Is this a two term win?

[QuietB]

If Liberal keeps aiming their campaign in the region below. They will never see a majority government ever again at this rate.


View attachment 2305536

I suspect that box is pretty white as well - and below the box not so much.

 

[kickazz]

Anyone who even pays a passing interest in politics knows that JNP is a self serving right wing nut job.

Yes well not many Australians do.

When I went to vote on the Voice referendum, and saw the NO posters with her face on them, I just thought that was genius, no-one knows who she is, but it would help them vote No.

 

[Caesar]

Does anyone see a scenario where Albo retires ahead of the next election and is replaced by a Chalmers or Clair type?

Albo will be 65 by then and it might be a good way to 'refresh' the leadership and reduce the risk of incumbency fatigue.

Can’t see it

Chalmers has no leverage for a deal right now and Albanese will be too keen to put himself up there with Hawke by winning three in a row.

If there is a Kirribilli Agreement it will be for stepping down after the next election, not before

 

[QuietB]

Can’t see it

Chalmers has no leverage for a deal right now and Albanese will be too keen to put himself up there with Hawke by winning three in a row.

If there is a Kirribilli Agreement it will be for stepping down after the next election, not before

Albanese won a lot of political capital on the weekend. Hopefully he uses it better than Howard and even Morrison did.

 

[Sqotty from office works]

Can’t see it

Chalmers has no leverage for a deal right now and Albanese will be too keen to put himself up there with Hawke by winning three in a row.

If there is a Kirribilli Agreement it will be for stepping down after the next election, not before

Correct.
Albanese and Wong have shared a long term vision and another election win takes them to retooling the Australian economy and making all recent immigrants feel 100% Australian, dream finalised then it's handed over to JC.


The libs need to find middle class women to stand in the nearest gettable seats and rebuild for 2 elections time

 

[The Casey Cat]

Absolutely it is. And if the LNP don't think it will get worse next election if they keep on with the same ignorant nonsense they are kidding themselves. They will go as low as 40% 2pp and 30 seats (and barely exist).

 

[kranky al]

He'll take them under his nose and teach them the way

So they will all be coked up?

 

[Daka]

Nothing is for certain in politics.
But Albanese would have to do something historically bad to lose what he has gained in this election.

He hasn't shown to be an erratic leader.
that's not even taking in the performance of the next opposition leader.

 

[JackOutback]

Politics is more volatile than ever and we have seen some quick turnarounds at a State level, but the size of the win and the lack of talent underneath makes it seem very unlikely at a national level. You just have to look at the three contenders for the leadership to see there is no one there capable of galvanising support. They would do well to try and lure some of the teals like Chaney into the fold but that would require a complete overhaul of their policy platform and their backers refuse to allow it.

 

[Freo Big Fella]

I'll extrapolate from the WA experience to predict what happens in 2028.

The Libs were obliterated in 2021, left with just two lower house members. It was a position they were unable to recover from to be even remotely competitive in 2025.

The same will happen federally in 2028. The Libs are left with a pile of rubble with which to rebuild. No obvious talent to take them forward. They will have a solid loss in 2028, unless Labor turns in a debacle of a performance, which it clearly won't, based on the past 3 years.

This - they need to be looking at what’s happened in WA over the past eight years as exactly what’s waiting for them if they don’t course correct.

Everyone will point to the same political obits written after 07 (Coalition) and 2019 (ALP), but the difference here is the sheer spread of seats they’ve lost.

Even at the height of the Ruddslide, Labor couldn’t imagine getting near Tangney or Hasluck - both are dark red Federally now. This is Howard Battler territory where they can’t get a look in now.

It’s telling Hastie’s initial reaction to the state election result was “forget about the woke seats” - ah yes; the renowned socialist utopias of Riverton, Canning and Applecross.

 

[taurus]

Volatility in politics is a dog of modern times.

However, yes this was a 2 term win.

My guess is that Albo wins the next, wisely leaves after a year. Jim Chalmers is likely but my local member, Jason Clare is a second fav. Jason has the charisma and experience.

If LNP gets their house sorted, 2034 is likely win for them as political cycle like ocean tides, tick for them.

 

[nut]

Volatility in politics is a dog of modern times.

However, yes this was a 2 term win.

My guess is that Albo wins the next, wisely leaves after a year. Jim Chalmers is likely but my local member, Jason Clare is a second fav. Jason has the charisma and experience.

If LNP gets their house sorted, 2034 is likely win for them as political cycle like ocean tides, tick for them.

I think a new political party will form and challenge the centre … maybe the Teals be the foundation for that.

 

[barreness]

This might be reading a little too much into historical narratives but it could be similar to the labor split of '54.
If you view the teals as liberal outcasts, which isn't unfair given the seats they've won.

So the labor split was on communism and religious lines, this one seems on climate and cultural lines(trumpism/woman etc).
A split in the oligarch class which backs the libs, Gina going full trump, Simon what's his name doing the opposite. Might take them a generation of opposition to decide compromise and rein the unions back in

If this is true Albo could do a Menzies. I kinda doubt that but yeh one more term depending on how they go, lib talent is in the gutter

 

[Fire]

Politics these days is far too volitile for the concept of a two term win to be valid.

