bye


The Hawks now have claims to the toughest run so far. They've already played 7 out of the 8 teams inside the top 8 (Ade the one to come). The poor Blues are the same (7/8) and they round out the set this Friday night against Sydney. Of course, this is a top 8 at a point in time and will keep shuffling around somewhat (e.g Port likely to come in with their game in hand over the next month) so these stats will also move.

Other notables - Sydney has faced 4/7 teams in the top 8 (yet to play Rich, Melb and Coll). WC have played 3/7 (yet to play Melb, Nth, Crows and Coll). Richmond has faced 5/7 teams in the top 8 (yet to play Syd and Gee). Geelong has faced 4/7 (yet to play Rich, Nth and Crows).

At the other end of the scale, Collingwood and Melbourne are the two standouts (finals contenders) with easier runs so far. When looking at their top 8 stats it's not wildly different to the others. Pies have played 3/7 (yet to play WC, Melb, Syd and Nth) Melbourne have played 4/7 (yet to play WC, Syd and Coll). Their ratings are low because they've played many bottom teams already.

Update after Round 13 is as follows. Note, we've seen our first double up game this weekend. The opposition wins count twice under that scenario.

Geelong 81* (5th)
St Kilda 80* (16th)
Hawthorn 78.5 (9th)
Richmond 74.5* (1st)
Sydney 74* (3rd)
West Coast 74 (2nd)
Carlton 74 (18th)
Fremantle 74* (12th)
Port 73 (7th)
Adelaide 72* (11th)
Brisbane 68 (17th)
Essendon 66.5 (13th)
Nth Melb 66 (8th)
GWS 65 (10th)
Bulldogs 64.5 (14th)
Collingwood 61 (6th)
Gold Coast 60 (15th)
Melbourne 58.5 (4th)

* bye to come in round 14

At this stage, the Cats have had the tougest run. They've played all the other top 8 teams (in fact all the other top 10 teams) so whilst they'd like to be higher than 5th, it's been a pretty solid effort so far.

The Tigers have now played all except Sydney from the top 8. WC are yet to play the Dees, Pies and Nth though they have played Sydney twice. Sydney are yet to play the Tigers, Dees and Pies though they have played WC twice.

The Hawks are sitting just outside the eight but a look at their run home suggests they are a massive chance for finals. They've already played every team in the top 8 and have just two further games remaining against current top 8 teams.

Port are yet to play the Dees and the Pies from the top 8.

Nth are yet to play WC and the Pies from the top 8.

Collingwood are yet to play WC, Sydney, Port and Nth from the top 8.

Melbourne are yet to play WC, Sydney and Port from the top 8.

 

[gavaniacono]

Starting to think Richmond posters have a bigger victim mentality than Port (supposedly established 1870).....mind blown.

I have never felt victimised, but have felt like shit about my club for close to 3 decades, and haven't fully overcome that feeling yet. Every game for me is an opportunity for further shitness.