How many games will we win this year?

[Tex200]

In no way do I have a 'Woe is me' attitude. I just don't think we have that good of a list.

In absolutely no way does that diminish my support of the club. I am a fully paid member and will attend as many home games as I can.

Now of course anything can happen in a season. Almost every year there is an absolute bolter that has a great season after finishing near the bottom the previous year (2010 West Coast, 2012 Crows, 2013 Power). We could be that bolter again in 2014.

And to the bolded part. You would have to say that there are really 5 solid chances for the flag this year - which equals the best lists (Hawks,Freo,Swans, Geelong,Coll).

Then next are the mid-level teams -Kangas,Tigers, Bombers,Blues,Crows,Eagles,Port.

Then you have the bottom level teams with no realistic chance of a flag Bulldogs, Brisbane, St. Kilda, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne.

In what world is Geelong a solid flag chance this year?

 

[AFC979810]

In what world is Geelong a solid flag chance this year?

The world where they have made the finals every single year since 2007 (7 in a row). A world where they have finished top 4 in 6 out of 7 of these years. A world where they were 5 points away from beating the eventual premiers in a prelim (just last year).

A champion side like this, that has consistently challenged for the flag over the past 7 years has every right to be considered a flag favourite until their form actually shows otherwise.

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

The world where they have made the finals every single year since 2007 (7 in a row). A world where they have finished top 4 in 6 out of 7 of these years. A world where they were 5 points away from beating the eventual premiers in a prelim (just last year).

A champion side like this, that has consistently challenged for the flag over the past 7 years has every right to be considered a flag favourite until their form actually shows otherwise.

And in a world where they had there experienced premiership list in tact which thst clearly no longer have

Everything you have said Means nothing for this year

 

[AFC979810]

And in a world where they had there experienced premiership list in tact which thst clearly no longer have

Everything you have said Means nothing for this year

So were they a premiership threat in 2013? I would say they were.

Since then they lost Chapman, Corey, Hunt and Jpod. Not one of these players featured in the clubs top 10 B&F last year.

They also have a fit Varcoe/Macintosh to add to their best 22 (both had injury ravaged seasons in 2013) with some very talented youngsters that will cement their place in Geelongs best 22 this year Smedts, Caddy, Duncan.

This premiership list that isn't in tact still has 15 players which have played in a flag.

So - Geelong have an impeccable track record over the past 7 years - made the prelim last year - had 4 players,who are all returning, in the All Australian side plus a fit Tomahawk who was the All Australian Full forward in 2012. They have lost none of their top 10 players from last years best and fairest.

Would love to hear your reasoning as to why this year is suddenly the big decline of Geelong.

 

[Geoffa32]

So were they a premiership threat in 2013? I would say they were.

Since then they lost Chapman, Corey, Hunt and Jpod. Not one of these players featured in the clubs top 10 B&F last year.

They also have a fit Varcoe/Macintosh to add to their best 22 (both had injury ravaged seasons in 2013) with some very talented youngsters that will cement their place in Geelongs best 22 this year Smedts, Caddy, Duncan.

This premiership list that isn't in tact still has 15 players which have played in a flag.

So - Geelong have an impeccable track record over the past 7 years - made the prelim last year - had 4 players,who are all returning, in the All Australian side plus a fit Tomahawk who was the All Australian Full forward in 2012. They have lost none of their top 10 players from last years best and fairest.

Would love to hear your reasoning as to why this year is suddenly the big decline of Geelong.

Depends on how long Motlop and Christenson are out for. Both classy players who are big outs for them as they do real damage to the opposition. If they are missing for a lot of games early they may struggle a bit.

 

[AFC979810]

Depends on how long Motlop and Christenson are out for. Both classy players who are big outs for them as they do real damage to the opposition. If they are missing for a lot of games early they may struggle a bit.

Fair call.

Christenson hurts them, especially since he won't be back till late in the season.

