How do we take the next step to a premiership?

[martinson]

If we had a fit and in form Rayner, Hipwood and McStay and the Dees were missing Petracca, Fritsch and Brown - who'd win week one of finals?

Point being: it's incredibly simplistic to say our team isn't good enough to win it when we're missing key players. If we got lucky with injuries like the previous two years, I think we'd have seen a Demons v Lions GF.

Petracca's more impactful than the other 5 put together.

You always need some luck. Fwiiw I wouldn't be banking on Rayner and particularly Hipwood having much impact next year . But yes , if everything went right for us and nothing went right for them it's a different ball game.

I actually think Goodwin managed them outstandingly this year and had them not geared up when it didn't matter and peaking at the right time. Of course relatively few mishaps helps.

 

[Elixuh]

I’m sick of this club taking half measures - we need to rebuild the side not half of it.

Get a lot of first rounders in through trades of current players.

 

[ZoBlitz]

I believe my new post covers most of this.

We’re the new Geelong, post 2010. Perennial contenders, who fall short.

We're really not.

It's perhaps also worth recognising that part of the reason you're so keen on a rebuild is that as a focused draft watcher you really enjoy being able to speculate and analyse how we'll use our draft picks. From memory you were pretty critical of our trades for Neale, Mccarthy and Adams which I imagine related to lost draft picks we could have used instead.

But in the end the goal of a football club is to create a football side that is good at football, not obtain the most young draftees with the greatest potential. We are a good side but not a great side at the moment so throwing that away to look to the future just makes no sense to me, especially considering the draft is just a lottery in the end.

It's hard to play finals regularly and it's even harder to make the top four regularly so you need to use that opportunity to go for the big prize.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

If there’s only one of them on the field, sure.

And this is where we disagree. Two good contested ball winners surrounded by speed and size and good kicks can work IMO. We didn't make it to top 4 three years in a row by being awful in midfield.

Yes, they share similar attributes, physical build, skills, athleticism, etc. But Rayner has yet to show the endurance to impact the midfield in the way Petracca did in 2019, let alone the last two seasons.

2019 was Petracca's fifth year in the league. Rayner only reaches his fifth year next year, and that's with one of them fully lost to injury. Also, players don't have to develop at the same rate. Rayner could develop at the same rate as Petracca or a bit slower, but if he gets to playing at strong level for us, that's what matters.

 

[briztoon]

We're really not.

It's perhaps also worth recognising that part of the reason you're so keen on a rebuild is that as a focused draft watcher you really enjoy being able to speculate and analyse how we'll use our draft picks. From memory you were pretty critical of our trades for Neale, Mccarthy and Adams which I imagine related to lost draft picks we could have used instead.

But in the end the goal of a football club is to create a football side that is good at football, not obtain the most young draftees with the greatest potential. We are a good side but not a great side at the moment so throwing that away to look to the future just makes no sense to me, especially considering the draft is just a lottery in the end.

It's hard to play finals regularly and it's even harder to make the top four regularly so you need to use that opportunity to go for the big prize.

Not sure I was critical of trading for Adams or McCarthy.

The Neale trade for me was more about; 1) the trading of the future first and splitting it as we did. 2) trading high draft picks for a player I didn’t view as being as impactful enough. Would have preferred just giving up the pick we got for Beams.

I don’t really rate the Neale or Tom Mitchell type of mids to give up what we did. (Sorry at work, don’t have the time to explain further).

 

[Dalions]

Perennial contenders who always fall short.

Got it the first time!
Comparing us to Geelong whether in 2010 or now is just plain stupid.

 

[Section 5]

I see the Lions in just as much of a premiership window as anyone in the 8
We certainly don't need a rebuild just a rejig and more improvement. Hopefully we get a couple of good players in the draft
I expect Bailey to improve again next year and spend more time in the middle
His TOG jumped 3.4% to 81.4% with more time in the middle
Prefer McCluggage one more year mainly on wing with increased time in middle

Barring something unexpected in our trade and draft period i rate our mids for next year in this order
Mids: Neale, Lyons, Bailey (more time in middle), Zorko (less time in middle)
Wing: McCluggage (a little more time in middle), Robbo, Prior, Ah Chee
F/Mid: Rayner, J Berry, Cockatoo, McCarthy, Cameron
Others: D Robertson, Mathieson, Sharp (although i can see Sharp playing small defender) + always someone debuts each year

 

[jackess]

Our rise post trading for Neale should be the clearest piece of evidence of a players impact on a club.

