Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 1

[thecatattack]

6yr 1mil

Love him but they can have him for that

 

[Kobe Gryant]

6yr 1mil

Love him but they can have him for that

CBA has given the salary cap a massive bump, there's an estimated 60 players on 1m+ next year alone, and that's without accounting for this year's trade period.

With inflation these days, at the supermarket 40 bucks is the new 20 bucks, and with the S/C bump, we'll see similar over the next couple years with player contracts.

It does look like an eye-sore if you're not accounting for that - but if you are - it's basically 750k over 6 years under the rules we're used to, which while still big money, looks a lot more reasonable.

For an example, Essendon knew this, and it's why McKay is on such ridiculous money for a player of his quality. When they're accounting for the bump, it actually looks pretty standard for market value.

The rumour mill is we're offering Smith 1m+, and that looks outrageous out of that context too...but if you account for the new rules, it might as well be 700-800k.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Geelong has a 4-year deal on the table for Max Holmes.

Holmes is expected to command rival deals worth near $1 million per year for a minimum of 6 years, per 9 News Melbourne.

It might send a couple hearts a flutter, but at the end of day, I'd be disappointed if our youngsters weren't in demand.

As long as he signs, we can just take it as a sign that we're doing the right thing.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

6yr 1mil

Love him but they can have him for that

Take into account the new cap. By 2025 it'll be 17.7m so 36% higher than it was when we signed Cameron for that. $1m is equivalent to $730k in 2020 dollars.

I would advise Holmes to sign a shorter deal because he could go higher by year 5

 

[CHAWKTS]

CBA has given the salary cap a massive bump, there's an estimated 60 players on 1m+ next year alone, and that's without accounting for this year's trade period.

With inflation these days, at the supermarket 40 bucks is the new 20 bucks, and with the S/C bump, we'll see similar over the next couple years with player contracts.

It does look like an eye-sore if you're not accounting for that - but if you are - it's basically 750k over 6 years under the rules we're used to, which while still big money, looks a lot more reasonable.

For an example, Essendon knew this, and it's why McKay is on such ridiculous money for a player of his quality. When they're accounting for the bump, it actually looks pretty standard for market value.

The rumour mill is we're offering Smith 1m+, and that looks outrageous out of that context too...but if you account for the new rules, it might as well be 700-800k.

I wish I was 20 again…and fit…and had talent….the possibilities!

 

[D BRIDGE]

6yr 1mil

Love him but they can have him for that

It’s overs.

His manager would have milked us nicely if we have to pay that much, but there will be plenty of demand for him if he continues doing what he did last week.

Usually guys stay for a little less so fingers crossed we are given that treatment.

Ultimately if the decision was to keep him for 1 mill a season or lose him for some non single figure draft pick… I’d take the keep him for a million every time (assuming he is looking the goods).

He is clearly our most dynamic young player, and we simply can’t be losing him imo.

He is the only true line breaker we have and guys like that are insanely hard to get.

He might just go god mode this year.

 

[STPer18]

Eye watering figures but just pay the boy!

P.S. I'd be shocking at managing our cap

 

[foxdog50]

I just saw this on a random Instagram, no idea if it's legit or not as 4 years seems pretty low.

Could see it being a starting position, then if he has a very good year we bump it to 5 years and up the amount too.

Still haven't heard anything from any AFL journos to that effect though.

Channel 9 reporting it

 

[foxdog50]

6yr 1mil

Love him but they can have him for that

Totally agree.. bloody heck 1 million a season ... Look his got Potential to be a star, but he needs to have a massive breakout year to be rewarded a Million dollars a season...

 

[Vdubs]

Never underestimate the power of a fresh start in a new environment.

I don't think anybody's naive enough to pretend every single player on our list is a cleanskin, but we certainly have a better environment both on and off the field than what Melbourne does.

If Smith's alleged trafficking to other Melbourne players is true, then it's no wonder someone like Clarry is in the position he's in; and it's highly unlikely he's the only one...he's just been the most public.

We only need to remember Mathew Stokes and his cocaine trafficking and possession. Good bloke, flag player, remorseful. This stuff happens in society and footy players have more $, more time, more access, more networking opportunities.

 

[Lana]

CBA has given the salary cap a massive bump, there's an estimated 60 players on 1m+ next year alone, and that's without accounting for this year's trade period.

With inflation these days, at the supermarket 40 bucks is the new 20 bucks, and with the S/C bump, we'll see similar over the next couple years with player contracts.

It does look like an eye-sore if you're not accounting for that - but if you are - it's basically 750k over 6 years under the rules we're used to, which while still big money, looks a lot more reasonable.

