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good article with good analysis
From the Herald Sun.
Here's hoping old Kane is right on 2 fronts... saints to make the 8 and Hawks to fall.
AFL 2017 predictions: Kane Cornes says it will be the year of the Giants
KANE CORNES, adelaidenow
December 20, 2016 10:30am
KANE Cornes gives his predictions for the 2017 AFL season and says it’s a make or break year for his former coach.
WHO WILL BE HOT?
GIANTS
The preliminary final loss against the Bulldogs will be a blessing that will drive the players through their pre-season. The core group is in the prime age bracket and has played enough footy together to galvanise the group.
The addition of Brett Deledio during the trade period makes their forward half even more potent. The Giants have the best list in the competition and it would be a shock if they aren’t running out on Grand Final day in 2017.
BULLDOGS
The premiers have the most depth in the competition, with 33 players on the list having played 10 games or more in the past two seasons. As we saw in 2016, they can cover injuries to key players better than any side in the AFL.
The lack of key defenders is compensated by a revolutionary defensive system that has the players cover dangerous space on the ground rather than be exposed in one-on-one match-ups. The addition of Travis Cloke (Collingwood) and the return of Stewart Crameri (ASADA suspension) gives the forward line more power and depth. If 2016 was a fairytale, imagine what 2017 will be with captain Robert Murphy included in the premiership 22.
SYDNEY
Despite losing key midfielder Tom Mitchell to Hawthorn during the trade period, the 2016 grand finalist will be a dangerous match-up again in 2017. The midfield is intimidating, with new skipper Josh Kennedy, Dan Hannebery and Luke Parker in their prime.
Isaac Heeney is one of the best young midfielders in the competition and, having just signed a new contract until 2022, he is free from distraction. Rising Star winner Callum Mills will improve again and you can pencil in Lance “Buddy’’ Franklin for another 70 goals next season. The Swans are rated as the second-best list in the competition by Champion Data and it’s easy to see why.
ST KILDA
After narrowly missing the finals in 2016 with 12 wins, the Saints should finish in the top eight for the first time since 2011. The midfield depth was strengthened during the trade period with the additions of Jack Steele (GWS) and Koby Stevens (Western Bulldogs) and the return of Jake Carlisle (ASADA suspension) will shore up the backline.
Young key forwards Josh Bruce and Tim Membrey combined for 82 goals last year in a forward line that is no longer reliant on Nick Riewoldt. St Kilda’s playing list is primed to play finals in 2017.
MELBOURNE
Melbourne is also likely to break its 10-year finals drought in 2017. New coach Simon Goodwin has an excellent platform for sustained success at the Demons. The club has made the most of its first-round draft picks in recent years as well as adding depth and experience.
Jess Hogan is the focal point in the forward line and is capable of kicking 70 goals, while the underrated Oscar McDonald, 21, will hold down a key defensive post for the next 10 years. The young on-ball brigade, led by Jack Viney, 23, is tough and competitive, while Nathan Jones, Jordan Lewis and Bernie Vince add leadership and experience.
WHO WILL NOT?
NORTH
Three consecutive years of finals football at North Melbourne is about to come to an end. After winning the first nine games in 2016, the club has been on a steep decline on the field. It also forced four of the club’s champions into retirement, triggering a rebuild of the playing list. The midfield has grunt and contested ball winners but lacks leg speed and dangerous ball users. Besides Ben Brown and Lindsay Thomas, it’s hard to see where the goals will come from. It’s is going to be a bumpy ride.
BRISBANE
The Lions are at the beginning of a total rebuild. The first agenda item for first-year coach Chris Fagan will be to create a culture and a set of standards his players can live by.
Despite having the worst list in the competition, the Lions players need to show a consistent effort that was clearly lacking in 2016. Captain Tom Rockliff must let his actions do the talking in 2017 and be free from excuses and constant whingeing. This one will take years to turn around.
