Geelong: 2014 Season Preview

[Partridge]

just needs to try and take his average hit-outs tally to somewhere around 20 per game and he would have matched Trent West in that area while doing a little more around the ground (more marks, assists, tackles, clearances) while being 4 years younger with superior upside too

That would be tremendous. Vardy has only managed 20 hitouts in a game once so it shows it takes a while to get to that point. Only trouble is his average is under 11 right now so it might not occur this year.

 

[Partridge]

Mind you his disposal efficiency and agility is amazing for someone still learning the game. As he finds his role I expect he will be a mid-teens possession winner, pinch-hitting in the ruck. It means HMac can afford to drift forward more and not have to work back so hard.

If either Simpson or McIntosh aren't playing that's fine. I can't see how they can make all three work though. It certainly won't be our best side.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Wasn't talking about Vardy so unsure why you felt the need to bring him into the conversation but nonetheless, in West's first 22 league matches he averaged 15 hit-outs so he's certainly got time to improve.

For their first 22 games:

Trent West
Year 1 (2008) - Average time on ground = 53.2%; average hitouts = 6.17
Year 2 (2009) - Average time on ground = 47%; average hitouts = 16
Year 3 (2010) - Average time on ground = 62.7%; average hitouts = 12.2
Year 4 (2011) - Average time on ground = 78.8%; average hitouts = 20.3
Year 5 (2012) - Average time on ground = 85%; average hitouts = 23

Mark Blicavs
Year 1 (2013) - Average time on ground = 80.8%; average hitouts = 10.8

As soon as the rules came in that generally meant West had to spend at least three quarters of the game on the ground (the rules which Blicavs has played with for his entire career, incidentally), he immediately averaged 20+ hitouts a game. It had as much to do with the sub rule as anything to do with him developing as a ruckman.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

MC Extra Dollop, how many years experience had West had before jumping upto 20 hit-outs per game in 2011/2012?

How many rucks played alongside West during the 2011/2012 season?
I can tell you right now that he spent a large chunk of 2012 rucking by himself...
2011 - rd17, rd18, rd20
2012 - rd2, rd4, rd5, rd6, rd7, rd14, rd16, rd17, rd18, rd21, rd22, EF

So if Mark Blicavs were to spend the next couple of years in the VFL as a ruck, play the odd senior game here or there and then come into the senior line up for the start of the 2016 season, you don't think his output would be similar to that of Trent West's?

No I don't. And I think it would be an absolute waste for him to focus on being a ruckman for anything other than substitute relief, or if injuries force Geelong's hand. I don't think he will ever average anywhere near 20 hitouts a game, nor do I think he should aspire to that.

West played his first game of 2011 alongside Vardy. I'm not sure why that would be considered as West rucking by himself, while Blicavs playing alongside Vardy in the 2013 finals would not be considered the same. 11 of the 12 games you have mentioned from the 2012 season were after West's 22nd game and are therefore irrelevant to the discussion. So, three games out of 22.

Crap!
We had no bloody ruck stocks because Ottens had retired in 2011 while Simpson and Vardy were injured and the only bloke left was a guy with similar attributes to West, slow, inexperienced player with very limited skills-set needed at the top level.

You were talking about West's '...first 22 league matches'. That encompasses a grand total of two games from 2012.

 

[Partridge]

Wasn't talking about Vardy so unsure why you felt the need to bring him into the conversation but nonetheless, in West's first 22 league matches he averaged 13 hit-outs so he's certainly got time to improve.

Because you mentioned getting 20 hitouts a game. Because Vardy played in the ruck with Blicavs last year, and by most opinions is probably rated higher (as a ruckman). The point is getting to those numbers won't be done straight away. It'll take time, which is an absolutely reasonable expectation.

 

[Partridge]

well happily disagree with you two on this one. Facts are, West took years before he finally started averaging the 20 hit-outs per game, he offered very little on top of that once he broke into the starting line-up and that was eventually his undoing which led to his departure.
Blicavs has played one season, averaged 11 hit-outs per game (a couple games where he did gather 20 hit-outs) and unlike West, has played every one of those matches alongside another ruckman.

Twist it around however you like Dollop...using rule changes or time on the ground percentiles, your boy was a ready-made player who was called up to effectively play as the no.1 ruckman at Geelong which helped attribute his hit-out averages.

