Mega Thread General MFC Discussion Part III

[jhong]

What does everyone think Clarkson could do with us if he coached our team?

Won’t happen , but I am sure he would have no problem dropping players for being lazy campaigners .

 

[Grimesy87]

If anyone wants to know why we've gone so to shit, from a statistical viewpoint

We were averaging 90ppg over first 12 weeks, down to 69ppg last 7 weeks #4 to #14

15ppg drop off in scores from stoppage (59-44) #1 to #12

Goal accuracy 46% down to 37.5% (league worst)

Goal per inside 50 23.7% to 17.9% (17th)

Kick inside 50 retention 49.4 to 46.1 #4 to #11

AFL app stats

Also exiting defensive 50 10% less per match via boundary.

So this isn't just mindset from the miss not wanting to defend better. This is a drop off right across the board, or almost a change in style. To change exit 50 direction by that much is huge. We averaged 51 inside 50s against over first 12 weeks, that number has gone to 53.5 since the Collingwood loss. Our average I/50 has gone from 54 (which includes 2x46 results in wins over Syd/dogs) down to 52 over that time.

Also getting out tackled in that time. There have been theories that Burgess teams tend to have lull patches in middle of season, but I don't buy that. We are continuing to defend fairly low scores against, the past 2 weeks have been a lot higher than season averaelge. But when you are inaccurate, you don't get a break in between and that is incredibly taxing with our style of play.

So in summary, we can't win the ball as much, we aren't scoring as much, and we are allowing teams to enter inside 50 easier.

So in my best David King voice "they are ****ed"

 

[Topkent]

If anyone wants to know why we've gone so to sh*t, from a statistical viewpoint

We were averaging 90ppg over first 12 weeks, down to 69ppg last 7 weeks #4 to #14

15ppg drop off in scores from stoppage (59-44) #1 to #12

Goal accuracy 46% down to 37.5% (league worst)

Goal per inside 50 23.7% to 17.9% (17th)

Kick inside 50 retention 49.4 to 46.1 #4 to #11

AFL app stats

Also exiting defensive 50 10% less per match via boundary.

So this isn't just mindset from the miss not wanting to defend better. This is a drop off right across the board, or almost a change in style. To change exit 50 direction by that much is huge. We averaged 51 inside 50s against over first 12 weeks, that number has gone to 53.5 since the Collingwood loss. Our average I/50 has gone from 54 (which includes 2x46 results in wins over Syd/dogs) down to 52 over that time.

Also getting out tackled in that time. There have been theories that Burgess teams tend to have lull patches in middle of season, but I don't buy that. We are continuing to defend fairly low scores against, the past 2 weeks have been a lot higher than season averaelge. But when you are inaccurate, you don't get a break in between and that is incredibly taxing with our style of play.

So in summary, we can't win the ball as much, we aren't scoring as much, and we are allowing teams to enter inside 50 easier.

So in my best David King voice "they are f’ed"

Yup, people are a little deluded if they think we are just gonna click into gear again. First half of the year is irrelevant now because we aren't that team now.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Good post Grimsey and good work finding out the stats.

Id love to know our offensive efficiency levels across the board under Goody's complete reign of terror. (goal accuracy, scores per inside 50, kicks inside 50 retention etc) ...nothing but me guessing but id suggest it would be pretty much bottom 4 across all categories when it comes to anything attacking.

Like I said after his press conference on the weekend, the levels of delusion to suddenly expect a team who's been highly inefficient over the past 4 years to suddenly become efficient once September hits are amazing.

With the way we are currently playing it genuinely looks as tho we are trying turn every game into a 50/50. Ridiculous to think this is sustainable and something you'll rarely see out of premiership team. You need the ability to have easy kills.

I remember when we were praising Goody for in game adjustments earlier in the year. Some of that would come in handy right now, but he appears to be a coach drunk off points against and not willing to let that get out of hand under any circumstance.

Our system has been exposed. We are far too easy to play against.

Someone was asking what sort of differences Clarko can provide, an ability to change his spots, innovate and not be stuck on a particular mindset.

Something needs to change, high levels of doubt that it will.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

 

[schmuttt]

Is there any way to fix this though? Because honestly if we can’t think of a way to reverse it it becomes hard to put it on the coaches as laughable as that sounds. Have we over achieved so far this year?

 

[djpaulydemon]

OTC had some stats similar to those that Grimesy87 posted. One that struck me was "ball movement" being number 1 in the last 6 weeks. How do they determine that stat?

