Geelong weakness/improvement
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Improvement
Definitely fitness - The team generally and Steve Johnson, Wojinski and Nathan A in particular. Think there is further upside with Selwood, Varcoe and (in particualr) Hawkins to build further fitness (although Hawkins really is a year away from being AFL match fit)
Injuries - (cross fingers) Ottens impact over last 6 weeks (and King out) has played more part in the wins than a lot of people would credit
Mooney - no suspension
Speed - Whilst not as good as the Dogs - Think Wojinski more game time plus Varcoe, Tenace has added more pressure.
Better forward pressure - partly as result of speed (refer above) but also good second effort skills (Nathan and Varcoe make up for their low possession stats in this area).
Game plan - more confidence. Few more set plays, especially with mid field slipping down ground to kick easy goals.
Weaknesses
Footskills are the big weakness, not just in the senior team but also in the 2nds. (This has the added problem that Hawkins and other forwards in the VFL take longer to develop because only 50% of kicks actually get to a spot that they develop contesting skills). The problem with footskills is that they have to be recruited, you can only make small imporivements in training, IMO. We are getting away with poor footskills at the moment due to fantastic mid field work rate, however a couple of injuries/tiredness/better opposition tagging/flooding will expose this.
Opposition - Small forwards - still miss a pacy/strong defender who can take on the Johnsons, Williams
In all - things are looking very good. Strong/expereinced/deep/confident list - I think we can give it a shake, although we will need to maintain the high possession rate/low injuries for most of the season and definitely throughout the final series.
Definitely fitness - The team generally and Steve Johnson, Wojinski and Nathan A in particular. Think there is further upside with Selwood, Varcoe and (in particualr) Hawkins to build further fitness (although Hawkins really is a year away from being AFL match fit)
Injuries - (cross fingers) Ottens impact over last 6 weeks (and King out) has played more part in the wins than a lot of people would credit
Mooney - no suspension
Speed - Whilst not as good as the Dogs - Think Wojinski more game time plus Varcoe, Tenace has added more pressure.
Better forward pressure - partly as result of speed (refer above) but also good second effort skills (Nathan and Varcoe make up for their low possession stats in this area).
Game plan - more confidence. Few more set plays, especially with mid field slipping down ground to kick easy goals.
Weaknesses
Footskills are the big weakness, not just in the senior team but also in the 2nds. (This has the added problem that Hawkins and other forwards in the VFL take longer to develop because only 50% of kicks actually get to a spot that they develop contesting skills). The problem with footskills is that they have to be recruited, you can only make small imporivements in training, IMO. We are getting away with poor footskills at the moment due to fantastic mid field work rate, however a couple of injuries/tiredness/better opposition tagging/flooding will expose this.
Opposition - Small forwards - still miss a pacy/strong defender who can take on the Johnsons, Williams
In all - things are looking very good. Strong/expereinced/deep/confident list - I think we can give it a shake, although we will need to maintain the high possession rate/low injuries for most of the season and definitely throughout the final series.
M. Scarlett - pacy/strong/can take on the players mentioned
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Disagree, disagree, not good enough. Sorry for the grumps, just came back from a bike ride, I'm f***in' freezing and I've stalactites growing in my sinuses.
Fugsy's signature line springs to mind here: "Geelong's defenders; accountable, attacking, short. Choose two." Though we've some of the best talls and mediums in the league, I agree with LIH that we're lacking a dependable small defender. Having 5 or 6 very good options on a Jukebox play-list does little for me, as it suggests none are really good enough, especially as most bags kicked against us in our losses come from players <185 cms*. I want to be able to examine an opposition's list and know exactly who I'd like to see marking their best small forward, without compromising Scarlett or Harley.
* At the risk of emulating Mark Stevens, players to kick >2 goals in our losses:
This year = B. Johnson 8, M Williams 3, B Harvey 3.
Last year = C Brown 3, M Williams 3, R Murphy 3, B Hall 4, Schneider 4, L Davis 4, Swan 4, Rocca 4, Tarrant 3, Hyde 4, Pettifer 3, Simmonds 3, Stenglein 3, Burton 5, Riccuito 5, N Thompson 4, Gehrig 3, Yze 3 (Draw), M Williams 8, Crawford 3.
Only 6 of the 23 "bags" kicked were by players over 188 cms.
Another weakness, and I'll admit I'm nitpicking, is Key Position Depth.
Yet to be exposed thanks to a superb run of health and the removal of Loris' ammonium packets from the shower-heads. Select our 3 best forwards and 3 best defencemen, then play pooh sticks with the remaining deadwood floating about in our VFL side. Our starting KPs are all sleeping soundly at night, free from selection pressures, and there's an unhealthy reliance on Big Daddy Mooney thanks to the youthful inconsistency of Nathan & the Tomahawk. Should Cam go down....