 

[jjami15]

Winning a premiership is bloody hard to do and it’s not as easy as saying we need a player x or a specific type of player. Are we close? yes. It’s a number of things, injuries, mindset and total buy-in, game plan, pre-season, etc. Then things going the other way for other teams.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Barring something unexpected in our trade and draft period i rate our mids for next year in this order
Mids: Neale, Lyons, Bailey (more time in middle), Zorko (less time in middle)
Wing: McCluggage (a little more time in middle), Robbo, Prior, Ah Chee
F/Mid: Rayner, J Berry, Cockatoo, McCarthy, Cameron
Others: D Robertson, Mathieson, Sharp (although i can see Sharp playing small defender) + always someone debuts each year

While I disagree with briztoon 's conclusions, I agree with them that the midfield is slow with Lyons and Neale, and I don't think there's a lot of room left for other slow players in the midfield if we want to win premierships. As Zorko continues to lose pace with age, I'd hope we play him forward more, with Rayner and Cockatoo running through the midfield more instead.

 

[briztoon]

Got it the first time!
Comparing us to Geelong whether in 2010 or now is just plain stupid.

I didn’t compare us to Geelong in 2010.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Perennial contenders who always fall short.

Like Richmond before 2017? They built into three finals series but were just never quite good enough, then dropped away.

Like Hawthorn post 2008? 9th in 09, 7th in 10, 3rd in 11, and 1st in 12 (runners up in the GF too)?

Like Port in the early 2000s? 3rd in 2001, 1st in 2002, and 1st in 2003 without a GF to show for it?

Or like the Bears/Lions of the late 90s? Who finished 3rd in 96, 8th in 97, last in 98, 3rd again in 99, and 6th in 2000?

All perennial contenders always falling short. Until suddenly they didn't. With largely the same lists.

Growth towards a premiership doesn't seem to follow the linear trajectory that you believe it does. There's more evidence of it being a bumpy ride of sides being almost there but then falling away and then ultimately making it than there is of any other avenue to a grand final.

I know many have done some revisionist history around the Demons in recent weeks and suggested they were always going to be a great side, but 6 months ago the odds were almost unbackable for Simon Goodwin's sacking. The general sentiment was that they'd stuffed things up. Oliver was even being floated in trade talks last year.

As unusual as it is, our build at the moment is actually following the bumpy trajectory that almost every premiership team follows before breaking through.

And as for your insistence that we can't win a flag with Neale & Lyons in our midfield, as I've said before, there are countless examples of similar midfields doing it in the past decade.

Hawthorn's starting midfielders at different stages in their hat-trick: Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge, Jordan Lewis, Brad Sewell
Richmond's starting midfielders at different stages in their premiership run: Trent Cotchin, Shane Edwards, Dion Prestia
West Coast's starting midfielders at different stages in their 2018 flag: Jack Redden, Elliot Yeo, Luke Shuey, Dom Sheed

Do any of those players seem drastically different in quality to Neale & Lyons at their best? Even those who are clearly legends of the game - Mitchell, Hodge, and Cotchin - played really quite similarly to Lachie & JL when they were in the midfield.

This whole thing is so much more complex than you make it out to be. None of us know if this team will win a flag. Chris Fagan doesn't know. Simon Goodwin doesn't know. Nobody does and nobody can. As many have said though - it is certainly good enough to A) have us around the mark, which is all you can ask for and then hope that form & injuries play in your favour, and B) have a glut of young talent to be building to the future even with the aim for success now.

I know this is a recurring discussion and your mind seems quite set on this, so it's probably no use continuing the conversation. So I'll make this my last post on the matter. And to be clear - none of us here are saying our current side will win a premiership. All we are saying is that it's absurd to say that it's not possible when we've been a top 4 team three years in a row.

Premierships are as much to do with good injury luck and momentum at the right time as they are to do with anything else. It's not as if you have to have this mythical extra gear to go to in order to win a flag. You just have to be in the conversation and then hope the cards fall your way when it really matters. Melbourne got that this year. If Petracca gets injured 2 months ago, or if they hit a flat spot momentum-wise, they quite possibly don't win the flag.

As I said last night, the 2000 Essendon side was supposedly the best of all time. Talent on all lines. Unstoppable superstars. And they just have the one flag to show for it. According to many, the AFL may as well have just engraved four or five premiership cups for GWS with the quantity of talent they had in the late 2010s. Yet they didn't win any. Collingwood had 'history's best midfield' in 2017/18/19. And they have nothing to show for it.

Culture wins more flags than talent does. Luck wins more flags than destiny does. And complex list-builds win more flags than an abundance of high draft picks do. This isn't opinion - it's really quite clear.

 

[Dalions]

I didn’t compare us to Geelong in 2010.

 

[BRAB]

It's tiring isn't it?

