List Mgmt. Honest analysis of our playing list - "is it the cowboy, or the cattle?"

[Chadwiko]

Tonight's demolishing at the hands of Carlton has broken me, like it has many of you.

In a likely futile attempt at coping with the state of our mens footy team right now, I decided to spend some time going over the entirety of our senior list.

Below you will see how I've broken it down;

• Ranked by giving them a grade based on my own personal assessment (which I'm sure will generate plenty of disagreement and shitfights - also just a note that the players are not ranked in any particular order within the Grade groupings)
• Noting their recruitment history (drafted by NMFC/rookie by NMFC/midseason by NMFC/trade or free agent acquisition)
• Who the NMFC list manager was at the time of their recruitment (simplified as either the list manager or GM of football at the time - there was some job-title/responsibility murkiness in the 2010s between Bryces and Joyces but I believe I've got it basically correct - I'm happy to listen to any corrections people want to propose)

I've included a 'key' that explains the grading criteria as well as explaining the colour-coding used throughout the analysis.

Without further ado, here's what I landed on. I'll post some summary thoughts below:



*A few notes to pre-empt any issues people have. 'Unproven' players are specifically kids 20yo or under that have played fewer than 20 games. That's why guys like Duursma are UP, while Teakle/Pink are not given the age they were brought in. Also, I obviously think FOS will be a B grade player minimum but to keep the system consistent I've included him in the UP category for now.


A few observations and assessments, which are of course my own subjective opinions but I believe most of these border on statements of fact;

• Of the 7 A+B graders, the fact that three of them were drafted nearly a decade ago by previous list managers is probably not an ideal indicator for the strength of our list. More than 50% of our 'best' players (as per my grades) are recent draftees which indicates an absolute dearth of veteran talent/leadership that can offer stability and structural familiarity.
• Of the 12 players currently on the list that we acquired via trade or free agency, not one is better than a C grade. That's... not ideal.
• We have absolutely botched the midseason draft capital we've had. Picks #1, #2 (twice), and #8 and not a single best-22 player to show for it. This list doesn't include multiple MSD selections in the last 5-6 years who we've delisted either. Under Brady Rawlings
  Brady Rawlings

  Age

  44

  Ht

  184cm

  Wt

  82kg

  Pos.

  Def

  Career

  Season

  Last 5

  D

  17.7

  4star

  K

  8.7

  3star

  HB

  9.0

  5star

  M

  3.6

  4star

  T

  2.3

  4star

  No current season stats available

  D

  8.6

  3star

  K

  4.6

  2star

  HB

  4.0

  3star

  M

  1.0

  1star

  T

  0.8

  3star

  , we have been down-right terrible at the MSD.
• In the last 2 seasons particularly, the assets we have given up to trade in veteran players has seen us overpay significantly for players.

In conclusion... our playing list is terrible. It just is. While I'm sure there will be a certain level of disagreement about the grades I have attributed to each player, I doubt anyone will want to make an argument that we have any more than 10 total players on our entire list who deserve a 'B grade' or higher. After 5+ years of bottom four finishes, that is an indictment on the list management and recruitment under Brady Rawlings

Brady Rawlings

Age

44

Ht

184cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.7

4star

K

8.7

3star

HB

9.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.3

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.6

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.0

1star

T

0.8

3star

and his team.

This notion that I've seen some bandy about that we have 'the best young list in the AFL' and that it's the coaches fault we're so bad and underperforming... I'm sorry to say but I just can't see it that way based on the analysis of our list. This is not a defense of Clarko, either. I said basically the same things when Noble was coaching and people were calling for his head after we were getting thumped every week too. Our list is just straight up bad, because we absolutely botched the drafts/recruiting in the 2010-2018~ period and now have basically no one in that age bracket on our list who has been here and consistently performed at a high level, outside of... Luke McDonald? Yikes.

We're in a deep hole, and unfortunately we are still employing the main person most responsible for our current residence in said-hole. That makes it hard to see any light at the top of the abyss.

