Discussion How low can we go?

[Persevering Saint]

Look, I'm reading a lot about culling big (Dal, Kosi, Joey, for heavens' sake!), and trading them for younger drafts. But what people seem to not be thinking about is that getting heaps of kids in will inevitably mean finishing low - their bodies will get pummelled early on, and they will not have the nous to win big. That's what happened to the Hawks - they were ridiculed for their pathetic efforts a few years back.

Now, look at yourself - if Ross does all this trading etc, are you willing to allow him to steer us to a bottom four position? If he does, will we be calling for his head? If so, I feel that is incredibly unfair to the bloke. I think that Ross has proven this year to be an absolutely incredible coach - he turned chook manure (our list, especially the bottom tier) into chocolate mousse (top 4 and a prelim) this year.

Personally, I don't think such a big clean out is necessary, so I think it's a mute point. Ross has already started blooding good quality youth, and his use of trades last year was exemplary. But if you ARE advocating this type of thing, well, are you willing to live with the pain for a few years, and still respect that Ross is a good coach.

 

[Zainta]

By the sounds of things, you have been sucked in by all the rumours swirling around. The club has said that Dal and Kosi (heaven knows where you got Joey from) are not leaving our club.

 

[Signd Sealed Saint]

well other footy clubs is a pretty good source of information to me. Clubs don't lie for absolutely no reason whatsoever.

 

[Persevering Saint]

You're missing the point. I DON'T think Dal etc will be traded, and I DON'T want them to be. My point is, all these people who ARE advocating it, are you willing to really pay the price - 22 long games over 2 or 3 seasons, where we suck?

 

[CHBench]

Don't think Kosi is quite safe yet.
I just think getting another 1st/2nd round pick would be beneficial to the club. We don't have much quality youth coming through and adding potentialy 3 kids from a 'super' draft will keep us a float in 5 years time.
Trading out one of Dal or Kosi won't cause the team to crash to the bottom 4.

 

[Squizz]

so I think it's a mute point.

Hey - easy on the mute people out there Percy.

I thought before the season that we could make the 8, and push the top 4 only if we had a good run with injury. Given injuries to X, Gardi, Gehrig, Baker, Ball, and Goose we did amazingly well in terms of where we finished on the ladder.

We have missed the boat in terms of previous years recruiting, so Ross had to weave some magic at the draft table last year. No doubt in my mind he delivered with Dempster, Schneider, and King (who all filled some of the holes the club had).

In terms of run and carry in recent years we have drafted :
Jack Stevens (still very young)
Eljay Connors (was injured even before we recruited him)
Miles (injured)
McQualter (probably not going to have a major impact at AFL level)
Armitage (still developing)
Howard (selected on athletic ability alone at pick 27)
Birss (not overly quick)
Jones (tick)
Geary (still developing)
Eddy (tick, albeit still developing)

So, out of these 10 players we should be realistic on what impact they will have at AFL level.

For mine, we will need to pick some good quick mids this year or potentially pay a price (unless we have limited injuries as we have a good first 22 to put on the park).

We also need to get a key defender to replace Max (can't put all our eggs in Goose unfortunately).

If we go with untested U/18s and they don't work out well....

I just think that Macca and Woody need to be given more exposure up forward, and can't see how this can be done with Kosi (who has a market value). And we should take the opportunity to get a pacy mid or defender if they are there next week.

 

[IllBeTheJudge]

well other footy clubs is a pretty good source of information to me. Clubs don't lie for absolutely no reason whatsoever.

so maybe there's a reason, like to unsettle a player like Kosi and make him think the club doesn't want him. It's as good a reason as any, just like saying Burns will play in the semi was for a reason

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Don't think Kosi is quite safe yet.
I just think getting another 1st/2nd round pick would be beneficial to the club. We don't have much quality youth coming through and adding potentialy 3 kids from a 'super' draft will keep us a float in 5 years time.
Trading out one of Dal or Kosi won't cause the team to crash to the bottom 4.

Kosi was a first round pick , so was McQualter, so was Fiora. What makes you think your new picks will be better.

 

[Signd Sealed Saint]

i think a KPB is #1 priority atm. Gilbert is doing well but he'll be monstered once Max goes, ala Zac Dawson. We either have to cop that and hope the new kid comes on, or get an immediate solution, maybe we can lure a chaplin to the club or someone else. Maguire is one of my favourite players but we can't rely on him anymore. After that we need some good midfielders, we have no depth in our midfiled whatsoever if Gram and BJ are only going to pinch hit. Hopefully they can both play in the midfiled next year, Dempster, Maguire, Gilbert, Hudgeton, Blake and Raph can take the backline while Gram and BJ go up the ground and possibly BJ could play as a lead up forward. After that a good lead up forward like ROK would be handy although he's not the option at 28. However if Sydney only want a player and a third or something, take him if possible.

