Pivo
Brownlow Medallist
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Usually around this time of the year (i.e. AFL Draft Time) thejester produces a Draft Preview for the board (if anyone hasn't read one previously, trust me, they are really good).
Unfortunately this year life has gotten in tj's way and he isn't able to produce one for 2015.
So, to borrow heavily from Willo_'s "interviews" idea, I thought we'd try and do something along the same lines focussing on this year's draft.
Joining me in this potential House-of-Cards-falling-down discussion are; Budda 230, Farmer2Goggin, GHS33, meto, Turbocat & year of the cat. Pure_Ownage (who also has something way more important going on in his life right now) also makes a cameo appearance.
We began this at the start of the week with a healthy amount of trepidation but, all things considered, I believe it hasn't turned out too badly.
I'm not too sure if it is any more insightful than a couple of the other draft threads on the board but, if nothing else, it shows what happens when a bunch of people get together and discuss something they enjoying gas-bagging about.
The proof will be in the pudding as to whether the rest of the board enjoys it too.
Also, due to the volume I've decided to break this out over a couple of entries.
Pivo: Probably my favourite journo on all things draft related is Emma Quayle. In a recent article she wrote"...if next week's draft had feelings, you would want to give it a hug. All year long we've heard about how weak, shallow and ordinary it is. It's been a rough nine months..."
The perceived weakness of the draft seems as good a place as any to start off this discussion. What are people's thoughts on the 2015 talent pool?
year of the cat: I think it's weak in certain areas - namely mids and rucks which are two pretty important positions on the ground. I do though think there are potentially some handy players available later in the draft. Tall defenders seems to be one area with Weitering, Glass-Mccasker, Skinner, Smith and even Hartley and Firns. There appears to be quite good depth in comparison to previous years. Half back flankers too. There appears to be some very draftable flankers this year in my opinion.
Turbocat: 10lana had a stat approach to the concept of defining "weak" as games played.... another fantastic stat effort by the way.... but I do tend think the more stats we look for, the more criteria you have to define. Games played? How many good ones? How many games where the side lost or won? Basing strong drafts on the basis of games played ...surely GWS and GC have shown there must be more to it than games played. Games played when drafted to a strong club compared to a poor one?
Traditionally inside ball winning mids are the best bet for R1 picks... was it a year with less mids?
My general feel is strong and weak drafts may have something to do with how many players clubs think will make the grade...and how many can quickly come to hand. Why do rucks seem to slip... general consensus is they take a long time to develop ...so why use an early pick on a player that may take 3-5 years before they are of use. Players can up and leave in 2 years if they don't get games.
So I guess my assessment on this years draft is uneducated but I suspect that there is talent post 30, maybe even post 60 but it's greener..or it has more obvious flaws. If Wells thinks there is talent, I tend to think "who am I to doubt him?"
GHS33 : I think it's perceived as weak mainly because the draft just has no depth. I think the top 20 is still quite good but there are probably more question marks over the top 20 prospects this year e.g. Mathieson's running ability, lack of games from Burton and Curnow, etc.
The real issue is that past the top 20 the talent really falls away.
Farmer2Goggin: I guess footy is a comparison industry so key planks like the Draft are bound to get caught up in that process. As others have identified the consensus is 2015 is shallow as depth beyond pick 20 is seen as weaker than prior years.
The other benchmark is the quality of the Champs which, certainly from a WA perspective, featured some underwhelming footy. Whilst this is an indicator of talent, other variables such as coaching have a role to play in that. At the end of the day it's the volume of players who stay in the system playing good footy from any given draft year that defines its worth.
Late picks can be a lottery at the best of times so will be interesting how 2015 shapes up with players picked post #20 against other drafts.
Budda 230: I've said it a few times on Twitter before, but I don't feel that "weak" is the correct way to describe this draft. On my own personal list, there is definitely a drop off in confidence around the 30 mark. That doesn't mean the draft is necessary weak though.