Other teams are similarly lacking in tall talent, but at least their replacement "ins" are developing players who will benefit from time spent in the firsts, not football corpses on the verge of interment. Unfortunately after the broom sweeps the cupboard clean at season's end, our new VFL side will be filled with rangy twigs a couple of winters shy from sprouting, and ready replacements will be scarce. This could potentially sabotage a year in which you'd expect us to again be challenging for the flag. Grima's promotion should be strongly looked at to fill the gap, and I'll be watching Lonergan's hopeful development with interest. Best o' luck to Tommy this weekend too, I can't chomp into a bit of steak & kidney pie without remembering his collision.
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Wow.
You should be a selector with such stunning insight........
NO wonder no -one likes the swans when they have the support of morons such as yourself.......
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Geelong always looks good when we run in numbers and tackle and our skills have been better this year.
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I don't see this as a problem; actually I think it will be a big improvement. Personally I would be very happy if Ottens wasn't part of our forward line and spent all his time rotating off the bench with Blake. He plays his best football as a ruckman, I'd love to see him there fulltime. Hawkins becoming a permanent member is only going to improve matters. I don't see a forward line containing Mooney, Nathan Ablett and Hawkins as too top heavy either, as the first two are very mobile for their size and I think Hawkins in a year or so will be fine.
I would imagine our starting 6 in a year or so being 3 talls (as above), 1 medium in Johnson and 2 crumbers - Chapman, Stokes, Varcoe etc. To me that looks a very good combination.
Agree vehemently with Stripey PJs and others. Ability to handle the quick small forward always worries me. The stats shown in that post show it all. You just know that when you play the dogs Johnson will kick a bag, v hawks williams, etc etc. Its the only thing (well almost) thats keeping me up at night at the moment.
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Would be great at the Dome but seems a little top heavy for some conditions (like North & Hawthorn games).
I'd prefer it how it is with Ottens only going forward when there was a matchup we can exploit such as the one we got against Adelaide this week.
From a list management point of view I think our highest priorities should be for another ruckman and another key position backman. Grima may be an option for the later position.
Aside from those I would just be taking the best talent available with skill and leg speed.
With Hawkins development next year we are finally blessed with a trio of fantastic tall forwards that will be the envy of the competition in a couple of years. Hopefully Djerkurra will become a hard, pacy midfielder that we could also do with.
It will be interesting to see whether both Gamble and Owen are able to get a game next year. Either may end up being earmarked to eventually replace Milburn. Just can't see them playing forward unless SJ gets injured.
Aside from those I would just be taking the best talent available with skill and leg speed.
With Hawkins development next year we are finally blessed with a trio of fantastic tall forwards that will be the envy of the competition in a couple of years. Hopefully Djerkurra will become a hard, pacy midfielder that we could also do with.
It will be interesting to see whether both Gamble and Owen are able to get a game next year. Either may end up being earmarked to eventually replace Milburn. Just can't see them playing forward unless SJ gets injured.
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Afterwards I wondered whether the KP dominated goal-kicking chart was disguising a counter-intuitive truth in today's footy; a pattern that more smalls on the field = more smalls kicking 'bags' in rotation. So to put Geelong in context, not isolation, I examined other teams with a comparable defence over the same period of time (firstly in terms of points conceded, secondly win/loss ratio) and shifted the height requirement to >186 cms to define mediums like Robbo and Rhino as non-smalls. I'll mention when taller 'small' forwards and midfielders bagged.
Geelong: increased to 7 of 23, or %30 (includes Yze in a draw.)
Collingwood: 10 of 23, or %43 (includes Judd & Yze.) Interestingly, no talls kicked bags without Clement.
Fremantle: 11 of 22, or %50.
St Kilda: 17 of 26, or %65 (includes Judd & Ling.)
Not the most exhaustive approach, but it does confirm that Geelong's ratio isn't following a league trend.
(Also, we're not losing because a star like Scarlett plays poorly.)
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sorry Stripey, but WTF???
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LOL, sorry gang! It's an addendum to my last post (page 2) where I was arguing we needed a specialist small defender.
A little paracetamol: the number on the right is the total number of instances opposition players have kicked more than 2 goals during a team's losses in '06 and '07; in Geelong's case 23.
The number on the left is how many of those players were over 186 cms; only 7 against the Cats, the rest being smalls.
Because our tall and medium defenders are so good, the opposition scores largely through their small forwards. If we had an accountable small of quality we'd be able to restrict their scoring even further. Currently it's an area of weakness.
If Brisbane beat us tomorrow, it's more likely to be through the boot of Ash McGrath than J Brown.
A little paracetamol: the number on the right is the total number of instances opposition players have kicked more than 2 goals during a team's losses in '06 and '07; in Geelong's case 23.
The number on the left is how many of those players were over 186 cms; only 7 against the Cats, the rest being smalls.
Because our tall and medium defenders are so good, the opposition scores largely through their small forwards. If we had an accountable small of quality we'd be able to restrict their scoring even further. Currently it's an area of weakness.
If Brisbane beat us tomorrow, it's more likely to be through the boot of Ash McGrath than J Brown.
