here it is http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...es-first-round-prediction-20131120-2xvy6.html
1 GWS: TOM BOYD
(Eastern Ranges, 201cm, 103kg)
A big, powerful forward. Reads the ball well, positions himself well, takes marks and kicks goals. He dominates games.
THE RATIONALE: Boyd is the best player in it, the clear pick of the talls on offer and an absolute professional. Give it a few years and he, Jeremy Cameron and Jon Patton could be extremely hard to contain.
THE COMPLICATION: None. He's been the clear first choice all year. The only thing the Giants could play would be to switch him and Kelly around.
2 GWS: JOSH KELLY
(Sandringham Dragons, 184cm, 75kg).
A run-all-day midfielder, whose composure and smart decision making makes his left foot kicking even more dangerous.
THE RATIONALE: The Giants have been huge fans of Kelly all year – like most clubs. He is arguably the most complete of the available onballers. Will add even more running power to the club's midfield. Like Boyd, is extremely switched on, competitive and determined to make the most of his talent.
THE COMPLICATION: None, unless GWS calls Kelly's name before Boyd.
3 ST KILDA: JACK BILLINGS
(Oakleigh Chargers, 185cm, 76kg)
Clever, dynamic half-forward with a brilliant kick.
THE RATIONALE: At this point, the Saints just need to keep getting good players through the door. Billings is an extremely classy one, with a sharp eye, excellent foot skills and an ability to set the agenda in a game. Should develop into a midfielder before too long.
THE COMPLICATION: The Saints have done plenty of work on Matthew Scharenberg, with James Aish another who has been considered.
4 WESTERN BULLDOGS: MARCUS BONTEMPELLI
(Northern Knights, 194cm, 84kg)
A tall, running half-back who could develop into a super-sized midfielder.
THE RATIONALE: Tall midfielders are all the rage, these days. Bontempelli has shown he can play off back, on a wing and in the forward line. By the end of the season he was doing it in the centre square. He has a big body, excellent vision in traffic and a diligent nature.
THE COMPLICATION: Jack Billings would be hard to pass up, if available. James Aish and Matthew Scharenberg could also be considered.
5 GOLD COAST: KADE KOLODJASHNIJ
(Launceston, 190cm, 79kg)
A bold, running defender who covers the ground smoothly and uses the ball beautifully on his left foot.
THE RATIONALE: The Suns have liked Kolodjashnij for a while. He'll add run and courage to their backline, and in time their midfield. Covers the ground easily, finds the ball and keeps his team moving forward.
THE COMPLICATION: If available, Billings may go here. James Aish is also in the mix.
6 COLLINGWOOD: MATTHEW SCHARENBERG
(Glenelg, 191cm, 88kg)
A true utility whose reading of the play – at half-back particularly – is first class.
THE RATIONALE: This is a tough one, and the Pies would find it hard to pass on James Aish. But Scharenberg would help the Pies' planning for life after Heath Shaw (and even Nick Maxwell, down the track). His size and strength make him a point of difference in this draft and, with pick 10 up its sleeve, the club could easily get its hands on a midfielder too.
THE COMPLICATION: Scharenberg is in the mix for both St Kilda and the Bulldogs, so may be gone. Aish is a huge chance and the Pies and could even grab Christian Salem first. Bontempelli is another contender at this pick, should the Dogs let him through.
7 BRISBANE LIONS: JAMES AISH
(Norwood, 184cm, 79kg)
A smart, poised wingman who thinks a step ahead of everyone else.
THE RATIONALE: That he's simply too good to leave sitting there. Aish has played two years for Norwood in the SANFL and is ready to make the next step. He has vision, composure and a true football brain. If he makes it to this pick he'd be very much a bargain.
THE COMPLICATION: Aish has been considered by the Saints and Bulldogs. He'd be strongly considered by Collingwood too, so may be gone. In that case, expect the Lions to land either Bontempelli or Scharenberg, depending on which player gets through.
8 NORTH MELB: LUKE McDONALD
(Oakleigh Chargers, 189cm, 85kg)
Energetic half-back who'll move into the middle. Enthusiastic, busy player who takes things on.
THE RATIONALE: McDonald was locked in as a father-son pick on the opening day of trading. At pick eight, he's the highest father-son pick ever, but he sits comfortably in the first six to 10 players on talent. Has already done one pre-season with the club and played a couple of excellent finals for Werribee in the VFL.
THE COMPLICATION: None. He's already away on the Roos' pre-season training camp in Utah.