From that point on I feel there are numerous types who possess high ceilings, but they aren't perceived as safe like the top 30 odd. The likes of Greg Clark, Redman, de Bruin, Aidyn Johnson, Snadden, Nyuon, Jeffs, Lachlan Walker, Chol, Parsons, Markov etc all fit under this category for different reasons.
Recruiters appear far more focused on safe bets these days, but Wells has proven in the past that the development of a once risky prospect can be the difference between a premiership squad or not. I'm feeling there is a boom or bust element after the more certain selections.
Attitude and development will end up being the deciding factor with these types, but I'm confident that there will be some good AFL footballers selected late in this draft. There is potential for big wins, which has me optimistic.
Pure_Ownage: I think its weak in some areas, as others have mentioned its terrible for rucks. Other than Flynn from the GWS Academy there are almost no rucks that enthuse me. In general I think the top 30 is good quality albeit not a heap of star quality. Outside the top 30 its relatively weak but I still think you can get some decent role players or guys who have small flaws that, if ironed out, will be good.
year of the cat: Turbocat, going back to my earlier comment I think that this draft is particularly weak in quality midfielders. As midfielders represent the bulk of a team's playing list it stands to reason that not as many picks will be taken in this years draft.
I still maintain that there should be some useful players still around by the time we go to call. Skinner, Tahana, Ferreira, Doedee, Crocker, Tiziani, Firns, Mountford, Jeffs, Hewett, Parsons, Dylan Smith, Cornell and Mutimer are some names that have been touted to go late that I'd be very comfortable drafting.
Budda 230: I like the look of Jeffs, he's a little unusual being 192cms although still uses the ball well inside, looks a good mover and mark. Quite lean but surprisingly comes in at 81kg.
Schoenfeld from WA also looks to be a good mover who plays smart footy. A couple with the late picks?
Farmer2Goggin: In terms of sliders Jordan Snadden may come into contention. AIS kid who had a fantastic 2014 but disappointed in 2015. However, I know he's had hip issues this season which hampered him.
He's around 190cm, penetrating left foot and although lean he's got broad shoulders and his Dad is quite solid - will end up a good size.
Excelled in 2014 where his ability to accumulate possession around the contest and break away was eye catching. Quite a tough kid as well and never hesitated to put his head over the footy. Has similarities to Murdoch but not as fast. Very polite boy from a good family.
He did test well at the combine so that may have put him back on the radar.
Budda 230: He is definitely one who has some scope. A few have jumped off him after he produced disappointing televised Champs games, but he was good earlier in the competition. His athletic traits are very underrated and as you said, he certainly has a frame to work with.
It would have been nice to see him return to East Fremantle Colts after the Champs, tear some games apart and earn senior selection. He was solid, but I think everyone was expecting more.
Farmer2Goggin: Yeah, quite true buddha 230. Bennett was another who didn't progress after a BOG performance in game 1 v SA.
I think the plan was to play Snadden and Bennett in the Seniors but they went with Perry, Barone, Jack Cripps and, I think, Strnadica.
Barone was on track to be drafted in 2014 but missed the year with an ACL done in the preseason.
Perry and Barone are extremely hard at it but have size against them.
PIVO: Well, since we're discussing potential players, which is what this is all about, do people think we'll target any particular type of player or will Wells simply look at the best available?
Turbocat: Probably has a couple of types they would like to tick off but generally just get some late picks with the best chance of making it.
Farmer2Goggin: Ideally we should be looking at a genuine small forward and small/medium defenders I would have thought. Reality is that with our late picks we'll probably go with best available - IMO that cuts off at 195cm though - we have enough giants on the list!
GHS33: I think we will look at medium and tall defenders if we go needs based. I really don't understand the love affair with small forwards, I don't think genuine small forwards are essential for successful team.
In the next 2-3 years we'll lose Enright, Lonergan and Mackie to retirement. I understand we have Thurlow, Bews, Kolo and Henderson but if they are best 22 then we have no further depth back there.
