How effective is each draft pick from (2000-2009)

[CaneGarner]

Not so, I'm a firm believer that if you're playing you deserve it (In one way or another). A club could gift a player 300 games easily, but to do so to a spud would be suicide for the club. The sheer fact I'm having this discussion with so many is mind-boggling. Of course games played is going to be the most accurate measure of a players draft worth. Simply of course. Over time you will have no other measure more accurate. As soon as you take it into qualitative terms, you suddenly lose any sense of legitimacy. Give me a coaches opinion (The one who gives games) over a bigfooty warrior's any day of the week.

I agree with you, but only to a certain point.


Dustin Fletcher has played 378 games (and counting). James Hird played 253 over his career. Does this mean that Fletcher is a 10.0 player and Hird was only a 6.7 player? I doubt that's how Essendon fans see it! Fletcher's longevity is remarkable and he's clearly a very good player, but he has not had the same impact on the game as James Hird.

My rating system would give both players 5 points for achieving the games threshold of 150. Both players would also get 2.5 points for having been selected in an All Australian team. Hird would get an additional 2.5 points for achieving the threshold value of 70 AFLCA votes over a 20 week period (I am assuming) whereas between 2010 and 2013 Fletcher's best was 38 AFLCA votes over a 20 week period, giving him 1.2 out of a possible 2.5 points for that one. I am probably being unfair to Fletch as he probably has done better than that earlier in his career, let's give him 1.5 out of 2.5.

So James Hird scores 10.0, Dustin Fletcher scores 9.0. Both qualify as a "star" (more than 8.0).

Justin Koschitzke played 200 games (5.0 points), but never achieved All Australian status (0 points) and would have had a low AFLCA best 20 week period (let's guess 1.0 out of 2.5 points). So Koschitzke scores 6.0 and qualifies as a solid player (more than 5.0) but not a star.

I think that is a better way to measure a player's impact on the competition than total games played.

 

[CaneGarner]

Yes indeed. That's a fair call. How do you define star though? I think we should just forget about putting in a concept like that. If a pick reaches x games then it's a good pick. If not xxxx. Perhaps you would need an entirely different rating system to work out which picks will give you a "star". Again that's just an annoying concept to decide upon. There's about 70-80 stars in the AFL at any given time. They drop in and out of that status as their form commands. If you go with AA's then you'll have some unlucky fellows and some very lucky fellows. I tend to dislike such assesments.

You are right though. More chance of a mature ager reaching x games then a project player, but less chance of them becoming a star.

Take your point about All Australian selection though, that is a limitation. And also I think AFLCA voting is probably biased towards midfielders (as everything seems to be!).

 

[eastfreo75]

Seems to be me, but it is better not to draft 18 year old kids after the third round including the rookie draft. Unless they have attitude problems, you can rookie list and then try to turn them around.

 

[Tommycash]

I agree with you, but only to a certain point.


Dustin Fletcher has played 378 games (and counting). James Hird played 253 over his career. Does this mean that Fletcher is a 10.0 player and Hird was only a 6.7 player? I doubt that's how Essendon fans see it! Fletcher's longevity is remarkable and he's clearly a very good player, but he has not had the same impact on the game as James Hird.

My rating system would give both players 5 points for achieving the games threshold of 150. Both players would also get 2.5 points for having been selected in an All Australian team. Hird would get an additional 2.5 points for achieving the threshold value of 70 AFLCA votes over a 20 week period (I am assuming) whereas between 2010 and 2013 Fletcher's best was 38 AFLCA votes over a 20 week period, giving him 1.2 out of a possible 2.5 points for that one. I am probably being unfair to Fletch as he probably has done better than that earlier in his career, let's give him 1.5 out of 2.5.

So James Hird scores 10.0, Dustin Fletcher scores 9.0. Both qualify as a "star" (more than 8.0).

Justin Koschitzke played 200 games (5.0 points), but never achieved All Australian status (0 points) and would have had a low AFLCA best 20 week period (let's guess 1.0 out of 2.5 points). So Koschitzke scores 6.0 and qualifies as a solid player (more than 5.0) but not a star.

I think that is a better way to measure a player's impact on the competition than total games played.

I like that system a lot to be honest. I've been grappling with how to measure true value but that seems fairly good.

 

[*PAF]

Not sure if it's been said as I'm still on page 1 but the third rounders include a number of FS picks.

 

[CaneGarner]

Ten biggest (national) draft bargains in order, 2000-2009, not including father son picks:

1. Dane Swan, Pick 58, 2001
2. Sam Mitchell, Pick 36, 2001
3. Daniel Hanneberry, Pick 30, 2008
4. Leigh Montagna, Pick 37, 2001
5. Dayne Beams, Pick 29, 2008
6. Scott Thompson, Pick 16, 2000
7. Steve Johnson, Pick 24, 2001
8. Mark LeCras, Pick 37, 2004
9. Drew Petrie, Pick 23, 2000
10. Patrick Dangerfield, Pick 10, 2007

2001 draft is well represented! If my team picks up a player anywhere near the quality of these tomorrow for a similar pick, I would be very happy!