COLLINGWOOD
On paper, Collingwood has a list capable of playing finals. Its midfield - led by skipper Scott Pendlebury and supported by Steele Sidebottom and Adam Treloar – can be scintillating but the side’s lack of defensive action was notable in 2016.
Forwards Alex Fasolo and Darcy Moore are capable of winning games off their own boot but their durability has been poor. The loss of key defenders Nathan Brown (St Kilda) and Jack Frost (Brisbane) will also prove costly. Bucks, the pressure is on.
HAWTHORN
It’s hard to mount a case for the Hawks in 2016. Alastair Clarkson was brutal during the trade period and said goodbye to multiple premiership winning midfielders Sam Mitchell (West Coast), Jordan Lewis (Melbourne) and Brad Hill (Fremantle) in an attempt to rejuvenate his engine room.
Tom Mitchell (Sydney) is a good pick-up but the Hawks will be far too reliant on Jaeger O’Meara, who joined from Gold Coast but hasn’t played a game in two years and in still on a restricted training program. Key forward Tyrone Vickery was signed from Richmond as a free agent but, after eight years in the AFL, he is yet to prove he is good enough. I’m predicting a finish outside of the top eight for the first time since 2009.
RICHMOND
The most scrutinised team in the competition was again disappointing in 2016, winning only eight games. Under-fire coach Damien Hardwick needs a finals berth to save his job at the Tigers. The midfield looks stronger with the additions of Dion Prestia (Gold Coast) and Josh Caddy (Geelong) during the trade period, while Tigers veteran Brett Deledio parted ways to join GWS.
The Tigers’ top end has been strong for some time, led by the best defender in the game, Alex Rance, gun on-baller Dustin Martin and key forward Jack Riewoldt. But the core group of players has stagnated. Richmond will find it difficult to find multiple avenues towards goal next year and the lack of stars coming through is a concern.
PLAYERS ON THE RISE
OLLIE WINES
After a slow start to 2016, the captain-in-waiting finished the season with 30 disposals or more in five out of the last six games. He stormed home to finish second in Port’s best and fairest behind winner Robbie Gray. His ability to win the contested football and dispose of it by hand is freakish and, at 22, he is ready to take the competition by storm.
JAKE LEVER
Adelaide’s pick 14 in the 2014 draft secured Lever in what has turned out to be a masterstroke by club recruiters. Still only 20, Lever averaged 7.3 intercept possessions per game in 2016, which ranks him in the elite category. His composure under pressure cannot be taught. Look for him to play with increased confidence in 2017, winning more possession and flying for more aerial contests.
PETER WRIGHT
At 20 and 203cm, the Gold Coast forward nicknamed “Two Meter Peter” burst on to the scene in 2016, kicking 27 goals from 17 games. His height and vertical leap provide a nightmare match-up for the opposition defence. His partnership with new skipper Tom Lynch is the envy of all AFL rivals and will be potent this season.
JOE DANIHER
The high-marking forward kicked an impressive 43 goals in 2016 under difficult circumstances. At 22, his 201cm frame has matured and, with a host of experienced players returning to the Bombers in 2017, Daniher can play with some freedom. His goalkicking technique is the only flaw in his game.
CHRISTIAN PETRACCA
The Melbourne youngster was made to wait until round six of 2016 for his AFL debut after a knee reconstruction ruined his first year at AFL level. He spent the majority of his 17 games across half-forward, kicking 12 goals. Will clearly benefit from more midfield minutes this season, with his breakaway speed and power his strength. Has been likened to Patrick Dangerfield. Look out.
PLAYERS ON THE SLIDE
SCOTT THOMPSON
The 33-year-old was desperate to extend his remarkable career into a 17th season. With some coaching demands added to his playing requirements, it won’t be unusual to see Thompson rested in favour of younger teammates.
ANDREW MACKIE
The triple Geelong premiership player averaged just 18 disposals in 2016, his lowest return since 2006. At 32, his outstanding career is nearing the end.