Motlop will be back by about Rd 4-6. Was listed on the 24th of Feb as a 4-6 week so you would imagine that he would be back pretty soon (even if they ease him in through the 2's).

You would think both will be back for Geelongs push to the finals.

 

[Tex200]

Fair call.

Christenson hurts them, especially since he won't be back till late in the season.

Motlop will be back by about Rd 4-6. Was listed on the 24th of Feb as a 4-6 week so you would imagine that he would be back pretty soon (even if they ease him in through the 2's).

You would think both will be back for Geelongs push to the finals.[/quote
I've no doubt they will press for finals again - but flag favourite is over rating them IMO

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

So were they a premiership threat in 2013? I would say they were.

Since then they lost Chapman, Corey, Hunt and Jpod. Not one of these players featured in the clubs top 10 B&F last year.

They also have a fit Varcoe/Macintosh to add to their best 22 (both had injury ravaged seasons in 2013) with some very talented youngsters that will cement their place in Geelongs best 22 this year Smedts, Caddy, Duncan.

This premiership list that isn't in tact still has 15 players which have played in a flag.

So - Geelong have an impeccable track record over the past 7 years - made the prelim last year - had 4 players,who are all returning, in the All Australian side plus a fit Tomahawk who was the All Australian Full forward in 2012. They have lost none of their top 10 players from last years best and fairest.

Would love to hear your reasoning as to why this year is suddenly the big decline of Geelong.

They were a premiership threat in 2013 however this does not necessarily translate to 2014

The value of experience is not necessarily measured by B&F votes but more so by premiership points and time will tell however there comes a point in time where a loss of experience will have its impact and regardless of where the likes of Chappy, JPod and Hunt finished in the B&F they are big bodied experienced players that took pressure of the younger players which enabled them to come into a side and play their role, experience counts for plenty.

Varcoe and McIntosh, well Varcoe is no more than a front runner who has failed to stand up in big games and McIntosh won't even feature this year in the top 15 ruckmen

I'm not saying for one minute the Cats will bottom out however I don't consider them to be a premiership threat in 2014

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

Fair call.

Christenson hurts them, especially since he won't be back till late in the season.

Motlop will be back by about Rd 4-6. Was listed on the 24th of Feb as a 4-6 week so you would imagine that he would be back pretty soon (even if they ease him in through the 2's).

You would think both will be back for Geelongs push to the finals.

Motlop will be back closer to the mid season break

 

[AFC979810]

They were a premiership threat in 2013 however this does not necessarily translate to 2014

The value of experience is not necessarily measured by B&F votes but more so by premiership points and time will tell however there comes a point in time where a loss of experience will have its impact and regardless of where the likes of Chappy, JPod and Hunt finished in the B&F they are big bodied experienced players that took pressure of the younger players which enabled them to come into a side and play their role, experience counts for plenty.

Varcoe and McIntosh, well Varcoe is no more than a front runner who has failed to stand up in big games and McIntosh won't even feature this year in the top 15 ruckmen

I'm not saying for one minute the Cats will bottom out however I don't consider them to be a premiership threat in 2014

Fair enough.

Think we must watch completely different AFL games. If you think Varcoe is a front runner, you might want to have a peek at the 2011 Grand Final. 21 disposals, 3 goals, 2 goal assists and 4 Inside 50's. You don't perform like this on the biggest stage if you are a front runner.

 

[Mike Smyth]

Correct. You would think that people who follow the Crows closely enough to post on this board would have seen enough to know we have a mid-level list.

Our premiership window was open/opening then closed inch by inch with the lose of Bock, then Davis and then Gunston. It slammed completely shut when Tippett walked out the door. At the end of this year we will require quality midfield depth, 2 tall defenders, 2 tall forwards (assuming Tex is fully fit) and a quality backup ruckman. We can only hope that those players are on our list now.

