GFC ongoing rebuild

[year of the cat]

I've been a bit critical of some of the choices we've made in the past few years at the ND but I think Wells pretty much nailed it last Friday. I felt this season that our youth depth was below par. That we may have been on the edge of a cliff (may have used that term a couple of times..).

Anyway, enough of that. I've put together a list of our youth in zones to see where we are currently at. Where our deficiencies may lie. Most of it is probably pretty obvious.

I've used an age of under 25 as the basis for the list. I reckon that is a reasonable age to use. Players normally if they are playing at 25 have established themselves but have a number of years left in the game.

TALL BACKS:

Gardner, 20
House, 22
Kolodjashnij, 22

SMALL/MEDIUM BACKS:

Thurlow, 23
Bews, 23 (nearly 24)
Z.Guthrie, 19
T.Stewart, 24
Mark O'Connor, 20

MIDFIELDERS:

Parfitt, 19
Cockatoo, 21
Constable, 18
Fogarty, 18
Narkle, 20 (in 4 days)
Cunico, 21
T.Kelly, 23

TALL FORWARDS:

Buzza, 21
Ratugolea, 19

SMALL/MEDIUM FORWARDS:

L.McCarthy 24
Parsons, 20
Gregson, 21
Miers, 18
Hayball, 20
S.Simpson, 19
Jack Henry, 19
Jamaine Jones, 19


RUCKS:

nil

As you can see in pure numbers we seem to be quite well equipped now after the latest draft for midfielders and small/med forwards. We have a relatively small collection of small/med backs but what is perhaps comforting is that 4 of the 5 have played senior footy and appear to be equipped to continue for a number of years.

Funnily enough, even though many have complained that we "play too tall a team" (me being at the front of that march), we really are a bit bereft of quality tall options all over the ground. We don't have one ruckman under 25 (I didn't realise that Abbott was 26).

Our young tall backs are thin on quality. The jury is well and truly out on our young tall forwards too.

If I look into a crystal ball I'd say that Wells will go for predominantly talls at the next couple of drafts. It's certain that H.Taylor will retire at the end of next season and I'd say, of the talls, that the likes of Stanley, Black and possibly House will need to show a bit in 2018 to justify another contract. You'd also assume that Gregson and McCarthy will need to get on the park next year to also stay on the list. Horlin-Smith looks very vulnerable as does Cunico. That's 8 players named there that need to perform. Particularly when you consider that the 2018 draft crop is considered one of the best ever. We may look, like many teams I assume, to take at least 5-6 picks next year, possibly more.

 

[cynical]

It's a pretty shocking list for under 25s.

Hope we draft well over the next few years.

If I was building a list I'd be looking at young talls and rucks, then mids and then fill the gaps with the rest. I guess the reality is we wont be getting those quality talls until we drop down the ladder.

 

[BotsMaster]

Could you please add the age of each player in the list year of the cat?

 

[year of the cat]

Could you please add the age of each player in the list year of the cat?

Done. You can see that we have a hell of a lot of kids between 19-21. Only 1 that's 24 (though Bews turns 24 in December).

 

[year of the cat]

It's a pretty shocking list for under 25s.

Hope we draft well over the next few years.

If I was building a list I'd be looking at young talls and rucks, then mids and then fill the gaps with the rest. I guess the reality is we wont be getting those quality talls until we drop down the ladder.

I suppose it's too be expected from a team that has played finals all but one year since 2004. But I agree that we need to add more young talent. What we really need to find is a couple of elite kids. I think we have a crop of reasonably talented types but no one player screams to me that they can become a "best 20 player of the competition".

Talls and rucks are a real concern. Hopefully we can draft a couple of decent ones next year.

 

[goyoucatters]

It's a pretty shocking list for under 25s.

Have you done a commensurate list at all the other clubs to objectively evaluate just how 'shocking' it really is?

Hope we draft well over the next few years.

Certainly.

Much like we appear to have done in '16, given the rise of numerous players from that group to this year's senior team. With two of them (and, if you include Zuth, three) actually being clearly inside our best 22 by the time of the finals.

