So I've ever only created a thread with one prediction before; in 2012 I accurately predicted that 2016 would be Pav's last year (https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2016-pavs-last-year.973365/). I don't know exactly what that really entitles me to - except to maybe make another prediction and jam it down everyone's throats.
After the news spread (http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...t/news-story/cf0921251c49c21d758ce5b15ad45a7f) that someone had thrown down a cool $20,000 for the Dockers to finally lift that thing that isn't the McClelland Trophy (and silence every joke regarding an incoming-bound ship into the Fremantle Port and what that didn't signify for the Dockers), it actually got me thinking into what our chances might realistically be. Ultimately, I've met a few blokes with deep-pockets - and trust me - most of them still get mighty pissed after they've lost a big bet; chump change or not. So I'm guessing that in his (or her) mind the bet was more serious than a virgin on his first Tinder date.
I'm not going to get hugely into the mechanics here; just observe a few factors that are vital for Premiership success in 2017. Ultimately, we are talking about a lot of things going our way to catapult ourselves into success following our pathetic 2016 campaign. I also acknowledge my whining about Barlow and Silvagni being delisted, but between drinks I've been able to consider things with greater measure. First of all;
1. Coaching
Between last season and now we've lost a few elite coaches, gained a few fresh ones, and had one mic-drop and exit stage-left.
The Game Plan also changed dramatically; moving from our traditionally high-pressure choke-out affect combined with our Helms Deep-like defense to a more free-flowing, open-warfare attacking style. It didn't work. I'm not going to publish verses on what went wrong - suffice to say nobody had any idea how to adapt to the new un-Fremantle like Fremantle game-plan.
What Needs to Happen?
Put simply, Ross and his buddy bro's need to have a quick scan through history and retain every single element of the old Game Plan that used to work effectively. They can do that now cos the Doggies did it and according to the laws of human theology when someone else shows something can be done it somehow becomes possible for everyone.
While retaining key approaches from the past is essential, adopting new strategies is similarly critical. Even though we had critical failures this year, there were (few) times when things worked and our attack actually looked better than it ever has. This was normally gobbled up fairly quick however by an opposition that picked holes in our game plan with ease.
Overall, our new Game Plan must feature a perfect balance between what works whilst simultaneously preparing for the future of Football. Finally, the Game Plan must selflessly adhere to the strengths of Individual Players - this doesn't mean players selfishly taking on the game, it means that if a player is suited perfectly to a particular type of role; let him play that role. Don't play him out of position or minimise their natural flair.
Can It Be Done?
If anyone was to turn an AFL Team around in the space of one season - it would be Ross. Yes it can be done.
2. Injuries
Since 2010 our home and away campaign has been hampered by injury - 2011 and 2016 were our worst years but we still had a tough run from 2012 through to 2015 (our most successful years).
What Needs to Happen?
Not get injured right? Or at least be like other teams and only average 2-3 key outs at a time and 2-3 lower to mid-level players that doesn't completely and utterly throw the balance of our entire team. Last year we were s**t, but the population reduction of our entire club through injury meant that we'd have been better off sending our players on a Cesna 172 opposition game instead of regular commercial air-crafts. We need to have a healthy team to make selections from - there's really no other alternative.
Can it Be Done?
No fudging clue - I don't know if it's a combination of our training ground, playing ground and travel or other things. Hopefully the players can be right to go from the preseason without the acceptable number of collateral layoffs. Ultimately, an injury-free 2017 is a vital path to success.
3. Form of Senior Players
Several of our senior and top-tier (best) players were out of form last year.
What Needs to be Done?
Mundy can play 22 games next year but if he isn't at his elite best it's all for nothing. The same can be said for guys on the fence like Stephen Hill, Hayden Ballantyne and a few others. D. Pearce needs to stop being D. Pearce and be someone else - like a player with actual form.
Can It Be Done?
Of course it can - all our senior players once were in excellent form (see our 2013 season). Zac Clarke can have a prolific season back in the ruck, Ballantyne can become a goal-scoring jet again, and David Mundy can get back to the All-Australian form he was in last year. Stephen Hill can still reach his peak - a lot of these guys aren't too old and broken to get back to basics and do what they do best. With the right game plan, and the right health - all of those things can be achieved.
4. Development of Youth and Up and Comers.
One upside from last year is that a lot of young guys got a crack at the big time and really impressed at senior level. Connor Blakely and Alex Pearce are all but starting 22, and we saw some brilliant flashes from Lachie Weller, Ed Langdon, Sam Collins and some reasonable work from guys like Darcy Tucker and Ethan Hughes. Also, older 'Youth' and up like comers like Hayden Crozier really made a solid impression (in the much-need HB position) and junk-time Draft pick Shane Yarran proved he could become one of our most influential and versatile key-forwards.