9 MELBOURNE: NATHAN FREEMAN
(Northern Knights, 184cm, 85kg)
A midfielder with explosive pace, who loves to attack and get things moving.
THE RATIONALE: The Dees could do with adding some speed to their midfield group. Freeman is quicker off the mark than most in this draft, it not all of them, and plays with plenty of get up and go.
THE COMPLICATION: Do they take him, or Christian Salem, if both are available? Lewis Taylor is a chance to be picked here, if both those players are gone. Aish would be hard to let by, should he miraculously get this far down the order.
10 COLLINGWOOD: CHRISTIAN SALEM
(Sandringham Dragons, 185cm, 78kg)
A smart, well-balanced and competitive midfielder.
THE RATIONALE: He's a smart-thinking, creative and diligent onballer who would add some speed and skilful delivery to the Collingwood midfield.
THE COMPLICATION: Collingwood may have taken Salem at No.6 pick, which means Aish or Freeman would get through. If the Demons opt for Salem over Freeman at No.9, the Pies could go for Freeman.
11 WEST COAST: DOM SHEED
(Subiaco, 187cm, 83kg)
A determined, persistent midfielder who just keeps getting the ball and pushing himself to work harder.
THE RATIONALE: Sheed has runs on the board, and is one of the proven onballers in this group. He wins the ball, keeps running, and competes from start to finish.
THE COMPLICATION: The Eagles are big fans of Ben Lennon, and he's a chance to go here should someone snap Sheed up.
12 RICHMOND: BEN LENNON
(Northern Knights, 189cm, 80kg)
A natural. A half-forward who demands the ball and makes things happen.
THE RATIONALE: The Tigers are big fans of Lennon. They've made a habit of recruiting players with good foot skills in recent years, and he has some of the best in this group. He'll be a nice fit across half-forward dipping into the midfield, as he builds his endurance.
THE COMPLICATION: He's in the mix for Collingwood, so he may off the board. Salem and Freeman are others in the Tigers' sights, with Zak Jones a rough chance.
13 CARLTON: PATRICK CRIPPS
(East Fremantle, 190cm, 90kg)
Tall midfielder with some of the cleanest stoppage skills in the draft.
THE RATIONALE: The Blues need to replenish their group of young midfielders, and Cripps would help do that. He's excellent in traffic, a clear thinker able to get his hands to the ball first and a player not easily budged off the ball.
THE COMPLICATION: Dom Sheed will appeal, should the Eagles let him through. So would Ben Lennon or Christian Salem, if somehow available. South Australian midfielder Luke Dunstan is also in the mix, with WA forward Cameron McCarthy a chance too.
14 GWS: RORY LOBB
(20, 205cm, 98kg, Swan Districts)
Mobile, athletic ruckman who averaged 25 hitouts a game at WAFL level.
THE RATIONALE: The Giants are huge fans of Lobb, a rapid improver this year. Yes, they've just brought Shane Mumford in, but he won't be around forever and Lobb will need a bit of development time. There's a big chance he won't make it through to their next pick, 29, so they may have to grab him here to make sure of it.
THE COMPLICATION: The Giants have also been strongly linked to midfielder Lewis Taylor. He's a big chance to go here, and Lobb may well make it to their next pick.
15 SYDNEY: ZACH MERRETT
(Sandringham Dragons, 180cm, 77kg)
A clever, crafty player who you love to see delivering the ball into the forward line. Great skills.
THE RATIONALE: He's the next best in line, a smart player who finds ways to get involved and kicks the ball brilliantly, especially into his forwards. With Jed Lamb gone, he could slot in across the half-forward line and wind through the midfield.
THE COMPLICATION: Running defender Tom Cutler, and onballer Zak Jones, are two others who could have their names called here. West Australian Blake Acres is also in the mix.
16 GEELONG: LEWIS TAYLOR
(Geelong Falcons, 175cm, 75kg)
Zippy, zig-zagging midfielder who gets the ball moving and brings energy to his team.
THE RATIONALE: A very talented player, who the Cats probably didn't expect would reach their pick. Taylor is quick, innovative and always on the move and looking for something to do. He'll add a point of difference to their young midfield group, and is dangerous playing forward too.
THE COMPLICATION: He could be gone, with the Giants the biggest chance to grab him. George Hewett is the sort of tall, well-balanced midfielder the Cats like, and they've done plenty of work on midfielders Blake Acres and Zak Jones. Should Cameron McCarthy reach this pick they'd have to take a very long look.
17 FREMANTLE: CAMERON McCARTHY
(South Fremantle, 194cm, 83kg)
An athletic, active key forward who can take a pack mark.