I also think there's a glut of medium defenders in this draft that we might nab e.g. Fraser Pearce, Stephen Tahana, Brandon White, Tom Doedee, Reuben William, etc.
Turbocat: Farmer2Goggin... think we have enough over 195cm? I think if a good young KPD was available we would have to consider, not to mention we have delisted 2 true rucks...are we happy with Read and Lucey? Perhaps if the right player is there above 195cm... although I do agree we have a lot of height, but maybe too much of the same type?
How Vardy/Clark/Stanley/Henderson/Taylor fit in the side will test us. Does this mean trade pressure later on? Or perhaps Clark is already considered an unlikely regular.
And GHS33, you have named a few I like...I like Tom Glen, he showed some speed at the Combine...looks like he could do that role.
Pivo: I must admit, I'd still look for a key defender myself (yes, again). I know we just brought in Henderson but in the short term he may well be used forward. Lonergan finishes at the end of '16 while Taylor is looking a bit more inconsistent. Kolodjashnij was obviously a good get and I know we have Delaney waiting in the wings but I still wouldn't mind another young, key defender if there is one worthwhile taking late, someone like Firns or Thompson (both Oakleigh boys) are a couple I don't mind. Although Thompson is a bit more of a swingman type.
There seems to be more (and better) mid-sized, running types available late though (not really a surprise). We'll end up with a couple of these I think simply due to the fact they are the best remaining on the board. These types may well come out of SA and WA too.
year of the cat: I'm a bit with GHS33. I think we'll take advantage of the numbers of both tall and medium defenders presumably available late in this draft. With Lonergan retiring at the end of this year and Taylor now at the back end of his career we need to be looking to add another KPD to complement Kolodjashnij and Henderson. I'd love Glass-McCasker but he'll likely be gone. Skinner is another that really appeals but I'm not sure we'll go for a player coming off an ACL. Dylan Smith would probably be my next pick.
Medium defenders again should be well represented at the arse end of the draft. I can see Wells taking at least one and maybe even two if he takes a best available policy here. Tahana really appeals to me - he looks like he has scope to play further up the ground as well. Doedee is the other I'd love to see called. Looks tough, disciplined and great overhead. Foot skills are pretty good too.
Assuming we do take 4 players my fourth would be a toss up between Mountford, Crocker, Tiziani, Hewett and Jeffs. Would be comfortable with any of these. Dan Houston is another bottom aged kid that looks quite good but I haven't seen much of him.
Pure_Ownage: Generally Wells is best available and multi positional, high character but I wonder whether our picks won't be more needs based because they are so late.
I am not sure that we need KPDs but definitely we need a small defender. Tahana would be great if he got through.
Small forwards may become less important with the interchange cap if clubs rest mids forward more but it's too early to tell.
I wonder if we might also take a mature age player late in the ND or Rookie Draft. We have 34 senior listed including Luxford and Cunico who are raw while Menzel and McCarthy have injury question marks. While I think our best 28 or so is as good as any of the top 4 sides post trade week we lack depth past that. If we took a 20-21 year old who could play early as we did with Stokes and Taylor and Egan it wouldn't surprise me.
Farmer2Goggin: Yeah Turbocat, that may have been a bit tongue in cheek but we can't possibly fit all the talls in the best 22 if they are all available (unlikely as that is based on history). I think Blicavs skews the height perception quite a bit, particularly if we play him in the midfield - even though he and Stanley looked fantastic together VS the Power.
If Smith rucks that leaves Hawkins, Clark, Vardy and Stanley as tall forwards/2nd ruck. Tall defenders then become Lonergan, Taylor, Kolodjashnij (can play on smalls as well) and Henderson. Phew, that's big.
Looks like our VFL side will have some quality at times. Will be interesting to see what Wells comes up with.
