Opinion How good will our forwardline be?!

[muttweed]

Now that the season's over, let's pump up our own tyres.

This year we had a pretty woeful forwardline, with Hawkins as probably the only bright light. We didn't have last year's spread, and it showed in the EF when we tried to bomb it to Tomahawk, who had no space whatsoever.

In 2012, it contained Hawkins, Podsiadly, Motlop, Chapman, Stokes and a tall forward from the twos that just needs gametime (Walker, Brown etc). SJ and Stokes rotated in and out to play midfield and forward.

Hawkins kicked 63 goals
Podsiadly kicked 35 goals
Motlop kicked 26 goals
Chapman kicked 36 goals
Stokes kicked 15 goals
Combined, Walker and Brown kicked 7 goals in 10 games

Total goals from our main forwards:
182

In 2013, our forwardline will contain Hawkins, Podsiadly, Menzel, Varcoe, Vardy and Chapman/Motlop. SJ will get stints up forward every now and then, if not more often than he did in 2012, but only if we can get a good young inside mid during trade week.

After another preseason, and after the forwards and midfielders gel, which I reckon won't take long, I can see this happening:

Hawkins: 55
Podsiadly: 32
Menzel: 48
Varcoe: 39
Vardy: 34
Chapman/Motlop combined: 67 goals

Total goals from our main forwards: 275, which is not only aeons more than our 2012 total, but it's 15 more total goals than Hawthorn's supposedly "best of all time" forwardline from this year

As much as I'd love Hawkins to kick 100 goals, which we all know he is capable of, we need the spread. Monster forwards aren't always the most reliable, no matter how good. Just look at Franklin in finals, hell even Carey in finals. They may be able to carry the team through the H&A season, but it won't work on a big stage.

Anyway. I'm pretty excited for our future.

What do you think?

 

[FredLeDeux]

Varcoe has previously averaged barely 1 goal a game, and this year will probably play even less time in the forward line.
If Smedts plays in the forward line, he will kick fewer goals than Motlop did when he played there; and Motlop would kick fewer from the wing.

 

[Senatorguesty]

I love the idea but I think you should drop 10-12 goals from vardy, 8-10 from varcoe and add 10-15 to the T-Bone.
I know we all want a spread of goal kickers but we have a star up there now, he WILL kick 60+ next year. The key will be having more options, which we will.

 

[muttweed]

Varcoe has previously averaged barely 1 goal a game, and this year will probably play even less time in the forward line.
If Smedts plays in the forward line, he will kick fewer goals than Motlop did when he played there; and Motlop would kick fewer from the wing.

Varcoe scored 31 goals in 2011. With another preseason under his belt, 39 is not out of his reach.

 

[muttweed]

I love the idea but I think you should drop 10-12 goals from vardy, 8-10 from varcoe and add 10-15 to the T-Bone.
I know we all want a spread of goal kickers but we have a star up there now, he WILL kick 60+ next year. The key will be having more options, which we will.

Vardy will barely be rucking anymore if we get Hmac, so what you saw of him in 2011 will be contrary to what he could bring to the table in 2013. He will be a permanent CHF, and he has all the weapons there to be dangerous. 34 goals for Vardy IMO. Midfield delivery should be better than what it was in 2012 too.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Varcoe scored 31 goals in 2011. With another preseason under his belt, 39 is not out of his reach.

28 (1 per game) in 2011, when he was spending more time on the ball.
31 (1.6 per game) back in 2010, when he was still spending more time forward.

 

[muttweed]

28 (1 per game) in 2011, when he was spending more time on the ball.
31 (1.6 per game) back in 2010, when he was still spending more time forward.

No, he kicked 31 in both 2010 and 2011.

Are you suggesting that Varcoe cannot improve on those years? I think he's well capable.

 

[BotsMaster]

Our forwardline will be better than Hawthorns.

 

[CatsBack2Back]

If Menzal kicks 49 goals coming off 2 knee recos it will go down as one of the greatest seasons of a player of all time.
I love your optimism though!

