Fremantle and the bye

[im_a_lazy_sod]

In the next 3 rounds of AFL, Fremantle play the same number of teams in a row coming off byes

At first, I thought this was a huge disadvantage, which then turned to me feeling quite positive about it, as I thought teams would struggle gaining momentum early in the season

I decided to do some research and look at other (recent) years where they bye was around

1991 AFL Season
Round 1 - irrelevant (7 teams had byes round 1)
Round 2 - Footscray bye (LOSS round 3)
Round 3 - West Coast bye (win round 4)
Round 4 - Hawthorn bye (LOSS round 5)
Round 5 - St. Kilda bye (LOSS round 6)
Round 6 - Richmond bye (LOSS round 7)
Round 7 - Collingwood bye (LOSS round 8)
Round 8 - Adelaide bye (LOSS round 9)
Round 9 - Melbourne bye (LOSS round 10)
Round 10 - Carlton bye (LOSS round 11)
Round 11 - Fitzroy bye (LOSS round 12)
Round 12 - Essendon bye (LOSS round 13)
Round 13 - North Melbourne bye (win round 14)
Round 14 - Geelong bye (win round 15)
Round 15 - Brisbane bye (win round 16)
Round 16 - Sydney bye (LOSS round 17)
Round 17 - Footscray bye (LOSS round 18)
Round 18 - West Coast bye (LOSS round 19)
Round 19 - Hawthorn bye (win round 20)
Round 20 - St Kilda bye (win round 21)
Round 21 - Richmond bye (win round 22)
Round 22 - Collingwood bye (win round 23)
Round 23 - Adelaide bye (win round 24)
Round 24 - Melbourne bye (win first EF)

By the end of the season teams dealt with the bye a lot better - one team won coming off a bye in the first 12 rounds and 9 teams won coming off a bye in the next 12 rounds

The 1992 season saw 15 teams win after coming off byes (24 round season)

In 1993, 13 teams won after coming off byes (22 round season)

The next 2 seasons show that teams dealt with byes better than when they first started (better strategies for keeping momentum going when they don't play the next week?)

Will it be good for us playing 3 teams in a row coming off byes, who will be lacking momentum AND we get two games in a row at Subi (North then the Bulldogs)? I think so

 

[Clay Davis]

At the start of the season you're desperate for match fitness, while at the end you're desperate for a break.

We should beat North, Adelaide will be hard, and who knows with the Dogs.

 

[Higs]

It's probably a slight advantage to us having some consistency early in the season, although Adelaide haven't traveled at all yet and will probably treat this as another round 1. Will be very tough to beat given the Hawks were quite good against them.

I'd be confident about beating both North and the Bullies though.

 

[Seppo]

You know its funny LazySod. I was thinking the exact same thing once the doubters crept in for the Adeliaide game. My humours theory was that Gold Coast did terrible off a BYE early in the season, so that means that Adelaide should too!

But on a serious note, i was hoping to look through some older stats and prove what you have just found. (Im glad you did the research as i CBF'd)
It should boil down to:
-Early byes hurt a team trying to build up form
-Late into the season the BYE should help rejuvinate tired players

Im spewing our last BYE couldn't have come around rnd 20+ to get the lads refreshed for the finals.

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

The doggies play GC before their bye as well - doubt they'll get much valuable match experience out of that if the Carlton/GC game is anything to go by

Also: the average losing margin for a team coming off a bye is 119 points

 

[theGav56]

Would hate to have the bye at the moment. We badly need some game time. That would be the same for quite a few teams (eg Geelong). Too early in the season seems very disruptive.

Where our first bye is positioned also seems ideal for a couple of our injured players in terms of coming back in.

Barlow or Ibbotson could play a game or two, then have a recovery break.

Mzungu or Hayden coming back around the bye looks good too, maybe getting a WAFL game in.

 

[Kruges!]

One can only hope that teams lose their rhythms after having a bye but in this day and age, I don't think that'll happen. Adelaide in Adelaide is always tough, we SHOULD beat North (but they'll be angry with their performance again the Pies) and we should hopefully give the Dogs a decent run. At the end of the day, I think byes help with injuries and all that so its not great that we've got to play them straight after the bye.

 

[shibz_1989]

I'd have preferred a later bye.

 

[Freo88]

I'd have preferred a later bye.

Fair call- with all teams trying to build momentum early. I think we are a sneaky chance this week against adelaide due to their momentum being stopped after week 1