I'd really like to see McEvoy and Allen spend more time forward next year. Hopefully Steven can come along, he's gonna be a ripper, Armitage needs more game time in the midddle, no point playing him in the forward line. He looks to be a beauty as well, once he gets more confidence i reckon he can be a great stepper from what I've seen.

 

[dg102]

I think your missing the point PS.
First of all. Swapping a few players like Dal and Kos for some really good quality kids doesnt mean that were heading for the bottom. Thats just absurd. Infact it means the opposite, means we could set us up for the future. Maybe we might get a Nattanui or the likes for a Kosi. Maybe the impact these kids will have next year and the year after might be a bigger impact than a Kosi or Dal would. Kos didnt exactly break records this year. These rookies coming into afl level these days are more ready to play afl straight away now than before. Look at Palmer, Rioli, the list goes on and on. We might get a good draft rookie for Dal as well, that might have better pace, more impact on the side aswell for the next couple years.
Look at the big picture and dont jump to conclusions. Too many players at our club are holding onto sentimental value.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

I think your missing the point PS.
First of all. Swapping a few players like Dal and Kos for some really good quality kids doesnt mean that were heading for the bottom. Thats just absurd. Infact it means the opposite, means we could set us up for the future. Maybe we might get a Nattanui or the likes for a Kosi. Maybe the impact these kids will have next year and the year after might be a bigger impact than a Kosi or Dal would. Kos didnt exactly break records this year. These rookies coming into afl level these days are more ready to play afl straight away now than before. Look at Palmer, Rioli, the list goes on and on. We might get a good draft rookie for Dal as well, that might have better pace, more impact on the side aswell for the next couple years.
Look at the big picture and dont jump to conclusions. Too many players at our club are holding onto sentimental value.

Spot on DG.

Our biggest problem IMO is that the kids we have outside of McEvoy & possibly Armo & Steven are not top liners. They will possibly be solid players but they do not have the exceptional talent that we need to support Roo, BJ, Bally, etc.

This draft is reportedly very good at the top end & solid throughout. At the present we have pick 13 which may get us a very good player but not the cream of the crop.

Personally I love Dal & Kosi. But I am a member of St Kilda & it is a passion of mine to too the club win a bloody flag. Some of the efforts from Dal & Kosi this year (and Joey for that matter) for whatever reasons have been very disappointing.

I think we have enough depth to cover the loss of one or two of them, bring top 5 quality draft picks to the club & not drop down the the bottom 4. Even if we do then I'm prepared for a step or 10 backwards if it means we can get the cream of the crop to the club & have a real crack at a flag while Roo, BJ, etc are still in their prime (Roo is 25 now so he realistically has another 4-5 years of top quality footy in him).

I don't take any stock in the club coming out now & stating blokes are 'required players'. What do you reckon they would say. "Oh yeah Dal has been sulking all year & we want to move him on". Any ability to get the absolute best deal is out the window.

I guarantee you that if we lose Dal and or Kosi & get a Daniel Rich/Michael Hurley like talent in return then we won't be missing Dal or Kosi in 3 years time.

 

[CHBench]

Kosi was a first round pick , so was McQualter, so was Fiora. What makes you think your new picks will be better.

Every club has it's flops but we have to take these chances or this list is going to stagnate. We need to get real about the quality of kids we have. Armitage is the only proven hope. The rest (McEvoy, Steven, Geary) we have nfi if they're going to be players.

 

[Persevering Saint]

I think your missing the point PS.
First of all. Swapping a few players like Dal and Kos for some really good quality kids doesnt mean that were heading for the bottom. Thats just absurd. Infact it means the opposite, means we could set us up for the future. Maybe we might get a Nattanui or the likes for a Kosi. Maybe the impact these kids will have next year and the year after might be a bigger impact than a Kosi or Dal would. Kos didnt exactly break records this year. These rookies coming into afl level these days are more ready to play afl straight away now than before. Look at Palmer, Rioli, the list goes on and on. We might get a good draft rookie for Dal as well, that might have better pace, more impact on the side aswell for the next couple years.
Look at the big picture and dont jump to conclusions. Too many players at our club are holding onto sentimental value.