Turbocat: Still, drafting is not really about current best 22. I think we have an over supply now but apart from Kolodjashnij, not much in the way of tomorrow.
Unfortunately this year life has gotten in tj's way and he isn't able to produce one for 2015.
So, to borrow heavily from Willo_'s "interviews" idea, I thought we'd try and do something along the same lines focussing on this year's draft.
Joining me in this potential House-of-Cards-falling-down discussion are; Budda 230, Farmer2Goggin, GHS33, meto, Turbocat & year of the cat. Pure_Ownage (who also has something way more important going on in his life right now) also makes a cameo appearance.
We began this at the start of the week with a healthy amount of trepidation but, all things considered, I believe it hasn't turned out too badly.
I'm not too sure if it is any more insightful than a couple of the other draft threads on the board but, if nothing else, it shows what happens when a bunch of people get together and discuss something they enjoying gas-bagging about.
The proof will be in the pudding as to whether the rest of the board enjoys it too.
Also, due to the volume I've decided to break this out over a couple of entries.
Pivo: Probably my favourite journo on all things draft related is Emma Quayle. In a recent article she wrote"...if next week's draft had feelings, you would want to give it a hug. All year long we've heard about how weak, shallow and ordinary it is. It's been a rough nine months..."
The perceived weakness of the draft seems as good a place as any to start off this discussion. What are people's thoughts on the 2015 talent pool?
year of the cat: I think it's weak in certain areas - namely mids and rucks which are two pretty important positions on the ground. I do though think there are potentially some handy players available later in the draft. Tall defenders seems to be one area with Weitering, Glass-Mccasker, Skinner, Smith and even Hartley and Firns. There appears to be quite good depth in comparison to previous years. Half back flankers too. There appears to be some very draftable flankers this year in my opinion.
Turbocat: 10lana had a stat approach to the concept of defining "weak" as games played.... another fantastic stat effort by the way.... but I do tend think the more stats we look for, the more criteria you have to define. Games played? How many good ones? How many games where the side lost or won? Basing strong drafts on the basis of games played ...surely GWS and GC have shown there must be more to it than games played. Games played when drafted to a strong club compared to a poor one?
Traditionally inside ball winning mids are the best bet for R1 picks... was it a year with less mids?
My general feel is strong and weak drafts may have something to do with how many players clubs think will make the grade...and how many can quickly come to hand. Why do rucks seem to slip... general consensus is they take a long time to develop ...so why use an early pick on a player that may take 3-5 years before they are of use. Players can up and leave in 2 years if they don't get games.
So I guess my assessment on this years draft is uneducated but I suspect that there is talent post 30, maybe even post 60 but it's greener..or it has more obvious flaws. If Wells thinks there is talent, I tend to think "who am I to doubt him?"
GHS33 : I think it's perceived as weak mainly because the draft just has no depth. I think the top 20 is still quite good but there are probably more question marks over the top 20 prospects this year e.g. Mathieson's running ability, lack of games from Burton and Curnow, etc.
The real issue is that past the top 20 the talent really falls away.
Farmer2Goggin: I guess footy is a comparison industry so key planks like the Draft are bound to get caught up in that process. As others have identified the consensus is 2015 is shallow as depth beyond pick 20 is seen as weaker than prior years.
The other benchmark is the quality of the Champs which, certainly from a WA perspective, featured some underwhelming footy. Whilst this is an indicator of talent, other variables such as coaching have a role to play in that. At the end of the day it's the volume of players who stay in the system playing good footy from any given draft year that defines its worth.
Late picks can be a lottery at the best of times so will be interesting how 2015 shapes up with players picked post #20 against other drafts.
Budda 230: I've said it a few times on Twitter before, but I don't feel that "weak" is the correct way to describe this draft. On my own personal list, there is definitely a drop off in confidence around the 30 mark. That doesn't mean the draft is necessary weak though.