THE RATIONALE: The Dockers have resisted spending early draft picks on key talls in recent years. Their patience will have well and truly paid off should McCarthy make it through to their pick. He's a natural forward who reads the ball well and knows how to take a pack mark.
THE COMPLICATION: McCarthy may be have been chosen, with Geelong the biggest threat. He's also be considered by Collingwood and Brisbane as a top 10 pick. If so the Dockers are likely to grab another local, midfielder Blake Acres, with Lewis Taylor and Zak Jones outside chances too.
18 ST KILDA: LUKE DUNSTAN
(Woodville West Torrens, 184cm, 83kg)
A big-bodied midfielder who is reliable around stoppages. Leader in the making.
THE RATIONALE: Dunstan is a strong, strong-minded midfielder. As a footballer, he's hard to budge at contests and a player who looks after his teammates. Off the field, he would deliver a lot too: if he makes it as a player, he could be a future captain.
THE COMPLICATION: The Saints have been linked to plenty of players at 18 and 19, and will have to wait and see who gets through. They've been linked to Merrett, as well as Billy Hartung and both are big chances to get to the Saints. Blake Acres would have to be looked if available too.
19 ST KILDA: ZAK JONES
(Dandenong Stingrays, 183cm, 76kg)
A competitive, combative midfielder, whose ball use improved sharply this year. Loves beating his man.
THE RATIONALE: This is a tough one. The Saints are keen on Jones' teammate, Billy Hartung, too. But he's a desperately competitive, onballer who knows how to shut down a player and generate plenty of the ball for himself.
THE COMPLICATION: Jones is around the mark for Sydney and Geelong, so many be gone. That would bring Hartung, or even Acres, into play.
20 GOLD COAST: BLAKE ACRES
(West Perth, 190cm, 86kg)
A smooth, smart utility who has looked good at half-forward, half-back or floating through the middle.
THE RATIONALE: The Suns have long been fans, and he'd be another versatile, quick addition to a very classy young midfield group. He could also spend some time playing across either half-forward or off half-back.
THE COMPLICATION: He could be gone, with either Geelong or Fremantle a chance to grab him. If that happens, the Suns could look at Tom Cutler or Jarman Impey. They're also a chance to draft Jake Kolodjashnij, Kade's twin, either here or with their next pick.
1 GWS: TOM BOYD
(Eastern Ranges, 201cm, 103kg)
A big, powerful forward. Reads the ball well, positions himself well, takes marks and kicks goals. He dominates games.
THE RATIONALE: Boyd is the best player in it, the clear pick of the talls on offer and an absolute professional. Give it a few years and he, Jeremy Cameron and Jon Patton could be extremely hard to contain.
THE COMPLICATION: None. He's been the clear first choice all year. The only thing the Giants could play would be to switch him and Kelly around.
2 GWS: JOSH KELLY
(Sandringham Dragons, 184cm, 75kg).
A run-all-day midfielder, whose composure and smart decision making makes his left foot kicking even more dangerous.
THE RATIONALE: The Giants have been huge fans of Kelly all year – like most clubs. He is arguably the most complete of the available onballers. Will add even more running power to the club's midfield. Like Boyd, is extremely switched on, competitive and determined to make the most of his talent.
THE COMPLICATION: None, unless GWS calls Kelly's name before Boyd.
3 ST KILDA: JACK BILLINGS
(Oakleigh Chargers, 185cm, 76kg)
Clever, dynamic half-forward with a brilliant kick.
THE RATIONALE: At this point, the Saints just need to keep getting good players through the door. Billings is an extremely classy one, with a sharp eye, excellent foot skills and an ability to set the agenda in a game. Should develop into a midfielder before too long.
THE COMPLICATION: The Saints have done plenty of work on Matthew Scharenberg, with James Aish another who has been considered.
4 WESTERN BULLDOGS: MARCUS BONTEMPELLI
(Northern Knights, 194cm, 84kg)
A tall, running half-back who could develop into a super-sized midfielder.
THE RATIONALE: Tall midfielders are all the rage, these days. Bontempelli has shown he can play off back, on a wing and in the forward line. By the end of the season he was doing it in the centre square. He has a big body, excellent vision in traffic and a diligent nature.
THE COMPLICATION: Jack Billings would be hard to pass up, if available. James Aish and Matthew Scharenberg could also be considered.
5 GOLD COAST: KADE KOLODJASHNIJ
(Launceston, 190cm, 79kg)
A bold, running defender who covers the ground smoothly and uses the ball beautifully on his left foot.