 

[FredLeDeux]

No, he kicked 31 in both 2010 and 2011.

Are you suggesting that Varcoe cannot improve on those years? I think he's well capable.

Sorry, you're correct, the stats I looked at omitted the G/F.
I think that he can improve on those years, but not in the number of goals he kicks.
I also think your suggestion that the 2 CHFs combined are going to substantially outscore Hawkins is, to put it mildly, debatable.

 

[Senatorguesty]

If Menzal kicks 49 goals coming off 2 knee recos it will go down as one of the greatest seasons of a player of all time.
I love your optimism though!

It IS menzel tho. It's a fair chance

 

[Vdubs]

How good will our forward line be?
It will NOT be our weakness.
The best defences and midfields win flags, they the areas that need tinkering, at least.

 

[Gaz_Brownlow]

Forward line is incredibly strong on paper but we need synergy and defensive pressure to make it great. We are still missing a Max Rooke type! Maybe Josh Walker can be that guy!

Vardy and Menzel just could be anything!

 

[DanA]

I'm more excited about the improved balance and our ability to apply defensive pressure than the goal scoring capacity but IMO it won't be the forward line indicated in the OP.

FF: Smedts Hawkins Chapman
HF: Johnson Podsiadly Menzel

Varcoe & Motlop rotating through with the smalls, Vardy creating a mismatches and occasionally resting the talls.

For me one of the key weakness in 2012 was our ability to apply defensive pressure inside 50. I felt with Stokes, Chapman & a hobbled Bartel the small didn't apply enough pressure. IMO at about Round 16 we changed it up a bit when we pushed Smedts forward, playing Stokes a bit further up the ground. We suddenly had someone applying a whole lot more pressure.

I think in 2013 it could be a whole lot better.

Smedts stronger and fitter patrolling deep inside 50. A fit Menzel instead of a hobbled Bartel and Motlop/Varcoe rotating through the forward line I think will be brilliant. Menzel has the same marking presence Bartel has but is a bit quicker and IMO applies more pressure.

 

[Senatorguesty]

I'm more excited about the improved balance and our ability to apply defensive pressure than the goal scoring capacity but IMO it won't be the forward line indicated in the OP.

FF: Smedts Hawkins Chapman
HF: Johnson Podsiadly Menzel

Varcoe & Motlop rotating through with the smalls, Vardy creating a mismatches and occasionally resting the talls.

For me one of the key weakness in 2012 was our ability to apply defensive pressure inside 50. I felt with Stokes, Chapman & a hobbled Bartel the small didn't apply enough pressure. IMO at about Round 16 we changed it up a bit when we pushed Smedts forward, playing Stokes a bit further up the ground. We suddenly had someone applying a whole lot more pressure.

I think in 2013 it could be a whole lot better.

Smedts stronger and fitter patrolling deep inside 50. A fit Menzel instead of a hobbled Bartel and Motlop/Varcoe rotating through the forward line I think will be brilliant. Menzel has the same marking presence Bartel has but is a bit quicker and IMO applies more pressure.

Good post and i agree, the goal kicking power there isnt a worry, its more about the pressure, which is also the midfielders role to push up and create that pressure forward of the ball.
If you told me we would finish 7th after losing the first week of the finals (and likely because they were thinking a week in advance) with Vardy, Varcoe and Menzel play almost zero games, Pods and Bartel being injured and a few guys out of form/suspended, I'd take it I reckon.
We could almost say we get 3 BIG recruits next year, 4 if you count Cowen (and rate his ability).

 

[Megaman123]

I cant see Vardy and Pods kicking 66 between them. I cant see these two playing in the same side if we get HMac, and I can see Pods transitioning out of the side as Mooney did in his last year, leaving Vardy to play the second key forward. I can also see someone like Kersten becoming more important next year as that 3rd tall option. I also worry about of midfield being able to get enough quality ball in there to allow for this enormous amount of goals to be scored. Hawthorn have a good foward line, but they also have a top quality midfield pumping a heap of footy in.

