Miguel Sanchez
Snide Shooter
Just having a crack for the hell of it. Not professing to have any great knowledge of junior players, just going off what I've read on here and in the media basically. Tried to get through the whole draft and predict what teams are likely to do, rather than base it on my own ratings of players. Feel free to tell me how badly I've misjudged your team's needs/intentions.
Quite excited about this draft, this is the first time for a number of years that the top 10/12 has been this up in the air so close to draft day. In particular, as a West Coast fan it's been ages since we've had no idea who we're getting with our first-rounder, probably the first time since 2006 really.
1 – St Kilda – Patrick McCartin (key forward, Geelong Falcons, 193cm/95kg)
Late mail has St Kilda leaning towards McCartin despite Petracca having been the favourite to go #1 for some time now. In my view the recent contract extension for Riewoldt supports this late mail – it means he’ll have a couple of years to act as a mentor to Paddy Mac who probably couldn’t wish for a better role model.
2 – Melbourne – Christian Petracca (midfielder, Eastern Ranges, 186cm/92kg)
3 – Melbourne – Angus Brayshaw (midfielder, Sandringham Dragons, 187cm/87kg)
I did initially think that Melbourne would have to strongly consider taking a tall with one of these picks but was comprehensively put in my place. So the consensus top three remains unchanged overall with just the order being shaken up. Melbourne will be hoping that Petracca and Nephew of Jim will form the nucleus of an A-grade midfield along with Viney, Toumpas and co.
4 – GWS Giants – Jarrod Pickett (midfielder, South Fremantle, 179cm/76kg)
Personally wouldn’t have him this high but all the mail has GWS dead keen on him, and with Collingwood pretty keen as well they’ll have to jump here.
5 – Collingwood – Jordan de Goey (midfield/fwd, Oakleigh Chargers, 187cm/82kg)
It’s this pick that will really start to shape the draft from this point on. Collingwood seem set to go for a mid and there’s a few really good choices at this point, with De Goey and Laverde probably the best of them though they’ve also been linked to Langford.
6 – GWS Giants – Jake Lever (key defender, Calder Cannons, 192cm/84kg)
7 – GWS Giants – Hugh Goddard (key defender, Geelong Falcons, 196cm/93kg)
GWS seem set to go tall with at least one of these picks. I’ve got them going tall with both, based on their previous love of stockpiling key position players. As far as talls go they have a real need for defenders and Lever and Goddard are two of the best prospects. Lever would have pushed for the top three but for his injury (and may still come into calculations) and the Giants have been strongly linked to Brendon’s younger cousin for a while now. As a bonus both could possibly swing forward the next time a promising power forward heads home on a multi million dollar contract.
8 – Gold Coast – Liam Duggan (utility, Western Jets, 183cm/76kg)
A tough pick here, Gold Coast will likely have their pick of the smalls that get past Collingwood’s pick 5. Laverde (if he’s still on the board), Ahern and local boy Weller will all appeal but as they’ve already got quite a collection of great young mids I’ve got them picking Duggan, who over the next few years can provide a cool head and neat kick coming out of defence before possibly pushing into the middle later in his career.
9 – Collingwood – Darcy Moore (key forward/def, Oakleigh Chargers, 199cm/93kg)
Locked in.
10 – Geelong – Peter Wright (key forward, Calder Cannons, 203cm/102kg)
The Brodie Grundy of this year’s draft, Wright is a former #1 prospect who is inexplicably slipping. He may even go lower than this but Geelong have a real need for a key forward to provide support to Hawkins and backup in the ruck. They’ve addressed that in the short term by adding Clark and Stanley as well as Josh Walker, but Wright would be a much more long-term solution and with key backs Lever and Goddard off the board their decision will be made a bit easier.
11 – West Coast – Jayden Laverde (utility, Western Jets, 189cm/82kg)
West Coast will simply take the best midfielder available. Weller, Ahern and Cockatoo will appeal at this pick as well but a sliding Laverde, with his big body and explosive power, will prove too good to pass up.
12 – Richmond – Kyle Langford (utility, Northern Knights, 190cm/73kg)
Conventional wisdom has Richmond going for a mid here with Weller, Ahern and even Ellis all in the mix, but I’ve plumped for the taller Langford for a couple of reasons. Firstly, he’s been likened to Bontempelli and whoever drafts him would be hoping like hell he repeats Bonts’ success. Secondly, Richmond have had a love affair with Knights players over the last few years.
