Preview Gameday Thread. Hawks Vs Lions

[grizzlym]

Round 16
Hawthorn vs Brisbane Lions

*These teams will change*

Where and when: Aurora Stadium, Saturday, July 17, 2.10pm AEST
Head to head: Hawthorn 22 wins, Brisbane Lions 16 wins
Last time: Brisbane Lions 13.15 (93) d Hawthorn 7.9 (51), round 12, 2009 at Aurora Stadium

Hawthorn
B: Brent Guerra, Ben Stratton, Josh Gibson
HB: Thomas Murphy, Stephen Gilham, Grant Birchall
C: Clinton Young, Sam Mitchell, Chance Bateman
HF: Cyril Rioli, Lance Franklin, Michael Osborne
F: Shaun Burgoyne, Jarryd Roughead, Campbell Brown
Foll: Brent Renouf, Luke Hodge, Xavier Ellis
I/C: Jordan Lewis, Carl Peterson, Wayde Skipper, Brendan Whitecross
Emg: Jordan Lisle, Shane Savage, Brad Sewell
In: Mitchell, Whitecross
Out: Brad Sewell, Ryan Schoenmakers

Brisbane Lions
B: Tom Collier, Daniel Merrett, Ashley McGrath
HB: Daniel Rich, Joel Patfull, Travis Johnstone
C: Jack Redden, Tom Rockliff, Justin Sherman
HF: James Polkinghorne, Jonathan Brown, Luke Power
F: Todd Banfield, Brendan Fevola, Brent Staker
Foll: Mitchell Clark, Michael Rischitelli, Jared Brennan
I/C: Matthew Leuenberger, Pearce Hanley, Amon Buchanan, Matt Maguire
Emg: James Hawksley, Aaron Cornelius, Jesse O'Brien
In: Brown, Maguire
Out: Aaron Cornelius, Simon Black (ankle)

FORM
Hawthorn:WWWWL
Brisbane Lions: LLLLL

http://www.afl.com.au/Premiership/M...play=1&seasonid=75&roundid=759&fixtureid=5365

Jason Katsoukis slew the lions, so can we.

Anyone remember the Bacchus Marsh Lion Park? A bunch of pensioned-off, toothless, old moth-eaten Lions limped around some dude's farm down Bacchus Marsh way. I went their for birthday party at primary school and the highlight was Jason Katsoukis opening the door of the car and running towards a pack of lions. Can't remember what happened but Jason survived just fine.

Those lions down at Bacchus Marsh are kind of like how the Northern Lions are travelling - old, decrepit, toothless, mangy etc. But make no mistake, while they lack the tooth of old, they did smash us last year, and they are perfectly capable of gumming us into submission.

On paper the Lions look ok. Brown back. And Fev too (will he come to play or play the tables at that casino joint they've got down there?)

Another big game for us, and without Buddy too, which we simply must win.

We've speculated on the team changes here.

And discussed the merits of the actual team selected here.

Many thanks to Hawkinspired for the great preview too.

So without any further ado, it's on with the gameday thread, Go Hawks!

 

[grizzlym]

Thanks Hawkinspired for the great preview.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions @ Aurora Stadium Tasmania

Despite my love for the game and my passion for its growth in the northern states, I absolutely despise the Brisbane Lions and anything to do with them. So given that I’m from Brisbane, it only seems fitting that I do the preview.

History

Last time they met was in round 12, 2009. Brisbane were on the up under guidance of there new coach Michael Voss, and Hawthorn were in the midst of an injury crisis with Gilham, Ladson, Young and Rioli missing from the regular line up. Brisbane prevailed after being 2 goals down at half time, winning 93-51 in windy conditions in Launceston. They out tackled us 83-53 and Jonathon Brown kicked 5 straight, while our two towers only managed 2 goals between them.

So far this season

Hawthorn has been in scintillating form after struggling for continuity in the first part of the season. The injury list is small and the confidence must be high after two impressive performances over Geelong and Western Bulldogs. The backline has been exceptional, only conceding 76 points on average in the last 8 rounds, while Rioli and Franklin have provided much delight week by week in the highlight reel.

Brisbane, on the other hand were touted as one of the teams to beat earlier in the season when they ‘impressively’ defeated bottom rate sides in, Port Adelaide, West Coast and Carlton. Much to everyone’s surprise they have won 2 games since. But objectiveness aside, they have had some key injuries, and been exposed for depth much like us in 2009.

Gameplan

After watching Brisbane last week against St Kilda they really struggled with the zone that was set up. Half their kicks were backwards and only managed 39 inside 50’s for the match. St Kilda were fairly ordinary but their defensive set up was probably the main thing that helped them over the line.

Hawthorn has been more direct in recent weeks with their attack, going towards a more man on man approach and either way they play should make it tough for the Lions midfield.

Match ups

I can’t help to think back to the Nab #4 match where I saw the young Shoe outplay the great Jonathon Brown. Obviously the coaching staff doesn’t remember because he has been omitted from the side. Gibson struggled on Fevola and Gilham was unusually placed on Luke Power.

