Review Good Bad Ugly v Lions

[Stepover]

I’m just not understanding people on Rowe. He’s played 15 games of AFL. He is calm and clever in traffic. Sure he has many areas to work on but definitely worth persisting with.

Agree , in comparison he is tracking above Stengle (the bloke he replaced) in most stats/KPIs, and is only in his first AFL season.
With another AFL preseason under his belt he’ll only get better.


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[CrowBloke]

We are 2 years into a rebuild.
Have patience.

By end 2022, we'll be 24 years without a Flag, with one losing GF to show for it.
I've been patient.
We've all been patient.
It's wearing thin .

 

[Moonwatcher]

By end 2022, we'll be 24 years without a Flag, with one losing GF to show for it.
I've been patient.
We've all been patient.
It's wearing thin .

A team is expected to win 2 premierships for each genuine premiership tilt. That's a premiership tilt every 32 years in a 16 team comp, 36 in an 18 team comp.

 

[Moonwatcher]

If we win 2 premierships in 2062 and 2063 we will have a premiership for every 18 years in the comp.

 

[kirky]

If we win 2 premierships in 2062 and 2063 we will have a premiership for every 18 years in the comp.

Jesus, I’ll be 101 and 102 or either pushing up the daises.

I’ll be celebrating drinking a fruit cup provided I know where I am and who I am.

 

[hey shorty]

I don't see why this sort of response was necessary. You can just disagree with the post and state your reasons as others have.

Yep fair call

 

[Southerntakeover]

A team is expected to win 2 premierships for each genuine premiership tilt. That's a premiership tilt every 32 years in a 16 team comp, 36 in an 18 team comp.

You can't just stick 'it is expected' onto nonsense and pretend its real.

 

[Southerntakeover]

We should all be comforted that the same people that told us we should never rebuild have formed the view that the rebuild is going well.

 

[AmericanCrow]

Not really, there are reason why young and developing side have always fade late in the season.

They have been fading the last 6 weeks. Hardly the tail end of the season

 

[WeedsMullet84]

He's an absolute gun at SANFL level where is deficiencies aren't exposed. He just doesn't have the explosive speed or strength to make it as a small forward in modern AFL where players in that role are required to apply relentless defensive pressure. I think he has a pretty low ceiling and just don't see him as a long term player.

He still seems to have a lot of game day nerves. In the SANFL he would have scored half of the misses he's had this season. He's putting a lot of pressure on himself. I think he can still become a good 1.5 goals a game avg small forward with another preseason under his belt. People are forgetting that just because you're making the jump from SANFL to AFL, it doesn't mean the conditioning required is going to be similar. Look at McAdam. He struggled big time making the jump from SANFL to AFL.

In the least he will be excellent depth in a position we're still trying to figure out. FWIW i don't think Murphy is the best small forward either. We need a Rowe/Murphy hybrid!

 

[AmericanCrow]

FFS AC, we just did that. new head coach, 1 1/2 yrs ago, new head of football 2 yrs ago, new line coach's this year.
You want a bloody magic wand to fix everything the instance the change is made, It Does not work that way!
Young players are improving (and Frampton is not a high pick Power drafted him with #84 and we traded a future 4thy round so hardly over rated).
Now we need time to develop not rash BS decisions.

That’s funny, I heard about how great Frampton would be by more than a few reading these boards.

I believe he would fit “over valued young player” to a T.

I don’t care if Nicks has been here a “short” amount of time or not.

Needs to go

 

[hey shorty]

That’s funny, I heard about how great Frampton would be by more than a few reading these boards.

I believe he would fit “over valued young player” to a T.

I don’t care if Nicks has been here a “short” amount of time or not.

Needs to go

I don't think you read anything of the sort, your imagination in overdrive.

You'd be hard pressed to find anyone over valuing him at all. And he wasn't a high draft pick as you tried to say.

 

[Truck25]

That’s funny, I heard about how great Frampton would be by more than a few reading these boards.

I believe he would fit “over valued young player” to a T.

I don’t care if Nicks has been here a “short” amount of time or not.

Needs to go

What did you expect this year? to play finals?
We already have 2 more wins than all of last year, 2 of them against contenders.
We have the youngest most inexperienced team in the comp. We are going to be inconsistent.
Take a breath, and look at the big picture, The trend is up. Enjoy the ride.

 

[CrowBloke]

1) A team is expected to win 2 premierships for each genuine premiership tilt. That's a premiership tilt every 32 years in a 16 team comp, 36 in an 18 team comp.
[and] 2) If we win 2 premierships in 2062 and 2063 we will have a premiership for every 18 years in the comp.

1) Too many assumptions in those numbers ie they assume that all teams are equal, with as-good players, as-good Coaching etc, therefore they should win a Flag every 18 years. The facts are different --- obviously, some teams are stronger/weaker, with variable strength playing lists and Coaches (no matter if the Draft is intended to even that out --- look at the exodus of drafted players from GWS/GCS/AFC to other, more desirable destination Clubs) and so on.