13 – Fremantle – Sam Durdin (key defender, West Adelaide, 197cm/89kg)
Freo desperately need talls, especially backs with McPharlin probably in his final year. They’ve got a few prospects in the ressies but Durdin would surpass all of those. He’s been linked to the Dockers pretty strongly in recent days and if he’s still on the board here they’ll snap him up.
14 – Adelaide – Caleb Marchbank (key defender, Murray Bushrangers, 193cm/85kg)
Like Freo, Adelaide need key backs. They’d love Goddard or Durdin to slip here but as they’re both gone the Crows will go for the next best which is Marchbank.
15 – Gold Coast – Lachie Weller (midfielder, Broadbeach, 181cm/71kg)
Suns will be delighted if Weller slips this far as he would have been in calculations at 8. Played for their academy side and a no-brainer if still on the board.
16 – North Melbourne – Paul Ahern (midfielder, Calder Cannons, 181cm/77kg)
Another slider, Ahern could come into calculations for GWS’s early picks. North have had good luck with players slipping down into the late teens – see Atley a few years ago. They’re also strongly linked to Cockatoo but might take the risk that he’s still around at 25.
17 – Essendon – Tom Lamb (utility, Dandenong Stingrays, 192cm/83kg)
Could be anything, or nothing. Essendon are said to be keen and if that’s right, they’ll need to jump here as Carlton are similarly into Lamb. Doesn’t fill the Bombers’ biggest need which is midfield help for Heppell and Watson, but they can address that a few picks later after gazumping the Blues.
18 – Sydney – Isaac Heeney (midfielder, Cardiff, 186cm/82kg)
Locked in, massive steal. Best thing about this pick is that it gives Eddie nightmares.
19 – Carlton – Reece McKenzie (key forward, Northern Knights, 196cm/100kg)
Son of Blues premiership player Wazza McKenzie, Reece is a promising key forward that would fill a massive need for Carlton. Hard to see them passing him up in this scenario.
20 – Essendon – Connor Menadue (midfielder, Western Jets, 188cm/69kg)
As promised, Bombers address their need for a quality mid with Menadue.
Quite excited about this draft, this is the first time for a number of years that the top 10/12 has been this up in the air so close to draft day. In particular, as a West Coast fan it's been ages since we've had no idea who we're getting with our first-rounder, probably the first time since 2006 really.
1 – St Kilda – Patrick McCartin (key forward, Geelong Falcons, 193cm/95kg)
Late mail has St Kilda leaning towards McCartin despite Petracca having been the favourite to go #1 for some time now. In my view the recent contract extension for Riewoldt supports this late mail – it means he’ll have a couple of years to act as a mentor to Paddy Mac who probably couldn’t wish for a better role model.
2 – Melbourne – Christian Petracca (midfielder, Eastern Ranges, 186cm/92kg)
3 – Melbourne – Angus Brayshaw (midfielder, Sandringham Dragons, 187cm/87kg)
I did initially think that Melbourne would have to strongly consider taking a tall with one of these picks but was comprehensively put in my place. So the consensus top three remains unchanged overall with just the order being shaken up. Melbourne will be hoping that Petracca and Nephew of Jim will form the nucleus of an A-grade midfield along with Viney, Toumpas and co.
4 – GWS Giants – Jarrod Pickett (midfielder, South Fremantle, 179cm/76kg)
Personally wouldn’t have him this high but all the mail has GWS dead keen on him, and with Collingwood pretty keen as well they’ll have to jump here.
5 – Collingwood – Jordan de Goey (midfield/fwd, Oakleigh Chargers, 187cm/82kg)
It’s this pick that will really start to shape the draft from this point on. Collingwood seem set to go for a mid and there’s a few really good choices at this point, with De Goey and Laverde probably the best of them though they’ve also been linked to Langford.