 

[kanga kanga kanga]

how are larkey and xerri in b when they both made all australian squad and they were in the 70s

 

[Chadwiko]

how are larkey and xerri in b when they both made all australian squad and they were in the 70s

You really think they're in the same category as Sheezel?

If Larkey and Xerri are an 'A', what is Sheezel? AAA+?

Sorry, I personally disagree. But you're welcome to your opinion of course.

 

[kanga kanga kanga]

You really think they're in the same category as Sheezel?

If Larkey and Xerri are an 'A', what is Sheezel? AAA+?

Sorry, I personally disagree. But you're welcome to your opinion of course.

i think the rest of the list is accurate and honestly a great list and i agree with most of ur post i was just wondering what u were basing it on because if it was based on what pick they were then i would think they were a

 

[Chadwiko]

Just in case the 'key' is too small for people to read on phone screens in the above image;

 

[big_e]

This you?

How many new threads do we need to say we are shit?

Not everyone needs their own thread.

We have the rock bottom thread, the failed rebuild thread, the autopsy thread, the Rawlings thread, the clarko thread...

Don't we have the list management thread, the Rawlings thread, etc for this discussion?

 

[Kciza]

The reality is in 2020 we cut the list back too hard. There were blokes among the 15 or so we cut that were still capable of playing serviceable AFL football. That was the first year of the bottom out . We also rushed out some veterans (Higgins and Tarrant) sooner than we should have. We also unfortunately lost Thomas for nothing

Since then our first rounder have been Philips and Powell in the COVID draft, which is a fail (terrible draft regardless), 21 was Horne-Francis (can't really blame the club for the sook), 22 was Sheez and Wardlaw (tick), 23 was Durrsma and Kerch (jury still out), 24 was FOS (looking like a tick).

So realistically the only genuine top end talent we've brought in under a semi-competent football program is 3 years old.

Unfortunately Brady is also just terrible at his job. The other avenues of improving the list have not been utilised well, and the contracts dished out to "name players" have been disgusting

 

[Chadwiko]

The reality is in 2020 we cut the list back too hard. There were blokes among the 15 or so we cut that were still capable of playing serviceable AFL football. That was the first year of the bottom out . We also rushed out some veterans (Higgins and Tarrant) sooner than we should have. We also unfortunately lost Thomas for nothing

Since then our first rounder have been Philips and Powell in the COVID draft, which is a fail (terrible draft regardless), 21 was Horne-Francis (can't really blame the club for the sook), 22 was Sheez and Wardlaw (tick), 23 was Durrsma and Kerch (jury still out), 24 was FOS (looking like a tick).

So realistically the only genuine top end talent we've brought in under a semi-competent football program is 3 years old.

Unfortunately Brady is also just terrible at his job. The other avenues of improving the list have not been utilised well, and the contracts dished out to "name players" have been disgusting

Yeah, solid summary of how we got here, and you're right about culling the list too hard at the end of the Brad Scott era/Rhyce Shaw era.

 

[Kciza]

Yeah, solid summary of how we got here, and you're right about culling the list too hard at the end of the Brad Scott era/Rhyce Shaw era.

I think a comparison we have to look at is the Suns. They took Rowell and Anderson in 2019 which can be viewed as a similar ground zero to us taking Sheez and Wardlaw. It's 5 years later and they're only starting to come good now (given they've only beaten up the bottom 4 teams so far this year).

We simply aren't going to have the access to talent they have in recent years. In my opinion we're still another 3-5 years away from even resembling something that could be competing for a finals spot.

 

[Chadwiko]

I think a comparison we have to look at is the Suns. They took Rowell and Anderson in 2019 which can be viewed as a similar ground zero to us taking Sheez and Wardlaw. It's 5 years later and they're only starting to come good now (given they've only beaten up the bottom 4 teams so far this year).

Plus Rowell had a very interrupted 2nd season with his knee injury.