BRENDON GODDARD
Set to play his 300th game in round 11, the current Essendon captain has had a frustrating four years since moving from St Kilda, having only played in one final at the Bombers. Goddard has suffered from being played in multiple positions and hasn’t managed to make one his own.
DALE THOMAS
The former Magpie is four years into a five-year $3.5 million contract at the Blues in what could be the worst free-agency signing in AFL history. Thomas was once considered the best player in the competition by a rival coach but injury and poor form have crushed his career.
DANIEL WELLS
Collingwood took a massive risk and signed the former Kangaroo on a three-year lucrative contract in the 2016 trade period. Has played just 31 games in the past three seasons and has already suffered an injury setback this pre-season. At his best he is a matchwinner but he will be 32 in February and it wouldn’t be a shock if his body lets him down again.
NEW KIDS ON THE BLOCK
SAM POWELL-PEPPER
Selected by Port Adelaide at pick 18 the exciting midfielder has the body and will power to feature early in the season and have an impact.
BEN AINSWORTH
Gold Coast selected the exciting small forward with pick four in the draft, will play senior footy in 2016 and feature in many highlights reels for years to come.
HUGH McCLUGGAGE
Rated by many as the best player in the draft the Brisbane Lions jumped at him when he was still available at pick three. Classy midfielder who pushes forward and kicks goals.
WILLIE RIOLI
Hard not to get excited about the cousin of Cyril. Plucked from Glenelg by West Coast at pick 52 he looks an automatic selected in the Eagles best six forwards. Has had his issues with weight over his short journey but the AFL environment is just what he needs. He is deadly by foot.
TIM ENGLIGH
Selected by the Western Bulldogs at pick 19 the 205cm giant was rated as the best ruckman in the draft. Will take some time to develop but has been likened by many to eagle’s legend Dean Cox.
WILL ESSENDON BOUNCE BACK?
I see the Bombers finishing between 9th and 14th in season 2016 with talk of them playing finals next year premature. It’s difficult to know how the twelve returning players with cope after missing 12 months of football. Picking up the speed of the game, adapting to the physical requirements and dealing with the latest tactics all a challenge. Expect a fast start to season 2016 before tiring and fading away in the latter half of the year.
FIVE COACHES UNDER PRESSURE
DAMIEN HARDWICK
A total restructure of the football department gives Hardwick a host of new assistant coaches in 2017. The Tigers recruited for immediate success during the trade period and have put a playing-list rebuild on hold. Anything but a return to finals in 2017 will be fatal … unfortunately the playing list isn’t good enough.
KEN HINKLEY
Entering his fifth year as Port Adelaide coach Hinkley would be one coach demanding improved output from an underperforming playing group. The return of ruckman Paddy Ryder will finally give his midfielders an even run at the stoppages in 2017. Hinkley will need to tinker with his game style this season as opposition scores from Power turnovers in 2016 were catastrophic. He is up for the fight.
NATHAN BUCKLEY
Buckley knows its finals or bust in 2017, he admitted so in a frank radio interview during the 2016 season. The Pies have topped up with mature players Daniel Wells (Kangaroos) and 28 year old forward Chris Mayne (Fremantle) in a last bid to find the missing link. Buckley will have to find a coaching system that restricts the opposition from scoring heavily if he wants to keep his job at Collingwood.
ROSS LYON
The 2015 minor premiers suffered a staggering fall from grace in 2016 winning only four games. Off-field indiscretions and poor player behaviour have marred the Dockers start to pre-season, placing more pressure on the veteran coach. Fremantle recruited exceptionally well in the off-season and with Brownlow medallist Nat Fyfe returning from injury the Dockers will be expected to push back into the eight in 2017.
RODNEY EADE
The Suns were the big winners in the 2016 trade period and have undergone a mini list rebuild. Four picks inside the top 10 at this years draft should secure the future of the playing list. Blessed with strong key position players and a host of players returning from injury Eade will be expected to significantly improve on the six wins his side delivered in 2016
