DT 2011 Backs Thread

[Crow-mo]

I certainly wont be starting any more than 4 premiums down back. To many quality top scoring backs who are going to become dirt cheap that are all top 10-15 on avg.

what else does your crystal ball tell you?

also your theory about 22 players increasing 15 pts is wrong, because you assume linear and instant progression beginning in round 1.

you need 22 players, all increasing their average by 15 from round 1, every round.

 

[Sergian]

Does the Malceski injury make Rhyce Shaw relevant again? Had a down year in 2010 due mainly to Malceski taking his position off half back and being forced to play forward at times. Kennelly hasn't had a great pre-season either from memory, so there could be plenty of points (ave. 86 in 2009) there to make his.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

what else does your crystal ball tell you?

also your theory about 22 players increasing 15 pts is wrong, because you assume linear and instant progression beginning in round 1.

you need 22 players, all increasing their average by 15 from round 1, every round.

Yep thats what ive been saying, your right.

22 players that improve on avg by 15 points on there price avg. No need for Einstein to work that out.

 

[Chris25]

I don't know what it is about the backs this year, but I just don't see much value there. There are only 3 players between 200-300k that I would consider picking, and even then they are all risky picks.

I'm also not convinced by the rookies like some others. Personally, I don't see how Duigan or Puopolo will fit in into their respective teams. And even if they did play, they'd likely be first out again. I'm happy with the likes of Stanley and Toy on my bench, but wouldn't exactly want to rely on them.

I've played around with a few different structures, but at the moment Bock is my #6 defender.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I think the rookies in the backs are better than any other year, although that may just be the GC factor.

I think the midpricers are of a low depth but the ones that are there are of high quality IMO. Im starting to think about taking 2-3 midprice backs into round 1 with me. Probably can only be 2 max but with the bye situation.

But the thing i hate about the backs is the premiums, everyone is picking the same players. Everyone is picking 5 from the same 6 or 4 from the 5. So there will be no uniqueness in the backs. The game will be won with TRADES of course but in a starting lineup perspective forwards and midfielders will be the key factor. Surprise rucks similar to Leuy could pop up aswell.

 

[Beachy]

I Have a few questions or rather thoughts people might have about the following players:

Eastern Wood (Dogs) $198k - Looks like getting game time, uses the ball well and will be across half back.

Nick Lower (Freo) $92.5K - Started well in NAB and Freo have a habit of playing mature rookies.

Cam Pederson (North) 98.4K - Highly rated in VFL, plays mid sweeping back and I think will get game time at north.

Any thoughts would be appreciated

 

[Spider Klein]

I think the rookies in the backs are better than any other year, although that may just be the GC factor.

I think the midpricers are of a low depth but the ones that are there are of high quality IMO. Im starting to think about taking 2-3 midprice backs into round 1 with me. Probably can only be 2 max but with the bye situation.

But the thing i hate about the backs is the premiums, everyone is picking the same players. Everyone is picking 5 from the same 6 or 4 from the 5. So there will be no uniqueness in the backs. The game will be won with TRADES of course but in a starting lineup perspective forwards and midfielders will be the key factor. Surprise rucks similar to Leuy could pop up aswell.

Agreed Goddard Gibbs Deledio are everywhere. then Grimes, Broughton otten all pop up in lots of backlines

 

[Chris25]

Everyone is picking the same players, because there aren't exactly a great deal of premium defenders. And the midpriced defenders are riskier than the midpriced midfielders or forwards.

The only difference between my back line and the rest being posted, is that I have 6 premiums and Otten. Can't say I really care, because they are obvious picks so I expect the majority will have them.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I dont care, id just prefer the DT game to become much more unique, it isnt going in the right direction. But cant do much about it can we.

I think the midprice backs are better than the midprice forward or equal. Also it must be remembered that the backs have a lower keeper number IMO than a forward and definitly a midfielder. However its very even to the forwards. So when picking a midprice back you have a better chance of finding a keeper than in the mids.

 

[Big Cox 88]

Does the Malceski injury make Rhyce Shaw relevant again? Had a down year in 2010 due mainly to Malceski taking his position off half back and being forced to play forward at times. Kennelly hasn't had a great pre-season either from memory, so there could be plenty of points (ave. 86 in 2009) there to make his.

This is very interesting... He did step up in 2009 when malceski went down. Do any sydney fans have an opinion or is there a younger player likely to fill the role. Rhyce shaw doesnt have great kicking efficiency although he is quick and has a good footy brain.

 

[yogibbear]

I dont care, id just prefer the DT game to become much more unique, it isnt going in the right direction. But cant do much about it can we.