 

[Chadwiko]

i think the rest of the list is accurate and honestly a great list and i agree with most of ur post i was just wondering what u were basing it on because if it was based on what pick they were

Nah, the grade is separate from where they were drafted. They aren't graded on a curve.

It's purely based on their output on the footy field.

 

[Waynesworld]

Dude, seriously you need to find another hobby.

 

[Chadwiko]

Dude, seriously you need to find another hobby.

Ha. You disagree with something specific?

 

[Waynesworld]

Ha. You disagree with something specific?

Dude you’re digging up the body, doing an autopsy and trying to bring it back to life.

It’s dead.

 

[Chadwiko]

Dude you’re digging up the body, doing an autopsy and trying to bring it back to life.

It’s dead.

You and I are both on the NMFC forums after the loss.

If you're suggesting we shouldn't bother, then why are you here?

 

[Waynesworld]

You and I are both on the NMFC forums after the loss.

If you're suggesting we shouldn't bother, then why are you here?

I’m not the one starting new threads asking for more analysis on our playing list dude, we all know it is f*cked.

 

[Themanbun]

I'd have everyone from Colby down as a D, plus Ford and Pink, til you hit the unprovens.

 

[Chadwiko]

I'd have everyone from Colby down as a D, til you hit the unprovens.

Not wildly unfair.

 

[shinboner magic]

Dude, seriously you need to find another hobby.

Dont we all

Heartless incompetent ****s

 

[north_lad]

I'm kinda sick of all of this hand-wringing over list stuff. The list has some good players, the list has some holes. Like all lists. I think Al Clarkson can coach, at the moment I think he is coaching very poorly, or to be very generous, not in a way that suits or benefits the team he is coaching.

I don't think it's anywhere near as simple as identifying one or the other as being the problem - I think it really does take a lot of problems compounding each other to trot out the football we've played at our last two home games. When we're seeing the players on our list put out the worst version of themselves on the field I don't know if it's a valuable use of time to judge the list as a whole or the individuals on it.

And even if you're right and the list is deep fried... What then?

 

[shinboner magic]

There’s a lot in the side that don’t know where to run in the defensive grid - holes everywhere

What do we do at training

 

[Only Forwards]

The answer to this question is………


It’s both.


The players we have are one of three things

1) not much chop with f*** all ceiling for improv
2) soft and do not or will not compete
3) incapable of executing what they need to but likely comfortable in the clubs need for them.


For the coaches
1) no one line wins anything
2) our ability to create and hold structure is abhorrent
3) what we are trying to do relies almost exclusively on skills we are weakest in.

Our admin is also seemingly absentee currently to where we are at.

We are pathetic top to bottom. No one holding anyone to account for these results.

On game day for every game from here on none of that matters.

You can take limited players and have them apply effort.

You can simplify things to work for a groups strengths rather than their weaknesses.

It’ll paper over lack of accountability from admin.

But nothing is going to change our complete pant shitting ineptitude in the face of overwhelming pressure.

Every club knows it and we’re gonna face it every week.

We’re in another race to the bottom and we undersold the only asset we get from that.

 

[Only Forwards]

There’s a lot in the side that don’t know where to run in the defensive grid - holes everywhere

What do we do at training

This is a communication issue between coach and side.

Not one or the other. It’s both.

They should all line up at Zondor’s and be systematically cockpunched.

 

[Danni_Benson]

Tonight's demolishing at the hands of Carlton has broken me, like it has many of you.

In a likely futile attempt at coping with the state of our mens footy team right now, I decided to spend some time going over the entirety of our senior list.

Below you will see how I've broken it down;

• Ranked by giving them a grade based on my own personal assessment (which I'm sure will generate plenty of disagreement and shitfights - also just a note that the players are not ranked in any particular order within the Grade groupings)
• Noting their recruitment history (drafted by NMFC/rookie by NMFC/midseason by NMFC/trade or free agent acquisition)
• Who the NMFC list manager was at the time of their recruitment (simplified as either the list manager or GM of football at the time - there was some job-title/responsibility murkiness in the 2010s between Bryces and Joyces but I believe I've got it basically correct - I'm happy to listen to any corrections people want to propose)

I've included a 'key' that explains the grading criteria as well as explaining the colour-coding used throughout the analysis.