 

[MacMum]

Both of the teams last night were in the low 100’s as far as games experience goes.
Without Birchall next year that is exactly where we will be.
Geelong was up around 160 all year This year.

I think at one stage I heard a comment that the Demons had 11 players playing who were under 21......one had played 7 only for 7 wins and a premiership. Not bad.

 

[AFLQLD]

Like Richmond before 2017? They built into three finals series but were just never quite good enough, then dropped away.

Like Hawthorn post 2008? 9th in 09, 7th in 10, 3rd in 11, and 1st in 12 (runners up in the GF too)?

Like Port in the early 2000s? 3rd in 2001, 1st in 2002, and 1st in 2003 without a GF to show for it?

Or like the Bears/Lions of the late 90s? Who finished 3rd in 96, 8th in 97, last in 98, 3rd again in 99, and 6th in 2000?

All perennial contenders always falling short. Until suddenly they didn't. With largely the same lists.

Growth towards a premiership doesn't seem to follow the linear trajectory that you believe it does. There's more evidence of it being a bumpy ride of sides being almost there but then falling away and then ultimately making it than there is of any other avenue to a grand final.

I know many have done some revisionist history around the Demons in recent weeks and suggested they were always going to be a great side, but 6 months ago the odds were almost unbackable for Simon Goodwin's sacking. The general sentiment was that they'd stuffed things up. Oliver was even being floated in trade talks last year.

As unusual as it is, our build at the moment is actually following the bumpy trajectory that almost every premiership team follows before breaking through.

And as for your insistence that we can't win a flag with Neale & Lyons in our midfield, as I've said before, there are countless examples even in the last decade of similar midfields doing it in the past decade.

Hawthorn's starting midfielders at different stages in their hat-trick: Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge, Jordan Lewis, Brad Sewell
Richmond's starting midfielders at different stages in their premiership run: Trent Cotchin, Shane Edwards, Dion Prestia
West Coast's starting midfielders at different stages in their 2018 flag: Jack Redden, Elliot Yeo, Luke Shuey, Dom Sheed

Do any of those players seem drastically different in quality to Neale & Lyons at their best? Even those who are clearly legends of the game - Mitchell, Hodge, and Cotchin - played really quite similarly to Lachie & JL when they were in the midfield.

This whole thing is so much more complex than you make it out to be. None of us know if this team will win a flag. Chris Fagan doesn't know. Simon Goodwin doesn't know. Nobody does and nobody can. As many have said though - it is certainly good enough to A) have us around the mark, which is all you can ask for and then hope that form & injuries play in your favour, and B) have a glut of young talent to be building to the future even with the aim for success now.

I know this is a recurring discussion and your mind seems quite set on this, so it's probably no use continuing the conversation. So I'll make this my last post on the matter. And to be clear - none of us here are saying our current side will win a premiership. All we are saying is that it's absurd to say that it's not possible when we've been a top 4 team three years in a row.

Premierships are as much to do with good injury luck and momentum at the right time as they are to do with anything else. It's not as if you have to have this mystical extra gear to go to in order to win a flag. You just have to be in the conversation and then hope the cards fall your way when it really matters. Melbourne got that this year. If Petracca gets injured 2 months ago, or if they hit a flat spot momentum-wise, they quite possibly don't win the flag.

As I said last night, the 2000 Essendon side was supposedly the best of all time. Talent on all lines. Unstoppable superstars. And they just have the one flag to show for it. According to many, the AFL may as well have just engraved four or five premiership cups for GWS with the quantity of talent they had in the late 2010s. Yet they didn't win any. Collingwood had 'history's best midfield' in 2017/18/19. And they have nothing to show for it.

Culture wins more flags than talent does. Luck wins more flags than destiny does. And complex list-builds win more flags than an abundance of high draft picks do. This isn't opinion - it's really quite clear.

This is an extraordinarily good post. It really does sum up the notion that what makes a team premiers is a recipe that isn’t written in stone and can be fine-tuned and adjusted to meet the skills of the players and counter the skills and tactics of the opposition. There are as many ways to win premierships as there are premiers.

 

[martinson]

I think at one stage I heard a comment that the Demons had 11 players playing who were under 21......one had played 7 only for 7 wins and a premiership. Not bad.

Is that right ? I thought they only had 5 or 6 under 24.

When a team comes along like Melbourne and sweeps all before it there's always an overreaction as to how good they're going to be.

As people have pointed out it's a complex issue to predict the future of any footy team.

But they have a good mix and balance of youth and experience , many very good players and some champions.

It's a little reminiscent as to how we came out of nowhere in 2001. People were still in denial as to how good they were mid season and it seems still.