Your boy? I love the either/or mentality on this board sometimes. If you like one player, damn it you have to hate the other!

Anyway, we get to wait and see if Blicavs can lift his hitout averages to that level. Or he even gets the chance to do so.

 

[Partridge]

that's kind of the reason why I used the term 'your boy' as he said he has a soft spot for the guy.

Fair enough. I didn't want to see him go either. However the corpse can now be danced on.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Twist it around however you like Dollop...using rule changes or time on the ground percentiles, your boy was a ready-made player who was called up to effectively play as the no.1 ruckman at Geelong which helped attribute his hit-out averages.

You were comparing the players' first 22 games. Trent West was not Geelong's number one ruckman in 19 of his first 22 games. And if you can't understand how the substitute rule changed the role of the second ruckman, along with the time that he needed to spend on the ground, forever, then I'm not going to waste time trying to explain it to you.

19 ruckmen played 11 or more games in 2013 and averaged more than 20 hitouts. And there were only four sets of teammates that did so: Kreuzer and Warnock (played together five times in 2013), Ryder and Bellchambers (played together 13 times), Pyke and Mumford (played together 22 times) and Cox and Naitanui (played together 11 times).

Chances are, if you're playing as a ruckman in the AFL in the post sub-rule/interchange cap era and you're averaging 20 hitouts a game, your regular ruck partner probably isn't. And my bet is, if Blicavs is playing for Geelong as a ruckman, he's not going to average 20 hitouts any time soon. Nor would I want him to. His long-term value is not as a ruckman.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

exactly, all I did was compare the two players after 22 games. Your the one who has then gone on to talk about the rule changes, the time on ground and whatever various other excuses you can find to help suit your argument.

Pretty tough to get hitouts when you're not on the ground. It's not an 'excuse'; it's pretty basic logic.

I'll stand by what I said, Trent West averaged 13 hit-outs in his first 22 games of football (you corrected me on this as it was actually 15 hit-outs per game). Mark Blicavs has averaged 11 hit-outs in his first 22 games of football. I believe Blicavs will not only up his averages this year but he will also become a more valuable footballer than what West was at Geelong due to his ability to play a number of different roles as well as helping out the team when it comes to general play around the ground.

He's going to spend more time in the ruck and more time around the ground? Well, if he can do that, I will be impressed.

 

[Partridge]

I'll stand by what I said, Trent West averaged 13 hit-outs in his first 22 games of football (you corrected me on this as it was actually 15 hit-outs per game). Mark Blicavs has averaged 11 hit-outs in his first 22 games of football. I believe Blicavs will not only up his averages this year but he will also become a more valuable footballer than what West was at Geelong due to his ability to play a number of different roles as well as helping out the team when it comes to general play around the ground.

In time perhaps. There's little evidence he can play other roles right now. What do you think those other roles will be eventually?

 

[Partridge]

wing/forward/defender/ruck.

Already been playing extended minutes in defense this year while also playing on the wing. Have yet to see him go into the ruck as often as he was last year nor have I seen him play as a key forward either so maybe we see him get a go in that position at some point against North Melbourne if he plays.

To be honest I've expected more time in the ruck. For his own good I hope they don't get carried away with the versatility thing. He needs to be given one role and be allowed to develop in that. We've seen with plenty of others - Hawkins in 2010, Brown recently - being constantly shuttled between positions during development doesn't necessarily help.

 

[Partridge]

yeh but I don't think they know what he is either?
He could become one of the competitions best taggers if he was able to add more offense to his game and then he has the agility to also play from a wing, sweeping backwards and forwards between both 50's using that gut running factor. Needs to add more marks to his game though...that would make him accountable to the opposition if he began taking 5 marks per game.

Problem is though he's shown no aptitude defensively at all yet. Which is what you'd expect. There's no way he'll be tried in that role unless he can give an indication he can actually do it.

 

[Partridge]

no one thought Lonergan could become the defender he is today after being drafted as a quality forward. Blicavs has hardly had a chance to show us what he can produce if switched onto a tall forward either. Not suggesting he'd be an automatic star but he's got all the physical attributes to keep a forward in check imo.

He's not strong enough yet. He's got a big frame but he's still pretty lean up top.

If Blicavs is going to be trialled as a key defender fine, but not in the seniors. I'm starting to worry the club don't actually know what to do with him.

 

[David the Cat]

At the moment it looks like they like him on a wing…..