And the (very early) consensus on our '17 choices is that we appear to have done remarkably well, considering our lowly draft position for yet another year.

So hopefully our '18 draft choices can continue a recent pattern of seemingly finding players who are likely to figure in senior selection discussions from quite early on in their careers with us.

If I was building a list I'd be looking at young talls and rucks, then mids and then fill the gaps with the rest.

Of course. And you would imagine that the GFC sees that next year's reputedly bumper draft would be a very good place to start with just that agenda.

I guess the reality is we wont be getting those quality talls until we drop down the ladder.

It is fairly clear that the club has no interest in heading down the ladder for draft picks. So I think the acquisition of quality talls will be primarily sought through the avenues of trade and free agency. Both of which have served us fairly well in recent times.

 

[BotsMaster]

Done. You can see that we have a hell of a lot of kids between 19-21. Only 1 that's 24 (though Bews turns 24 in December).

And as always Mark O'Connor remains a mystery

 

[Spazz Cat]

Wonder if we'll go hard at Lynch. If Taylor and Stanley retire/delisted next year we could maybe swing the cash. I dunno.
If not I wonder how we'll get into the "superdraft"?
Blitz, Guthrie, Menegola, Thurlow could/should be trade bait if they don't perform that well.

 

[STPer18]

Also Tim Kelly (23) to add even more to the midfield.

 

[year of the cat]

Wonder if we'll go hard at Lynch. If Taylor and Stanley retire/delisted next year we could maybe swing the cash. I dunno.
If not I wonder how we'll get into the "superdraft"?
Blitz, Guthrie, Menegola, Thurlow could/should be trade bait if they don't perform that well.

I doubt too many clubs will be prepared to trade out of the first round next year. Unless we could get a similar FA compensation to what we enjoyed with Motlop leaving (not sure we have anyone we’d want to part with that would give us anything of value anyway) then I’m not sure how we take to the draft anything other than one first rounder.

 

[year of the cat]

Also Tim Kelly (23) to add even more to the midfield.

Cheers. Fixed.

 

[Majunga]

Best chance to find some quality talls in the draft without having high end picks is in a
bumper year, as many clubs will target the best mids first and a few top grade talls, hopefully
allowing a number of good prospects to slide, seems the logical way to go about it.

I don't think we will be throwing 1-1.5mil a year at Lynch jmo.

 

[Turbocat]

year of the cat
I like and agree with most of it...
Im not sure how we can get access to the best tall talent if we are as successful as we hope to be.. so whether we draft talls or not ... im not sure .. but we have placed a lot of trust in the talls we have..and as you say they are all are thin on pre-selection quality.
If one could say that quality afl player is made up of a percentage of talent and a percentage of development .. we have really loaded our list with something like a 40/60.. where alternatively.. if we could access the early talent talls it might be 60/40. Maybe we can break the paradigm and get something from Sav or Buz. ..if not we may have to trade for someone.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

I've been a bit critical of some of the choices we've made in the past few years at the ND but I think Wells pretty much nailed it last Friday. I felt this season that our youth depth was below par. That we may have been on the edge of a cliff (may have used that term a couple of times..).

Anyway, enough of that. I've put together a list of our youth in zones to see where we are currently at. Where our deficiencies may lie. Most of it is probably pretty obvious.

I've used an age of under 25 as the basis for the list. I reckon that is a reasonable age to use. Players normally if they are playing at 25 have established themselves but have a number of years left in the game.

TALL BACKS:

Gardner, 20
House, 22
Kolodjashnij, 22

SMALL/MEDIUM BACKS:

Thurlow, 23
Bews, 23 (nearly 24)
Z.Guthrie, 19
T.Stewart, 24
Mark O'Connor, 20

MIDFIELDERS:

Parfitt, 19
Cockatoo, 21
Constable, 18
Fogarty, 18
Narkle, 20 (in 4 days)
Cunico, 21
T.Kelly, 23

TALL FORWARDS:

Buzza, 21
Ratugolea, 19

SMALL/MEDIUM FORWARDS:

L.McCarthy 24
Parsons, 20
Gregson, 21
Miers, 18
Hayball, 20
S.Simpson, 19
Jack Henry, 19
Jamaine Jones, 19


RUCKS:

nil

As you can see in pure numbers we seem to be quite well equipped now after the latest draft for midfielders and small/med forwards. We have a relatively small collection of small/med backs but what is perhaps comforting is that 4 of the 5 have played senior footy and appear to be equipped to continue for a number of years.

