Draw difficulty thus far based on opposition form

[Grizzly02]

Hi all,

Long time reader (thanks for the entertainment) but very infrequent poster. At this time of year as we try to establish who the better teams are we predictably see many comments questioning the quality of each teams opponents thus far. Frequently, this is based on last years finishing positions which I believe is only a rough guide given form can change so much year to year (week to week for some teams!).

I think a better way to look at it is how many wins your opponents have achieved this year (disregarding your own game with them). Of course this does not take into account the quality of the other teams that your opponents have faced so take this for what it is. I've gone through the top 11 teams only given the likely top 8 will come from them (sorry to Dogs and Freo fans - I lost momentum when I got to 12 and 13 but do think you're still a sneaky chance).

Anyway, results are below with Sydney facing the toughest run so far (opponents have accumluated 36.5 wins) and Melbourne the easiest (24.5 wins).

Sydney 36.5
Geelong 33
West Coast 30.5
Hawthorn 30.5
Nth Melb 28.5
Port Adelaide 28
Richmond 27
GWS 27
Collingwood 26.5
Adelaide 25.5
Melbourne 24.5

cheers

 

[Frank Gallagher]

Hi all,

Long time reader (thanks for the entertainment) but very infrequent poster. At this time of year as we try to establish who the better teams are we predictably see many comments questioning the quality of each teams opponents thus far. Frequently, this is based on last years finishing positions which I believe is only a rough guide given form can change so much year to year (week to week for some teams!).

I think a better way to look at it is how many wins your opponents have achieved this year (disregarding your own game with them). Of course this does not take into account the quality of the other teams that your opponents have faced so take this for what it is. I've gone through the top 11 teams only given the likely top 8 will come from them (sorry to Dogs and Freo fans - I lost momentum when I got to 12 and 13 but do think you're still a sneaky chance).

Anyway, results are below with Sydney facing the toughest run so far (opponents have accumluated 36.5 wins) and Melbourne the easiest (24.5 wins).

Sydney 36.5
Geelong 33
West Coast 30.5
Hawthorn 30.5
Nth Melb 28.5
Port Adelaide 28
Richmond 27
GWS 27
Collingwood 26.5
Adelaide 25.5
Melbourne 24.5

cheers

Richmond still have a very easy draw.

 

[Frank Gallagher]

Using that formula for the entire comp Richmond become 9th.

 

[radiojake]

I don't really see how this shows anything

it's all about the double ups that each team has

 

[PonsfordMagpie]

Sydney 36.5
Fremantle 34
Brisbane 34
Geelong 33
Essendon 33
West Coast 30.5
Hawthorn 30.5
Gold Coast 30
Carlton 29
Nth Melb 28.5
Port Adelaide 28
St Kilda 27.5
Richmond 27
GWS 27
Collingwood 26.5
Western Bulldogs 26.5
Adelaide 25.5
Melbourne 24.5

 

[donbooger]

I didn't understand what you were saying but I understood that being high on that list is good so I am happy, have a like.

 

[Grizzly02]

I don't really see how this shows anything

it's all about the double ups that each team has

It wasn't intended to show the season draw difficulty - we all know what that looks like in terms of double ups etc. It is just to help idenitfy teams that may be doing better at this stage of the year due to the opponents they've played in the first 8 rounds and vice versa. Anyway, as I said, take it for what it is.

 

[radiojake]

I guess so

But would Sydney be so high because they've lost to teams who are up in the 8 at the moment? Like it kinda makes a snowball effect?

 

[Handsuper47]

Got told at the start of the season Richmond had a very tough draw.. but apparently now we've got an easy draw.

 

[Grizzly02]

I guess so

But would Sydney be so high because they've lost to teams who are up in the 8 at the moment? Like it kinda makes a snowball effect?

Well games that your club are involved in are not included. Otherwise poor teams would look like they’ve had a harder draw than they have. Eg Brisbane has lost 8 games but those 8 wins for their opponents don’t count.

 

[Grizzly02]

Got told at the start of the season Richmond had a very tough draw.. but apparently now we've got an easy draw.

We do have one of the harder draws across the season.

 

[STPer18]

You'd have to say we're going alright taking into account the quality of opponents and the fact we've had just the 3 home games and 5 away to this point.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Carlton don't get to play Carlton

 

[BallaratBulldog]

Most teams arent "easy" reguardless and teams need to be good

For example, Brisbane could have knocked Port, Pies, Suns and Dogs too name a few that people were not expecting a contest despite thier ladder position.

Its an even comp, look at that log jam down the middle.

 

[wowlace]

Got told at the start of the season Richmond had a very tough draw.. but apparently now we've got an easy draw.

You'd think being the reigning premiers that your draw should be relatively easy. You know, seeing as you're the best team in the comp. But keep holding onto that victim card bro.

 

[PhatBoy]

I can see the point of the post.

Before the season the draw difficulty is assessed based on what the opposition sides did last year. Did the teams you play away finish high, who do you double up against, etc.

But that degree of difficulty goes completely out the door if form from the previous season doesn’t stack up or whatever.

So some sides’ draws will change in terms of degree of difficulty and when married up with where that side sits on the ladder gives a good indicator of how everyone is going.

So Melbourne for example, while undoubtedly playing good footy, are yet to be really tested on a regular basis

 

[liz]

You'd have to say we're going alright taking into account the quality of opponents and the fact we've had just the 3 home games and 5 away to this point.

Playing away is an advantage, isn’t it?

 

[smasha]

Got told at the start of the season Richmond had a very tough draw.. but apparently now we've got an easy draw.

Must be because we won some games.

 

[Hobbes]

I don't really see how this shows anything

it's all about the double ups that each team has

Can provide a bit of context to the ladder - a guideline about how your team is really going.

 

[radiojake]

Well games that your club are involved in are not included. Otherwise poor teams would look like they’ve had a harder draw than they have. Eg Brisbane has lost 8 games but those 8 wins for their opponents don’t count.

ah ok fair enough

 

[GoTigers2015]

Richmond still have a very easy draw.

Agreed, we only play teams below us.

 

[Back One Out]

I don't really see how this shows anything

It shows the strength of schedules up to Round 8

It’s just something to keep in mind when looking at the congested ladder with a dozen teams all separated by a couple of wins

 

[DrMike]

We do have one of the harder draws across the season.

Nah

Don't have to play the reigning premiers

 

[Seeds]

Got told at the start of the season Richmond had a very tough draw.. but apparently now we've got an easy draw.

who told you that you had a tough draw?

 

[Farang83150]

Got told at the start of the season Richmond had a very tough draw.. but apparently now we've got an easy draw.

Did you read that on the Richmond board?