Without further ado, here's what I landed on. I'll post some summary thoughts below:


View attachment 2287435
*A few notes to pre-empt any issues people have. 'Unproven' players are specifically kids 20yo or under that have played fewer than 20 games. That's why guys like Duursma are UP, while Teakle/Pink are not given the age they were brought in. Also, I obviously think FOS will be a B grade player minimum but to keep the system consistent I've included him in the UP category for now.


A few observations and assessments, which are of course my own subjective opinions but I believe most of these border on statements of fact;

• Of the 7 A+B graders, the fact that three of them were drafted nearly a decade ago by previous list managers is probably not an ideal indicator for the strength of our list. More than 50% of our 'best' players (as per my grades) are recent draftees which indicates an absolute dearth of veteran talent/leadership that can offer stability and structural familiarity.
• Of the 12 players currently on the list that we acquired via trade or free agency, not one is better than a C grade. That's... not ideal.
• We have absolutely botched the midseason draft capital we've had. Picks #1, #2 (twice), and #8 and not a single best-22 player to show for it. This list doesn't include multiple MSD selections in the last 5-6 years who we've delisted either. Under Brady Rawlings, we have been down-right terrible at the MSD.
• In the last 2 seasons particularly, the assets we have given up to trade in veteran players has seen us overpay significantly for players.

In conclusion... our playing list is terrible. It just is. While I'm sure there will be a certain level of disagreement about the grades I have attributed to each player, I doubt anyone will want to make an argument that we have any more than 10 total players on our entire list who deserve a 'B grade' or higher. After 5+ years of bottom four finishes, that is an indictment on the list management and recruitment under Brady Rawlings and his team.

This notion that I've seen some bandy about that we have 'the best young list in the AFL' and that it's the coaches fault we're so bad and underperforming... I'm sorry to say but I just can't see it that way based on the analysis of our list. This is not a defense of Clarko, either. I said basically the same things when Noble was coaching and people were calling for his head after we were getting thumped every week too. Our list is just straight up bad, because we absolutely botched the drafts/recruiting in the 2010-2018~ period and now have basically no one in that age bracket on our list who has been here and consistently performed at a high level, outside of... Luke McDonald? Yikes.

We're in a deep hole, and unfortunately we are still employing the main person most responsible for our current residence in said-hole. That makes it hard to see any light at the top of the abyss.

I haven’t read this but I’m giving you a ‘like’ for the effort you’ve gone to after such a demoralizing loss!

 

[HTPunter]

The reality is in 2020 we cut the list back too hard. There were blokes among the 15 or so we cut that were still capable of playing serviceable AFL football. That was the first year of the bottom out . We also rushed out some veterans (Higgins and Tarrant) sooner than we should have. We also unfortunately lost Thomas for nothing

Since then our first rounder have been Philips and Powell in the COVID draft, which is a fail (terrible draft regardless), 21 was Horne-Francis (can't really blame the club for the sook), 22 was Sheez and Wardlaw (tick), 23 was Durrsma and Kerch (jury still out), 24 was FOS (looking like a tick).

So realistically the only genuine top end talent we've brought in under a semi-competent football program is 3 years old.

Unfortunately Brady is also just terrible at his job. The other avenues of improving the list have not been utilised well, and the contracts dished out to "name players" have been disgusting

You can’t blame North for the JHF situation? You’re ****ing kidding me right? We should count our lucky stars that Sheezel & Wardlaw didn’t follow suit & it does concern me that they haven’t - are they genuinely idiots? Why the **** would you stay.

Jason Horne-Francis made a sensational decision to leave this club asap. It has not hindered his development at all.