Funnily enough, even though many have complained that we "play too tall a team" (me being at the front of that march), we really are a bit bereft of quality tall options all over the ground. We don't have one ruckman under 25 (I didn't realise that Abbott was 26).

Our young tall backs are thin on quality. The jury is well and truly out on our young tall forwards too.

If I look into a crystal ball I'd say that Wells will go for predominantly talls at the next couple of drafts. It's certain that H.Taylor will retire at the end of next season and I'd say, of the talls, that the likes of Stanley, Black and possibly House will need to show a bit in 2018 to justify another contract. You'd also assume that Gregson and McCarthy will need to get on the park next year to also stay on the list. Horlin-Smith looks very vulnerable as does Cunico. That's 8 players named there that need to perform. Particularly when you consider that the 2018 draft crop is considered one of the best ever. We may look, like many teams I assume, to take at least 5-6 picks next year, possibly more.

Not sure Parsons should be solely seen as a small forward. Wasn't recruited as such and didn't exclusively play as such in the VFL. To me it seems like he's played there in 2017 out of necessity. Doesn't mean he will or should going forward.

Wonder if we'll go hard at Lynch. If Taylor and Stanley retire/delisted next year we could maybe swing the cash. I dunno.
If not I wonder how we'll get into the "superdraft"?
Blitz, Guthrie, Menegola, Thurlow could/should be trade bait if they don't perform that well.

One of those is not like the others.
Very very harsh to list Menegola in that group. He had a good season. 6th in the B&F and it's bloody baffling to see some question his position in the side.
He's cemented his place in our team.

 

[Spazz Cat]

Not sure Parsons should be solely seen as a small forward. Wasn't recruited as such and didn't exclusively play as such in the VFL. To me it seems like he's played there in 2017 out of necessity. Doesn't mean he will or should going forward.

One of those is not like the others.
Very very harsh to list Menegola in that group. He had a good season. 6th in the B&F and it's bloody baffling to see some question his position in the side.
He's cemented his place in our team.

If others go past him though this year it would be a good trade for us.
Got him for nothing and you'd think we'd get something ok for him.

 

[cynical]

Have you done a commensurate list at all the other clubs to objectively evaluate just how 'shocking' it really is?

I did last year and none of our already good kids stood up to become very good players (they are injured). Stewart, Parfitt and Zuthrie all had good years but they have quite a few steps to go before being very good players.

Most other clubs have a few very good players who are under 25 as well as potentially good. We only have potentially good at this stage and most of those have question marks.

It is fairly clear that the club has no interest in heading down the ladder for draft picks. So I think the acquisition of quality talls will be primarily sought through the avenues of trade and free agency. Both of which have served us fairly well in recent times.

The club needs to drop down, we at least need 2 good KPFs and a good ruck.

Losing prelims isnt what I'd consider a success. You might get the odd serviceable tall from free agency or from trading but you are very unlikely to get a very good KPF or ruck.

 

[year of the cat]

Not sure Parsons should be solely seen as a small forward. Wasn't recruited as such and didn't exclusively play as such in the VFL. To me it seems like he's played there in 2017 out of necessity. Doesn't mean he will or should going forward.

For the purposes of the exercise I put him in as a medium forward as that’s where he’s played his senior footy to this stage. But you are correct, he really could ultimately end up playing in a range of positions - wing or as a running half back are two that are possibilities.

 

[Turbocat]

For the purposes of the exercise I put him in as a medium forward as that’s where he’s played his senior footy to this stage. But you are correct, he really could ultimately end up playing in a range of positions - wing or as a running half back are two that are possibilities.