I doubt there's any major sporting competition where the winners conform to statistical expectations.

2) Let's stick to AFL post-1990 numbers until now. No more Flags until 2062/63 is unbearable to contemplate, even if it produces the magical 1-in-18. I'll be pushin up the daisies, anyway.
We've won 2 Flags in 30 years (1-in-15) but by end 1998 we'd won 1-in-4. Weird things, stats . Same Flags, different proportions.
Some teams have won AFL NO Flags (Melbourne/St. Kilda + Freo/GWS/GCS since their inception), others several (Hawks 5, WCE 4).
1-in-18 is an illusion, with which NO team's supporters would be happy. No Flag since 1998 --- are you happy with that?
If we had even only one more Flag out of 2005/6, 2012, 2016/17, especially 2017, I'd be a good deal less disappointed.

 

[CrowBloke]

In the least he will be excellent depth in a position we're still trying to figure out. FWIW i don't think Murphy is the best small forward either. We need a Rowe/Murphy hybrid!

... or Charlie Cameron .

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I wonder if AmericanCrow is noticing from his experience how a club (and supporter base) gets conditioned to losing?

We walk away from a 52 point loss at home on Saturday relatively happy, lots of positive signs. As long as there are a few wins here and there to keep spirits up, a few promising moments from younger players plus the allure of an early draft pick at the end of the season we can lap that up for how long?

I asked yesterday how you tell the difference between a good rebuild (WCE, Haw) and an eternal rebuild (Carl, Melb). Is it even possible to tell the difference in the early stages?

We don't know if Coach X or Game Plan Y or Player Z has what it takes because losses are accepted. So how do we know if they're any good?

It's all about The Future (not John Butcher) so losses don't matter but when does The Future arrive? There's always a next year, a next batch of draftees and if we can just get 50 games into them...

 

[relapse]

One thing that I have noticed for a lot of the season and was once again a concern on Saturday night was the lack of rotation through the middle.

Just about every centre bounce we had Sloane, Keays and Laird in the middle and if you go back and look at our CBA stats (centre bounce attendance) it paints a similar story every week.

This is why Sloane playing through his injury is a bad decision from the club because we'll just continue to give him all the midfield minutes as we're too hesitant to throw some of our young players in the middle to see how they fare.

Other clubs have 7-8 different guys rotating through there, while for a developing club ours looks like this (this is the CBA stats from our R15 game VS Carlton)



No wonder we're struggling to develop quality mids when we're too scared to ever put them in the middle.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

One thing that I have noticed for a lot of the season and was once again a concern on Saturday night was the lack of rotation through the middle.

Just about every centre bounce we had Sloane, Keays and Laird in the middle and if you go back and look at our CBA stats (centre bounce attendance) it paints a similar story every week.

This is why Sloane playing through his injury is a bad decision from the club because we'll just continue to give him all the midfield minutes as we're too hesitant to throw some of our young players in the middle to see how they fare.

Other clubs have 7-8 different guys rotating through there, while for a developing club ours looks like this (this is the CBA stats from our R15 game VS Carlton)

View attachment 1171177

No wonder we're struggling to develop quality mids when we're too scared to ever put them in the middle.

Absolutely agree with this. I thought Berry went in for one or two. Perhaps that was just stoppages. But he looked solid.

atleast one of of Schoey, Berry and Pedlar should be at every centre bounce for the rest of the year

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Absolutely agree with this. I thought Berry went in for one or two. Perhaps that was just stoppages. But he looked solid.

atleast one of of Schoey, Berry and Pedlar should be at every centre bounce for the rest of the year

The three of them should be starting as a trio at times

Unleash them

Handbrake off

We can always go back to our regulars if they get worked over

 

[Scorpus]

I asked yesterday how you tell the difference between a good rebuild (WCE, Haw) and an eternal rebuild (Carl, Melb).

Percentage. Low percentage = regularly smashed

Between 2007 and 2015, Melbourne had 7 seasons with a percentage less than 80. Since 2002, Carlton have had 9 seasons with a percentage less than 80. Gold Coast similar with 7 of their 10 seasons below 80%

Hawthorn? One season less than 80% since 1968. That's not a joke. One season (2004) in over 50 years.

West Coast? Three seasons in their history with a percentage lower than 80.

We had a shocker last year (64%) but this year we are on track for above 80% (currently 84%). That suggests that for at least this season we're not pulling a "Carlton" and have been reasonably competitive

 

[ABAB]

They have been fading the last 6 weeks. Hardly the tail end of the season

Apologies I meant half way through the season not late season.

 

[ftmch]

The big neon sign for me that we're not really focusing on rebuilding is our reluctance to play young midfielders in the midfield. Instead we religiously play 3 out of 4 older guys at almost every centre bounce unless the game is dead.