What Needs to Be Done?
For these guys to reach the next level of their potential. With a solid pre-season, some of these players could really come into their own and become next-level players. Alex Pearce can become our next spiritual-leader in Defense, Connor Blakely can become our next great inside-guts ball-winner, Hayden Crozier can continue his solid work at half-back and give us the kicking precision we so sorely need back there. Guys like Weller and Langdon may be able to stamp their authority as best-22 players and give us the skilled-burst that's vital to our midfield.
Can it be Done?
Out of anything, I'm most confident about this. If injury-free, a lot of these guys are going to become bonafide players next year - and I believe we are all going to be very, very, excited about what's to come.
5. Immediate Impact of Trades
We have four new talents - Cam McCarthy, Brad Hill, Joel Hamling and Shane Kersten that we have acquired from our trading period. Guys like McCarthy have a huge amount of potential, but have a lot of hurdles to overcome. We've seen B. Hill's talents in Hawthorn, but can he take things to the next level in WA? Hamling and Kersten look like they could be the goods, but they've had such little time in the AFL to prove their durability. I'm going to throw in Bennell as well as he's never played in the Home and Away season for us.
What Needs to Happen?
These five need to make the transition into our club seamlessly and perfectly. We need Cam McCarthy not necessarily to be Pavlich, but to be the key-forward we know he can be. He needs to make the forward 50 his bitch, his hunting ground. B. Hill needs to give us speed and agility in the midfield, H. Bennell needs to be injury-free and carry the midfield and forward impact he did for the Gold Coast in 2014 and 2015 (who can forget the 6 he punted against Geelong in 2014?) and Hamling and Kersten quite simply need to fulfill their unknowable potential as soon as humanly possible.
Can it be Done?
Yes - but the speed in which they need to adapt to their new clubs, coach and environment is paramount here. They need to seamlessly fit in with the team, and adopt whatever superior Game Plan Lyon and co will come up with this year. On top of all that they will need to be as good as every Dockers fan hopes they can be. In reality I think we'll get halfway there - McCarthy and B. Hill will be diamonds straightaway, Kersten and Hamling might take a bit longer but by the years end will be in a much better space.
6. Skills
Our skills were deplorable last year, and they weren't even that excellent in our peak period. Kicking efficiency, hand-balling, goal-kicking, contested marking have all been poor areas for us that we need to drastically improved upon.
What Needs to be Done?
There are limitations in coaching skills, but I'd still say there's probably a fair way to go through there as well. Ultimately we have a need to draft or trade for skilled-players but that will take a couple more years to invest in. McCarthy and Kersten are for kicking goals, Hamling is a defender so the skills at present need to come from guys like B. Hill, H. Bennell and a myriad of senior players already apart of the team. Unfortunately this means that guys like D. Pearce, Sutcliffe and Ibbotson should really not be getting games (or even Sheridan in defence) ahead of other players that might be able to do their jobs with more precision. We also need to rely upon guys like Weller, Langdon and Blakely to be our new midfield force that will hopefully find our players up front better than others.
Can it be Done?
Yes - although I'm not sure if the turn-around will be that quick. I think whoever we get in the draft this year will tend towards the sleeker side, but we may have to wait some time to reap the fruits of our harvest. If steps 3, 4 and 5 outlined above occur than the improvement of skills should occurs somewhat naturally.
Conclusion: If we were able to miraculously perfect the 6 steps listed above next year, then we are within a shot at the Flag. All 6 of them are possible however it's more than a little unlikely that everyone will and everything will gell together perfectly all at once.
I do think we will have teething problems for the first few months of football next year, but I predict we will go all 2012 on everyone; and after being dubbed 'unwatchable' we'll turn everything around in the back-half of next year and maybe sneak our way into the finals. From there I believe we will win the Grand Final in a similar fashion to the Bulldogs - probably out of the Top 4 and completely left-field. I think we'll do this from 5th or 6th spot.
The way our team will work will involve a mixture of our best defending and soon-to-be electric forward attack. Johnson, Dawson, A. Pearce and Hamling will blunt the attack - our midfield will include expert ball-winners like Fyfe, Mundy, Blakely and Neale palming it off to explosive running midfielders like B. Hill, S. Hill, Langdon and Sheridan. The forward 50 will look completely different with McCarthy, Kersten, Yarran, Bennell, Waters and Ballantyne dominating; the perfect combination of talls, mediums and smalls. Remember Fyfe planning on spending more time forward? That's going to happen as well, and soon the wisdom in utilising as a resting ruckman will see us pound on more goals than Beckham after a truckload of Red Bulls.
