After probably the darkest trading period in the Pies history and the seemingly increasing trend of salary dumps and free agency, we need a complete revamp of our trading and drafting strategy going forward. I'm going to avoid discussion of our incompetent list management team and administration in this thread and purely focus on what I think the blueprint for success should be for the Pies from a strategy perspective.
Salary dump trades
This trade period has just highlighted how important salary cap space is. We were obviously the worst example but plenty of other clubs also had to shed players for even cheaper. E.g. Alex Witherden (who just lost the rising star to Stephenson) traded for picks in the 60s, Peter Wright who was a best 22 CHF apart from 2020 for a future 4th. They just didn't have to shed 3 players in a fire sale all at once. Cap space can get you just as much trade return as high draft picks. We were obviously on the losing end (massively) this time, but hopefully we'll be smart enough to take advantage of these opportunities in the future
Free agency
The salary dump trade is basically an extension of free agency. It's both an opportunity to acquire gun players for no trade capital (e.g. Lynch, Frawley, Franklin) or a way to mess up your cap by spending big on highly replaceable role players (e.g. 30+ y.o. Wells, Mayne, Clinton Young). We've obviously gone down the latter route this decade but going forward, we should only use Free Agency to make big money offers to big name players that would be too expensive to acquire through a trade.
No one is worth paying 2x first rounders for
We obviously didn't learn from a Treloar trade and went ahead and did it again with Beams. It's basically wasted 5 years of first round picks. Thank god we had Quaynor come through as an academy pick. We're not the only examples either. Jake Lever, Tim Kelly, Dylan Shiel, O'Meara - I don't think any of those clubs improved with these acquisitions. The max we should ever pay in terms of a trade for a star should be a first and a second. Similar to the price paid for Neale, Tom Mitchell and Dangerfield. Those were good acquisitions. Essendon were smart enough to learn from Shiel to not pay the same again for Dunkley. I can see the Cameron trade coming back to bite Geelong having paid so much in draft capital plus still having a free agency style size of contract hanging.
Build through the draft
In the last 2 decades, Collingwood has never successfully attracted a big fish from another club and the one that we did (Treloar), we've now completely botched it. Our 2010 premiership was built off the back of great drafting plus 2 smart acquisitions of Jolly and Ball where we didn't overpay. We're not Hawthorn/Geelong. We shouldn't be trying to trade for success. I would also argue that their model is flawed as their premiership success was built off their great drafts in the early 2000's. I'm also of the view that their current strategy will leave them in a world of pain for a decade whilst failing to win them a premiership in the last 5 years.
Target player for player trades
These provide the most value in terms of bringing in a player of need without sacrificing additional cap space or giving up draft picks. We've done the best out of these trades in the last decade with Adams for Shaw, Howe for Kennedy/Seedsman and Varcoe for Lumumba.
Build around generational and structurally important players
We should be following the Richmond model where they focus on a core group of elite talent and just have replaceable role players around them that play to the system. That means everyone is expendable apart from the core 4-5 and if those role players start shopping around and ask for a higher contract offer than what you're willing to pay, you trade them for picks and give the younger talent an opportunity to take those spots and develop. For us, that core irreplaceable group still in their prime would be Grundy, Moore, JDG and Adams (more so for his leadership rather than output). You pay these players whatever it takes to keep them as it's difficult to find players who could ever match their abilities. If we had taken this approach, we would have traded Langdon, Cox, Elliott when they were looking around. We would have gotten much higher draft picks in return, avoided having to force out players that want to stay like Treloar/Stephenson creating player angst and managed our salary cap much better.
As much as it hurts giving up Treloar and Stephenson for 1 late first round pick, they are replaceable. I'm still optimistic of our core playing list but we need to get much smarter. I was going to avoid comment of our administration but getting smarter would mean changes all the way from Eddie down. I can't imagine our current administration being able to pivot and execute this new strategy. Too many burnt bridges in the club and in the industry. The only person I would keep would be Hine and his recruiting team to help us build around the draft again.
Salary dump trades
This trade period has just highlighted how important salary cap space is. We were obviously the worst example but plenty of other clubs also had to shed players for even cheaper. E.g. Alex Witherden (who just lost the rising star to Stephenson) traded for picks in the 60s, Peter Wright who was a best 22 CHF apart from 2020 for a future 4th. They just didn't have to shed 3 players in a fire sale all at once. Cap space can get you just as much trade return as high draft picks. We were obviously on the losing end (massively) this time, but hopefully we'll be smart enough to take advantage of these opportunities in the future
Free agency
The salary dump trade is basically an extension of free agency. It's both an opportunity to acquire gun players for no trade capital (e.g. Lynch, Frawley, Franklin) or a way to mess up your cap by spending big on highly replaceable role players (e.g. 30+ y.o. Wells, Mayne, Clinton Young). We've obviously gone down the latter route this decade but going forward, we should only use Free Agency to make big money offers to big name players that would be too expensive to acquire through a trade.
No one is worth paying 2x first rounders for
We obviously didn't learn from a Treloar trade and went ahead and did it again with Beams. It's basically wasted 5 years of first round picks. Thank god we had Quaynor come through as an academy pick. We're not the only examples either. Jake Lever, Tim Kelly, Dylan Shiel, O'Meara - I don't think any of those clubs improved with these acquisitions. The max we should ever pay in terms of a trade for a star should be a first and a second. Similar to the price paid for Neale, Tom Mitchell and Dangerfield. Those were good acquisitions. Essendon were smart enough to learn from Shiel to not pay the same again for Dunkley. I can see the Cameron trade coming back to bite Geelong having paid so much in draft capital plus still having a free agency style size of contract hanging.
Build through the draft
In the last 2 decades, Collingwood has never successfully attracted a big fish from another club and the one that we did (Treloar), we've now completely botched it. Our 2010 premiership was built off the back of great drafting plus 2 smart acquisitions of Jolly and Ball where we didn't overpay. We're not Hawthorn/Geelong. We shouldn't be trying to trade for success. I would also argue that their model is flawed as their premiership success was built off their great drafts in the early 2000's. I'm also of the view that their current strategy will leave them in a world of pain for a decade whilst failing to win them a premiership in the last 5 years.
Target player for player trades
These provide the most value in terms of bringing in a player of need without sacrificing additional cap space or giving up draft picks. We've done the best out of these trades in the last decade with Adams for Shaw, Howe for Kennedy/Seedsman and Varcoe for Lumumba.
Build around generational and structurally important players
We should be following the Richmond model where they focus on a core group of elite talent and just have replaceable role players around them that play to the system. That means everyone is expendable apart from the core 4-5 and if those role players start shopping around and ask for a higher contract offer than what you're willing to pay, you trade them for picks and give the younger talent an opportunity to take those spots and develop. For us, that core irreplaceable group still in their prime would be Grundy, Moore, JDG and Adams (more so for his leadership rather than output). You pay these players whatever it takes to keep them as it's difficult to find players who could ever match their abilities. If we had taken this approach, we would have traded Langdon, Cox, Elliott when they were looking around. We would have gotten much higher draft picks in return, avoided having to force out players that want to stay like Treloar/Stephenson creating player angst and managed our salary cap much better.
As much as it hurts giving up Treloar and Stephenson for 1 late first round pick, they are replaceable. I'm still optimistic of our core playing list but we need to get much smarter. I was going to avoid comment of our administration but getting smarter would mean changes all the way from Eddie down. I can't imagine our current administration being able to pivot and execute this new strategy. Too many burnt bridges in the club and in the industry. The only person I would keep would be Hine and his recruiting team to help us build around the draft again.
