Draft Watcher eDPS Draft Watch 2018

[briztoon]

North would be more than happy with matching a bid for Thomas with their first. The kids a gun.

That is a poor use of a valuable resource and hardly maximises it's value.

For a start look at the hypothetical trade from Wild Bill in the post below yours, or the one I'm about to propose to Bill.

 

[briztoon]

We should look at something like this with the Crows.

We trade our 1st pick this year 10 and next years 2nd rounder for their 1st round pick in 2019 and their 2nd round pick this year.

They would have 8, 10 & 13 this year to potentially trade up for Lukinsios or Rankine. Would 8 & 10 get pick 1? Very close points wise. 3 in the top 13 in what is meant to be a superdraft would handy.

We get Thomas and keep 1 2nd round pick this year and will have 2 1st round picks next year.

Can you see the Crows finishing lower than this year in 19? Unless they got smashed with injuries again I would be very surprised.

How about the Lions 2018 second round pick and 2019 first round pick, for Norths 2018 first round pick and 2018 second round pick.

 

[eastfreo75]

How about the Lions 2018 second round pick and 2019 first round pick, for Norths 2018 first round pick and 2018 second round pick.

Do you know if the Lions need points for next years draft?

Maybe, Roos give up pick 10 and 2019 third round for the Lions 2019 first round pick?

 

[Wild Bill]

How about the Lions 2018 second round pick and 2019 first round pick, for Norths 2018 first round pick and 2018 second round pick.

I would do that.

 

[briztoon]

Do you know if the Lions need points for next years draft?

Maybe, Roos give up pick 10 and 2019 third round for the Lions 2019 first round pick?

We got a couple of kids in our academy for next years draft, not looking like first round rated talent at this stage though. We will likely need points from the third and fourth round, and maybe mid second round.

North need to get points back this year to help match the bid on Thomas, or they risk losing most of their other picks to help match the bid on Thomas. So they end up with Thomas and then a bunch of kids drafted at the very back end of the draft.

 

[Wild Bill]

We got a couple of kids in our academy for next years draft, not looking like first round rated talent at this stage though. We will likely need points from the third and fourth round, and maybe mid second round.

North need to get points back this year to help match the bid on Thomas, or they risk losing most of their other picks to help match the bid on Thomas. So they end up with Thomas and then a bunch of kids drafted at the very back end of the draft.

Yeah if we don't move on 9 or 10 this year it will be a mistake.

We can get Thomas and have a 1st round pick if we are smart. Hopefully we show some smarts come trade time.

 

[Cleric]

That is a poor use of a valuable resource and hardly maximises it's value.

For a start look at the hypothetical trade from Wild Bill in the post below yours, or the one I'm about to propose to Bill.

They have to be very careful as they dont know where the bid will come, and if they go into deficit their first rounder in 2019 will be effected.

 

[briztoon]

They have to be very careful as they dont know where the bid will come, and if they go into deficit their first rounder in 2019 will be effected.

Have you looked at the points system and what picks and points North currently have?

North don't have to be very careful at all.

With Norths current picks, not including their first, they can match a bid from pick 6 and back. Add pick 20 and they can match a bid at pick 1, and it will not effect their 2019 first rounder. Instead, add pick 26 and they have enough points to match a bid at pick 2 and it won't effect their 2019 first rounder.

Clubs actually have a margin where they can carry a points deficit in to the following years first round, and it actually won't effect their pick. A club could carry a 482 point deficit in to the following year, and if they landed pick 1, it wouldn't effect their draft position. They'd still have pick one.

The further back in the first round you go, the smaller the margin each pick has before a points deficit would move it back. Pick 17 has a margin of 30 points before it gets pushed back to pick 18.

Obviously the main impact would be if you needed points again the following year to match another first round bid before your pick. While the pick may not have been moved back in the draft order, it will have lost some value points wise.


