FIFA World Cup 2022

[HTPunter]

All those potential price shifts are factored in to the current price and probabilities of outcomes of the lead up games you mention

The key principle when hedging is the same as when punting - do you think the market has the price wrong? If so, ensure your hedge bets exploit the overs.

If you think the market is about right, then there is probably no point in hedging, (as you are just exposing yourself to another round of vig) but if you must because the amount of money at stake is quite high, then whether you do it now or do it tomorrow is no different than simply having a bet/gamble on the outcome of tonight's game.

Surely on a promo where you get $101 on a "should have been sub $12" fave is a fair time to hedge regardless of "vig" on the other side...unless you're a regular $500 a bet punter I can't see how it's possibly a bad idea to hedge when you had such +++EV to start with thanks to promo odds?

 

[kickazz]

Surely on a promo where you get $101 on a "should have been sub $12" fave is a fair time to hedge regardless of "vig" on the other side...unless you're a regular $500 a bet punter I can't see how it's possibly a bad idea to hedge when you had such +++EV to start with thanks to promo odds?

Yeah I recon it is one time when hedging is ok, unless as you say you regularly bet around 500.

I had a small hedge on Croatia just in case as I thought hey were overs.

Good way to bank a bit of Xmas money

 

[_ASP3X]

Can I ask where you find this, I can't seem to find it on the app. Thank you in advance!

Follow this guy and copy this bet. A lot of these promos from Dabble aren’t on the normal betting page but you need to follow certain punters.

 

[_ASP3X]

B365 - On this for $80

 

[ep2018]

B365 - On this for $80

Free money like last night

 

[rank and file]

Like everyone else,expect France winning.

Can't resist a nibble on the Marrakesh express and the Arabian bookmaker spring.

 

[NYRB]

France v Morocco

Each Team 2+ Corners Each Half & Each Team 2+ Shots on Target Each Half @ $71

BYO Sportsbet

FanDuel US Sportsbook have it listed at $61

 

[Hamingja]

Free money like last night

I see it paid out but I wasn't sure watching it. I thought all his shots were deflected and they wouldn't count.

 

[kickazz]

I see it paid out but I wasn't sure watching it. I thought all his shots were deflected and they wouldn't count.

I think with those promo markets they budget for the loss anyway, (which may not even be huge given limits) - getting all anal about it and not paying out is only gonna piss people off, no point really.

 

[Hamingja]

Looking at the stats on some spanish site it looks like the one where he fell over after the Tchouaméni run was counted as a shot on target

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

France had 2 shots on target for 2 goals?

 

[_ASP3X]

2.5u - Mbappe score or assist & France qualify @ $2.00 (SB)

0.25u - Mbappe & Giroud combine for 2+ goals @ $4.00 (Dabble special)

B365 - On this for $80

+3.05u

World Cup 2022: 42-55-8 +17.31u

So some sites don't have Mbappe having a shot on target but I believe Bet365 use whoscored.com and they recorded Mbappe as having 1 SOT so this bet won. As for the bet on SB, Mbappe to score or assist, SB have graded this as a win, I'm assuming for the cross on the second goal, even though this wasn't officially marked as an assist anywhere I can see. I'll take the win.

 

[_ASP3X]

Looking forward to the next 4 weeks of betting the World Cup. I think France wins it all again this year, with Brazil being my second fav. I'm not betting any of the group outcomes this year because most of the odds are just too short and I don't want to multi any of those. It's the world cup, anything can happen. So I've got the following tournament long bets.