I think the midprice backs are better than the midprice forward or equal. Also it must be remembered that the backs have a lower keeper number IMO than a forward and definitly a midfielder. However its very even to the forwards. So when picking a midprice back you have a better chance of finding a keeper than in the mids.

Reduce the salary cap/change the magic no. Add two more midfield spots. Delete a back and a fwd spot and the competition will be INCREDIBLY different.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Reduce the salary cap/change the magic no. Add two more midfield spots. Delete a back and a fwd spot and the competition will be INCREDIBLY different.

Totally agree

Also increase rookie prices again, even more. Make people pick from midpricers and the game becomes much more interesting.

 

[Jolldo87]

Agree with all of the above. However, for the majority of dream team players who just play the game casually they want to have all the big guns in their sides. This is the target audience for the AFL so the game is aimed at them and not the serious DT nuts.

 

[Blues_FC]

Agree with all of the above. However, for the majority of dream team players who just play the game casually they want to have all the big guns in their sides. This is the target audience for the AFL so the game is aimed at them and not the serious DT nuts.

Agreed.

In any case, it's a level playing field. Everyone is playing with the same constraints. As has been said numerous times before, a good percentage of DT comes down to trading savvy.

Plus, I don't think it really matters whether you change the format of DT. Due to the weatlth of readily available information these days, I think you would still end up with starting teams that are largely the same, regardless of whether there were 6 backs, 8 mids and 6 fwds, etc.

When it comes to starting teams, I really don't think there is any advantage to poring over stats and pre-season form. I've spent probably 6-8 hours a day since December looking at draftees, training reports etc and I still think I could have just rocked up a week before lockout and read through Bigfooty, DTTalk and footytragic articles and come up with the same team. I don't see how this would change if the DT format was changed. You'd still find a bazillion threads about every "smokey" midpricer anyway.

 

[Cake]

Anyone else thinking Gwilt could become a keeper this year?

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Peoples thoughts on Toovey?? Scored really well in the finals late last year and had some solis 80+ scores throughout the season. Can he play a more rebounding role off halfback and improve his scoring.

Just about to step into his 3rd full season at the magpies (best team, thus best scoring) in a row. Plateud at avg of 56 and he could maybe take it to 75?? maybe a little optimistic but i think he has a few things on his side.

 

[Barnzy]

The more people that have Toovey the more chance I have to win. Go right ahead brah.

 

[dee64]

Anyone else thinking Gwilt could become a keeper this year?

If it wasn't for having Goddard and the bye situation, I'd take him. With Gilbert playing in the forward line, and Fisher copping a forward tag, Gwilt and Blake could be good value.

I ended up taking Grundy with Malceski going down, but also considered Rhys Shaw.

 

[Cake]

If it wasn't for having Goddard and the bye situation, I'd take him. With Gilbert playing in the forward line, and Fisher copping a forward tag, Gwilt and Blake could be good value.

I ended up taking Grundy with Malceski going down, but also considered Rhys Shaw.

I'm still getting gwilt, Goddard has dual position so I'm sure i can get 1 person in the backline and 1 person in the midfield to cover them both.

 

[DB10]

if it wasn't for Goddard and the bye I would also be getting Gwilt, I think this is going to be his breakout year scoring-wise and push into the 90s for his average. but I just can't fit him into my team as it currently is without dropping someone important.

his multi-bye is the same as Adcock's thought if you have him and the cash.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Goddard, Gwilt and Adcock in the backline, could be disaster.

 

[Jobe3votes]

What are peoples thoughts on Brady Rawlings ? I am 50/50 on him.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

What are peoples thoughts on Brady Rawlings ? I am 50/50 on him.

Old, cant say his side will improve by too much. Not many non top 8 team players avg over 100?? He is already priced at 93. Only onced avg more than 79 in his career. No thanks.

The only reasons you would pick him is if you think his durability is just that highly needed. Although id prefer to get a Enright instead who you know what you will get and has similar durability brillance. Also Enright has more upside IMO.

 

[samwise]

I'm pretty sure Rawlings was one of the 4 North players who had injury complaints during their last NAB challenge match.

 

[Benno_900]

Old, cant say his side will improve by too much. Not many non top 8 team players avg over 100?? He is already priced at 93. Only onced avg more than 79 in his career. No thanks.

You may be right in avoiding him but what you've written there is all rubbish.

He is 29, not on the decline yet.

Average over 100? We're talking backs here. Also, I wouldn't totally dismiss North as a 'non top 8 team'. Young side that will only improve (finished 9th on % last season missing some key players).

Career high average of his role change under a new coach last season. Will stay in this role this season.

What I will say though is that he hasn't had a great preseason and at his price, there are much safer options.