If they got back a pick in the 20 to 25 range, they will have enough points in this years draft to match any bid, because no team is bidding pick 1 on Tarryn Thomas. I'd pretty much bet no team is bidding on Thomas with a top 4 pick, so the earliest outside possible bid is pick 5. And more realistically Blakey gets bid on first, pushing the Thomas bid back another spot, possibly Thomas gets bid on at 8 or 9, one or two pick before Norths current position (after the push back from the Blakey bid and Syd matching).

As mentioned earlier, if Adelaide finishes below North, and Adelaide keep their first pick, they should bid on Thomas purely from strategic view, and North would match.


27 (703), 40 (429), 53 (233), 63 (112)

 

[Cleric]

Have you looked at the points system and what picks and points North currently have?

North don't have to be very careful at all.

With Norths current picks, not including their first, they can match a bid from pick 6 and back. Add pick 20 and they can match a bid at pick 1, and it will not effect their 2019 first rounder. Instead, add pick 26 and they have enough points to match a bid at pick 2 and it won't effect their 2019 first rounder.

Clubs actually have a margin where they can carry a points deficit in to the following years first round, and it actually won't effect their pick. A club could carry a 482 point deficit in to the following year, and if they landed pick 1, it wouldn't effect their draft position. They'd still have pick one.

The further back in the first round you go, the smaller the margin each pick has before a points deficit would move it back. Pick 17 has a margin of 30 points before it gets pushed back to pick 18.

Obviously the main impact would be if you needed points again the following year to match another first round bid before your pick. While the pick may not have been moved back in the draft order, it will have lost some value points wise.


If they got back a pick in the 20 to 25 range, they will have enough points in this years draft to match any bid, because no team is bidding pick 1 on Tarryn Thomas. I'd pretty much bet no team is bidding on Thomas with a top 4 pick, so the earliest outside possible bid is pick 5. And more realistically Blakey gets bid on first, pushing the Thomas bid back another spot, possibly Thomas gets bid on at 8 or 9, one or two pick before Norths current position (after the push back from the Blakey bid and Syd matching).

As mentioned earlier, if Adelaide finishes below North, and Adelaide keep their first pick, they should bid on Thomas purely from strategic view, and North would match.


27 (703), 40 (429), 53 (233), 63 (112)

If they trade out their first for a first next year, its unlikely they get an early second as well, unless they are trading with Richmond.

 

[briztoon]

If they trade out their first for a first next year, its unlikely they get an early second as well, unless they are trading with Richmond.

Did you even read the proposed trade scenarios?

 

[theGav56]

I could see Fremantle bidding on Thomas. He is perfect around the pick, and also they have had great success with Tasmanians. But realistically there doesn't seem much between Hately, Thomas etc. It is also the perfect place for one of the higher ranked kids to slide to.

Briztoon's trade works well in terms of value imo, and gets North some terrific assets as well as paying for Thomas.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

They have to be very careful as they dont know where the bid will come, and if they go into deficit their first rounder in 2019 will be effected.

They do but live trading helps because they can always trade in a 3rd rounder or similar live on draft night if it looks like they need the points.

 

[Fatcat08]

How about the Lions 2018 second round pick and 2019 first round pick, for Norths 2018 first round pick and 2018 second round pick.

I wouldn't be doing that as a lion. We're taking a hit on our second rounder of 6 places to move our pick up a year of best case we finish 10th next season. That's a pretty poor deal for us imo. Our third round this year instead and their second next year coming back rather than this year and I'd consider it. That leaves them still with points this year and gives us something extra.

Also their second runs the risk of being used up if a higher than expected bid comes mcfayden. Our third goes out so well need to make up points later along with our fourth

 

[the rooboy]

I wouldn't be doing that as a lion. We're taking a hit on our second rounder of 6 places to move our pick up a year of best case we finish 10th next season. That's a pretty poor deal for us imo. Our third round this year instead and their second next year coming back rather than this year and I'd consider it. That leaves them still with points this year and gives us something extra.