A bit like a comment I made about Narkle recently .. I thought he had played that role is a junior but was assured by Nakia that he played a mid role .... yet can anyone see him pushing into our midfield? Most players have to use these less key roles as entry to the side. ..and we have lacked in have options available.. so Parsons came in to the side in that FP/high forward role.
As you have mentioned we have added a lot of talent ..to stay in the side he will have to add more to his game .. spots are like hens teeth this year.. most players will be under the pump.

 

[Turbocat]

One of those is not like the others.
Very very harsh to list Menegola in that group. He had a good season. 6th in the B&F and it's bloody baffling to see some question his position in the side.
He's cemented his place in our team.

If the crux of the comment is we will trade Menegola to get picks for the super draft...then id say its just plain wrong. The list is evolving.. and recent additions will continue to put pressure on players .. but out of that group mentioned ..Thurlow is the one who for a start has to get into the side... and would probably appeal to another club. Unfortunate part of adding talent is that other players do fall away.. I doubt Menegola would be one at this stage.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

If others go past him though this year it would be a good trade for us.
Got him for nothing and you'd think we'd get something ok for him.

That’s just putting the cart before the horse though. A lot of if’s here.
It’s a catch 22 though. If he has a shit year and players go past him then who would want to trade for him? Has a good year with us then why would we want to trade him?

 

[Hamingja]

IMO Menegola will always be in the gun for his spot. If we move to a more balanced side with genuine small forwards for example then his spot is in danger for sure. You have to remember how impressive he was when he came back from injury in his first year yet he started this season behind GHS in the pecking order so the club are not as hot on him as the supporters.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

The club needs to drop down, we at least need 2 good KPFs and a good ruck

Absolute piffle.

 

[Ratcat]

I've been saying we're far to small and the list is unbalanced but everyone bar a few keep raving we're to tall.?
A few on here are totally obsessed with the small theme. We have a plethora of small players.

 

[goyoucatters]

I did last year and none of our already good kids stood up to become very good players (they are injured). Stewart, Parfitt and Zuthrie all had good years but they have quite a few steps to go before being very good players.

Most other clubs have a few very good players who are under 25 as well as potentially good. We only have potentially good at this stage and most of those have question marks.

Here's the current premier's list of U25's.

Nathan Broad
Jacob Townsend
Brandon Ellis
Kamdyn Mcintosh
Nick Vlastuin
Toby Nankervis
Nathan Drummond
Jayden Short
Ivan Soldo
Oleg Markov
Daniel Butler
Jason Castagna
Callum Moore
Connor Menadue
Corey Ellis
Mabior Chol
Daniel Rioli
Jack Graham
Ryan Garthwaite
Tyson Stengle
Shai Bolton

Plenty of premiership players listed there. But I wouldn't call any of them 'very good' at this point in their careers.

The club needs to drop down, we at least need 2 good KPFs and a good ruck.

Losing prelims isnt what I'd consider a success. You might get the odd serviceable tall from free agency or from trading but you are very unlikely to get a very good KPF or ruck.

Sticking with the example of the reigning premiers, they went with just one key forward of any note (J. Riewoldt) throughout this year's successful finals series.

And their 'good ruck' (T. Nankervis) had mostly comparable numbers to our own Z. Smith across season 2017. Smith definitively won more hitouts and clearances, Nankervis was clearly ahead on marks and tackles, and all the other numbers were extremely close.

So it appears to me that this year's premiers are basically in just as much trouble as we are if you're predicting each team's future fortunes according to the measures you have outlined.

 

[Spazz Cat]

That’s just putting the cart before the horse though. A lot of if’s here.
It’s a catch 22 though. If he has a shit year and players go past him then who would want to trade for him? Has a good year with us then why would we want to trade him?

He doesn't really have to have a shit year for others to go past him though.
We bat deep in the middle already and have a couple of youngsters coming through + Guthrie could get back into form, Cocky could get injury free and turn it on & will Blitz finally show something in the middle.
Unfortunately I think the way it is for Menegola, he has to prove himself more than others.