6 – GWS Giants – Jake Lever (key defender, Calder Cannons, 192cm/84kg)
7 – GWS Giants – Hugh Goddard (key defender, Geelong Falcons, 196cm/93kg)
GWS seem set to go tall with at least one of these picks. I’ve got them going tall with both, based on their previous love of stockpiling key position players. As far as talls go they have a real need for defenders and Lever and Goddard are two of the best prospects. Lever would have pushed for the top three but for his injury (and may still come into calculations) and the Giants have been strongly linked to Brendon’s younger cousin for a while now. As a bonus both could possibly swing forward the next time a promising power forward heads home on a multi million dollar contract.
8 – Gold Coast – Liam Duggan (utility, Western Jets, 183cm/76kg)
A tough pick here, Gold Coast will likely have their pick of the smalls that get past Collingwood’s pick 5. Laverde (if he’s still on the board), Ahern and local boy Weller will all appeal but as they’ve already got quite a collection of great young mids I’ve got them picking Duggan, who over the next few years can provide a cool head and neat kick coming out of defence before possibly pushing into the middle later in his career.
9 – Collingwood – Darcy Moore (key forward/def, Oakleigh Chargers, 199cm/93kg)
Locked in.
10 – Geelong – Peter Wright (key forward, Calder Cannons, 203cm/102kg)
The Brodie Grundy of this year’s draft, Wright is a former #1 prospect who is inexplicably slipping. He may even go lower than this but Geelong have a real need for a key forward to provide support to Hawkins and backup in the ruck. They’ve addressed that in the short term by adding Clark and Stanley as well as Josh Walker, but Wright would be a much more long-term solution and with key backs Lever and Goddard off the board their decision will be made a bit easier.
11 – West Coast – Jayden Laverde (utility, Western Jets, 189cm/82kg)
West Coast will simply take the best midfielder available. Weller, Ahern and Cockatoo will appeal at this pick as well but a sliding Laverde, with his big body and explosive power, will prove too good to pass up.
12 – Richmond – Kyle Langford (utility, Northern Knights, 190cm/73kg)
Conventional wisdom has Richmond going for a mid here with Weller, Ahern and even Ellis all in the mix, but I’ve plumped for the taller Langford for a couple of reasons. Firstly, he’s been likened to Bontempelli and whoever drafts him would be hoping like hell he repeats Bonts’ success. Secondly, Richmond have had a love affair with Knights players over the last few years.
13 – Fremantle – Sam Durdin (key defender, West Adelaide, 197cm/89kg)
Freo desperately need talls, especially backs with McPharlin probably in his final year. They’ve got a few prospects in the ressies but Durdin would surpass all of those. He’s been linked to the Dockers pretty strongly in recent days and if he’s still on the board here they’ll snap him up.
14 – Adelaide – Caleb Marchbank (key defender, Murray Bushrangers, 193cm/85kg)
Like Freo, Adelaide need key backs. They’d love Goddard or Durdin to slip here but as they’re both gone the Crows will go for the next best which is Marchbank.
15 – Gold Coast – Lachie Weller (midfielder, Broadbeach, 181cm/71kg)
Suns will be delighted if Weller slips this far as he would have been in calculations at 8. Played for their academy side and a no-brainer if still on the board.
16 – North Melbourne – Paul Ahern (midfielder, Calder Cannons, 181cm/77kg)
Another slider, Ahern could come into calculations for GWS’s early picks. North have had good luck with players slipping down into the late teens – see Atley a few years ago. They’re also strongly linked to Cockatoo but might take the risk that he’s still around at 25.
17 – Essendon – Tom Lamb (utility, Dandenong Stingrays, 192cm/83kg)
Could be anything, or nothing. Essendon are said to be keen and if that’s right, they’ll need to jump here as Carlton are similarly into Lamb. Doesn’t fill the Bombers’ biggest need which is midfield help for Heppell and Watson, but they can address that a few picks later after gazumping the Blues.
18 – Sydney – Isaac Heeney (midfielder, Cardiff, 186cm/82kg)
Locked in, massive steal. Best thing about this pick is that it gives Eddie nightmares.
19 – Carlton – Reece McKenzie (key forward, Northern Knights, 196cm/100kg)
Son of Blues premiership player Wazza McKenzie, Reece is a promising key forward that would fill a massive need for Carlton. Hard to see them passing him up in this scenario.
20 – Essendon – Connor Menadue (midfielder, Western Jets, 188cm/69kg)
As promised, Bombers address their need for a quality mid with Menadue.
