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ETS is inevitable

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In Australia yesterday, Climate Change Minister Penny Wong gave a speech is which she discussed the claims that the IPCC had misrepresented the science of disaster costs and climate change. She stated:

Another claim is that the IPCC exaggerated economic losses from catastrophes attributed to climate change.

The IPCC has described these claims as “misleading and baseless". The scientist has gone on the record to say his peer-reviewed scientific paper was correctly represented in the IPCC report.

Presumably, the "scientist" that she refers to is Robert Muir-Wood. In the paper that Wong refers to, Muir-Wood and colleagues write:

We find insufficient evidence to claim a statistical relationship between global temperature increase and normalized catastrophe losses.
If Wong thinks that paper suggests a linkage between rising temperatures and catastrophes, then that is pretty good evidence that the IPCC did not in fact accurately represent the paper. It is interesting how the issue is now about how a paper was represented, and not the science of disasters and climate change.

Muir-Wood also confirms that the IPCC intentionally miscited another paper in order to include a graph that he says,

. . . could be misinterpreted and should not have been included in these materials.
Obviously, from Wong's remarks misinterpretation is more than just a possibility. The IPCC also made up stuff about my views and ignored its reviewers who explained that the graph was misleading and should be reviewed.

The bottom line is that there is no scientific evidence linking rising global temperatures to the increasing catastrophe losses around the world. Ironically enough including the paper cited by Wong to suggest the opposite. Despite this fact, and the obvious IPCC misrepresentations on this subject, Australia's Penny Wong concludes:

There may well be dispute about the cost of catastrophes, but the science on the link between these catastrophes and climate change has not been credibly challenged.
Score that as one fully duped policy maker by the IPCC's spin and misdirection.
 
the Y2K bug is a bit like Climate Change, in that while as an IT professional i can see how there were some bugs that cropped up during the Y2K tick over, the kind of bugs that people were talking about (such as planes dropping out of the sky) were pure and unadulterated alarmism. The people pushing it were the kind who would later speak about "peak oil" and the end of "the world as we know it" etc etc.

These same people have now jumped on the "Climate Change will ruin the planet" bandwagon. These people are at their heart anarchists. They are profoundly unhappy with the world and seem to want it to get into trouble, if only to "show everyone" in the broadest sense. They have the personality of an arsonist.


Your basic argument seems to be that climate change believers exhibit a form of Millenarianism - a religious or quasi-religious belief that the world is ending, or at least is in the process of cataclysmic change. You attempt to bring this point home by comparing climate change science to anarchism, which, in some of its variants, exhibits certain characteristics of Millenarianism. You also make your point by connecting climate change to the the whole Y2K phenomena, which absolutely was a form of Millenarianism.

Your argument on both scores is ridiculously limited. There could be nothing more incompatible than anarchism and science. Science is an engagement with the quantitative, anarchism an engagement with the qualitative. Science is connected to the empirical and objective, anarchism to the subjective and sensuous. To compare the two is folly. But to suggest that Scientist's (those involved with the science of climate change included) are 'anarchists' is grossly naive at best and imbecilic at worst. From an epistemological point of view, they are simply chalk and cheese.
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[FONT=&quot]As for your Y2K/climate change analogy, what are you really talking about? IT workers constructed an unquantifiable claim that theoretically speaking this was a real bug. This was never a consensus view within that community. Yet the overwhelming consensus among climate change scientists is that climate change is not just theoretically real, but an observable outcome of quantifiable phenomena. An outcome, more importantly, that stands up to scientific modeling, unlike the guesswork of IT worker’s concerning Y2K. Again, chalk and cheese, and entirely different fields.

[/FONT]FWIW I remember in the eighties the Right having a laugh about environmental scientists predicting that the Murray River was in the process of being damaged by irrigation. Scientists claimed the water table was rising because of irrigation and that salinity problems would be a real issue for the future of the river. “Left wing claptrap screamed the Coalition.” Yet today not even the Coalition would deny that this salinity problem exists, and that farming practices have played a major part. Actually, no sane person would suggest the Murray is not in serious danger.

Exactly the same thing will happen with climate change. You too will find yourself on the losing side of history.




 
As for your Y2K/climate change analogy, what are you really talking about? IT workers constructed an unquantifiable claim that theoretically speaking this was a real bug. This was never a consensus view within that community. Yet the overwhelming consensus among climate change scientists is that climate change is not just theoretically real, but an observable outcome of quantifiable phenomena.

Who claims it is quantifiable?
 

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An overwhelming majority of scientists who specialize in this field who concur that climate change is a reality and that it is the result of human activity.

Even if that is true it does not equate to quantifiable.

What % and how much?

How does one extrapolate from there to a cost benefit analysis?
 
Wong can't help herself.

Just as her own party starts to back off from an ETS and at a stage where scepticism over climate change exaggerations is at its highest comes this.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/na...could-erode-away/story-e6frf7l6-1225832012535

With ocean levels currently rising at 1.6mm a year how can you think you can continually get away with this cr@p. I mean I know Al Gore won a Nobel Prize for it, but the world has started to wake up a fair bit since then.