 

[Vdubs]

I cant see Vardy and Pods kicking 66 between them. I cant see these two playing in the same side if we get HMac, and I can see Pods transitioning out of the side as Mooney did in his last year, leaving Vardy to play the second key forward. I can also see someone like Kersten becoming more important next year as that 3rd tall option. I also worry about of midfield being able to get enough quality ball in there to allow for this enormous amount of goals to be scored. Hawthorn have a good foward line, but they also have a top quality midfield pumping a heap of footy in.

Spot on, Mitchell, Sewell, Lewis ALL get heaps of contested footy, we have Selwood. Maybe Kelly
But both Hawks/ Gee are ageing there, apart from Selwood, so we need to get more again out of Duncan, Stringer maybe, and somebody else, somebody unexpected perhaps.

 

[DanA]

Spot on, Mitchell, Sewell, Lewis ALL get heaps of contested footy, we have Selwood. Maybe Kelly
But both Hawks/ Gee are ageing there, apart from Selwood, so we need to get more again out of Duncan, Stringer maybe, and somebody else, somebody unexpected perhaps.

I'm a little more optimistic this year than last.

Outside midfielders: Mackie, Varcoe, Duncan, T-Hunt, Murdoch, Motlop
In: Varcoe
Out: Wojak

I'd have Mackie staying the same, Varcoe a significant boost compared to a barely used Wojak and the other four all improving.

Inside midfiedlers: Selwood, Kelly, Christenson, Bartel, Johnson, Caddy?, Horlin-Smith, Corey, draftee?
Out: None
In: Caddy?, Horlin-Smith

I really think we can improve if we get Bartel healthy and one of Horlin-Smith or Caddy (if we get him). Corey might continue to decline but we've got scope for improvement. I think the poor performance in the midfield had a lot to do with the ruck division though.

 

[ousitgarn]

Forward line is incredibly strong on paper but we need synergy and defensive pressure to make it great. We are still missing a Max Rooke type! Maybe Josh Walker can be that guy!

Vardy and Menzel just could be anything!

Eardley = (potential) future Max Rooke

 

[Vdubs]

Any news on Varcoe's current foot status?
Season's finished, but where is he at?
We have not heard much, mushrooms again?
What was the latest injury, is he right , finally, for a preseason?

 

[Turbocat]

Goals are a result of efficient use of opportunities. If our midfield can supply enough ball , we will kick enough goals.

 

[DanA]

Any news on Varcoe's current foot status?
Season's finished, but where is he at?
We have not heard much, mushrooms again?
What was the latest injury, is he right , finally, for a preseason?

Fully fit. It was a minor ankle injury he suffered. He'd be expected to do a full preseason now.

 

[footscore]

Forward line is incredibly strong on paper but we need synergy and defensive pressure to make it great. We are still missing a Max Rooke type! Maybe Josh Walker can be that guy!

Vardy and Menzel just could be anything!

I think what Smedts gave us this year is what you may be eluding to.
His defensive pressure was sensational and I really mean that.
For a fairly light framed person, he was able to create turnovers for a good month there until fatigue and a subsequent finger injury finished off his year.

He's about 6ft'3 in the old but his draft tests were very impressive...the agility is often brought up and it obviously played a part in him being able to close the gap on an opponent rather rapidly.
I think Smedts will play forward in 2013 along with Chappy, Johnson, Motlop and the other bigger bodies.
We will likely see Varcoe play off the half back flank and Menzel too may start down there in order to gain fitness and some much needed touch.

Simpson, Vardy, West will be fighting each other to improve which is healthy going into RD1

 

[Strangled Cat]

Does anyone think thst Kersten will be a significant feature in our forward line next year?

 

[Bastians]

Does anyone think thst Kersten will be a significant feature in our forward line next year?

Maybe the year after. Will get a game next year though you would hope. Im super excited about him though, he looks really good.