For an example, Essendon knew this, and it's why McKay is on such ridiculous money for a player of his quality. When they're accounting for the bump, it actually looks pretty standard for market value.

The rumour mill is we're offering Smith 1m+, and that looks outrageous out of that context too...but if you account for the new rules, it might as well be 700-800k.

Link to the CBA from 2023 to 2027

https://www.aflplayers.com.au/app/uploads/2024/01/2023-2027-Collective-Bargaining-Agreement-FINAL.pdf

Year	TPP	ASA	Total	Total relative to 2023
2017​	$ 12,445,028	$ 1,061,347	$ 13,506,375	82.91​
2022​	$ 13,538,993	$ 1,230,392	$ 14,769,385	90.66​
2023​	$ 15,022,778	$ 1,267,304	$ 16,290,082	100​
2027​	$ 18,440,415	$ 1,267,304	$ 19,707,719	120.98​

Year	Base wage	Max Yr2
2017​	$ 100,000	$ 272,000
2022​	$ 115,000	$ 277,000
2023​	$ 125,000	$ 292,000
2027​	$ 155,000	$ 364,000

At first glance there isn't that much movement that you could afford to throw a million a year to someone like Holmes. Wages will be quite positively skewed. To put Holmes on a million would put him in our top 3 or 4 players.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Link to the CBA from 2023 to 2027

https://www.aflplayers.com.au/app/uploads/2024/01/2023-2027-Collective-Bargaining-Agreement-FINAL.pdf

Year	TPP	ASA	Total	Total relative to 2023
2017​	$ 12,445,028	$ 1,061,347	$ 13,506,375	82.91​
2022​	$ 13,538,993	$ 1,230,392	$ 14,769,385	90.66​
2023​	$ 15,022,778	$ 1,267,304	$ 16,290,082	100​
2027​	$ 18,440,415	$ 1,267,304	$ 19,707,719	120.98​

Year	Base wage	Max Yr2
2017​	$ 100,000	$ 272,000
2022​	$ 115,000	$ 277,000
2023​	$ 125,000	$ 292,000
2027​	$ 155,000	$ 364,000

At first glance there isn't that much movement that you could afford to throw a million a year to someone like Holmes. Wages will be quite positively skewed. To put Holmes on a million would put him in our top 3 or 4 players.

It's a near 50% increase in TPP which is going predominantly to your best few players so I would expect that it would support such an increase. Holmes will likely be in our best 3-4 players by mid contract anyway

 

[geelong_crazy26]

It depends on his 2024.

If he's an AA again, it would suck to lose him, but similar to Holmes, we don't yet know what that looks like.

Losing Stengle & Holmes looks awful on paper, but losing them and getting the capital to acquire Smith & JUH or another elite name makes it look okay.

Even if we didn't do that, 3 first round picks over 2 years would be nice too, but I don't know if that's what we need right now.

3 or 4 years ago, sure...but we've got a pretty good group of kids now, we need stars approaching their prime (Like Stengle & Holmes).

It's good kids, good older players, and virtually nothing in-between. Losing those guys and gaining nothing experience wise doesn't help that.

From a mind set and belief pov i think what separates scott from other coaches is his absolute competitive drive to win...

Every season he goes in with the mantra we are going to win the premiership. From the get go this sets the standard for everyone involved from players through administration that we are here to achieve high standards.

Compare that to the mindset of a “rebuild” which we hear over and over again fron teams who fail repeatedly for a long time... What sort of mindset does “rebuild” install in a club??? It esentially says to everyone involved “we are ok with losing, we will succeed later”. Later is a losing mentality... Everyone just acclimatises in these places to a culture that is ok with losing in the moment.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

From a mind set and belief pov i think what separates scott from other coaches is his absolute competitive drive to win...

Every season he goes in with the mantra we are going to win the premiership. From the get go this sets the standard for everyone involved from players through administration that we are here to achieve high standards.

Compare that to the mindset of a “rebuild” which we hear over and over again fron teams who fail repeatedly for a long time... What sort of mindset does “rebuild” install in a club??? It esentially says to everyone involved “we are ok with losing, we will succeed later”. Later is a losing mentality... Everyone just acclimatises in these places to a culture that is ok with losing in the moment.

Well said.

I think often about the messaging to young players when they're not expected to win games now but instead win games later. When is later? Not this year I guess? That's ok. We're building...

 

[Catastrophe!]

Channel 9 reporting itView attachment 1926920

That was the same random Instagram post I found. Channel 9 linked, but no articles or any other journos picking up the story...nor any Channel 9 video segment that I can find.

Seems suspect to me.

 

[Lana]

Well said.