Discuss...

 

[swansfan51]

If you included rookie picks, then the clear #1 under your ranking system would be Kieren Jack, rookie pick 57

 

[Dylan8]

Ten biggest (national) draft bargains in order, 2000-2009, not including father son picks:

1. Dane Swan, Pick 58, 2001
2. Sam Mitchell, Pick 36, 2001
3. Daniel Hanneberry, Pick 30, 2008
4. Leigh Montagna, Pick 37, 2001
5. Dayne Beams, Pick 29, 2008
6. Scott Thompson, Pick 16, 2000
7. Steve Johnson, Pick 24, 2001
8. Mark LeCras, Pick 37, 2004
9. Drew Petrie, Pick 23, 2000
10. Patrick Dangerfield, Pick 10, 2007

2001 draft is well represented! If my team picks up a player anywhere near the quality of these tomorrow for a similar pick, I would be very happy!

Discuss...

I understand Dangerfield is probably top 2 or 3 from that draft, and a super player, but is any first round pick really a bargain?

From that draft alone, despite the players not being as good as Dangerfield, pick 37 for Scott Thompson or Jack Steven for pick 42 were pretty huge steals.

 

[shotgun_blues]

If you included rookie picks, then the clear #1 under your ranking system would be Kieren Jack, rookie pick 57

.. You believe that?

$ydney had exclusive rights to him and was allowed to select him last, on top of that nay a dollar of his salary is under the cap or near to it (ambassador allowance) just for a nice little extra cherry on top.

Free kicks are good hey?

 

[Fatcat08]

Ten biggest (national) draft bargains in order, 2000-2009, not including father son picks:

1. Dane Swan, Pick 58, 2001
2. Sam Mitchell, Pick 36, 2001
3. Daniel Hanneberry, Pick 30, 2008
4. Leigh Montagna, Pick 37, 2001
5. Dayne Beams, Pick 29, 2008
6. Scott Thompson, Pick 16, 2000
7. Steve Johnson, Pick 24, 2001
8. Mark LeCras, Pick 37, 2004
9. Drew Petrie, Pick 23, 2000
10. Patrick Dangerfield, Pick 10, 2007

2001 draft is well represented! If my team picks up a player anywhere near the quality of these tomorrow for a similar pick, I would be very happy!

Discuss...

Its a handy list.

Just from a brisbane perspective Rockliff was overlooked in the draft and picked in the psd. Not sure he'd make it into that list but in terms of value he'd be there abouts.

 

[Tommycash]

If you included rookie picks, then the clear #1 under your ranking system would be Kieren Jack, rookie pick 57

I reckon Boyd would have to be close. #23 in the rookie draft.

 

[Fatcat08]

I reckon Boyd would have to be close. #23 in the rookie draft.

Nice pickup. Think Bock and Rutten were both taken in the same rookie draft as well, so they would have to be up there too.

 

[liz]

.. You believe that?

$ydney had exclusive rights to him and was allowed to select him last, on top of that nay a dollar of his salary is under the cap or near to it (ambassador allowance) just for a nice little extra cherry on top.

Free kicks are good hey?

No we didn't. He was pre- scholarship and pre-Academy. And due to the questions around his draft nomination forms, he was explicitly not permitted to be taken as a zone rookie pick. He was picks with the very last live pick in that year's rookie draft.

 

[Tommycash]

Ten biggest (national) draft bargains in order, 2000-2009, not including father son picks:

1. Dane Swan, Pick 58, 2001
2. Sam Mitchell, Pick 36, 2001
3. Daniel Hanneberry, Pick 30, 2008
4. Leigh Montagna, Pick 37, 2001
5. Dayne Beams, Pick 29, 2008
6. Scott Thompson, Pick 16, 2000
7. Steve Johnson, Pick 24, 2001
8. Mark LeCras, Pick 37, 2004
9. Drew Petrie, Pick 23, 2000
10. Patrick Dangerfield, Pick 10, 2007

2001 draft is well represented! If my team picks up a player anywhere near the quality of these tomorrow for a similar pick, I would be very happy!

Discuss...

Brian Lake 2001 pick 71. Surely.

 

[Jewbacca]

Brian Lake 2001 pick 71. Surely.

Pick 71 in 2001 was actually Brian Harris

 

[bombermick]

That list shows that huge bargains are now almost impossible to find. Hannebery was a 17-year-old, while the other huge steals were taken early in the decade. In saying that, this draft has a lot of boom or bust players, so it could be one to feature heavily in such a list in the future.

edit: Huge bargain refers to a Lake or a Swan, not a Garlett or Hibberd.

 

[Davo-27]

Pick 71 in 2001 was actually Brian Harris

not sure you are aware that Brian Lake was known as Brian Harris before he changed his last name to his biological fathers last name....