It just makes her look like an extremist.
 
With ocean levels currently rising at 1.6mm a year

Huh? :confused:

alt_gmsl_seas_rem.jpg
 
Pick any trend period you want hey BP, as long as it suits your cause. Over 100 years it is 1.6mm per year (I just put that in because that is what was quoted in the article and it is a figure I had seen elsewhere before), over your much shorter period you get 3.2mm.

OMFG 3.2MM PER YEAR, LET'S ALL RUN FOR THE HILLS!!!

It is just so bloody laughable.
 
Having just read this http://sites.google.com/site/globalwarmingquestions/sealevel MISLEADING CLAIMS ABOUT SEA LEVEL RISES (I wasn't looking for it, I just happened to come across it), I now even doubt that 3.2mm figure you are quoting. Sounds like some of the old tricks turned to sea levels eh???

Even with 3.2mm, how long before you get to Al Gore's 20 feet? Answer = 1,905 years; hey where is my Nobel Prize???
 
It was in your vested interests to push the Y2K claptrap. .

http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/games/sony-ps3-owners-paralysed-by-y2klike-bug-20100302-peai.html

Looks like the Y2K bug wasnt a load of claptrap after all. Even 10 years later, its still catching big companies on the hop.

Actually, there has been a smaller Y2.01K problem unreported in the media, which has caused the odd spot fire in some businesses, but quickly and quietly mopped up before it caused much damage.
 
The reactionaries inside the Liberal Party kicked an own goal today. They haven't killed the ETS, they've merely deferred it.

Kev has gone awfully quiet on "the greatest moral, economic and social challenge of our time."
 
Kev has gone awfully quiet on "the greatest moral, economic and social challenge of our time."

The global warming issue is again slowly gaining momentum. Just recently, many voices in the resources sector are calling for some certainty on carbon pricing.

But Kevy knows there is no point banging on about GW if the liberals have categorically said they wont pass any sort of ETS, and the Greens wont pass an ETS unless they set a direct path to the stone age.

I'd love Kev to call a double disolution election. The current situation is untenable. I'm sure he's just waiting for a suitable stuff up from the Mad Monk combined with a GW announcements.
 

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I can't see a double dissolution coming.

And I wouldn't mind betting that there is very little talk of Climate Change/ETS coming from Rudd's mouth in the lead up to the next election.
 
The global warming issue is again slowly gaining momentum. Just recently, many voices in the resources sector are calling for some certainty on carbon pricing.

Internationally it isnt. A post Copenhagen deal looks less and less likely. Obama has lost interest domestically and France has backed away from its carbon policies.

Rudd will be going out on a very long limb.
 
Internationally it isnt. A post Copenhagen deal looks less and less likely. Obama has lost interest domestically and France has backed away from its carbon policies.

Rudd will be going out on a very long limb.

Thats funny because Obama was just on TV tonight saying we must put a price on carbon.
 
I can't see a double dissolution coming.

And I wouldn't mind betting that there is very little talk of Climate Change/ETS coming from Rudd's mouth in the lead up to the next election.
No sensible person would take that bet considering the Climategate fallout over the last six months and with more revelations to come.

And on the subject of obama calling for carbon pricing, its what the financial industry wants. The financial lobby pulls the strings and the obama marionette dances to their tune.
 
Thats funny because Obama was just on TV tonight saying we must put a price on carbon.

Obama can say what he likes. Doesn't mean congress will pass it. Noone thinks it will get done any time soon and how it is going to get easier past mid term elections I dont know.

Rudd is hopelessly exposed on the issue.
 
What is your time frame for "inevitable"?

ETS off the agenda until late next term
April 27, 2010

THE Rudd government has shelved its emissions trading scheme for at least three years in a bid to defuse Tony Abbott's "great big new tax" attack in this year's election campaign.

The cabinet's strategic priorities and budget committee has removed the scheme from the four-year forward estimates, a decision that saves $2.5 billion because household and industry compensation would have exceeded the revenue generated by the scheme in its early years.

The Herald understands the government has decided not to start the scheme before 2013 at the earliest, hoping that by then it will have gained support from the Coalition and international efforts to combat climate change will have become clearer.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/ets-off-the-agenda-until-late-next-term-20100426-tnbc.html
 

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What? Wasn't this the greatest moral crisis of our time or something like that?
Climategate exposed the scam. Thank God for whistle blowers leaking files. :cool:
Where's all the criticism from the ALP fanbois and pro-ETS guys?
In a nutshell:

The labourites will stay silent until after the election, the greenies will shout doom and gloom from the pews of their congregations, the libbys will milk this for all it is worth (until told otherwise) and the bankers will continue to scheme and fund propaganda to push for a tax/emissions trading on the key gas for plant life on Earth.
 

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