In the LONG term, yeap, it COULD be great. But my question is, are you prepared for the years where we have to suffer through some "bad" years of alot of losses, in order to get to that? Let me paint the picture for you:

Dal and Kosi are traded, and we get a few first/second rounders for them. We start playing Macca, Armo, Howard, our new-draftees, no matter what. They get pummelled, because they are not yet mature physically and mentally. We get to 6-22 or something over the course of the first season. We get to about 1-11 in the first half of the next. Mike Sheahan, Dermott, Garry Lyon, and all the rest of them start saying how pathetic we've become. Rumours fly about the club going crazy, and being in need of mergers, etc.

Now, what will we do? Will we say, "Well, we have to go through this, this is part of those kids learning their craft, and Ross moulding them in his style, etc, etc..."? And will we trust that this is what we need to do for us to make the jump to Premiership material.

OR will we LYNCH the guy, LYNCH the club, crying, "Oh, WHY OH WHY did we get rid of Dal and Kosi for this bunch of losers!? Ross has taken our best away from us - IF ONLY Dal Santo was still here - now he's playing over at Essendon and getting 25 possies every game! Oh, what was ROSS thinking getting rid of HIM!?" Will our membership plummett from 30,000odd to 25,000ish?

Too many of us forget that the years before our beloved window of 04-05 were pretty darn cruddy, with bottom-four finishes, and calls for GT's head at every turn.

The person I most respect in this discussion so far is Winmar2Lockett - he's explicitly answered the question I'm posing:

Personally I love Dal & Kosi. But I am a member of St Kilda & it is a passion of mine to too the club win a bloody flag. Some of the efforts from Dal & Kosi this year (and Joey for that matter) for whatever reasons have been very disappointing.

I think we have enough depth to cover the loss of one or two of them, bring top 5 quality draft picks to the club & not drop down the the bottom 4. Even if we do then I'm prepared for a step or 10 backwards if it means we can get the cream of the crop to the club & have a real crack at a flag while Roo, BJ, etc are still in their prime (Roo is 25 now so he realistically has another 4-5 years of top quality footy in him).

 

[Squizz]

I'm not conceding we go backwards by trading Kosi, picking up a speedy mid or key back via trade (that allows Gram/BJ to stay as a mid), and playing Macca. He might get less touches initially than Kosi but will kick more than he misses and become a better player quicker. Also, if we invest more in those areas (speedy mids and key back) then BJ could be released forward - and he would be a far better option than Kosi or Macca.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Getting picks may or may not help the team.
Early picks can be great or not. I look at the players below and there is still a lot of luck involved.
Under the normal course of action the team most needing a good pick is more likely to get one. But does that mean it is worth trading a known good player for a chance?

Then there is the rookie draft with good players often being selected this way.
( Wonemirri , C Stokes, Wellingham )


Early picks from last year!

Kruezer - may or may not end up a better player than McEvoy too soon to say.
Cotchin - Looking good so far.
Masten - Playing well but Osteitis Pubis does not always get better.
Morton - Very good so far.

High Impact during 2880 - Palmer pick 7, Rioli pick 12.
Value pick: Craig Bird very good for pick 59

From 2006
Bryce Gibbs - OK so far.
Gumbleton - I dont know - is he injured?
Lachlan Hanson - Injury - do they play afl too young? -reasonably good player
Leuenberger - Going OK , Injury prone?
Impact in 2008 - Selwood pick 7, Dawes pick 28, Morton pick 33, Houli Pick 42, Reimers pick 47.

From 2005
Marc Murphy , Dale Thomas both making an impact
Xavier Ellis , OK but is he great?
Josh Kennedy , OK but is he great.

Standouts from 2005 in 2008
Pendlebury pick 5, Ibbotson pick 26, McKinley pick 29, Gilbert ( rising star points 2007) ,

To me it is bad enough blowing a first round pick on a Barry Brooks, but it is much worse if we have traded a good player for it.

I believe we should.
a) Only trade players who are surplus to the requirements of the team.
b) Make the best value of the draft picks we have. ( Not redraft Ferguson )
c) Take a punt with the Rookie draft. ( not redraft McQualter )
d) Do the above every year, and be reaonably ruthless with players who will never be above average, to make room.