Thank you for reading my Fantasy.
After the news spread (http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...t/news-story/cf0921251c49c21d758ce5b15ad45a7f) that someone had thrown down a cool $20,000 for the Dockers to finally lift that thing that isn't the McClelland Trophy (and silence every joke regarding an incoming-bound ship into the Fremantle Port and what that didn't signify for the Dockers), it actually got me thinking into what our chances might realistically be. Ultimately, I've met a few blokes with deep-pockets - and trust me - most of them still get mighty pissed after they've lost a big bet; chump change or not. So I'm guessing that in his (or her) mind the bet was more serious than a virgin on his first Tinder date.
I'm not going to get hugely into the mechanics here; just observe a few factors that are vital for Premiership success in 2017. Ultimately, we are talking about a lot of things going our way to catapult ourselves into success following our pathetic 2016 campaign. I also acknowledge my whining about Barlow and Silvagni being delisted, but between drinks I've been able to consider things with greater measure. First of all;
1. Coaching
Between last season and now we've lost a few elite coaches, gained a few fresh ones, and had one mic-drop and exit stage-left.
The Game Plan also changed dramatically; moving from our traditionally high-pressure choke-out affect combined with our Helms Deep-like defense to a more free-flowing, open-warfare attacking style. It didn't work. I'm not going to publish verses on what went wrong - suffice to say nobody had any idea how to adapt to the new un-Fremantle like Fremantle game-plan.
What Needs to Happen?
Put simply, Ross and his buddy bro's need to have a quick scan through history and retain every single element of the old Game Plan that used to work effectively. They can do that now cos the Doggies did it and according to the laws of human theology when someone else shows something can be done it somehow becomes possible for everyone.
While retaining key approaches from the past is essential, adopting new strategies is similarly critical. Even though we had critical failures this year, there were (few) times when things worked and our attack actually looked better than it ever has. This was normally gobbled up fairly quick however by an opposition that picked holes in our game plan with ease.
Overall, our new Game Plan must feature a perfect balance between what works whilst simultaneously preparing for the future of Football. Finally, the Game Plan must selflessly adhere to the strengths of Individual Players - this doesn't mean players selfishly taking on the game, it means that if a player is suited perfectly to a particular type of role; let him play that role. Don't play him out of position or minimise their natural flair.
Can It Be Done?
If anyone was to turn an AFL Team around in the space of one season - it would be Ross. Yes it can be done.
2. Injuries
Since 2010 our home and away campaign has been hampered by injury - 2011 and 2016 were our worst years but we still had a tough run from 2012 through to 2015 (our most successful years).
What Needs to Happen?
Not get injured right? Or at least be like other teams and only average 2-3 key outs at a time and 2-3 lower to mid-level players that doesn't completely and utterly throw the balance of our entire team. Last year we were s**t, but the population reduction of our entire club through injury meant that we'd have been better off sending our players on a Cesna 172 opposition game instead of regular commercial air-crafts. We need to have a healthy team to make selections from - there's really no other alternative.
Can it Be Done?
No fudging clue - I don't know if it's a combination of our training ground, playing ground and travel or other things. Hopefully the players can be right to go from the preseason without the acceptable number of collateral layoffs. Ultimately, an injury-free 2017 is a vital path to success.
3. Form of Senior Players
Several of our senior and top-tier (best) players were out of form last year.
What Needs to be Done?
Mundy can play 22 games next year but if he isn't at his elite best it's all for nothing. The same can be said for guys on the fence like Stephen Hill, Hayden Ballantyne and a few others. D. Pearce needs to stop being D. Pearce and be someone else - like a player with actual form.
Can It Be Done?
Of course it can - all our senior players once were in excellent form (see our 2013 season). Zac Clarke can have a prolific season back in the ruck, Ballantyne can become a goal-scoring jet again, and David Mundy can get back to the All-Australian form he was in last year. Stephen Hill can still reach his peak - a lot of these guys aren't too old and broken to get back to basics and do what they do best. With the right game plan, and the right health - all of those things can be achieved.
4. Development of Youth and Up and Comers.
One upside from last year is that a lot of young guys got a crack at the big time and really impressed at senior level. Connor Blakely and Alex Pearce are all but starting 22, and we saw some brilliant flashes from Lachie Weller, Ed Langdon, Sam Collins and some reasonable work from guys like Darcy Tucker and Ethan Hughes. Also, older 'Youth' and up like comers like Hayden Crozier really made a solid impression (in the much-need HB position) and junk-time Draft pick Shane Yarran proved he could become one of our most influential and versatile key-forwards.