 

[AFC979810]

Our premiership window was open/opening then closed inch by inch with the lose of Bock, then Davis and then Gunston. It slammed completely shut when Tippett walked out the door. At the end of this year we will require quality midfield depth, 2 tall defenders, 2 tall forwards (assuming Tex is fully fit) and a quality backup ruckman. We can only hope that those players are on our list now.

.

Agree with everything except needing 2 tall defenders. I think one of Hartigan/Siggins will eventually be able to replace Rutten which will take care of our KPD depth.

Somehow this preseason we need to somehow grab a KPF and another Ruckman who will either become or is best 22 material.

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

Fair enough.

Think we must watch completely different AFL games. If you think Varcoe is a front runner, you might want to have a peek at the 2011 Grand Final. 21 disposals, 3 goals, 2 goal assists and 4 Inside 50's. You don't perform like this on the biggest stage if you are a front runner.

Didn't Geelong win the 2012 GF easily, doesn't front runner mean that you play well when the chips are in your favour

Geelong must think he is a front runner and expendiable as they desperately wanted to trade him last year with no takers, 1. Because he has a soft underbelly, and 2. He has had his fair share of issues off field

Reading the Geelong board last year it did seem that the majority of their Bigfooty members wanted Varcoe traded out, I'm comfortable with my position on him

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

Our premiership window was open/opening then closed inch by inch with the lose of Bock, then Davis and then Gunston. It slammed completely shut when Tippett walked out the door. At the end of this year we will require quality midfield depth, 2 tall defenders, 2 tall forwards (assuming Tex is fully fit) and a quality backup ruckman. We can only hope that those players are on our list now.

Davis hasn't hurt us, the opposite as Talia development would not have accelerated if Davis remained

IMO Davis is one of the most over-rated afl footballers, he has not put on the size required to man up against the Cloke like KPF not to mention that his decision making and execution under pressure constantly leaves your heart in your mouth

Bock, we got the best out of Bock and the Suns got an injury prone player

Gunna, this is the one that hurt us and would have made us a better side

 

[Mike Smyth]

.

Agree with everything except needing 2 tall defenders. I think one of Hartigan/Siggins will eventually be able to replace Rutten which will take care of our KPD depth.

Somehow this preseason we need to somehow grab a KPF and another Ruckman who will either become or is best 22 material.

Only going by what i've seen on youtube (i haven't seen him live ) but I have a good feeling about Siggins.

 

[Mike Smyth]

Davis hasn't hurt us, the opposite as Talia development would not have accelerated if Davis remained

IMO Davis is one of the most over-rated afl footballers, he has not put on the size required to man up against the Cloke like KPF not to mention that his decision making and execution under pressure constantly leaves your heart in your mouth

Bock, we got the best out of Bock and the Suns got an injury prone player

Gunna, this is the one that hurt us and would have made us a better side

I disagree re Davis but I see your point. Even if he is just a handy player he adds something that we seriously lack and that's big man depth. We were a kick away from playing in a GF in 2012. IMO throw in Bock, Davis and gunston and we are playing GF day.

 

[Mattrox]

Our premiership window was open/opening then closed inch by inch with the lose of Bock, then Davis and then Gunston. It slammed completely shut when Tippett walked out the door. At the end of this year we will require quality midfield depth, 2 tall defenders, 2 tall forwards (assuming Tex is fully fit) and a quality backup ruckman. We can only hope that those players are on our list now.

That's bullshit and you know it. Bock had been injured riddled since he left having not much impact.

Davis was a promising youngster, but Talia is so far in front of him it is not funny.

Gunston leaving hurt, but we are really only going to see that this year and next. Him leaving didn't shut the immediate premiership window.

Tippett leaving hurt. That was always going to be hard to cover. Our window was shut with Tex getting injured compounded with our playing young list (age of the sides we put on the park). Losing 2 kpfs at once is what killed us.

By the end of the year we were able to work around the problems somewhat effectively.

Adding Betts to the side effectively addresses the goals we lost with Tippett's departure. I'm not sayong the window is wide open, but it isn't shut either.