Promo Bets:
$5 - France to Win the world cup @ $101 (BetR)
$5 - Brazil to Win the world cup @ $101 (BetR)
$10 - France Win & Mbappe most goals @ $34 (PB)
$10 - Brazil Win & Neymar most goals @ $29 (PB)

Player to score x goals in the tournament (took all these today, but some of these prices are gone now):
2u - Mbappe 3+ goals @ $1.87 (PB)
1u - Mbappe 4+ goals @ $3.10 (PB)
1u - Lewandoski 2+ goals @ $1.90 (TAB)
1u - Gabriel Jesus 1+ goal @ $1.75 (TAB)
1u - Neymar 3+ goals @ $1.72 (SB)
1u - Messi 3+ goals @ $1.72 (SB)
1u - Leroy Sane 1+ goal @ $1.75 (TAB)
2u - De Bruyne 2+ goals @ $2.80 (PB)
1u - Modric 1+ goal @ $1.83 (SB)
1u - Nunez 2+ goals @ $2.90 (PB)
2u - Ronaldo 3+ goals @ $2.63 (SB)
1u - Kane 3+ goals @ $1.80 (PB)

1u - Lautaro Martinez Top scorer from the Serie A @ $5.00 (TAB)
0.25u - Craig Goodwin Top scorer for Australia @ $21 (B365)

Will be betting on most games as well probably, after all the World Cup only comes around every 4 years!

Good Luck all!

-3.19u (with the 2 France bets still live)

World Cup 2022: 47-65-9 +14.12u

Thought it was time to result these tournament long bets so I know where I'm at going into the final. A lot of players I thought would get goals, really didn't perform.

Still have the following 2 bets alive from the above post:
0.05u - France to Win the cup @ $101 (BetR)
0.1u - France Win & Mbappe most goals @ $34 (PB)

Will for sure be betting on the final 2 games, not sure if I'm going to hedge my France bets, I'll see where I'm at after the 3rd place game Sunday morning.

 

[Fabab]

I have mbappe most goals for $134 payout but have been offered cash out $48 cheeky tab barstewards.

 

[NYRB]

Just saw the market for France v Argentina market

Each Team 2+ Corners Each Half & Each Team 2+ Shots on Target Each Half at Sportsbet at $38


Thats pretty poor odds.

Ill give it a miss for now but did notice closer to game time, they increase their odds. (for their semi finals matches)

 

[rank and file]

Just realized Soccer Roulette Theory stresses if you bet on the play-off 3/4 game ante goes up for the final.

Only glitch so far didn't factor in the Harry Kane variable.
Looking forward to the weekend

 

[Angus Young]

Just saw the market for France v Argentina market

Each Team 2+ Corners Each Half & Each Team 2+ Shots on Target Each Half at Sportsbet at $38


Thats pretty poor odds.

Ill give it a miss for now but did notice closer to game time, they increase their odds. (for their semi finals matches)

Sportsbet... lol. They might let you put $2 on it if you are lucky.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Betfair have the 3rd place match fairly even, Croatia $2.40, draw $3.65, Morocco $3.2

For two low-scoring teams, the markets seem to be expecting some goals, with > 4.5 goals paying just $6.60.

 

[targett]

Betfair have the 3rd place match fairly even, Croatia $2.40, draw $3.65, Morocco $3.2

For two low-scoring teams, the markets seem to be expecting some goals, with > 4.5 goals paying just $6.60.

FWIW the last 19 WCs for 3rd place average 4.1 Goals , so typically high scoring

 

[_ASP3X]

3rd place playoff tonight and to be honest I could not give 2 shits about this game but I have bet every game so far so:

1u - Both teams to score @ $1.70

 

[Jugada]

3rd place play off's... what a sport

 

[Suncraze]

Croatia Morocco TGS 02.5 $1.87 MAX

 

[rank and file]

Never thought I'd be betting on a dead rubber,but here we are.
Soccer Roulette Theory suggests you go hard at this point.

 

[rank and file]

FWIW the last 19 WCs for 3rd place average 4.1 Goals , so typically high scoring

Looks like it

 

[GROTTO]

Took a SGM with SB money back offer if one leg fails.

Argentina Trophy into Both teams to score @$3.40

Im a degenerate and wanted a fun bet.