Chuck in that this was also a repudiation against a ghastly opposition and not overwhelming love for the government. (But when is it ever lol).

Especially with the others vote growing higher... it won't take much to have some massive swings in a lot of seats.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Absolutely I can see this government going two terms, given the ramshackle state of the Libs.

But it would be a huge mistake to think just because the Libs have been so smashed, that right wing power per se has been smashed.

Outside parliament, the right wing is as rich and powerful as ever. (That's pretty much what they're about, after all - increasing the riches and power of the rich and powerful).

Remember the massive and successful ad campaign against the mining tax? The mining industry was prepared to pour many times the amount they did into that campaign.

The right wing have near unlimited pockets.

Not to mention that creepy mob Advance, filthy rich right wingers pretending to be grassroots and getting quite good at it.

The Albanese government is going to face immense right wing opposition in this next term, but this time most of it won't be coming from inside parliament.

 

[Seeds]

True, but nothing lasts forever.

They'll be back, albeit perhaps under a different, reformed guise.

If im a betting person i dont think the liberals will come back. They could. But I think its probably less than 50 percent.

For the libs to come back they either need labor to have an epic disaster or they have to try and win back city seats through a much better approach to climate and energy. I dont think they will do it. All the moderstes liberals are gone. They are now the sky news liberals.

So what is the alternative opposition party? Its either the greens or the teals wake up and start their own party that runs in every seat.

 

[Seeds]

Absolutely I can see this government going two terms, given the ramshackle state of the Libs.

But it would be a huge mistake to think just because the Libs have been so smashed, that right wing power per se has been smashed.

Outside parliament, the right wing is as rich and powerful as ever. (That's pretty much what they're about, after all - increasing the riches and power of the rich and powerful).

Remember the massive and successful ad campaign against the mining tax? The mining industry was prepared to pour many times the amount they did into that campaign.

The right wing have near unlimited pockets.

Not to mention that creepy mob Advance, filthy rich right wingers pretending to be grassroots and getting quite good at it.

The Albanese government is going to face immense right wing opposition in this next term, but this time most of it won't be coming from inside parliament.

i disagree. I think the libs are done. Parties dont hang around for ever.

 

[geoffjennings79]

If Taylor and Price get in as a unity ticket, two terms is a, um, "conservative" estimate...!

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

i disagree. I think the libs are done. Parties dont hang around for ever.

I think you’ve missed my point.

Quite possibly the Libs are done.

But that doesn’t mean the government won’t face the mother of all pushbacks from the right wing. It’s just that from now on, it will be coming from outside parliament.

 

[JackOutback]

The Libs aren't going anywhere, Morrision was a debacle, Dutton was unelectable and they still got 40 seats. Some people's minds simply can't be changed, and brand awareness is a thing. That said, they obviously can't continue down the same path and if they reinvent themselves, they will govern again.

 

[Mofra]

I wouldn't be so sure. The major parties are losing the primary vote to minor parties and it has been a 50+ year trend. ALP will be favourites next election but nothing is guaranteed.

There's a (small) chance that preferences + small changes in voting behaviour drastically change the political landscape.

 

[Mofra]

If Taylor and Price get in as a unity ticket, two terms is a, um, "conservative" estimate...!

They may well get the gig now. Brendan Nelson style.

I'm still backing Hastie to take the reins before the next election.

 

[geoffjennings79]

They may well get the gig now. Brendan Nelson style.

I'm still backing Hastie to take the reins before the next election.

Yeah, me too Mofra, but even as Nelson-type stop-gaps they're certainly not improving Lib polling in the interim.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

The seat count makes it look that way, but the vote still appears weak.
Both majors dropped their primary, if the Libs focus more on rebuilding economic credentials lost under Morrison (never really had, but the appearance was lost) rather than primarily attacking the Greens on social conservative grounds which don't appeal to the under 50s they have a path.
Remember, just four months ago Dutton had it in the bag. Things can turn quickly on one or two moments.

However, odds are the Howard legacy will prevail and the same old "attack the poor and the dark-skinned" and rant against anything mildly small-l liberal on the social front will continue. Which would hand the ALP another term unless they happen go full Morrison crazy. And I think Albo is too boring for that.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

I'll extrapolate from the WA experience to predict what happens in 2028.

The Libs were obliterated in 2021, left with just two lower house members. It was a position they were unable to recover from to be even remotely competitive in 2025.

The same will happen federally in 2028. The Libs are left with a pile of rubble with which to rebuild. No obvious talent to take them forward. They will have a solid loss in 2028, unless Labor turns in a debacle of a performance, which it clearly won't, based on the past 3 years.

Its a bit different, in that the coalition still has viable party rooms (in terms of numbers, not judging on the talent) to cover a range of issues and media. In the last term in WA the Libs couldn't cover portfolios any more than an independent.