Sent from my GT-I9295 using Tapatalk

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

I personally don't believe in the premiership window theory

 

[Mike Smyth]

That's bullshit and you know it. Bock had been injured riddled since he left having not much impact.

Davis was a promising youngster, but Talia is so far in front of him it is not funny.

Gunston leaving hurt, but we are really only going to see that this year and next. Him leaving didn't shut the immediate premiership window.

Tippett leaving hurt. That was always going to be hard to cover. Our window was shut with Tex getting injured compounded with our playing young list (age of the sides we put on the park). Losing 2 kpfs at once is what killed us.

By the end of the year we were able to work around the problems somewhat effectively.

Adding Betts to the side effectively addresses the goals we lost with Tippett's departure. I'm not sayong the window is wide open, but it isn't shut either.

Sent from my GT-I9295 using Tapatalk

We lost Bock, Davis, Gunston and Tippett and replaced them with Talia, Hartigan, J-pod and McKernan or Jenkins. I know which 4 I would prefer with apologies to Talia..

Imagine Davis, Talia, Gunston and Tippett - wow. That's a big man department you go deep in Sep with.

 

[Mike Smyth]

I personally don't believe in the premiership window theory

Seriously??

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

Seriously??

Absolutely how many so called experts had our premiership window open entering 1997, suddenly Ports premiership window is open however 12 months ago experts had them at 1am and if they have a poor year it will be suddenly closed as quickly as it opened

Again how many had our window open in 2012 and even given a poor 2013 that can be rectified quickly it makes no logical sense that some have our window as closed given that we were a quick away from the GF some 18 months ago and the profile of our list is much better now than it was then

Footy is footy, there has always been top teams, bottom teams, teams on the rise, teams that come from nowhere and teams that rapidly decline with little warning and there has always been an element of luck and unpredictability that for me makes predicting premiership windows very subjective

 

[Mattrox]

We lost Bock, Davis, Gunston and Tippett and replaced them with Talia, Hartigan, J-pod and McKernan or Jenkins. I know which 4 I would prefer with apologies to Talia..

Imagine Davis, Talia, Gunston and Tippett - wow. That's a big man department you go deep in Sep with.

Bock last played for us in 2010. Davis and Gunston last played for us in 2011. We made the prelim in 2012.
Your theory stinks.

Guntson walking out on us WILL hurt.

Tippett and Walker is what DID hurt last year.

Sent from my GT-I9295 using Tapatalk

 

[Mike Smyth]

Bock last played for us in 2010. Davis and Gunston last played for us in 2011. We made the prelim in 2012.
Your theory stinks.

Guntson walking out on us WILL hurt.

Tippett and Walker is what DID hurt last year.

Sent from my GT-I9295 using Tapatalk

So do you agree if we add Gunston, Bock and Davis to the 2012 prelim final team we would have played in the GF - Yes or No..?? It's rhetorical, only a fool would say no. Which leads back to my original point (yawn) that the loss of these players has cost/will cost us at least a GF appearance.

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

Shane Crawford in a Herald Sun article has us finishing 8th with Essendon, Carlton, Collingwood and Port all finishing outside of the top 8

 

[Mattrox]

So you don't believe if we add Gunston, Bock and Davis to the 2012 prelim final team we wouldn't have played in the GF - Yes or No..?? It's rhetorical, only a fool would say No. Which leads back to my original point (yawn) that the loss of these players has cost/will cost us at least a GF appearance.

It's a nonsense question. Bock would have been injured like Talia was. Let's say Talia moved infront of Davis, you would take Davis over L. Thompson any day but would he have made the difference? If Talia weren't injured we might have won too.

We had Tippett and Tex in 2012. Gunston may not have played that game. Besides which, he showed in the 2012 gf he wasn't quite up to big game standard. In '13 he stepped up a lot. This year and next we will see him hit his straps.

You are mixing up time frames about player's worth to the team.

Sent from my GT-I9295 using Tapatalk