- Banned
- #1
THE biggest losers from the Gold Coast's entry into the competition won't be the teams that lose uncontracted players. Rather, it will be those clubs finishing at or near the bottom in 2010 that will suffer the most outrageous misfortune.
Even a team that is deprived of a key player will receive significant draft compensation, and no club can lose more than one uncontracted player. So if the Saints lost Nick Riewoldt — who'd be 28 by then — it would dent them in the short term, but they'd get a decent draft pick in return.
But what fate awaits the teams that happen to be bottoming out when the new club is coming in? Here, the numbers are terrifying. The wooden-spooner, normally rewarded with the prized first pick in the national draft, would get pick four.
The 15th-placed side, which might be just as bad as the 16th, will receive pick six. That might produce a champion, but it's far less likely to provide one than the usual entitlement of pick No. 2.
Arguably the worst places to finish, however, are from 12th to 14th. The club that finishes 14th would receive only draft pick No. 8 — a full five places worse than the norm; the 13th-ranked club gets pick 10, the 12th club pick 12; it will be difficult to rise up the ladder quickly on the back of picks eight, 10 and 12.
To put those numbers in perspective, let's use the 2004 draft as a hypothetical model. The 14th team — which could have picked Lance Franklin or Ryan Griffen (the Western Bulldogs picked Griffen at No. 3), ends up with John Meesen, the 13th team with Chris Egan. Neither Meesen nor Egan made it at the club that drafted them.
There's another nasty sting in this Gold Coast business, too: The new club will have picked off 12 elite 17-year-olds at the end of this year, several of whom would otherwise be early draft picks in 2010. The currency of mid-range picks, thus, is already devalued.
The upshot is that the Gold Coast's entry will represent a form of draft penalties for the clubs that finish down the ladder. No one wants to be in that 12th-to-16th bracket in that period (priority picks remain intact). It won't quite as bad as Carlton's draft penalties for salary cap rorts, from which it has only just recovered, but it will really hurt, and could turn coyote ugly for the clubs that finish down in both 2010 and 2011 if west Sydney gets the nod for 2012.
Now, while it's dangerous to speculate about which clubs will be in the cellar this year, much less next, has anyone considered the ramifications to the national competition of the Swans finding themselves in severe recession in 2010?
You have to admit this is probably the perfect time for us to finish last. As stupid as that sounds.
Even a team that is deprived of a key player will receive significant draft compensation, and no club can lose more than one uncontracted player. So if the Saints lost Nick Riewoldt — who'd be 28 by then — it would dent them in the short term, but they'd get a decent draft pick in return.
But what fate awaits the teams that happen to be bottoming out when the new club is coming in? Here, the numbers are terrifying. The wooden-spooner, normally rewarded with the prized first pick in the national draft, would get pick four.
The 15th-placed side, which might be just as bad as the 16th, will receive pick six. That might produce a champion, but it's far less likely to provide one than the usual entitlement of pick No. 2.
Arguably the worst places to finish, however, are from 12th to 14th. The club that finishes 14th would receive only draft pick No. 8 — a full five places worse than the norm; the 13th-ranked club gets pick 10, the 12th club pick 12; it will be difficult to rise up the ladder quickly on the back of picks eight, 10 and 12.
To put those numbers in perspective, let's use the 2004 draft as a hypothetical model. The 14th team — which could have picked Lance Franklin or Ryan Griffen (the Western Bulldogs picked Griffen at No. 3), ends up with John Meesen, the 13th team with Chris Egan. Neither Meesen nor Egan made it at the club that drafted them.
There's another nasty sting in this Gold Coast business, too: The new club will have picked off 12 elite 17-year-olds at the end of this year, several of whom would otherwise be early draft picks in 2010. The currency of mid-range picks, thus, is already devalued.
The upshot is that the Gold Coast's entry will represent a form of draft penalties for the clubs that finish down the ladder. No one wants to be in that 12th-to-16th bracket in that period (priority picks remain intact). It won't quite as bad as Carlton's draft penalties for salary cap rorts, from which it has only just recovered, but it will really hurt, and could turn coyote ugly for the clubs that finish down in both 2010 and 2011 if west Sydney gets the nod for 2012.
Now, while it's dangerous to speculate about which clubs will be in the cellar this year, much less next, has anyone considered the ramifications to the national competition of the Swans finding themselves in severe recession in 2010?
You have to admit this is probably the perfect time for us to finish last. As stupid as that sounds.