I think often about the messaging to young players when they're not expected to win games now but instead win games later. When is later? Not this year I guess? That's ok. We're building...

I think setting the right expectations is important, no one wants to pull a Malthouse. If you are shit because you are young then it is fine to have that attitude. As long as you are building towards something.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I think setting the right expectations is important, no one wants to pull a Malthouse. If you are s**t because you are young then it is fine to have that attitude. As long as you are building towards something.

Being shit is never the right development environment for young players though.

I remember early in Bomber's time when we were very young and not very good we often played really ugly footy where we overloaded the midfield. They turned into low scoring dour affairs. We were always a much better defensive side than attacking.

I reckon at least part of that was to keep us in games longer so we still played high intensity games even when we got beaten. Getting done 60-40 is likely better for your development than getting done 120-80 when the games over a fair way out.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Channel 9 reporting itView attachment 1926920

You know there's something odd about that insta account. They did a predicted best 23 for every club except is. I used them in the Fear Index thread. I messaged them to compete the set and do Geelong because I was getting mildly OCD about it and got nothing.

 

[CHAWKTS]

Link to the CBA from 2023 to 2027

https://www.aflplayers.com.au/app/uploads/2024/01/2023-2027-Collective-Bargaining-Agreement-FINAL.pdf

Year	TPP	ASA	Total	Total relative to 2023
2017​	$ 12,445,028	$ 1,061,347	$ 13,506,375	82.91​
2022​	$ 13,538,993	$ 1,230,392	$ 14,769,385	90.66​
2023​	$ 15,022,778	$ 1,267,304	$ 16,290,082	100​
2027​	$ 18,440,415	$ 1,267,304	$ 19,707,719	120.98​

Year	Base wage	Max Yr2
2017​	$ 100,000	$ 272,000
2022​	$ 115,000	$ 277,000
2023​	$ 125,000	$ 292,000
2027​	$ 155,000	$ 364,000

At first glance there isn't that much movement that you could afford to throw a million a year to someone like Holmes. Wages will be quite positively skewed. To put Holmes on a million would put him in our top 3 or 4 players.

And we need room to then pay “my man” Dempsey…oh…and Clarke….oh don’t forget COS…then go again for your man Miers…oops Stengle says hello… and Tanner and Henry(s)…

 

[Vdubs]

It’s overs.

His manager would have milked us nicely if we have to pay that much, but there will be plenty of demand for him if he continues doing what he did last week.

Usually guys stay for a little less so fingers crossed we are given that treatment.

Ultimately if the decision was to keep him for 1 mill a season or lose him for some non single figure draft pick… I’d take the keep him for a million every time (assuming he is looking the goods).

He is clearly our most dynamic young player, and we simply can’t be losing him imo.

He is the only true line breaker we have and guys like that are insanely hard to get.

He might just go god mode this year.

Wonder if his decision is based on capturing that elusive flag, and how close we are to delivering that. Another poor year and he might decide there is no hope of a flag in his career at Geelong. If we are flag winners or close, he may think it's worth staying.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Wonder if his decision is based on capturing that elusive flag, and how close we are to delivering that. Another poor year and he might decide there is no hope of a flag in his career at Geelong. If we are flag winners or close, he may think it's worth staying.

Even for you, this is next level pessimism. He's going into his 4th year FFS.

 

[CatRiot]

Channel 9 reporting itView attachment 1926920

Does 4 years take him to RFA or UFA?

 

[cats_09]

Does 4 years take him to RFA or UFA?

That could well depend on what the FA rules are at that time of Holmes next being out of contract

 

[cats_09]

Wonder if his decision is based on capturing that elusive flag, and how close we are to delivering that. Another poor year and he might decide there is no hope of a flag in his career at Geelong. If we are flag winners or close, he may think it's worth staying.

There's no guarantees of a flag at any club though - one just needs to look at GC & GWS with how they were apparently going to be the dominant teams for a decade after entering the league due to the talent they had at their disposal

And if a player is willing to club hop to look for that elusive flag, is that really the type of player you'd want at your club, versus the player wanting to put their head down & play their part in bringing success to their current club?

 

[geelong_crazy26]

There's no guarantees of a flag at any club though - one just needs to look at GC & GWS with how they were apparently going to be the dominant teams for a decade after entering the league due to the talent they had at their disposal

And if a player is willing to club hop to look for that elusive flag, is that really the type of player you'd want at your club, versus the player wanting to put their head down & play their part in bringing success to their current club?

Who is a coub in premiership contention these days??

If you go back to pre season 2021... Would have a single person with their crystal ball predicted melbourne, geelong, and collingwood would win the following 3 premierships?? Nope.

It is too tight and constantly changing the dynamics to predict with certainty