Ball movement has looked way worse, but is it simply metres the ball has moved in our possession? Feels like bombing it long has increased and intercepts are further back in our defence so that could explain it. Seems like a weird category if so.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Is there any way to fix this though? Because honestly if we can’t think of a way to reverse it it becomes hard to put it on the coaches as laughable as that sounds. Have we over achieved so far this year?

Backing the backline in one on one and levelling up at stoppages more often is an obvious way.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

OTC had some stats similar to those that Grimesy87 posted. One that struck me was "ball movement" being number 1 in the last 6 weeks. How do they determine that stat?

Ball movement has looked way worse, but is it simply metres the ball has moved in our possession? Feels like bombing it long has increased and intercepts are further back in our defence so that could explain it. Seems like a weird category if so.

Yea, didn't understand that either. Our ball movement has been utter shite. Id like someone to explain to me in detail what it actually means coz I don't understand it for the life of me.

 

[Grimesy87]

Good post Grimsey and good work finding out the stats.

Id love to know our offensive efficiency levels across the board under Goody's complete reign of terror. (goal accuracy, scores per inside 50, kicks inside 50 retention etc) ...nothing but me guessing but id suggest it would be pretty much bottom 4 across all categories when it comes to anything attacking.

Like I said after his press conference on the weekend, the levels of delusion to suddenly expect a team who's been highly inefficient over the past 4 years to suddenly become efficient once September hits are amazing.

With the way we are currently playing it genuinely looks as tho we are trying turn every game into a 50/50. Ridiculous to think this is sustainable and something you'll rarely see out of premiership team. You need the ability to have easy kills.

I remember when we were praising Goody for in game adjustments earlier in the year. Some of that would come in handy right now, but he appears to be a coach drunk off points against and not willing to let that get out of hand under any circumstance.

Our system has been exposed. We are far too easy to play against.

Someone was asking what sort of differences Clarko can provide, an ability to change his spots, innovate and not be stuck on a particular mindset.

Something needs to change, high levels of doubt that it will.

I mostly agree, but a couple of things.

2017 we were ranked 6th for scoring, 18 we were first. Defensively we were horrific though both years, and it cost us finals in 17 and top 4 in 18.

19 was a write off being terrible with both. 2020 we actually were statistically a lot better7th for scoring and 6th for scores against.

It's like the defensive fragilities were focused on since 17/18 so well, and it was evident most of 2020 that we were better defensively (only conceded 70 points in 4 games port, wce, Richmond and dogs) which taking into consideration of 20% game reduction, is a pretty good metric.

But back to your point of offensive failings, we have definitely robbed Peter to pay Paul. We were far from perfect, but we still found ways to score in 17/18. To an extent in 2019, we actually weren't far away taking percentage at 3/4 time. Our overall percentage was 78.9% but at 3/4 time this was 98.9%. this has taken a bit of research

Our goal accuracy has steadily decreased in that time. 2018 we went at 58.8% then 48.4%, 52.5% and down to 43.3% this year. That's alarming.

I'm doing **** all today, perhaps I'll break that down further because it's peaked my interest now too.

But I suspect that the biggest change in style is down to 1 thing. We are going forward into less dangerous positions to ensure opposition sides can't rebound 50 as easy and turn that into scoring opportunities. This is making our shots harder when we do retain it, or making a stoppage in attack hoping to score from stoppage. Shots on goal from stoppage are less accurate in general too.

 

[Grimesy87]

OTC had some stats similar to those that Grimesy87 posted. One that struck me was "ball movement" being number 1 in the last 6 weeks. How do they determine that stat?

Ball movement has looked way worse, but is it simply metres the ball has moved in our possession? Feels like bombing it long has increased and intercepts are further back in our defence so that could explain it. Seems like a weird category if so.

I'm not actually sure what that entails. Fox footy tend to use a range of different metrics to put together topics to suit their narrative. It's like using their pressure gauge during telecasts. They tried to explain it but it's so flawed. I like the idea of a pressure rating though.

It's an incredibly flawed metric, but our disposal efficiency has fallen from 73.8% over first 12 rounds, down closer to 68.5% since then. As flawed as disposal efficiency is as a stat, that's absolutely horrendous.

What I find equally as baffling, we have had less turnovers in every game since the Collingwood game.

 

[TheDarkDwarf]

I mostly agree, but a couple of things.

2017 we were ranked 6th for scoring, 18 we were first. Defensively we were horrific though both years, and it cost us finals in 17 and top 4 in 18.

19 was a write off being terrible with both. 2020 we actually were statistically a lot better7th for scoring and 6th for scores against.