What Needs to Be Done?
For these guys to reach the next level of their potential. With a solid pre-season, some of these players could really come into their own and become next-level players. Alex Pearce can become our next spiritual-leader in Defense, Connor Blakely can become our next great inside-guts ball-winner, Hayden Crozier can continue his solid work at half-back and give us the kicking precision we so sorely need back there. Guys like Weller and Langdon may be able to stamp their authority as best-22 players and give us the skilled-burst that's vital to our midfield.
Can it be Done?
Out of anything, I'm most confident about this. If injury-free, a lot of these guys are going to become bonafide players next year - and I believe we are all going to be very, very, excited about what's to come.
5. Immediate Impact of Trades
We have four new talents - Cam McCarthy, Brad Hill, Joel Hamling and Shane Kersten that we have acquired from our trading period. Guys like McCarthy have a huge amount of potential, but have a lot of hurdles to overcome. We've seen B. Hill's talents in Hawthorn, but can he take things to the next level in WA? Hamling and Kersten look like they could be the goods, but they've had such little time in the AFL to prove their durability. I'm going to throw in Bennell as well as he's never played in the Home and Away season for us.
What Needs to Happen?
These five need to make the transition into our club seamlessly and perfectly. We need Cam McCarthy not necessarily to be Pavlich, but to be the key-forward we know he can be. He needs to make the forward 50 his bitch, his hunting ground. B. Hill needs to give us speed and agility in the midfield, H. Bennell needs to be injury-free and carry the midfield and forward impact he did for the Gold Coast in 2014 and 2015 (who can forget the 6 he punted against Geelong in 2014?) and Hamling and Kersten quite simply need to fulfill their unknowable potential as soon as humanly possible.
Can it be Done?
Yes - but the speed in which they need to adapt to their new clubs, coach and environment is paramount here. They need to seamlessly fit in with the team, and adopt whatever superior Game Plan Lyon and co will come up with this year. On top of all that they will need to be as good as every Dockers fan hopes they can be. In reality I think we'll get halfway there - McCarthy and B. Hill will be diamonds straightaway, Kersten and Hamling might take a bit longer but by the years end will be in a much better space.
6. Skills
Our skills were deplorable last year, and they weren't even that excellent in our peak period. Kicking efficiency, hand-balling, goal-kicking, contested marking have all been poor areas for us that we need to drastically improved upon.
What Needs to be Done?
There are limitations in coaching skills, but I'd still say there's probably a fair way to go through there as well. Ultimately we have a need to draft or trade for skilled-players but that will take a couple more years to invest in. McCarthy and Kersten are for kicking goals, Hamling is a defender so the skills at present need to come from guys like B. Hill, H. Bennell and a myriad of senior players already apart of the team. Unfortunately this means that guys like D. Pearce, Sutcliffe and Ibbotson should really not be getting games (or even Sheridan in defence) ahead of other players that might be able to do their jobs with more precision. We also need to rely upon guys like Weller, Langdon and Blakely to be our new midfield force that will hopefully find our players up front better than others.
Can it be Done?
Yes - although I'm not sure if the turn-around will be that quick. I think whoever we get in the draft this year will tend towards the sleeker side, but we may have to wait some time to reap the fruits of our harvest. If steps 3, 4 and 5 outlined above occur than the improvement of skills should occurs somewhat naturally.
Conclusion: If we were able to miraculously perfect the 6 steps listed above next year, then we are within a shot at the Flag. All 6 of them are possible however it's more than a little unlikely that everyone will and everything will gell together perfectly all at once.
I do think we will have teething problems for the first few months of football next year, but I predict we will go all 2012 on everyone; and after being dubbed 'unwatchable' we'll turn everything around in the back-half of next year and maybe sneak our way into the finals. From there I believe we will win the Grand Final in a similar fashion to the Bulldogs - probably out of the Top 4 and completely left-field. I think we'll do this from 5th or 6th spot.
The way our team will work will involve a mixture of our best defending and soon-to-be electric forward attack. Johnson, Dawson, A. Pearce and Hamling will blunt the attack - our midfield will include expert ball-winners like Fyfe, Mundy, Blakely and Neale palming it off to explosive running midfielders like B. Hill, S. Hill, Langdon and Sheridan. The forward 50 will look completely different with McCarthy, Kersten, Yarran, Bennell, Waters and Ballantyne dominating; the perfect combination of talls, mediums and smalls. Remember Fyfe planning on spending more time forward? That's going to happen as well, and soon the wisdom in utilising as a resting ruckman will see us pound on more goals than Beckham after a truckload of Red Bulls.
Thank you for reading my Fantasy.
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