This shows we are focused on trying to win every week in the now so people keep their jobs etc (based on a misguided belief that experience = success, even though our experienced midfield is comfortably one of the worst around). We are not developing our next midfield that will pull us off the bottom. They get shafted off to all corners of the field.

We are 100% over valuing our midfield and as a result our midfield continues to be overlooked, when in fact it is the main area in need of rebuilding.

For us, rebuilding is more a happy coincidence that happens in an unplanned way when we plan to win every game on the back of an experienced but ramshackle midfield.

I reckon their approach is less about winning as many games as we can, and more about ensuring that our next gen midfielders are ushered into the role in a managed and controlled way. If that's the approach for this year, then so be it. I personally would like to see less of Sloane in there and more of Berry / Harry already, but I get the premise and am OK with it.

Next year is a whole other story. If we're not seeing our young guys taking on the primary responsibility by round 1 2022, I'll definitely be worried.

 

[ftmch]

I wonder if AmericanCrow is noticing from his experience how a club (and supporter base) gets conditioned to losing?

We walk away from a 52 point loss at home on Saturday relatively happy, lots of positive signs. As long as there are a few wins here and there to keep spirits up, a few promising moments from younger players plus the allure of an early draft pick at the end of the season we can lap that up for how long?

I asked yesterday how you tell the difference between a good rebuild (WCE, Haw) and an eternal rebuild (Carl, Melb). Is it even possible to tell the difference in the early stages?

We don't know if Coach X or Game Plan Y or Player Z has what it takes because losses are accepted. So how do we know if they're any good?

It's all about The Future (not John Butcher) so losses don't matter but when does The Future arrive? There's always a next year, a next batch of draftees and if we can just get 50 games into them...

I think next year is the pivotal year for us. Year 1 and 2 of a rebuild you can get away with a fair bit - as long as there is genuine fight and effort, are seen to be trying new things and getting young players in, most people are generally happy and just remain expectant.

By next year, we need to start seeing a strong semblance of the new world order in our starting 22, and start turning competitive efforts into consistent wins (particularly against teams we should be beating).

Personally I reckon we're on that trajectory (not that I'd really know), but next year definitely is all about evidence in the form of results.

 

[Golumless]

I wonder if AmericanCrow is noticing from his experience how a club (and supporter base) gets conditioned to losing?

We walk away from a 52 point loss at home on Saturday relatively happy, lots of positive signs. As long as there are a few wins here and there to keep spirits up, a few promising moments from younger players plus the allure of an early draft pick at the end of the season we can lap that up for how long?

I asked yesterday how you tell the difference between a good rebuild (WCE, Haw) and an eternal rebuild (Carl, Melb). Is it even possible to tell the difference in the early stages?

We don't know if Coach X or Game Plan Y or Player Z has what it takes because losses are accepted. So how do we know if they're any good?

It's all about The Future (not John Butcher) so losses don't matter but when does The Future arrive? There's always a next year, a next batch of draftees and if we can just get 50 games into them...

It is possible, seeing it seems like AC has been jumping at shadows in the last couple of days. Of course, there is another form of conditioning occurring, which is to always be panicking, never get those hopes up with a team trying to rebuild etc. After all, when you've had your hopes dashed once, it would be hard to regain the same kind of blind optimism someone like myself might have.

It likely isn't possible to tell at this stage whether we're on the right track or not. After all, this rebuild is still in its infancy. That said, I think you're looking for how many games you're winning, who your rolling and who is exceeding expectations, or getting forms of league-wide recognition (rising stars, AAs, coaches and Brownlow votes etc) at this point to give you the confidence you're at least heading down the right track. From this year, I think it's easier to argue that it is on the right track compared to it isn't. We're one win off doubling our output from last year, we've rolled two top 4 teams, we've been competitive for the most part with a >80% percentage, we've nabbed two rising stars out of 15.

That said, for us, the player you want to watch for is Riley Thilthorpe as a timing marker for this rebuild.

 

[Truck25]

I wonder if AmericanCrow is noticing from his experience how a club (and supporter base) gets conditioned to losing?

We walk away from a 52 point loss at home on Saturday relatively happy, lots of positive signs. As long as there are a few wins here and there to keep spirits up, a few promising moments from younger players plus the allure of an early draft pick at the end of the season we can lap that up for how long?

I asked yesterday how you tell the difference between a good rebuild (WCE, Haw) and an eternal rebuild (Carl, Melb). Is it even possible to tell the difference in the early stages?

We don't know if Coach X or Game Plan Y or Player Z has what it takes because losses are accepted. So how do we know if they're any good?

It's all about The Future (not John Butcher) so losses don't matter but when does The Future arrive? There's always a next year, a next batch of draftees and if we can just get 50 games into them...

Rebuilds are hard, just look at the rebuilt west coast yesterday. All you can do is look for the upward trend. Carlton and Melbourne (and Gold coast for that matter) got hand out after picks after leg ups. Hawks and Eagles developed players, recycled players but got the "team" right. Both on and off the field. I'd like to say we are on that path but only time will tell.