It's like the defensive fragilities were focused on since 17/18 so well, and it was evident most of 2020 that we were better defensively (only conceded 70 points in 4 games port, wce, Richmond and dogs) which taking into consideration of 20% game reduction, is a pretty good metric.

But back to your point of offensive failings, we have definitely robbed Peter to pay Paul. We were far from perfect, but we still found ways to score in 17/18. To an extent in 2019, we actually weren't far away taking percentage at 3/4 time. Our overall percentage was 78.9% but at 3/4 time this was 98.9%. this has taken a bit of research

Our goal accuracy has steadily decreased in that time. 2018 we went at 58.8% then 48.4%, 52.5% and down to 43.3% this year. That's alarming.

I'm doing fu** all today, perhaps I'll break that down further because it's peaked piqued my interest now too.

But I suspect that the biggest change in style is down to 1 thing. We are going forward into less dangerous positions to ensure opposition sides can't rebound 50 as easy and turn that into scoring opportunities. This is making our shots harder when we do retain it, or making a stoppage in attack hoping to score from stoppage. Shots on goal from stoppage are less accurate in general too.

Fixed that for you, sorry, I've got fu** all to do today.

 

[Topkent]

I mostly agree, but a couple of things.

2017 we were ranked 6th for scoring, 18 we were first. Defensively we were horrific though both years, and it cost us finals in 17 and top 4 in 18.

19 was a write off being terrible with both. 2020 we actually were statistically a lot better7th for scoring and 6th for scores against.

It's like the defensive fragilities were focused on since 17/18 so well, and it was evident most of 2020 that we were better defensively (only conceded 70 points in 4 games port, wce, Richmond and dogs) which taking into consideration of 20% game reduction, is a pretty good metric.

But back to your point of offensive failings, we have definitely robbed Peter to pay Paul. We were far from perfect, but we still found ways to score in 17/18. To an extent in 2019, we actually weren't far away taking percentage at 3/4 time. Our overall percentage was 78.9% but at 3/4 time this was 98.9%. this has taken a bit of research

Our goal accuracy has steadily decreased in that time. 2018 we went at 58.8% then 48.4%, 52.5% and down to 43.3% this year. That's alarming.

I'm doing fu** all today, perhaps I'll break that down further because it's peaked my interest now too.

But I suspect that the biggest change in style is down to 1 thing. We are going forward into less dangerous positions to ensure opposition sides can't rebound 50 as easy and turn that into scoring opportunities. This is making our shots harder when we do retain it, or making a stoppage in attack hoping to score from stoppage. Shots on goal from stoppage are less accurate in general too.

I'd bet our goal innacuracy has dropped away simple because in 2018 we had Hogan and others who were kings of finding space in behind and strolling into open goals. Really feels like we don't kick alot of easy ones this year

 

[Topkent]

Thought I was on me pat Malone but went back and read and there was a few who agreed with me but 17 clubs right now are realising how bad a miss Stephenson is.
Kids a gun and Collingwood gave him away

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Thought I was on me pat Malone but went back and read and there was a few who agreed with me but 17 clubs right now are realising how bad a miss Stephenson is.
Kids a gun and Collingwood gave him away

I wonder who else agreed with you?

 

[ImissFrosty]

I wonder who else agreed with you?

i did

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

i did

Keep that up and you might be able to join our gang.

 

[ImissFrosty]

Keep that up and you might be able to join our gang.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

View attachment 1188423

Our pants are worn a bit lower than that.

 

[ImissFrosty]

Our pants are worn a bit lower than that.

 

[00Stinger]

what is the issue with us v Gold Coast not having a venue locked in yet?

 

[TheDarkDwarf]

Keep that up and you might be able to join our gang.

LOL, what a Gang!!

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

LOL, what a Gang!!
View attachment 1188498

Dwarfs aren't welcome in our gang.

 

[schmuttt]

I'd bet our goal innacuracy has dropped away simple because in 2018 we had Hogan and others who were kings of finding space in behind and strolling into open goals. Really feels like we don't kick alot of easy ones this year

I was thinking about this specifically with Kozzy. Small forwards are usually the kings of running into open goals but literally ALL his goals are medium to hard difficulty. Compare that to our last small forwards who was a scoring threat in Garlett and over half his goals were out the back.

On one hand it’s a good thing we as could score a lot more if we are brave enough but in the other hand it isn’t sustainable to work so hard to score.

 

[TheDarkDwarf]

Dwarfs Dwarves aren't welcome in our gang.

Fixed it for you!! LOL