Also their second runs the risk of being used up if a higher than expected bid comes mcfayden. Our third goes out so well need to make up points later along with our fourth

You realise that you have to give up something it’s a gamble the second rounder is vital for the trade to go through. It’s all about maximising points


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[eastfreo75]

Have you looked at the points system and what picks and points North currently have?

North don't have to be very careful at all.

With Norths current picks, not including their first, they can match a bid from pick 6 and back. Add pick 20 and they can match a bid at pick 1, and it will not effect their 2019 first rounder. Instead, add pick 26 and they have enough points to match a bid at pick 2 and it won't effect their 2019 first rounder.

Clubs actually have a margin where they can carry a points deficit in to the following years first round, and it actually won't effect their pick. A club could carry a 482 point deficit in to the following year, and if they landed pick 1, it wouldn't effect their draft position. They'd still have pick one.

The further back in the first round you go, the smaller the margin each pick has before a points deficit would move it back. Pick 17 has a margin of 30 points before it gets pushed back to pick 18.

Obviously the main impact would be if you needed points again the following year to match another first round bid before your pick. While the pick may not have been moved back in the draft order, it will have lost some value points wise.


If they got back a pick in the 20 to 25 range, they will have enough points in this years draft to match any bid, because no team is bidding pick 1 on Tarryn Thomas. I'd pretty much bet no team is bidding on Thomas with a top 4 pick, so the earliest outside possible bid is pick 5. And more realistically Blakey gets bid on first, pushing the Thomas bid back another spot, possibly Thomas gets bid on at 8 or 9, one or two pick before Norths current position (after the push back from the Blakey bid and Syd matching).

As mentioned earlier, if Adelaide finishes below North, and Adelaide keep their first pick, they should bid on Thomas purely from strategic view, and North would match.


27 (703), 40 (429), 53 (233), 63 (112)

Would you do Fremantle's 2019 first pick for Roos 2018 first round?

 

[briztoon]

Would you do Fremantle's 2019 first pick for Roos 2018 first round?

Asking the wrong person/club.

 

[Pykie]

I think there’s quite a bit to play out in trade week.

I’d say swapping out for 2019 picks would be one of the last options after a few others were exhausted.

I think guys like Setterfield, Jack Martin and Brodie would be pretty high on the “what to do” with the first rounder list and we would have the currency to pry them out.

 

[Newatthis]

Bytel drops to late 20's early 30's. Jones and Williams could also drop. West won't drop past 16. Taylor will stay around where he is.

The Cannons will be disappointed giving they were expecting to finish in the top four.

 

[eDPS]