 

[Plugger35]

In the LONG term, yeap, it COULD be great. But my question is, are you prepared for the years where we have to suffer through some "bad" years of alot of losses, in order to get to that? Let me paint the picture for you:

Dal and Kosi are traded, and we get a few first/second rounders for them. We start playing Macca, Armo, Howard, our new-draftees, no matter what. They get pummelled, because they are not yet mature physically and mentally. We get to 6-22 or something over the course of the first season. We get to about 1-11 in the first half of the next. Mike Sheahan, Dermott, Garry Lyon, and all the rest of them start saying how pathetic we've become. Rumours fly about the club going crazy, and being in need of mergers, etc.

I think your painting an overly pessimistic picture there. It's not as if trading one or two of our top players, such as Kosi or Dal, will lead to a Hawthorn style clean out where we bottom out for 3 or 4 years.

Besides that, a total clean out and rebuild isn't really necessary or desirable in our circumstances. The majority of our core group of players are still in the prime 22-28 age bracket and for the most part are all fairly high quality. Hawthorn on the other hand had a lot of older players 5 or 6 years ago and apart from Crawford they weren't all that good either. For them a clean out was necessary so that they could totally rebuild with youth.

In our circumstances we still have a core group of at least 10-15 high quality players so it is more a case of just renovating our list rather than totally rebuilding. That should really just involve making the odd shrewd trade here and there for experienced players to fill holes in the list, as Lyon did by recruiting Schneider, Dempster and King last year, and also gradually bringing through the young draftees.

Unless we get amazing deals for Kosi or Dal, ie. top line players and/or high first round draft picks, I'm not sure it is really all that wise to trade them anyway. Despite their inconsistency they are still high quality players in the right age bracket.

Kosi as a quality ruckman/forward would be particularly hard to replace, in the short term anyway, given the shortage of similar players around at the moment. You only have to look at the ridiculous amounts of money being thrown at Warnock, who was really only a part-time backup ruckman at Freo, to see how desperate other clubs are for quality big men.

 

[Zainta]

With everyone talking about a lead-up forward, why not Sam Fisher and Goddard? Sam played there in the last few games, and played well, while I am almost certain that BJ could play well in that position. With our backline consisting of Max, Bakes, Gilbo, Maguire, Dempster, Blake & Raph, why not shove Gram in the centre, and rotate Fish and Goddard as midfielder and lead-up forward.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

I really like the idea of Chips playing up forward, although he is so great across half back that you're losing a lot in the back half.

Getting Goose back fit & firing is so important. Goose holding down CHB, Max solid at FB & Gilbo really coming on will set the back 6 & allow Chips/BJ & Gram to play midfield & up forward.

I just don't see us falling too far back if Kosi isn't there. Of the two I'd keep Dal but if a top 5 pick comes available then I'd be very tempted.

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

Well Port are offering their number 4 pick apparently...

Can't see Dal wanting to move to Adelaide though...

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I really like the idea of Chips playing up forward, although he is so great across half back that you're losing a lot in the back half.

Getting Goose back fit & firing is so important. Goose holding down CHB, Max solid at FB & Gilbo really coming on will set the back 6 & allow Chips/BJ & Gram to play midfield & up forward.

I just don't see us falling too far back if Kosi isn't there. Of the two I'd keep Dal but if a top 5 pick comes available then I'd be very tempted.

And King taps to Hayes, long handball to Fisher , who kicks from 70, Goal!

 

[GoHawks1989]

get rid of kosi while he is still worth atleast a second round pick. Then draft players that are tough and hunt the ball (athletic ability should come secong). look at geelongs list. not that many great athletes eg ling, bartel, chapman but all very good footballers. dal santo has had his chance get rid of him

 

[St DAC]

Armitage is the only proven hope.

Jeez you're easily pleased. What exactly has he proven?

 

[St DAC]

get rid of kosi while he is still worth atleast a second round pick. Then draft players that are tough and hunt the ball (athletic ability should come secong). look at geelongs list. not that many great athletes eg ling, bartel, chapman but all very good footballers. dal santo has had his chance get rid of him

How bout you flock off back to your own board? Don't let the door hit you in the arse on the way out.

 

[CHBench]

Perhaps proven was the wrong word. But he's showing more signs than the rest. When your given limited game time you can only do so much.

 

[St DAC]

Perhaps proven was the wrong word. But he's showing more signs than the rest. When your given limited game time you can only do so much.

What signs?

He's hard at it, yes. Doesn't get enough possessions, kicks poorly, slow as treacle. We've already got a few blokes in those catagories.

I hope he comes on, I really do. He's still young, and has time, but the amount of hype about him compared to what he's actually delivered is astounding. He's been no better than Eddy, or Jones, or McQualter.