THE RATIONALE: The Suns have liked Kolodjashnij for a while. He'll add run and courage to their backline, and in time their midfield. Covers the ground easily, finds the ball and keeps his team moving forward.
THE COMPLICATION: If available, Billings may go here. James Aish is also in the mix.
6 COLLINGWOOD: MATTHEW SCHARENBERG
(Glenelg, 191cm, 88kg)
A true utility whose reading of the play – at half-back particularly – is first class.
THE RATIONALE: This is a tough one, and the Pies would find it hard to pass on James Aish. But Scharenberg would help the Pies' planning for life after Heath Shaw (and even Nick Maxwell, down the track). His size and strength make him a point of difference in this draft and, with pick 10 up its sleeve, the club could easily get its hands on a midfielder too.
THE COMPLICATION: Scharenberg is in the mix for both St Kilda and the Bulldogs, so may be gone. Aish is a huge chance and the Pies and could even grab Christian Salem first. Bontempelli is another contender at this pick, should the Dogs let him through.
7 BRISBANE LIONS: JAMES AISH
(Norwood, 184cm, 79kg)
A smart, poised wingman who thinks a step ahead of everyone else.
THE RATIONALE: That he's simply too good to leave sitting there. Aish has played two years for Norwood in the SANFL and is ready to make the next step. He has vision, composure and a true football brain. If he makes it to this pick he'd be very much a bargain.
THE COMPLICATION: Aish has been considered by the Saints and Bulldogs. He'd be strongly considered by Collingwood too, so may be gone. In that case, expect the Lions to land either Bontempelli or Scharenberg, depending on which player gets through.
8 NORTH MELB: LUKE McDONALD
(Oakleigh Chargers, 189cm, 85kg)
Energetic half-back who'll move into the middle. Enthusiastic, busy player who takes things on.
THE RATIONALE: McDonald was locked in as a father-son pick on the opening day of trading. At pick eight, he's the highest father-son pick ever, but he sits comfortably in the first six to 10 players on talent. Has already done one pre-season with the club and played a couple of excellent finals for Werribee in the VFL.
THE COMPLICATION: None. He's already away on the Roos' pre-season training camp in Utah.
9 MELBOURNE: NATHAN FREEMAN
(Northern Knights, 184cm, 85kg)
A midfielder with explosive pace, who loves to attack and get things moving.
THE RATIONALE: The Dees could do with adding some speed to their midfield group. Freeman is quicker off the mark than most in this draft, it not all of them, and plays with plenty of get up and go.
THE COMPLICATION: Do they take him, or Christian Salem, if both are available? Lewis Taylor is a chance to be picked here, if both those players are gone. Aish would be hard to let by, should he miraculously get this far down the order.
10 COLLINGWOOD: CHRISTIAN SALEM
(Sandringham Dragons, 185cm, 78kg)
A smart, well-balanced and competitive midfielder.
THE RATIONALE: He's a smart-thinking, creative and diligent onballer who would add some speed and skilful delivery to the Collingwood midfield.
THE COMPLICATION: Collingwood may have taken Salem at No.6 pick, which means Aish or Freeman would get through. If the Demons opt for Salem over Freeman at No.9, the Pies could go for Freeman.
11 WEST COAST: DOM SHEED
(Subiaco, 187cm, 83kg)
A determined, persistent midfielder who just keeps getting the ball and pushing himself to work harder.
THE RATIONALE: Sheed has runs on the board, and is one of the proven onballers in this group. He wins the ball, keeps running, and competes from start to finish.
THE COMPLICATION: The Eagles are big fans of Ben Lennon, and he's a chance to go here should someone snap Sheed up.
12 RICHMOND: BEN LENNON
(Northern Knights, 189cm, 80kg)
A natural. A half-forward who demands the ball and makes things happen.
THE RATIONALE: The Tigers are big fans of Lennon. They've made a habit of recruiting players with good foot skills in recent years, and he has some of the best in this group. He'll be a nice fit across half-forward dipping into the midfield, as he builds his endurance.
THE COMPLICATION: He's in the mix for Collingwood, so he may off the board. Salem and Freeman are others in the Tigers' sights, with Zak Jones a rough chance.
13 CARLTON: PATRICK CRIPPS
(East Fremantle, 190cm, 90kg)
Tall midfielder with some of the cleanest stoppage skills in the draft.
THE RATIONALE: The Blues need to replenish their group of young midfielders, and Cripps would help do that. He's excellent in traffic, a clear thinker able to get his hands to the ball first and a player not easily budged off the ball.