Interesting to see how they saddle up next year as the hunted.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I think at one stage I heard a comment that the Demons had 11 players playing who were under 21......one had played 7 only for 7 wins and a premiership. Not bad.

Only 7 actually, four of which were on the bench. They've certainly drafted very well in the last few years (Pickett, Jackson, Rivers, Spargo etc) but what sets them apart is they have a huge amount of talent at the ages of 24-26, who are just hitting their prime now. Petracca, Oliver, Brayshaw, Lever, Fritsch, Salem, Harmes, Langdon and Neal-Bullen are all in that range. That's the age where players really start to be good enough to contribute strongly in premiership campaigns.

 

[martinson]

Only 7 actually, four of which were on the bench. They've certainly drafted very well in the last few years (Pickett, Jackson, Rivers, Spargo etc) but what sets them apart is they have a huge amount of talent at the ages of 24-26, who are just hitting their prime now. Petracca, Oliver, Brayshaw, Lever, Fritsch, Salem, Harmes, Langdon and Neal-Bullen are all in that range. That's the age where players really start to be good enough to contribute strongly in premiership campaigns.

It's hard to see them going backwards given their age profiles isn't it.

Gawn's not even 30 yet.

 

[davemc_lions]

Demons have the best mid and backline in the AFL.. Forward line not full of stars
Dogs have probably the second best mid although backline/forwards can be up and down
Both do not have the fire power we have forward. We also if fit have a good solid back 6 to defend.

We are one of the best teams for inside 50's
Although we bang it in blindly a lot as our mids pressured more.
We are too slow out of the backline which adds to the pressure with kicks.
Apart from speed our match winners are in the forward line not the midfield like other teams. Charlie, Joe, Hipwood.
Lyon and Neale great players although not a match breaker.
Both sides yesterday have multiple mids who can turn it on. Break games apart.
We do not.. No idea where you get one.. Berry not come on. Clugga a great talented player as well.
Everyone hoping Rayner comes back from a knee and players better then he did prior
Or Cockatoo or Starc can turn things around.

We really need a Dusty/Petracca/Oliver/Bont type.. Which every team wants

 

[jackess]

Demons have the best mid and backline in the AFL.. Forward line not full of stars
Dogs have probably the second best mid although backline/forwards can be up and down
Both do not have the fire power we have forward. We also if fit have a good solid back 6 to defend.

We are one of the best teams for inside 50's
Although we bang it in blindly a lot as our mids pressured more.
We are too slow out of the backline which adds to the pressure with kicks.
Apart from speed our match winners are in the forward line not the midfield like other teams. Charlie, Joe, Hipwood.
Lyon and Neale great players although not a match breaker.
Both sides yesterday have multiple mids who can turn it on. Break games apart.
We do not.. No idea where you get one.. Berry not come on. Clugga a great talented player as well.
Everyone hoping Rayner comes back from a knee and players better then he did prior
Or Cockatoo or Starc can turn things around.

We really need a Dusty/Petracca/Oliver/Bont type.. Which every team wants

Bailey

 

[martinson]

Bailey

Geez I hope you're half right Jackess.

He's able to do some miracle things with ease on occasions . Long way to go but either way he's going to be a very good player.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

It's hard to see them going backwards given their age profiles isn't it.

Gawn's not even 30 yet.

Nothing is impossible. They had a great run with injury this year, but you can't count on that every year. They'll lose players to salary cap difficulties going forward, and maybe their game plan gets figured out somewhere along the way. But yes, they should be strong contenders for at least the next six years.

 

[POBT]

I think the Demons defensive 6-7 is very good but I think that it looks particularly awesome due to their whole ground defence. However, I don't think the gap between the Dees' defenders and a couple of other clubs is all that huge.

The other thing I like about the Dees is how self-sacrificing their midfielders are. Viney would be the #1 mid at some clubs but is happy to be 3rd or 4th banana. Brayshaw is happy not to play his preferred position in order to fill a role. Oliver played a defensive role when it was needed. Even Max was prepared to play away from the contest last night if it meant a better outcome for the club. It seems like an ego free group.

 

[martinson]

I think the Demons defensive 6-7 is very good but I think that it looks particularly awesome due to their whole ground defence. However, I don't think the gap between the Dees' defenders and a couple of other clubs is all that huge.

The other thing I like about the Dees is how self-sacrificing their midfielders are. Viney would be the #1 mid at some clubs but is happy to be 3rd or 4th banana. Brayshaw is happy not to play his preferred position in order to fill a role. Oliver played a defensive role when it was needed. Even Max was prepared to play away from the contest last night if it meant a better outcome for the club. It seems like an ego free group.

True.

You have to have the cattle to be able to afford gun players to self sacrifice.

So very unlikely they'll be a one year wonder.