From that point on I feel there are numerous types who possess high ceilings, but they aren't perceived as safe like the top 30 odd. The likes of Greg Clark, Redman, de Bruin, Aidyn Johnson, Snadden, Nyuon, Jeffs, Lachlan Walker, Chol, Parsons, Markov etc all fit under this category for different reasons.
Recruiters appear far more focused on safe bets these days, but Wells has proven in the past that the development of a once risky prospect can be the difference between a premiership squad or not. I'm feeling there is a boom or bust element after the more certain selections.
Attitude and development will end up being the deciding factor with these types, but I'm confident that there will be some good AFL footballers selected late in this draft. There is potential for big wins, which has me optimistic.
Pure_Ownage: I think its weak in some areas, as others have mentioned its terrible for rucks. Other than Flynn from the GWS Academy there are almost no rucks that enthuse me. In general I think the top 30 is good quality albeit not a heap of star quality. Outside the top 30 its relatively weak but I still think you can get some decent role players or guys who have small flaws that, if ironed out, will be good.
year of the cat: Turbocat, going back to my earlier comment I think that this draft is particularly weak in quality midfielders. As midfielders represent the bulk of a team's playing list it stands to reason that not as many picks will be taken in this years draft.
I still maintain that there should be some useful players still around by the time we go to call. Skinner, Tahana, Ferreira, Doedee, Crocker, Tiziani, Firns, Mountford, Jeffs, Hewett, Parsons, Dylan Smith, Cornell and Mutimer are some names that have been touted to go late that I'd be very comfortable drafting.
Budda 230: I like the look of Jeffs, he's a little unusual being 192cms although still uses the ball well inside, looks a good mover and mark. Quite lean but surprisingly comes in at 81kg.
Schoenfeld from WA also looks to be a good mover who plays smart footy. A couple with the late picks?
Farmer2Goggin: In terms of sliders Jordan Snadden may come into contention. AIS kid who had a fantastic 2014 but disappointed in 2015. However, I know he's had hip issues this season which hampered him.
He's around 190cm, penetrating left foot and although lean he's got broad shoulders and his Dad is quite solid - will end up a good size.
Excelled in 2014 where his ability to accumulate possession around the contest and break away was eye catching. Quite a tough kid as well and never hesitated to put his head over the footy. Has similarities to Murdoch but not as fast. Very polite boy from a good family.
He did test well at the combine so that may have put him back on the radar.
Budda 230: He is definitely one who has some scope. A few have jumped off him after he produced disappointing televised Champs games, but he was good earlier in the competition. His athletic traits are very underrated and as you said, he certainly has a frame to work with.
It would have been nice to see him return to East Fremantle Colts after the Champs, tear some games apart and earn senior selection. He was solid, but I think everyone was expecting more.
Farmer2Goggin: Yeah, quite true buddha 230. Bennett was another who didn't progress after a BOG performance in game 1 v SA.
I think the plan was to play Snadden and Bennett in the Seniors but they went with Perry, Barone, Jack Cripps and, I think, Strnadica.
Barone was on track to be drafted in 2014 but missed the year with an ACL done in the preseason.
Perry and Barone are extremely hard at it but have size against them.
PIVO: Well, since we're discussing potential players, which is what this is all about, do people think we'll target any particular type of player or will Wells simply look at the best available?
Turbocat: Probably has a couple of types they would like to tick off but generally just get some late picks with the best chance of making it.
Farmer2Goggin: Ideally we should be looking at a genuine small forward and small/medium defenders I would have thought. Reality is that with our late picks we'll probably go with best available - IMO that cuts off at 195cm though - we have enough giants on the list!
GHS33: I think we will look at medium and tall defenders if we go needs based. I really don't understand the love affair with small forwards, I don't think genuine small forwards are essential for successful team.
In the next 2-3 years we'll lose Enright, Lonergan and Mackie to retirement. I understand we have Thurlow, Bews, Kolo and Henderson but if they are best 22 then we have no further depth back there.