THE COMPLICATION: Dom Sheed will appeal, should the Eagles let him through. So would Ben Lennon or Christian Salem, if somehow available. South Australian midfielder Luke Dunstan is also in the mix, with WA forward Cameron McCarthy a chance too.
14 GWS: RORY LOBB
(20, 205cm, 98kg, Swan Districts)
Mobile, athletic ruckman who averaged 25 hitouts a game at WAFL level.
THE RATIONALE: The Giants are huge fans of Lobb, a rapid improver this year. Yes, they've just brought Shane Mumford in, but he won't be around forever and Lobb will need a bit of development time. There's a big chance he won't make it through to their next pick, 29, so they may have to grab him here to make sure of it.
THE COMPLICATION: The Giants have also been strongly linked to midfielder Lewis Taylor. He's a big chance to go here, and Lobb may well make it to their next pick.
15 SYDNEY: ZACH MERRETT
(Sandringham Dragons, 180cm, 77kg)
A clever, crafty player who you love to see delivering the ball into the forward line. Great skills.
THE RATIONALE: He's the next best in line, a smart player who finds ways to get involved and kicks the ball brilliantly, especially into his forwards. With Jed Lamb gone, he could slot in across the half-forward line and wind through the midfield.
THE COMPLICATION: Running defender Tom Cutler, and onballer Zak Jones, are two others who could have their names called here. West Australian Blake Acres is also in the mix.
16 GEELONG: LEWIS TAYLOR
(Geelong Falcons, 175cm, 75kg)
Zippy, zig-zagging midfielder who gets the ball moving and brings energy to his team.
THE RATIONALE: A very talented player, who the Cats probably didn't expect would reach their pick. Taylor is quick, innovative and always on the move and looking for something to do. He'll add a point of difference to their young midfield group, and is dangerous playing forward too.
THE COMPLICATION: He could be gone, with the Giants the biggest chance to grab him. George Hewett is the sort of tall, well-balanced midfielder the Cats like, and they've done plenty of work on midfielders Blake Acres and Zak Jones. Should Cameron McCarthy reach this pick they'd have to take a very long look.
17 FREMANTLE: CAMERON McCARTHY
(South Fremantle, 194cm, 83kg)
An athletic, active key forward who can take a pack mark.
THE RATIONALE: The Dockers have resisted spending early draft picks on key talls in recent years. Their patience will have well and truly paid off should McCarthy make it through to their pick. He's a natural forward who reads the ball well and knows how to take a pack mark.
THE COMPLICATION: McCarthy may be have been chosen, with Geelong the biggest threat. He's also be considered by Collingwood and Brisbane as a top 10 pick. If so the Dockers are likely to grab another local, midfielder Blake Acres, with Lewis Taylor and Zak Jones outside chances too.
18 ST KILDA: LUKE DUNSTAN
(Woodville West Torrens, 184cm, 83kg)
A big-bodied midfielder who is reliable around stoppages. Leader in the making.
THE RATIONALE: Dunstan is a strong, strong-minded midfielder. As a footballer, he's hard to budge at contests and a player who looks after his teammates. Off the field, he would deliver a lot too: if he makes it as a player, he could be a future captain.
THE COMPLICATION: The Saints have been linked to plenty of players at 18 and 19, and will have to wait and see who gets through. They've been linked to Merrett, as well as Billy Hartung and both are big chances to get to the Saints. Blake Acres would have to be looked if available too.
19 ST KILDA: ZAK JONES
(Dandenong Stingrays, 183cm, 76kg)
A competitive, combative midfielder, whose ball use improved sharply this year. Loves beating his man.
THE RATIONALE: This is a tough one. The Saints are keen on Jones' teammate, Billy Hartung, too. But he's a desperately competitive, onballer who knows how to shut down a player and generate plenty of the ball for himself.
THE COMPLICATION: Jones is around the mark for Sydney and Geelong, so many be gone. That would bring Hartung, or even Acres, into play.
20 GOLD COAST: BLAKE ACRES
(West Perth, 190cm, 86kg)
A smooth, smart utility who has looked good at half-forward, half-back or floating through the middle.
THE RATIONALE: The Suns have long been fans, and he'd be another versatile, quick addition to a very classy young midfield group. He could also spend some time playing across either half-forward or off half-back.
THE COMPLICATION: He could be gone, with either Geelong or Fremantle a chance to grab him. If that happens, the Suns could look at Tom Cutler or Jarman Impey. They're also a chance to draft Jake Kolodjashnij, Kade's twin, either here or with their next pick.
so this year Geelong will pick up Lewis Taylor