Updated in the OP but here is my updated top 50

1. Sam Walsh - Geelong Faclons/VIC C
2. Jack Lukosius - Woodville-West Torrens/SA
3. Nick Blakey - UNSW/ALLIES
4. Izak Rankine - West Adelaide/SA
5. Ben King - Sandringham Dragons/VIC M
6. Max King - Sandringham Dragons/VIC M
7. Bailey Smith - Sandringham Dragons/VIC M
8. Connor Rozee - North Adelaide/SA
9. Tarryn Thomas - North Launceston/ALLIES
10. Ian Hill - Perth Demons/WA
11. Rhylee West - Calder Cannons/VIC M
12. Jye Caldwell - Bendigo Pioneers/VIC C
13. Xavier O'Halloran - Western Jets/VIC M
14. Bailey Williams - Dandenong Stingrays/VIC C
15. Jackson Hately - Central District/SA
16. Xavier Duursma - Gippsland Power/VIC C
17. Liam Stocker - Sandringham Dragons/VIC M
18. Riley Collier-Dawkins - Oakleigh Chargers/VIC M
19. Luke Valente - Norwood/SA
20. James Rowbottom - Oakleigh Chargers/VIC M
21. Jack Bytel - Calder Cannons/VIC M
22. Tom Berry - GWV Rebels/VIC C J
23. Isaac Quaynor - Oakleigh Chargers/VIC M
24. Zac Butters - Western Jets/VIC M
25. Curtis Taylor - Calder Cannons/VIC M
26. Sydney Stack - Perth/WA
27. Bailey Scott - Broadbeach Cats/ALLIES
28. Jez McLennan - Central Districts/SA
29. Chayce Jones - Launceston/ALLIES
30. Ed McHenry - Geelong Falcons/VIC C
31. Luke Foley - Subiaco/WA NEW
32. Jordan Clark - Claremont/WA NEW
33. Tom Lewis - Sturt/SA
34. Toby Bedford - Dandenong Stingrays/VIC C
35. Zane Barzen - Murray Bushrangers/VIC C
36. Irving Mosquito - Gippsland Power/VIC C
37. Ely Smith - Murray Bushrangers/VIC C NEW
38. Jacob Koschitzke - Murray Bushrangers/ALLIES
39. Will Kelly - Oakleigh Chargers/VIC M
40. Buku Khamis - Western Jets/VIC M
41. Tom Joyce - East Fremantle/WA
42. Kieren Briggs - Pennant Hills/ALLIES NEW
43. Connor McFadyen - Brisbane Lions Academy/ALLIES
44. Riley Bowman - Dandenong Stingrays/VIC C
45. Fraser Turner - Clarence/ALLIES
46. Tom McKenzie - Northern Knights/VIC M
47. Zac Foot - Dandenong Stingrays/VIC C
48. Angus Hanrahan - Sandringham Dragons/VIC M
49. Oscar Brownless - Geelong Falcons/VIC C
50. Dillon O'Rielly - East Fremantle/WA

 

[theGav56]

Nice. Pretty happy to be having a pick in that 5-7 range. Exciting players all the way through to 15, but the Kings, Smith, Rozee, Thomas and Hill all hit the spot!!!

 

[Mighty_sainter]

Can I ask why hately is so low? Saw him rack up 20 and a goal a few weeks back in the sanfl and looks every bit the modern day star midfielder. His ability to distribute by hand is first class. Extremely mobile and can hit the scoreboard. Aswell as a clearance machine? He's also deceptively quick. I feel as tho if he was playing tac cup and racking up 30 and goals every week he'd be in top 5-10 calculations. He's the second best pure mid behind Walsh imo. Do you see clubs having him in the 15 range or is that personal opinion?

 

[eDPS]

Can I ask why hately is so low? Saw him rack up 20 and a goal a few weeks back in the sanfl and looks every bit the modern day star midfielder. His ability to distribute by hand is first class. Extremely mobile and can hit the scoreboard. Aswell as a clearance machine? He's also deceptively quick. I feel as tho if he was playing tac cup and racking up 30 and goals every week he'd be in top 5-10 calculations. He's the second best pure mid behind Walsh imo. Do you see clubs having him in the 15 range or is that personal opinion?

For me he lacks pure grunt to be a dominant inside mid and lacks the elite foot skills and speed to be an elite outside mid So for me he projects as a solid middle range midfielder at the next level. His size I feel plays a part for his form against senior players where as players ahead of him like Caldwell and Rozee have that extra touch of speed and development that could set them apart.

Could easily slot him at 13 aswell with O’Halloran having a pretty underwhelming game on the weekend.

 

[Pykie]

Twomey mentioned that Thomas has slipped into the mid teens on most recruiters big boards.

Interesting.

 

[eDPS]

Twomey mentioned that Thomas has slipped into the mid teens on most recruiters big boards.

Interesting.

His championships weren't even that bad, a bit of overreaction from many draft watchers imo. He didnt do anything special like he did in the DIV 2 champs but he was still able to win enough of the ball and contribute through the midfield.

 

[Pykie]

His championships weren't even that bad, a bit of overreaction from many draft watchers imo. He didnt do anything special like he did in the DIV 2 champs but he was still able to win enough of the ball and contribute through the midfield.

Especially seeing as his hand injury that he was playing with has meant he's missed the last 5 weeks of the TSL.