Fast forward till now and young Stratton has taken the world by storm and Gilham has finally stamped his name amongst the ranks. So who takes the big guns – If they are playing? I saw first hand Fevola’s efforts last weekend. He ran about 1-2km for the entire match. Less than Riewoldt who played less than half a game and was woeful. The Fev has natural ability, but maybe due to injury or unhappiness he is not running. We need someone who can beat him in a contest and I’d like to throw Gilham the challenge after his performance last week.

Sewell did a great job on Simon Black last time we met, but that match up will be irrelevant come tomorrow. Luke Power amassed a 36 possession game against Chance Bateman. That match up will need to be looked at.

Injuries

Hawthorn welcomes their skipper Sam Mitchell back after missing a week with a broken hand. Rhan Hooper and Simon Taylor should be back in contention in 2 to 3 weeks. Lance Franklin rolled his ankle at training and even though he was named, he has just been a late withdrawal and did not make the trip to Tasmania.

Brisbane’s backline is still in cahoots with Raines, Adcock and Drummond all on the sidelines for an extended period. They will however, regain their skipper Jonathon Brown from a groin injury, and ‘Goose’ Maguire from a foot injury. Both are rumoured not to be right and could be late withdrawals. Simon Black will also miss with an ankle injury.

Other Info

Brad Sewell and Aaron Cornelius were both surprise exclusions from their respective sides. They have been named as emergencies along with key position prospect Jordan Lilse who could make his debut for Hawthorn.

Wildcard

Rioli is on fire at the moment and honestly, I can’t see who will play on him this weekend. He missed out last time they played and is spending more time in the middle averaging 23 disposals in his last four outings. He has averaged over 5 clearances per game in this time and bagged 6 goals.

Summary

Brisbane have some good up and coming mids in Redden, Rich and Rockcliff but it seems unlikely that they will be able to outclass the likes of Burgoyne, Mitchell, Rioli, Lewis and Hodge. Fevola isn’t quite right and if Brown gets a gig, it’s unlikely that he will be at his best. Forecast says no rain but we could have a bit of wind about. I just can’t see Brisbane getting close.

Hawks by 50+ points.

 

[LuvMyHawks]

Great report Hawkinspired.. I love your 50 pt anticipation.. I hope you are right, we need a percentage boost..

 

[Hawkinspired]

Great report Hawkinspired.. I love your 50 pt anticipation.. I hope you are right, we need a percentage boost..

Thanks. I orginally had 80 points but i thought i would be more conservative!

 

[Pessimistic]

Cam Brown predicted the cats would lose because last weeks game was so 'bruising'

Lets hope the same doesnt apply to the Hawks

 

[macdaddio]

Any news on the outs for the lions if any?

Maybe it might be a good idea to play Lisle tomorrow, with Mitch having a break and whitex coming in it could give us 3 sets of fresh legs for the match.
Just can't believe we lost to the Cats last week after watching them tonight they are on the downer

 

[reubski23]

Bloody scared about tomorrow, reminds me off the west coast game. Brown tipped Adelaide against Geelong because he said it was a very tough game, so i think hawthorn are feeling it big time and with buddy out= not good. Hopefully, our momentum will carry us towards a victory.

 

[Hawker_Ant]

I'm a bit worried about this one. No Buddy, no Sool. Will Stumpy play?

50 points? Love to see that but I strongly doubt it, this could be another fight. Against a team that has a point to prove. Four points by a dozen-odd is my prediction. I'd like to be proven wrong, but percentage is not a factor for us. It's about how many games Dogs lose.

 

[grizzlym]

Mitch will play.

 

[Woodside Hawk]

Last week was a bruising game, no doubt, but I'm more concerned about a mental let-down than a physical one. Just a bit concerned after having to get themselves 'up' to play the Bulldogs and Geelong, subconsciously they may be looking at this week as a bit of a week off/breather before they take on the Saints. I know that I've felt far less excited or up about this weekend's game than I have for the past couple of weeks...just hoping the coaching staff and players are far more professional than me!

 

[Snoref]

No Franklin is a big big out. Add to that no Sewell. I think this game will be closer than most people think. Also another factor will be the game we played against the Cats last week. Very taxing game, wouldn't be surprised if we started off flat and never really get into it. It could go either way, for some reason i cant help but think the lions might just beat us, but I really hope i'm wrong!!

 

[Hawker_Ant]

Freaking gobsmacked Sool could be left out. Gobsmacked. Like he's been worse than the Magpie Burgoyne? Who doesn't contest unless he has to? (Sorry, Burgoyne just doesn't do the hard work for mine, leaves it for others... get possessions off the inside workers...).

Will miss Buddy. If Lisle in, hope he impresses. Not sure any leading forward works in the current strategy. Not how we play any more.

 

[Jaeger]

Mitch will play.

Good news. Either Sewell or Lisle will play too obviously.

This is a very important game for us.