I also think there's a glut of medium defenders in this draft that we might nab e.g. Fraser Pearce, Stephen Tahana, Brandon White, Tom Doedee, Reuben William, etc.
Turbocat: Farmer2Goggin... think we have enough over 195cm? I think if a good young KPD was available we would have to consider, not to mention we have delisted 2 true rucks...are we happy with Read and Lucey? Perhaps if the right player is there above 195cm... although I do agree we have a lot of height, but maybe too much of the same type?
How Vardy/Clark/Stanley/Henderson/Taylor fit in the side will test us. Does this mean trade pressure later on? Or perhaps Clark is already considered an unlikely regular.
And GHS33, you have named a few I like...I like Tom Glen, he showed some speed at the Combine...looks like he could do that role.
Pivo: I must admit, I'd still look for a key defender myself (yes, again). I know we just brought in Henderson but in the short term he may well be used forward. Lonergan finishes at the end of '16 while Taylor is looking a bit more inconsistent. Kolodjashnij was obviously a good get and I know we have Delaney waiting in the wings but I still wouldn't mind another young, key defender if there is one worthwhile taking late, someone like Firns or Thompson (both Oakleigh boys) are a couple I don't mind. Although Thompson is a bit more of a swingman type.
There seems to be more (and better) mid-sized, running types available late though (not really a surprise). We'll end up with a couple of these I think simply due to the fact they are the best remaining on the board. These types may well come out of SA and WA too.
year of the cat: I'm a bit with GHS33. I think we'll take advantage of the numbers of both tall and medium defenders presumably available late in this draft. With Lonergan retiring at the end of this year and Taylor now at the back end of his career we need to be looking to add another KPD to complement Kolodjashnij and Henderson. I'd love Glass-McCasker but he'll likely be gone. Skinner is another that really appeals but I'm not sure we'll go for a player coming off an ACL. Dylan Smith would probably be my next pick.
Medium defenders again should be well represented at the arse end of the draft. I can see Wells taking at least one and maybe even two if he takes a best available policy here. Tahana really appeals to me - he looks like he has scope to play further up the ground as well. Doedee is the other I'd love to see called. Looks tough, disciplined and great overhead. Foot skills are pretty good too.
Assuming we do take 4 players my fourth would be a toss up between Mountford, Crocker, Tiziani, Hewett and Jeffs. Would be comfortable with any of these. Dan Houston is another bottom aged kid that looks quite good but I haven't seen much of him.
Pure_Ownage: Generally Wells is best available and multi positional, high character but I wonder whether our picks won't be more needs based because they are so late.
I am not sure that we need KPDs but definitely we need a small defender. Tahana would be great if he got through.
Small forwards may become less important with the interchange cap if clubs rest mids forward more but it's too early to tell.
I wonder if we might also take a mature age player late in the ND or Rookie Draft. We have 34 senior listed including Luxford and Cunico who are raw while Menzel and McCarthy have injury question marks. While I think our best 28 or so is as good as any of the top 4 sides post trade week we lack depth past that. If we took a 20-21 year old who could play early as we did with Stokes and Taylor and Egan it wouldn't surprise me.
Farmer2Goggin: Yeah Turbocat, that may have been a bit tongue in cheek but we can't possibly fit all the talls in the best 22 if they are all available (unlikely as that is based on history). I think Blicavs skews the height perception quite a bit, particularly if we play him in the midfield - even though he and Stanley looked fantastic together VS the Power.
If Smith rucks that leaves Hawkins, Clark, Vardy and Stanley as tall forwards/2nd ruck. Tall defenders then become Lonergan, Taylor, Kolodjashnij (can play on smalls as well) and Henderson. Phew, that's big.
Looks like our VFL side will have some quality at times. Will be interesting to see what Wells comes up with.
Turbocat: Still, drafting is not really about current best 22. I think we have an over supply now but apart from Kolodjashnij, not much in the way of tomorrow.
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