 

[Jewbacca]

not sure you are aware that Brian Lake was known as Brian Harris before he changed his last name to his biological fathers last name....

Yeah was just being smart. hard to tell on the interwebz, i know.

 

[Davo-27]

Between 2000-2009 rookie drafts these players were picked up, not bad for players who missed being drafted

2000 - M. Osborne, L. Harding, D. Jolly, D. Peverill, N. Lovett-Murray, M. Rooke, R. Copeland
2001 - A. Carrazzo, M. Jamar, Q. Lynch, M. Boyd, N. Bock, A. Sandilands, B. Rutten, M. Mattner
2002 - B. Sewell, A. Edwards, M. Firrito, J. Patfull, N. Maxwell, J. Porplyzia, S. Byrnes, J. MacDonald
2003 - A. Davey, N. Foley
2004 - W. Thursfield, J. Gibson, D. Pearce, C. Young, D. Morris, H. O'Brien, R. Crowley, H. Grundy, J. Drummond
2005 - A. Toovey, P. Duffield, H. Hocking, M. Priddis, S. Gilham, B. McGlynn, K. Jack
2006 - S. Wellingham, M. Jamieson, J. King, J. Harbrow, M. Clarke, T. Lonergan, J. Geary
2007 - N. Grima, P. Hanley, E. Curnow, S. Mumford
2008 - J. Garlett, R. Nahas, M. De Boer, J. Blair, L. Picken, L. Breust, C. Pearce, M. Pike, G. Broughton, M. Suckling
2009 - A. Silvagni, B. Howlett, M. Wright, S. Crameri, M. Jensch, J. Podsiadly, Z. Tuohy

 

[Dylan8]

Between 2000-2009 rookie drafts these players were picked up, not bad for players who missed being drafted

2000 - M. Osborne, L. Harding, D. Jolly, D. Peverill, N. Lovett-Murray, M. Rooke, R. Copeland
2001 - A. Carrazzo, M. Jamar, Q. Lynch, M. Boyd, N. Bock, A. Sandilands, B. Rutten, M. Mattner
2002 - B. Sewell, A. Edwards, M. Firrito, J. Patfull, N. Maxwell, J. Porplyzia, S. Byrnes, J. MacDonald
2003 - A. Davey, N. Foley
2004 - W. Thursfield, J. Gibson, D. Pearce, C. Young, D. Morris, H. O'Brien, R. Crowley, H. Grundy, J. Drummond
2005 - A. Toovey, P. Duffield, H. Hocking, M. Priddis, S. Gilham, B. McGlynn, K. Jack
2006 - S. Wellingham, M. Jamieson, J. King, J. Harbrow, M. Clarke, T. Lonergan, J. Geary
2007 - N. Grima, P. Hanley, E. Curnow, S. Mumford
2008 - J. Garlett, R. Nahas, M. De Boer, J. Blair, L. Picken, L. Breust, C. Pearce, M. Pike, G. Broughton, M. Suckling
2009 - A. Silvagni, B. Howlett, M. Wright, S. Crameri, M. Jensch, J. Podsiadly, Z. Tuohy

You didn't bold a few great gets

 

[Davo-27]

You didn't bold a few great gets

they are all great gets for basically nothing...

 

[Dylan8]

they are all great gets for basically nothing...

I'm just saying, I wouldn't bother bolding them if you're only to miss out on a few who are at least in hte same tier

 

[CaneGarner]

Revised list, including rookie draft selections:

1. Kieren Jack, Pick 57, 2005 Rookie Draft (controversy notwithstanding)
2. Matthew Boyd, Pick 23, 2001 Rookie Draft
3. Aaron Sandilands, Pick 33, 2001 Rookie Draft
4. Dane Swan, Pick 58, 2001 National Draft
5. Sam Mitchell, Pick 36, 2001 National Draft
6. Brian Lake, Pick 71, 2001 National Draft
7. Leigh Montagna, Pick 37, 2001 National Draft
8. Daniel Hannebery, Pick 30, 2008 National Draft
9. Dayne Beams, Pick 29, 2008 National Draft
10. Ben Rutten, Pick 40, 2001 Rookie Draft

Other considerations:

Harry O'Brien, Pick 20, 2004 Rookie Draft
Nathan Bock, Pick 25, 2001 Rookie Draft
Dale Morris, Pick 19, 2004 Rookie Draft
Michael Johnson, Pick 8, 2003 Pre-Season Draft
Scott Thompson, Pick 16, 2000 National Draft

 

[CaneGarner]

Seven of the ten on that list are from 2001, what an unbelievable draft year.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Justin Westhoff pick 71 in 2006 draft - ok he was 20 not 18 was a steal. I think now that he has a coach in Hinkley who knows how to use him, you will see, like you did in 2013, a bloke who will win matches at one end of the ground and go back and save games at the other end, week in week not just be this enigma who performs once every 5 or 6 games.