We're coming off a tough match against the Cats and we need to get back to our winning way.

Buddy is huge loss. He saves us in tight games.

Our run home is:

Saints (Etihad), Port (AAMI), Sydney (SCG), Demons, Freo (Aur) and Collingwood.

We need to win at least four of our remaining seven games to compete in the finals. A win tomorrow would take a lot of pressure off us, with a mixture of tough, yet very winnable games to come.

A loss tomorrow would be blowing a great opportunity.

After coming off a close loss, the boys might lose a bit of confidence and the skills might be scratchy. Games in Tassie are usually close and without Buddy, this could go either way.

The omission of Sewell should give the boys a boost to compete at the standard they're both expected and capable of.

Hopefully our in-form defenders can put in another solid performance. Fevola and Brown have both caused us some grief over the years but have never faced us with Ben Stratton.

Hopefully Roughy and the other forwards step up - Rough usually plays well in Tassie.

The midfield battle should go our way. Brisbane have a few very good ruckmen, so Skipper and Renouf need to have a big one. With Taylor coming back in a few weeks I'm sure they'll be fighting for their spot.

Lets hope the lads play well & no injuries!

Go Hawks!

 

[WillowSF]

Disappointing to see Sewell dropped. He's been solid this year and given past performances you would think he had enough credits in the bank. If the coaching staff were to apply the same criteria Roughead would have been dropped weeks ago. (I'm not saying he should have but this makes no sense.)

We should win but with Buddy out I'm not confident.

 

[markr]

Hopefully no Franklin doesn't hurt us like when we went over to Subi to play West Coast early in the year. Brisbane played much better footy last week than they had in previous games, and Brown and Maguire are big ins for them if they both play.

However the midfield is their big weakness, and Black out does them no favours. As long as we win the midfield battle and limit the supply to Brown and Fev we should take them.

 

[Buddyman]

I agree with a lot of the boys comments, this could well be a danger game...
Roughy has to stand up, but I have the feeling Rioli may kick a few today.
I wish I had foxtel, I've got to listen to it on the radio (unless anyone has a live link, fingers crossed and touch wood)
GO HAWKS and lets get the 4 down in Tassie!

 

[Pessimistic]

Intersting the papar said Hawks had the most contested posessions in the AFL last week (against geelong) and brisbane the least. Quite creditable - so our problem was the forwards - not the defenders or mids.

Yet a defender and a mid get dropped.

PS I still think the club knows better than I

 

[pjay79]

Absolutely critical game to win, go Hawkers.

If we lose, start checking your rear-view mirrors for Adelaide and possibly North Melbourne who might squeeze us out of the 8.

PJ.

 

[parsons nose]

Looking forward to this one. I agree Grizz, cant see the lions giving us too much trouble here. Allot of water has gone under the bridge since the two teams last met. With our superior midfield and in form back line Im expecting a win north of 30 points.

 

[macdaddio]

We have to remember the delivery Fev was getting from the Blues compared to what he is getting from the Lions is a huge difference in how many he goals he is averaging now, also Brown wont be able to do much i don't think he is over his hip injury i think Voss has spun us horse manure and Goos wont be able to run his leg is never going to let him get back to his best.
With our defence and our Midfield we should really win by 4-6 goals...

 

[TAITA]

Weather: Currently 7.1 degrees with no breeze whatsoever, expecting a top of 14. Mainly cloudy and any rain should hold off until tonight.

"Central North for Saturday Central North and Midlands: Morning fog patches, otherwise fine apart from isolated showers about the north coast, becoming more extensive during the afternoon. Cold to locally very cold with frost patches at first, then a cool to locally mild day. Light winds tending light to moderate northwesterly and freshening about the coast later."

Seems like perfect conditions to debut Lisle to me.

 

[dogsfoot]

Freaking gobsmacked Sool could be left out. Gobsmacked. Like he's been worse than the Magpie Burgoyne? Who doesn't contest unless he has to? (Sorry, Burgoyne just doesn't do the hard work for mine, leaves it for others... get possessions off the inside workers...).

Forgive me if I`m wrong but, don`t the inside players need to give the ball to someone??

 

[go hawks!!!]

Weather update: cloudy and drizzle. I'd say the ground will be slippery so sewell must play.

Mitch is a definate starter

 

[Hodgepodge]

Gibson struggles against both of Brown/Fev so must likely we will see if Stratton can hold a gorilla.

 

[Flamin Joe]

Freaking gobsmacked Sool could be left out. Gobsmacked. Like he's been worse than the Magpie Burgoyne? Who doesn't contest unless he has to? (Sorry, Burgoyne just doesn't do the hard work for mine, leaves it for others... get possessions off the inside workers...).

To be fair on Burgoyne, he's missed a huge chunk of games over the past couple of years due to injuries. He needs to be given longer game time to not only get his match fitness back, but to also start getting his rhythm back so he can play at his best. If he was dropped ahead of Sewell after only 7 games (on top of only managing 9 games last year for PA), now that would be gobsmacked worthy.